Hillsborough County Population and Employment Projections and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Hillsborough County Population and Employment Projections and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 26, 2022 133 likes •557 views

Hillsborough County Population and Employment Projections and Allocations DECEMBER 2017 Presentation Overview Overview of the Allocation Process Population and Employment Projections Trend Analysis 2045 Trend and Scenario

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Hillsborough County Population and Employment Projections and Allocations

DECEMBER 2017

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SLIDE 2

2045 Population and Employment Projections

Presentation Overview

  • Overview of the Allocation Process
  • Population and Employment Projections
  • Trend Analysis
  • 2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis
  • Next Steps
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SLIDE 3

Overview of the Allocation Process

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Population and Employment Allocation

  • Update the projections, horizon date and underlying assumptions
  • Understand recent demographic trends and how they may impact

Hillsborough County in the future

  • Grounded in a real estate market analysis
  • Look at scenarios of how policy and infrastructure changes impact where

population and jobs go

  • Input from all 4 local governments throughout
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SLIDE 5

2045 Population and Employment Projections

Results

  • Trend analysis of demographic shifts and market and real estate forecasts
  • Assessment of scenarios for whether they achieve our goals:
  • Quality of Life
  • Fiscal Sustainability
  • Economic prosperity
  • Responsible Growth
  • Consistency of Action
  • Updated population and job projections to be utilized for future planning

efforts

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Population and Employment Allocation

Where will growth go? What is the trend? How much will we grow? Where do we want growth to go? What facilities will be needed?

Population & Employment Projections Alternative Allocation Scenarios

How will different infrastructure and policy decisions impact that trend?

Trend and Market Analysis Hybrid Scenario Comprehensive Plan MPO LRTP Master Plans CIP

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SLIDE 7

Population and Employment Projections

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Control Totals

  • Projected population and employment for 2045 as well as interim

years

  • Allows us to compare different scenarios in a uniform way
  • Can we accommodate that growth? Do we want to? How? Where?
  • Conditions change = plans and projections change
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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Population

1,300,000 1,500,000 1,700,000 1,900,000 2,100,000 2,300,000 2,500,000 2,700,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045

Population

2045 Population Projections

BEBR Low BEBR Medium BEBR High W & P

2,474,800 2,140,363 2,007,100 1,562,000

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Shorter Term Projections

2020 2025 2030 BEBR 1,466,900 1,602,900 1,722,900 W&P 1,466,512 1,593,378 1,727,334

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SLIDE 11

2045 Population and Employment Projections

Employment

850,000 950,000 1,050,000 1,150,000 1,250,000 1,350,000 1,450,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045

Employment

2045 Employment Projections

0.61 0.58 W&P

1,376,519 1,224,331 1,164,118

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Trend Analysis

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Trend Analysis

  • Based on historical growth trend
  • Follows Future Land Use Plan/Map
  • Supported by building permit data
  • Considers latest demographic data
  • Real estate market analysis consultant review
  • Draft data/maps attached
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2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

2045 Trend and Scenario Analysis

  • What do you want to get out of it?
  • Test and update assumptions from Imagine 2040
  • Test impact of different infrastructure decisions
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SLIDE 16

Next Steps

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Timeline

  • Trend and Market Analysis – early 2018
  • Alternative Scenarios – Spring 2018
  • Outreach – Summer 2018
  • Hybrid Scenario – Fall 2018
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Attachments –

Draft Trend Analysis Maps

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SLIDE 19

2045 Population and Employment Projections

Land Use Trends

Developed land: 1960

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Land Use Trends

Developed land: 1970

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Land Use Trends

Developed land: 1980

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Land Use Trends

Developed land: 1990

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Land Use Trends

Developed land: 2000

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Land Use Trends

Developed land: 2010

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Land Use Trends

Developed land: Present

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Agricultural 25% Commercial 2% Industrial 7% Government‐ Owned 26% Multi‐Family Residential 3% Office 1% Park / Open Space 6% Right of Way 1% Single Family Residential 21% Vacant 8%

Land Use Trends

County Land Use

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Residential: Key Findings

  • Steady, continuous growth
  • Trend toward smaller lot sizes
  • Unit type balance remains constant
  • Seasonal housing is concentrated in the south
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SLIDE 28

2045 Population and Employment Projections

Residential Growth Trends

Dwelling Units

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 460,000 470,000 480,000 490,000 500,000 510,000 520,000 530,000 540,000 550,000 560,000

Dwelling Units

DU Growth Since 2005

1.14% Annual Average Growth

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005‐2015 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates

12% Increase from 2005 – 2015

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Housing Type

Residential Growth Trends

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011‐2015 American Community Survey 5‐ Year Estimates

Single‐ Family 56% Single‐ Family Attached 7% Mobile Home or Other 8% Multi‐ Family 29%

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Residential Growth Trends

Housing Type

56.3% 29.1% 9.0% 5.6% 56.2% 29.4% 7.7% 6.7% Single‐Family Multi‐Family Mobile Home or Other Single‐Family Attached 2005 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011‐2015 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Residential Growth Trends

Single‐Family Residential Lot Size ‐ Countywide

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

0.66 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.56 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Present Acres

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Employment and Activities: Key Findings

  • Bulk of employment is in professional, office, services, retail
  • Strong growth in employment since 2010
  • Strong growth in floor space since 2000, leveling off in 2010
  • Employee space utilization is becoming more efficient
  • FAR has leveled off
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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Employment Growth Trends

Total Employment

472,100 115,100 84,200 585,800 149,600 86,100

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000

Office + Commercial Industrial Institutional

Total Employment

2010 2015

Census Bureau, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Heated square footage reported in Hillsborough County Property Appraiser parcel database.

24% increase 30% increase 2% increase

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Employment Growth Trends

Floor Area (millions of square feet)

48.4 65.4 86.0 80.8 58.5 80.2 100.5 101.6 60.5 83.6 103.8 104.2 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0

Office Commercial Industrial Institutional

Floor Area (millions of square feet)

2000 2010 2017

Census Bureau, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Heated square footage reported in Hillsborough County Property Appraiser parcel database.

25% increase 28% increase 21% increase 29% increase

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Employment Growth Trends

Non‐Residential Intensity (FAR)

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Employment Growth Trends

Commercial Character

Source: Hillsborough County MPO

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

  • Hillsborough population share is stable
  • Pasco’s share is growing, Pinellas declining
  • The county is trending older
  • Much larger share of millennials in multi‐family housing
  • Average household size on a slight decline
  • Significant patterns in student enrollment (suburban), zero‐car

households (urban)

Population and Demographic Trends: Key Findings

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

‐ 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Under 18 18 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 64 65 and Over

Population and Demographic Trends

Age Cohorts

Source: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 (Machine‐readable database), Minneapolis, Minnesota: Minnesota Population Center (producer and distributor), 2010. and BEBR
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2045 Population and Employment Projections

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Under 18 18 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 49 50 ‐ 64 65 and Over 1985 2015 2045

Source: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 (Machine‐readable database), Minneapolis, Minnesota: Minnesota Population Center (producer and distributor), 2010. and BEBR

Population and Demographic Trends

Age Cohorts

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2045 Population and Employment Projections

6% 7% 7% 4% 19% 21% 21% 15% 8% 7% 5% 4% 38% 20% 12% 7%

Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 17 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 ‐ 64 65 and Up

Single‐Family Multi‐Family

Population and Demographic Trends

Age Cohorts by Housing Type

Source: Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 (Machine‐readable database), Minneapolis, Minnesota: Minnesota Population Center (producer and distributor), 2010. and BEBR
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2045 Population and Employment Projections

Population and Demographic Trends

Commute Characteristics

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011‐2015 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates