[PPT] - Employment Proj ections Models ILO Employment Trends Port of Spain PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Employment Proj ections Models

ILO Employment Trends Port of Spain –November 2011

SLIDE 2

Obj ectives of training module j g

Introduction to employment projections done by

the ILO Employment Trends Unit the ILO Employment Trends Unit

Getting an overview of the main principles of the

methodology used methodology used

See a practical application (here: Mongolia)
Get to know requirements and data input

Get to know requirements and data input

SLIDE 3

Overview

Background, objectives and data requirements
Sectoral structure and Input/Output table
Model set-up and solution
Preliminary results for Mongolia
Preliminary results at the Industry level
Some considerations regarding Trinidad

SLIDE 4

Objectives, background and data requirements

SLIDE 5

Obj ti / ti l li ti f Obj ectives/ practical applications of employment proj ection models

Planning for structural change, anticipating labour

requirements P d i / i l i ( f l l i )

Produce scenarios/simulations (counterfactual analysis)

▫ Produce alternate projections based on different assumptions i f i h k ▫ Assess impact of exogenous economic shocks ▫ Evaluate policy measures

Provide a consistent framework:

to analyse economic structure and linkages assess underlying assumptions of economic forecasts

Assembling a database of economic and social data for

b g b analysis

SLIDE 6

Background

Overview of different methodologies

ILO Employment Trends’ method

ILO Employment Trends method
Landmark publications:

▫ Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM) ▫ Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM) ▫ Global Employment Trends (GET)

Employment Targeting

Employment Targeting

Capacity Building

SLIDE 7

Available methodologies I g

Sectoral vs. aggregate models
Dynamic vs. static models
General equilibrium vs. statistical

Ge e a equ b u s s a s ca models

SLIDE 8

Available methodologies II g

Use of different methodologies depends on

▫ Availability of data ▫ Availability of data ▫ Purpose of projection ▫ Numerical capacity at hand Numerical capacity at hand ▫ Timeframe to set up a projection ▫ Frequency of use

SLIDE 9

Available methodologies III g

Dynamic models typically most time-intensive:

▫ Use large amount of numerical capacity ▫ Use large amount of numerical capacity ▫ Require important set-up costs ▫ Require “confidence” in model Require confidence in model

But:

▫ Give dynamically consistent results ▫ Allow to integrate intertemporal effects (“ i ”) (“expectations”)

SLIDE 10

Available methodologies IV g

Sectoral models

▫ Are typically set up in a static context ▫ Are typically set up in a static context ▫ Allow comparisons “Before” – “After” ▫ Can be combined with GDP projections to get Can be combined with GDP projections to get sectoral projections ▫ Can be used to make occupational and skill forecasts

SLIDE 11

Available methodologies V g

General equilibrium models:

▫ Require setting up a fully specified model ▫ Require setting up a fully specified model, including behavioural equations ▫ Can be used both for dynamic (DSGE) and for b b y ( ) sectoral models (CGE) ▫ Are computationally intensive ▫ Are difficult to estimate

But:

All f li i ▫ Allow for policy comparisons

SLIDE 12

Available methodologies VI g

What do I need?

▫ Time horizon of projection? ▫ Time horizon of projection? ▫ Analysis of different policy scenarios? ▫ Detail of labour market assessment Detail of labour market assessment (unemployment vs. sectoral labour demand)

What capacity do I have?

▫ Small team with short implementation period? ▫ Large, specialised team with input from external lt t ? consultants?

SLIDE 13

SLIDE 14

Dynamic models I y

All variables are endogenous:

▫ Consumption ▫ Consumption ▫ Labour demand and supply ▫ Investment Investment ▫ Trade

A behavioural rule needs to be defined

▫ Optimal decision process (maximization under constraints) i i (i l i i i ) ▫ Constant propensities (i.e. constant elasticities)

SLIDE 15

Dynamic models II y

Most commonly used set-up: DSGE (Dynamic

stochastic general equilibrium) stochastic general equilibrium)

Basic set-up

▫ Representative consumer: Maximizes utility by Representative consumer: Maximizes utility by choosing consumption conditional on a dynamic asset equation ▫ Firms choose labour and (sometimes) capital ▫ Models differ regarding (degree of) price and wage flexibility flexibility

SLIDE 16

Dynamic models III y

Recent developments

▫ Integrate labour market flows into DSGE ▫ Integrate labour market flows into DSGE modelling ▫ Accounts for employment adjustment costs at the p y j firm level… ▫ …for instance due to hiring and firing costs ▫ …and allows for different types of wage bargaining (at the firm or sectoral level, with persistence, etc.)

SLIDE 17

Dynamic models: An application I y pp

What will be the impact of increases in

unemployment benefits on employment? unemployment benefits on employment?

Typical DSGE question because:

▫ Implies policy changes and individual reactions Implies policy changes and individual reactions ▫ Requires dynamic interactions and expectation effects ▫ Long-term effects that play through different transmission channels (wages, taxes, public deficits etc ) deficits, etc.)

SLIDE 18

Dynamic models: An application II y pp

Set-up of a DSGE model with unemployment

benefits benefits

0.8 1.0 rate brium in %) 2 0.4 0.6 Unemployment viation from equilib 0.0 0.2 (dev 10 20 30 40 Quarters after shock No benefits Small benefits Large benefits

SLIDE 19

SLIDE 20

Background of the work on ILO’s Background of the work on ILO s employment proj ections

Cooperation between ILO Trends (Geneva)

and Inforum (University of Maryland) to and Inforum (University of Maryland) to develop ‘interindustry macroeconomic models’’

Employment projection models developed

p y p j p for: Ukraine, Mongolia, Viet Nam, Philippines

SLIDE 21

U / bj ti f l t Use/ obj ectives of employment proj ection models

Economic development plans, strategic planning

and employment targeting

▫ Planning for structural change, anticipating labour requirements ▫ Produce alternate projections based on different p j assumptions ▫ Set employment targets and measure progress towards reaching them reaching them

Policy responses to economic crises

A i t f i h k ▫ Assess impact of exogenous economic shocks

SLIDE 22

Practical applications pp

Assembling a database of economic and social

data for analysis as part of an LMIA system data for analysis as part of an LMIA system

Provide a consistent framework:

to analyse economic structure and linkages to analyse economic structure and linkages assess underlying assumptions of economic forecasts

Produce scenarios/simulations (counterfactual

analysis)

SLIDE 23

Model characteristics

Developed for limited resources environment/

limited data availability limited data availability

In Stata: accessible, user friendly
Scalable/ sustainable:
Scalable/ sustainable:

Capacity building: countries should be able to develop, maintain, improve the models p p

SLIDE 24

Model specification & features

Level of sophistication depends primarily on

data availability/quality, time and resources available available

Every economy has its own structure/

characteristics/ data specificities

Limited capability to predict GDP and its

components: Growth and expenditure patterns determined largely through exogenous determined largely through exogenous assumptions

Can be updated, scaled (upgraded) as more data

p , ( pg ) becomes available

SLIDE 25

Model features

Limited capability to predict GDP and its

components: Growth and expenditure patterns determined largely through exogenous determined largely through exogenous assumptions

Allow for scenario modelling
Can be updated, scaled (upgraded) as more data

becomes available C b d l d f h i f i

Can be developed further into forecasting

models, even dynamic general equilibrium models models

SLIDE 26

D id i Data considerations

Data availability

Sometimes, missing data imputed, taken from another country with similar economic/labour market structure structure

Data consistency and accuracy

Break in data series due to changes to base year, or conceptual definitions conceptual definitions Different data from different sources within the country d d h d l i dj d k Standard methodologies to adjust data, make estimates consistent with aggregates or with published data, etc.

SLIDE 27

Data Requirements

Time series: Time series: 1. GDP by sector, current and constant prices (Supply) 2. GDP by expenditure, current and constant prices (D d) (Demand) 3. Gross output by sector 4. Employment by sector p y y 5. Total population and economically active population For one or more years: For one or more years: 6. Input-output table 7. Sectoral employment-occupation matrix

SLIDE 28

Key concepts for employment projections

SLIDE 29

bl bl k Input – Output Tables: 3 maj or blocks

Supplier/ Buyer Output Final Demand Vectors Industries pp / y p C G I X M Intermediate Flows ndustries Matrix di d d I Intermediate demand L comp K income D i i e added ponents Depreciation Indirect taxes Total Value Added value comp Output

SLIDE 30

Interpretation of IO Flow Tables p

Along row: sales of industry to other industries

and to final demands and to final demands

‘Diagonals’: sales of an industry to itself
Down column: input from other industries
Down column: input from other industries

needed for an industry to produce its product

Intermediate purchases

p

In producer (basic) prices
Commerce and transport margins

p g

SLIDE 31

IO Relationships

Sum of intermediate purchase for all industries (C)

= sum of intermediate demand for all industries (X) f i d i f

Sum of Rowsum across industries – X = Sum of

Final demand (D)

Sum of Colsum across industries – C = Sum of Value
Sum of Colsum across industries – C = Sum of Value

Added (V)

Note:

▫ Rowsum = Colsum = Gross output for each industry ▫ C= X = sum of intermediate flows

Th f D V GDP

Therefore: D = V = GDP

SLIDE 32

C l l ti GDP 3 th ti l Calculating GDP: 3 theoretical approaches

Product approach: sum of market value of goods

and services produced

Expenditure approach: final spending on goods

and services C G I X M C + G + I + X – M

Income approach: sum of income received by

production factors production factors L income + K income – indirect taxes - dep

SLIDE 33

Input Output Equations: the Input-Output Equations: the Fundamental Theorem

Question: ‘w hat w ould the output, value added,

and interm ediate flow s have been, if the final and interm ediate flow s have been, if the final dem ands w ere different?’

Answer: use ratio of each input that industry

p y uses to that industry’s output

▫ ‘Input-output coefficients’ or technical coefficients ▫ Note: Assumption that these ratios (coefficients) stay constant when final demands change stay constant when final demands change

SLIDE 34

Input-Output Equations: the Fundamental Theorem

IO identity Equation:

where: where:

A: the matrix of IO coefficients ( ) q: output vector q: output vector f : the final demand vector

SLIDE 35

S

lving Input – Output Equation

Leontief Inverse of A -Matrix

SLIDE 36

Value added components p

Question: ‘how m uch of a prim ary input, e.g.

labour or capital is needed to produce a given labour or capital is needed to produce a given final dem and?’

Answer: use ratio of factor payment for a

Answer: use ratio of factor payment for a resource used in an industry to that industry’s

utput

▫ Similar to input-output ratios, we have ‘resource coefficient ratios’

SLIDE 37

Value added per unit and prices

Value-added per unit vector (v) obtained by

summing rows of R Matrix (matrix of resource ffi i t ) coefficients)

In any given IO table, the price vector p, that

satisfies the following identity has all elements equal satisfies the following identity has all elements equal to 1:

Key equations for knowing how changes in wages or

d ti it i l i d t i ff t i productivity in one or several industries affect prices

SLIDE 38

Key IO Relationship y p

Given any A-matrix, f vector, and v vector, the
utput vector (q) and price vector (p) that satisfy
utput vector (q) and price vector (p) that satisfy

the above identities also satisfy:

Interpretation: ‘value of final demands evaluated

p at the prices implied here are equal to the payments to the resources necessary to produce the final demands’

SLIDE 39

Theory and practice

SLIDE 40

Model Flow Diagram g

Source: Inforum/University of Maryland, Report for the ILO, Constructing Industry Em ploym ent and Occupational Projection Models, 2010

SLIDE 41

S 1 S l S id S tep 1. S upply S ide

S l id t i t ‘ t ti l l

Supply-side constraint: ‘potential supply or

gross output supplied’

Similar to ‘potential GDP’
Similar to potential GDP
Often modelled in terms of gross output by

sector sector

Example: potential supply of manufacturing

btained from industry’s K/Y ratio and the

previous period’ capital

Used in determining domestic prices

SLIDE 42

Real value added vs. Real gross output

Real value added:

Equals (real gross output – real input) R fl t h i t h l i t i d t Reflects changes in technology, input use, industry terms of trade: ca n ha v e v ery d ifferent grow th ra te tha n rea l gross outp ut

Real gross output:

Equals industry (or product) shipment revenue deflated by its specific price index y p p Better proxy for output volum e Gross output/ em ploym ent ratio better indicator of labour productivity labour productivity

SLIDE 43

S 2 D d S id S tep 2. Demand S ide

GDP C + G + I + X M GDP = C + G + I + X – M

C: Personal Consumption Expenditure or

Fi d C i E di f H h ld Fixed Consumption Expenditure of Households (FCEH)

G: Government Consumption Expenditure or Fixed

C i E di f G Consumption Expenditure of Government (FCEH)

I: Investment or Gross Capital Formation (GCF)

i l d fi d i d h i includes fixed investment and change in inventories

X: Exports (EXP)
M: Imports (IMP)

SLIDE 44

S t 3 IO Id tit S tep 3. IO Identity

Once (constant price) final demand is computed, Once (constant price) final demand is computed, input-output identity is used to translate final demand into gross output per sector where, q: gross output vector f: final demands vector A: matrix of input-output coefficients I: identity matrix

SLIDE 45

S tep 4. S upply/ Demand Balance

O

Output gap:

(gross output demand – gross output supply) x 100 (gross output demand gross output supply) x 100 gross output demand

Measures ‘tightness’ or conversely ‘slack’

in an economy GDP h d il bl

GDP gap when output data not available
Used in determination of prices and

f i t d foreign trade

SLIDE 46

Output gap and price determination

(+)

utput

Excess demand (↑) domestic (↓) competitiveness (↓) exports and (↑) gap demand prices and real income and (↑) imports (-)

utput

gap Excess supply (↓) domestic prices (↑) competitiveness and real income (↑) exports and (↓) imports g p imports

SLIDE 47

S tep 5. Employment by Industry

Employment by industry is computed as a

function of output and labour productivity: function of output and labour productivity: Emp = Out/Prod p /

Labour productivity:

▫ usually forecasted exogenously from extrapolating historical trends into the future S ti dditi l i f ti / j d t ▫ Sometimes use additional information/ judgment

SLIDE 48

S tep 6. Employment by Occupation p p y y p

Industry-occupation matrix used along with

employment by sector to obtain employment by employment by sector to obtain employment by

ccupation

SLIDE 49

S tep 7. Price determination

Domestic price and import deflators are
projected. Example:

Domestic prices (GDP deflator) as a function of the output gap and maybe unemployment, and a time trend time trend Import prices (Imports deflator) as a function of an index of foreign prices and the exchange rate g p g

Weighted price index of the two deflators is

constructed to derive final demand prices

SLIDE 50

S tep 8. Closing the loop

Results from price determination equations used

in:

determining nominal and real income variables (national and household income, balance of t ) payments) computing final demand (exports and imports) for following year following year

Annual loop is closed, and the model proceeds to

the following year. g y

SLIDE 51

S

lving the Input-Output Equations
In practice, Leontief Inverse rarely used
Instead, use iterative solutions to input-output

, p p equations, or ‘methods of successive approximation’

Inforum models use process called ‘Seidel’ to

solve input-output equations

SLIDE 52

Th S id l P It ti l ti The S eidel Process: Iterative solution

f Input-Output Equations
First approximation:

▫ use previous year’s output vector

Second approximation:

▫ using A-matrix, and current period final demand solve for q1 holding all other q’s constant solve for q1, holding all other q s constant ▫ Using this new q1, and previous values of q3 to qn, solve for q2 Th i d i l f ▫ Then using new q1, q2, and previous values of q4 to qn, solve for q3 ▫ And so on until qn (until all industries outputs are

o

q (

p

solved for)

SLIDE 53

S

lving for industry’s output

i i h id i Starting with identity:

SLIDE 54

Solve for output of industry i:

SLIDE 55

The S eidel Process

Third approximation:

▫ use the values obtained in the second iteration as starting values and restart the process (solve for q1 starting values, and restart the process (solve for q1, then for q2, etc.)

Iterations continue until convergence (when
utput vectors no longer change between one

iteration and another) C diti ti fi d b IO t i

Convergence conditions satisfied by IO matrix

▫ See ‘The Craft of Economic Modeling’, by Clopper Almon, Inforum

SLIDE 56

Advantages of S eidel Approach g pp

Efficiency (speed and storage space)

Can make imports endogenous in process

Can make imports endogenous in process

(determined simultaneously with output)

SLIDE 57

Preliminary results

SLIDE 58

Overview

Forecast period: 2010-2015 period
First look at macro variables forecast, then at

i d l l industry level

Macro level forecast: National aggregates:

R l GDP F t C i ▫ Real GDP Forecasts Comparison ▫ GDP Expenditure Components

SLIDE 59

E i h f Economic growth forecasts

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 M li E l t P j ti M d l Mongolia Employment Projection Model Real GDP (bil. 2005 MNT) 3,325.9 3,622.7 3,564.3 3,796.3 4,202.3 4,730.8 5,806.3 6,641.0 7,241.1 Real GDP growth 10.2 8.9

1.6

6.5 10.7 12.6 22.7 14.4 9.0 Nominal GDP (bil. MNT) 4,600 6,020 6,056 7,611 9,891 11,925 16,217 19,328 22,065 Nominal GDP growth 23.8 30.9 0.6 25.7 30.0 20.6 36.0 19.2 14.2 GDP Deflator (2005=100) 138.3 166.2 169.9 200.5 235.4 252.1 279.3 291.0 304.7 GDP Deflator (2005 100) 138.3 166.2 169.9 200.5 235.4 252.1 279.3 291.0 304.7 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Real GDP (bil. 2005 MNT) 3,640.0 3,964.0 3,913.7 4,154.0 4,559.1 4,884.9 6,013.3 6,961.0 7,586.3 Real GDP growth 10.2 8.9

1.3

6.1 9.8 7.1 23.1 15.8 9.0 Nominal GDP (bil. MNT) 4,957 6,556 6,591 8,255 10,636 12,204 16,644 20,080 22,923 Nominal GDP growth 23.1 32.3 0.5 25.3 28.8 14.7 36.4 20.6 14.2 GDP Deflator (2005=100) 136.2 165.4 168.4 198.7 233.3 249.8 276.8 288.5 302.2 Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Real GDP (bil. 2005 MNT) 3,325.9 3,620.5 3,577.1 3,820.3 4,274.9 4,907.6 Real GDP growth 10.2 8.9

1.2

6.8 11.9 14.8 Nominal GDP (bil. MNT) 4,600 6,130 5,686 7,962 10,011 12,748 Nominal GDP growth 23 8 33 3

7 2

40 0 25 7 27 3 Nominal GDP growth 23.8 33.3

7.2

40.0 25.7 27.3 GDP Deflator (2005=100) 138.3 169.3 159.0 208.4 234.2 259.8 Sources: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011 IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011 Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), May 2011

SLIDE 60

Real GDP and forecasts (2005-2015) Real GDP and forecasts (2005-2015)

8000 7000 5000 6000 4000 5 3000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 gdpR_MEPM gdpR_IMF gdpR_EIU

SLIDE 61

GDP components

GDP and its components (billion 2005 MNT) Annual or average annual change (%) GDP and its components (billion 2005 MNT) Annual or average annual change (%) Projected Actual Projected 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-12 10-15 Mongolia Employment Projection Model Real GDP 3,326 3,623 3,564 3,796 4,202 4,731 7,241 8.9

1.6

6.5 11.6 13.8 Final consumption 2 205 2 673 2 498 2 686 2 995 3 375 4 450 21 2 6 5 7 5 12 1 10 6 Actual Final consumption 2,205 2,673 2,498 2,686 2,995 3,375 4,450 21.2

6.5

7.5 12.1 10.6 Gross capital formation 1,778 2,000 1,629 1,752 2,281 2,887 4,954 12.5

18.5

7.5 28.4 23.1 Net exports

658
1,050
564
641
1,073
1,531
2,163

59.7

46.4

13.8 54.6 27.5 Exports 1,645 2,052 2,061 2,564 3,097 3,652 6,266 24.8 0.4 24.4 19.3 19.6 Imports 2,302 3,103 2,625 3,205 4,170 5,183 8,429 34.8

15.4

22.1 27.2 21.3 E i t I t lli U it (EIU) Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Real GDP 3,326 3,621 3,577 3,820 4,275 4,908 8.9

1.2

6.8 13.3 Final consumption 2,090 2,328 2,387 2,566 2,861 3,224 11.4 2.5 7.5 12.1 Gross capital formation 1,188 1,812 1,612 1,700 2,214 2,803 52.6

11.0

5.4 28.4 Net exports 48

520
422
445
800
1,119
1173.6
18.7

5.4 58.6 Exports 2,137 2,071 1,904 2,369 2,862 3,375

3.1
8.0

24.4 19.4 Imports 2,088 2,590 2,326 2,814 3,662 4,495 24.0

10.2

21.0 26.4 Sources: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

SLIDE 62

Real GDP components (2005 2015) Real GDP components (2005-2015)

000 00 80 600 400 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

year year

fceR gcfR expR impR gdpR

SLIDE 63

Final consumption expenditure

Decline in 2009: -6.5 %

Projected increase:

Projected increase:

7.5 % in 2010 12 1 % annual average between 2010-2012 12.1 % annual average between 2010 2012 9.7 % annual average between 2012-2015 10.6 % average between 2010-2015 (over the g 5 ( whole forecast period)

SLIDE 64

Gross capital formation

D li i 8 %

Decline in 2009: -18.5 %

Lower FDI High levels of risk & uncertainty High levels of risk & uncertainty

Projected increase:

7.5 % in 2010 28.4 % average annual between 2010-2012 19.7 % average annual between 2012-2015 23 1 % average annual between 2010-2015 (over 23.1 % average annual between 2010-2015 (over the whole forecast period)

Growing GCF/GDP share

SLIDE 65

Exports

Slowdown in 2009: only 0.4 % growth

▫ Decreased demand from abroad

Projected increase:

24.4 % in 2010 % l b 19.3 % average annual between 2010-2012 19.7 % average annual between 2012-2015 19 6 % average annual between 2010 2015 (over 19.6 % average annual between 2010-2015 (over the whole forecast period)

SLIDE 66

Imports

Decline in 2009: - 15.4 %

▫ Lower domestic demand

Projected increase:

22.1 % in 2010 27.2 % annual average between 2010-2012 17.6 % annual average between 2012-2015 % l b 21.3 % average annual between 2010-2015 (over the whole forecast period)

SLIDE 67

S ummary of macro variables

A l l h (%) Annual or average annual change (%) Actual Projected Actual Projected 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15 Real GDP (bil. 2005 MNT) 3,326 3,623 3,564 3,796 5,806 7,241 8.9

1.6

6.5 15.2 13.8 Nominal GDP (bil. MNT) 4,600 6,020 6,056 7,611 16,217 22,065 30.9 0.6 25.7 28.7 23.7 Nominal GDP (bil. MNT) 4,600 6,020 6,056 7,611 16,217 22,065 30.9 0.6 25.7 28.7 23.7 GDP Deflator (2005=100) 138.3 166.2 169.9 200.5 279.3 304.7 20.2 2.2 18.0 11.7 8.7 Population (Working age 15+, thous.) 1,615 1,632 1,697 1,759 1,931 2,031 1.0 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.9 Labor Force (thous ) 969 953 992 1 030 1 135 1 197

1 6

4 1 3 8 3 3 3 0 Labor Force (thous.) 969 953 992 1,030 1,135 1,197

1.6

4.1 3.8 3.3 3.0 Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 60.0 58.4 58.5 58.5 58.8 58.9 Employment (thous.) 899 900 934 971 1,091 1,145 0.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.4 Aggregate Productivity 3 7 4 0 3 8 3 9 5 3 6 3 8 8 5 2 2 5 10 8 10 1 (mil. MNT per worker) 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.9 5.3 6.3 8.8

5.2

2.5 10.8 10.1 Unemployment (thous.) 70 53 58 59 43 52

23.9

9.6 1.7

9.8
2.5

Unemployment Rate (%) 7.2 5.6 5.9 5.7 3.8 4.3 Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

SLIDE 68

Employment-to-Population Rate and Labour ploy e t to

pulat o ate a

abou Force Participation Rate (2007-2015)

60 59 6 58 56 57 55 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Employment-to-Population Ratio (EPR) Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

SLIDE 69

Working age population Labour Force Working age population, Labour Force and Employment (2007-2015)

00 2,000 000 1,50 500 1,0 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Employment Labour Force Working-age Population

SLIDE 70

Unemployment Rate (2007 2015) Unemployment Rate (2007-2015)

8

%)

6

yment Rate (%

4

Unemploy

2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SLIDE 71

Growth Rate of Employment Labour Force Growth Rate of Employment, Labour Force and Working-age Population (15 +)

6 4 6 2

4
2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

year Employment growth rate Labour force growth rate Labour force growth rate Working-age population growth rate

SLIDE 72

Industry and occupational projections

SLIDE 73

Proj ections by Industry j y y

Key output of employment projection models

Identify productive sectors

Identify productive sectors
Sectors with highest employment generating

potential potential

Policy implications

SLIDE 74

O t t b i d t Output by industry

Output by Industry (billions 2005 MNT)

Average annual change (%) Actual Projected Actual Projected 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15 Agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery 915 968 983 881 939 1,091 5.8 1.5

10.4

2.1 4.4 Industry 2,541 2,514 2,318 2,516 4,159 5,874

1.1
7.8

8.6 18.2 18.5 Mining & quarrying 1,139 1,107 1,148 1,398 2,714 3,365

2.9

3.7 21.8 24.7 19.2 Manufacturing 827 859 763 682 779 1 694 3 8 11 1 10 6 4 5 20 0 Manufacturing 827 859 763 682 779 1,694 3.8

11.1
10.6

4.5 20.0 Electricity, gas & water supply 219 239 248 267 410 540 9.2 3.8 7.5 15.5 15.2 Construction 355 310 159 169 255 274

12.8
48.8

6.8 14.6 10.1 Services 3,238 3,754 3,748 4,042 5,995 7,197 16.0

0.2

7.9 14.0 12.2 Wholesale and retail trade 484 563 413 454 731 868 16.2

26.6

9.9 17.2 13.8 Hotels & restaurants 79 84 65 70 103 124 6.9

23.0

7.7 13.8 12.0 Transport, storage & communication 1181 1,423 1,594 1,809 2,988 3,798 20.5 12.1 13.4 18.2 16.0 Financial intermediation 268 321 255 279 461 597 19.9

20.4

9.2 18.2 16.4 Real estate, renting & other business activities 450 538 554 591 848 961 19.6 2.8 6.8 12.8 10.2 Public administration & defence; l i l it 422 440 458 437 417 374 4 2 4 2 4 6 1 5 3 1 compulsory social security 422 440 458 437 417 374 4.2 4.2

4.6
1.5
3.1

Education 163 175 178 172 174 171 7.5 1.7

3.5

0.3

0.2

Health & social work 107 113 117 111 114 128 5.8 3.3

5.6

1.0 3.0 Other community, social & personal service activities 84 97 112 119 159 178 15.3 16.3 5.8 10.2 8.4 Total 6,694 7,236 7,048 7,439 11,092 14,162 8.1

2.6

5.5 14.2 13.7 , , , , , ,

Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

SLIDE 75

Output Growth p

50 100

Agriculture, etc. Mining & quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water

50

5 100

Construction Wholesale and retail trade Hotels & restaurants Transport, storage & comm.

hange)

50

50

Financial intermediation Real estate, etc. Public administration etc. Education

% annual ch

50

50 100

2007 2015 2007 2015

put Growth (%

50 100

2007 2015 2007 2015

Health & social work Other service activities

Outp

50

2007 2015 2007 2015

SLIDE 76

Productivity by sector Productivity by sector

Output per w

rker, constant 2005 MNT (mil.)

Average annual change (%) Actual Projected Actual Projected 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15 Agriculture, hunting, forestry Agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.7 8.2

0.8
12.0

0.5 3.0 Industry 20.7 18.3 16.6 16.8 22.6 30.1

11.2
9.5

1.0 10.5 12.4 Mining & quarrying 48.6 40.6 50.3 55.3 84.2 95.8

16.4

23.8 10.0 15.1 11.6 Manufacturing 15.2 14.8 14.1 11.7 11.9 23.9

3.0
4.3
17.1

0.5 15.4 Electricity, gas & water supply 16.4 12.7 13.3 13.6 18.4 22.2

22.7

5.0 2.5 10.6 10.3 y g pp y Construction 11.2 9.5 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.2

15.2
61.9

0.3 3.4 3.1 Services 8.1 9.4 8.9 9.2 11.8 13.2 17.3

5.7

3.1 8.7 7.6 Wholesale and retail trade 4.2 5.9 3.7 3.8 5.2 5.7 42.7

38.5

4.2 11.1 8.4 Hotels & restaurants 3.6 3.9 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.4 10.1

17.0

0.0 6.7 6.0 Transport, storage & communication 17.1 21.8 22.5 23.9 33.8 39.2 27.0 3.3 6.3 12.2 10.4 Financial intermediation 30.9 25.3 18.4 18.4 25.1 29.3

18.1
27.2

0.0 10.8 9.7 Real estate, renting & other business activities 28.2 28.5 32.3 32.6 42.4 45.0 1.1 13.2 1.1 9.1 6.7 Public administration & defence; compulsory social defence; compulsory social security 8.2 8.6 8.3 7.6 6.6 5.8 4.0

2.9
8.6
4.8
5.2

Education 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1

9.0

4.7

4.5
3.6
3.1

Health & social work 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.2 2.2

7.2
5.7
1.5

0.0 Other community, social & personal service activities 3 0 3 2 4 3 4 3 4 6 4 6 7 5 33 4 0 0 2 5 1 7 personal service activities 3.0 3.2 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.6 7.5 33.4 0.0 2.5 1.7 Total (weighted average) 7.4 8.0 7.5 7.7 10.2 12.4 8.0

6.2

1.5 9.9 10.1 Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

SLIDE 77

Productivity Growth y

50 100

Agriculture, etc. Mining & quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water

50

5 100

Construction Wholesale and retail trade Hotels & restaurants Transport, storage & comm.

change)

50

50 1

Financial intermediation Real estate, etc. Public administration etc. Education

h (% annual c

50

50 100

2007 2015 2007 2015

,

tivity Growth

50 100

2007 2015 2007 2015

Health & social work Other service activities

Product

50

2007 2015 2007 2015

SLIDE 78

Agriculture Output and Productivity Growth Agriculture Output and Productivity Growth

Agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery

40 20

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Output Growth (% annual change) Productivity Growth (% annual change)

SLIDE 79

Industry Output and Productivity Growth Industry Output and Productivity Growth

100

Mining & quarrying Manufacturing

50

50

00

Electricity, gas & water supply Construction

50 10

50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Output Growth (% annual change) Productivity Growth (% annual change)

SLIDE 80

S ervices Output and Productivity Growth S ervices Output and Productivity Growth

100

Wholesale and retail trade Hotels & restaurants Transport, storage & comm

50

50 1 50 100

Financial intermediation Real estate, etc. Public administration etc.

50

100

Education Health & social work Other service activities

50

50

2007 2015 2007 2015 2007 2015 2007 2015 2007 2015 2007 2015

Output Growth (% annual change) Productivity Growth (% annual change)

SLIDE 81

Productivity Levels in Industry Productivity Levels in Industry

100

Mining & quarrying Manufacturing

50

MNT (mil.)

Electricity gas & water supply Construction

nstant 2005

100

Electricity, gas & water supply Construction

er worker, co

50

Output pe

2007 2015 2007 2015

SLIDE 82

Productivity Levels in Agriculture and S ervices

duct v ty evels

g cultu e a d S e v ces

50

Agriculture, etc Wholesale and retail trade Hotels & restaurants Transport, storage & comm

5 MNT (mil.)

50

Financial intermediation Real estate, etc. Public administration etc Education

nstant 2005

2007 2015 2007 2015

Health & social work Other service activities

er worker, co

5

Output pe

2007 2015 2007 2015

SLIDE 83

Employment by industry Employment by industry

Employment by Industry (thousands of persons) Average annual change (%) Actual Projected Actual Projected 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15 Agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery 373.8 365.2 373.7 380.6 399.4 405.9

2.3

2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3 Industry 123.0 137.0 139.5 150.0 183.9 195.3 11.4 1.8 7.5 7.0 5.4 Mining & quarrying 23.5 27.2 22.8 25.3 32.2 35.1 16.2

16.2

10.7 8.4 6.8 Manufacturing 54.4 58.2 54.0 58.3 65.6 70.8 7.0

7.1

7.8 4.0 4.0 Electricity, gas & water supply 13.4 18.9 18.7 19.6 22.3 24.3 41.3

1.2

4.8 4.4 4.4 C t ti 31 8 32 7 44 0 46 9 63 8 65 0 2 8 34 5 6 5 10 8 6 8 Construction 31.8 32.7 44.0 46.9 63.8 65.0 2.8 34.5 6.5 10.8 6.8 Services 402.2 397.6 420.7 440.1 508.0 543.4

1.2

5.8 4.6 4.9 4.3 Wholesale and retail trade 116.3 94.7 113.0 119.2 140.0 152.0

18.5

19.3 5.4 5.5 5.0 Hotels & restaurants 22.1 21.5 19.9 21.5 26.1 28.3

2.9
7.2

7.8 6.6 5.6 Transport, storage & communication 68.9 65.4 70.9 75.6 88.5 97.0

5.1

8.4 6.7 5.4 5.1 Financial intermediation 8 7 12 7 13 9 15 1 18 4 20 4 46 4 9 4 9 2 6 7 6 1 Financial intermediation 8.7 12.7 13.9 15.1 18.4 20.4 46.4 9.4 9.2 6.7 6.1 Real estate, renting & other business activities 15.9 18.9 17.1 18.1 20.0 21.3 18.3

9.1

5.6 3.4 3.3 Public administration & defence; compulsory social security 51.3 51.4 55.2 57.5 63.6 64.2 0.2 7.3 4.3 3.4 2.2 Education 60.4 71.3 69.3 70.0 78.9 81.3 18.1

2.9

1.1 4.1 3.0 Education 60.4 71.3 69.3 70.0 78.9 81.3 18.1 2.9 1.1 4.1 3.0 Health & social work 30.4 31.4 35.0 35.0 37.8 40.6 3.5 11.4 0.1 2.6 3.0 Other community, social & personal service activities 28.2 30.3 26.4 27.9 34.7 38.3 7.2

12.8

5.8 7.5 6.5 Total 899.0 899.8 933.9 970.7 1,091.3 1,144.6 0.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.4 Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

SLIDE 84

I d h i l Industry shares in employment

Industry share in employment (%) Total percentage point change Actual Projected Actual Projected 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15 Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry 41.6 40.6 40.0 39.2 36.6 35.5

1.0
0.6
0.8
2.6
3.7

Industry 13.7 15.2 14.9 15.5 16.8 17.1 1.5

0.3

0.5 1.4 1.6 Mining & quarrying 2.6 3.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.1 0.4

0.6

0.2 0.3 0.5 Manufacturing 6.0 6.5 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.2 0.4

0.7

0.2 0.0 0.2 El t i it & t l 1 5 2 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 0 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 Electricity, gas & water supply 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 0.6

0.1

0.0 0.0 0.1 Construction 3.5 3.6 4.7 4.8 5.8 5.7 0.1 1.1 0.1 1.0 0.8 Services 44.7 44.2 45.0 45.3 46.6 47.5

0.6

0.9 0.3 1.2 2.1 Wholesale and retail trade 12.9 10.5 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.3

2.4

1.6 0.2 0.6 1.0 Hotels & restaurants 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5

0.1
0.3

0.1 0.2 0.3 Transport, storage & communication 7.7 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.5

0.4

0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 Transport, storage & communication 7.7 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 Financial intermediation 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Real estate, renting & other business activities 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 0.3

0.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 Public administration & defence; compulsory social security 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.0

0.1
0.3

Ed ti 6 7 7 9 7 4 7 2 7 2 7 1 1 2 0 5 0 2 0 0 0 1 Education 6.7 7.9 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.1 1.2

0.5
0.2

0.0

0.1

Health & social work 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 0.1 0.3

0.1
0.1
0.1

Other community, social & personal service activities 3.1 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 0.2

0.5

0.1 0.3 0.5 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model June 2011 Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

SLIDE 85

Employment by Economic S ector Employment by Economic S ector

Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry Industry Services 47% 41%

20 0 3

Services 12% % 40% 15% 45%

20 0 9

35% 48%

20 15

17%

SLIDE 86

Average annual employment growth (% ) by Average annual employment growth (% ) - by industry (2009-2015)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Mining & quarrying Construction Financial intermediation Other community, social & pers. Services Hotels & restaurants Transport storage & communication Transport, storage & communication Wholesale and retail trade Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water supply Realestate renting& otherbusinessactivities Real estate, renting & other business activities Education Public admin, defence; compuls. social security Health & social work Agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery

SLIDE 87

Net employment creation potential by Net employment creation potential by industry (thousand workers), 2009-2015

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Wholesale and retail trade Agriculture hunting forestry&fishery Agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishery Transport, storage & communication Construction Manufacturing Mi i & i Mining & quarrying Education Other community, social & pers. Services Public admin, defence; compuls. social security Hotels & restaurants Financial intermediation Electricity, gas & water supply Health & social work Real estate, renting & other business activities

SLIDE 88

Employment by occupation

Employment by Occupation (thousands of persons) Percent annual change (%) Employment by Occupation (thousands of persons) Percent annual change (%) Actual Projected Actual Projected 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15 LEGISLATORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS

6.0 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.5 7.6 1.1 5.3 4.3 3.8 2.7

CORPORATE MANAGERS

29.5 29.8 31.2 33.0 38.8 41.4 0.7 5.0 5.6 5.5 4.6

GENERAL MANAGERS

7.3 7.3 7.5 8.0 9.5 10.3

0.7

3.6 6.2 6.1 5.1

HOTEL AND RESTAURANT MANAGERS

1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.2 10.6

3.5

7.4 5.2 4.6

PHYSICAL, MATHEMATICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCE PROFESSIONALS

15 6 17 1 17 8 19 0 22 7 24 2 9 7 4 1 6 5 6 1 5 0

SCIENCE PROFESSIONALS

15.6 17.1 17.8 19.0 22.7 24.2 9.7 4.1 6.5 6.1 5.0

LIFE SCIENCE AND HEALTH PROFESSIONALS

16.2 16.9 18.4 18.6 20.2 21.7 3.9 8.8 1.1 2.9 3.1

TEACHING PROFESSIONALS

35.4 41.8 40.6 41.0 46.3 47.7 17.8

2.9

1.2 4.1 3.1

OTHER PROFESSIONALS

36.5 39.4 40.5 42.8 49.9 53.3 7.8 2.7 5.7 5.3 4.5

PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCE ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS

6.9 7.5 7.7 8.1 9.5 10.1 7.9 2.8 5.5 5.3 4.5

LIFE SCIENCE AND HEALTH ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS

8.1 8.4 9.2 9.3 10.1 10.8 3.3 9.7 1.0 2.8 3.0

TEACHING ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS

5.6 6.6 6.4 6.5 7.3 7.6 16.9

2.7

1.5 4.0 3.1

OTHER ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS

14.1 14.9 15.6 16.5 18.8 19.7 6.1 4.8 5.3 4.6 3.6

OFFICE CLERKS

10.9 11.5 11.9 12.5 14.5 15.4 5.2 3.8 5.1 4.9 4.2

CUSTOMER SERVICES CLERKS

4.6 4.9 5.1 5.5 6.4 6.9 5.0 5.4 6.4 5.3 4.7

PERSONAL AND PROTECTIVE SERVICES WORKERS

44.9 46.6 45.9 48.4 56.7 60.5 3.9

1.5

5.5 5.4 4.6

MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS

75.4 61.7 73.4 77.4 90.9 98.6

18.2

18.9 5.4 5.5 5.0

OTHER SALESPERSONS NOT CLASSIFIED ELSEWHERE

2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 0.8 4.4 4.4 3.9 2.9

MARKET-ORIENTED SKILLED AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY WORKERS

367.7 359.4 367.7 374.6 393.2 399.7

2.3

2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3

EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS

33.0 35.4 38.9 41.7 53.7 56.3 7.4 9.7 7.3 8.8 6.2

METAL, MACHINERY AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS

16.9 17.9 18.5 19.6 23.3 25.1 6.2 3.0 6.1 5.9 5.1

PRECISION, HANDICRAFT, PRINTING AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS

3.7 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.7 5.1 5.9

4.9

7.2 5.3 4.7

OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS

36.4 36.7 36.2 38.7 44.6 48.1 0.7

1.3

7.0 4.8 4.4

STATIONARY-PLANT AND RELATED OPERATORS

6.9 7.8 7.6 8.0 9.3 9.9 13.7

2.4

5.0 5.0 4.3

MACHINE OPERATORS AND ASSEMBLERS

3.9 4.1 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.4 5.8

2.5

7.0 5.2 4.6

DRIVERS AND MOBILE-PLANT OPERATORS

61.9 61.0 64.5 68.7 80.7 87.5

1.4

5.8 6.5 5.5 4.9

SALES AND SERVICES ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS

31.4 32.7 33.8 35.2 40.7 43.3 4.1 3.1 4.3 4.9 4.2

AGRICULTURAL, FISHERY AND RELATED LABOURERS

3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6

2.3

2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3

LABOURERS IN MINING, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING AND TRANSPORT

12.1 12.5 13.3 14.3 17.9 19.0 3.7 6.7 7.4 7.7 5.8

OCCUPATION NOT AVAILABLE

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 7.1

10.1

6.8 5.8 5.3

Total

899.0 899.8 933.9 970.7 1,091.3 1,144.6 0.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.4 Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

SLIDE 89

Average annual employment growth Average annual employment growth (2009-2015) –Top 15 occupations

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS LABOURERSIN MINING CONSTR MANUF ANDTRANSP LABOURERS IN MINING, CONSTR. MANUF. AND TRANSP GENERAL MANAGERS METAL, MACHINERY AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS PHYSICAL, MATH AND ENGINEERING PROFESSIONALS DRIVERS ANDMOBILE‐PLANT OPERATORS DRIVERS AND MOBILE PLANT OPERATORS PRECISION, HANDICRAFT, AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS HOTEL AND RESTAURANT MANAGERS CUSTOMER SERVICESCLERKS CUSTOMER SERVICES CLERKS MACHINE OPERATORS AND ASSEMBLERS OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS CORPORATE MANAGERS PERSONAL ANDPROTECTIVE SERVICESWORKERS PERSONAL AND PROTECTIVE SERVICES WORKERS OTHER PROFESSIONALS

SLIDE 90

Net proj ected employment growth by occupation Net proj ected employment growth by occupation (thousand workers), 2009-2015 Top 15 occupations p p

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

MARKET‐ORIENTED SKILLED AGRIC AND FISHERY WORKERS MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS DRIVERS AND MOBILE‐PLANT OPERATORS EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS PERSONAL AND PROTECTIVE SERVICES WORKERS OTHER PROFESSIONALS OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS CORPORATE MANAGERS SALES AND SERVICES ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS TEACHING PROFESSIONALS METAL, MACHINERY AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS PHYSICAL, MATH AND ENGINEERING PROFESSIONALS LABOURERSIN MINING, CONSTR. MANUF. ANDTRANSP LABOURERS IN MINING, CONSTR. MANUF. AND TRANSP OTHER ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS OFFICE CLERKS

SLIDE 91

O ti h i l t (2009) Occupation shares in employment (2009)

CORPORATE MANAGERS, 3.3 MARKET ORIENTED SALES AND SERVICES ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS 3 6 , ALL OTHER OCCUPATIONS 17 3 MARKET‐ORIENTED SKILLED AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY WORKERS 39 4 OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS 3 9 OCCUPATIONS, 3.6 OCCUPATIONS, 17.3 WORKERS, 39.4 OTHER EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS, 4.2 WORKERS, 3.9 MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND PERSONAL AND TEACHING PROFESSIONALS OTHER PROFESSIONALS, 4.3 SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS, 7.9 DRIVERS AND MOBILE‐PLANT OPERATORS, 6.9 PROTECTIVE SERVICES WORKERS, 4.9 PROFESSIONALS, 4.3

SLIDE 92

Occupation shares in employment (2015) Occupation shares in employment (2015)

CORPORATE MANAGERS, 3.6 MARKET‐ORIENTED SKILLED SALES AND SERVICES ELEMENTARY MANAGERS, 3.6 ALL OTHER OCCUPATIONS, 18.2 SKILLED AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY WORKERS, 34.9 TEACHING PROFESSIONALS, 4 2 OCCUPATIONS, 3.8 OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS, 4.2 4.2 MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS, DRIVERS AND PERSONAL AND PROTECTIVE EXTRACTION AND OTHER PROFESSIONALS, 4.7 8.6 DRIVERS AND MOBILE‐PLANT OPERATORS, 7.6 PROTECTIVE SERVICES WORKERS, 5.3 EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS, 4.9

SLIDE 93

Occupation shares in employment Occupation shares in employment

Occupation share in employment (%) Total percentage point change Actual Projected Actual Projected 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2015 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-13 10-15 LEGISLATORS AND SENIOR OFFICIALS

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

CORPORATE MANAGERS

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2

GENERAL MANAGERS

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

HOTEL AND RESTAURANT MANAGERS

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PHYSICAL, MATHEMATICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCE PROFESSIONALS

1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2

LIFE SCIENCE AND HEALTH PROFESSIONALS

1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.1 0.1

0.1
0.1

0.0

TEACHING PROFESSIONALS

3.9 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 0.7

0.3
0.1

0.0

0.1

OTHER PROFESSIONALS

4.1 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2

PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCE ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LIFE SCIENCE AND HEALTH ASSOCIATE

0 9 0 9 1 0 1 0 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

PROFESSIONALS

0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

TEACHING ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS

0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER ASSOCIATE PROFESSIONALS

1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OFFICE CLERKS

1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

CUSTOMER SERVICES CLERKS

0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PERSONAL AND PROTECTIVE SERVICES WORKERS

5.0 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 0.2

0.3

0.1 0.2 0.3

MODELS, SALESPERSONS AND DEMONSTRATORS

8 4 6 9 7 9 8 0 8 3 8 6 1 5 1 0 0 1 0 4 0 6

DEMONSTRATORS

8.4 6.9 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.6

1.5

1.0 0.1 0.4 0.6

OTHER SALESPERSONS NOT CLASSIFIED ELSEWHERE

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MARKET-ORIENTED SKILLED AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY WORKERS

40.9 39.9 39.4 38.6 36.0 34.9

1.0
0.6
0.8
2.6
3.7

EXTRACTION AND BUILDING TRADES WORKERS

3.7 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.9 4.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.6

METAL, MACHINERY AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS

1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2

PRECISION, HANDICRAFT, PRINTING AND RELATED , , TRADES WORKERS

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER CRAFT AND RELATED TRADES WORKERS

4.1 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 0.0

0.2

0.1 0.1 0.2

STATIONARY-PLANT AND RELATED OPERATORS

0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1

0.1

0.0 0.0 0.0

MACHINE OPERATORS AND ASSEMBLERS

0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DRIVERS AND MOBILE-PLANT OPERATORS

6.9 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6

0.1

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6

SALES AND SERVICES ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS

3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2

AGRICULTURAL, FISHERY AND RELATED LABOURERS

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LABOURERS IN MINING, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING AND TRANSPORT

1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2

OCCUPATION NOT AVAILABLE

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total

100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: Mongolia Employment Projections Model, June 2011

SLIDE 94

Key Results S ummary – Employment by y y p y y Industry

Agriculture (herding):

Agriculture (herding):

▫ Employment share decreasing, but sector remains largest employer

Manufacturing:

▫ Slow employment growth, small increase in employment share p y

Mining and construction:

▫ Highest employment growth rates, but relatively g p y g , y small in terms of levels

Wholesale and retail trade:

h l ▫ Highest net employment creation

SLIDE 95

Key Results S ummary – Employment by y y p y y Occupation

Market-oriented skilled agriculture workers
Market oriented skilled agriculture workers

▫ Highest net employment growth

Increase in salespersons, sales and service

p , elementary occupations

High demand for mining-related occupations:

E i d b ildi d k ▫ Extraction and building trades workers ▫ Drivers and mobile plant operators ▫ Labourers in mining, construction Metal machinery and related trades workers ▫ Metal machinery and related trades workers

High demand for professionals & associate

professionals: professionals:

▫ Physical, math, engineering science; Teaching; and

thers

SLIDE 96

Policy Implications/ Challenges

Improving competitiveness

▫ Human resource development ▫ Human resource development ▫ Technology and innovation

Economic diversification

▫ Avoiding ‘resource curse’ scenario R d i l bilit t i h k ▫ Reducing vulnerability to economic shocks ▫ Broaden employment creation

SLIDE 97

Policy Implications/ Challenges Policy Implications/ Challenges

Tackle vulnerable employment

▫ Improve productivity and working conditions of ▫ Improve productivity and working conditions of agriculture (herding) sector

Skills development:

Skills development:

▫ For agriculture (herding) workers ▫ TVET ▫ Higher education g

Support for SMEs:

▫ Agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and d h ll b i i l di l restaurants and other small businesses, including along mining supply chain

Support for manufacturing sector and other sectors

Support for manufacturing sector and other sectors

with high productivity employment potential

SLIDE 98

Possible avenues b

SLIDE 99

Questions

How does employment in energy- and non-

energy sectors evolve? energy sectors evolve?

What are the projections for occupational and

skill demands? skill demands?

How much can policies achieve in stimulating

employment growth? p y g

What is the right policy mix between