SLIDE 1
Scottish regional population projections with POPGROUP
Edinburgh June 26, 2008
Presentation outline
- POPGROUP set up for regional projections
- Interpreting results
- Making your own projections
Scottish regional population projections with POPGROUP Katerina - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Scottish regional population projections with POPGROUP Katerina - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Scottish regional population projections with POPGROUP Katerina Lisenkova Edinburgh June 26, 2008 Presentation outline POPGROUP set up for regional projections Interpreting results Making your own projections Presentation
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Presentation outline
- POPGROUP set up for regional projections
- Results and interpretation
- Making your own projections
SLIDE 4
Background
- Motivation is to set-up facility for local authorities
to produce their own population projections at regional level
- POPGROUP software was selected for this purpose
- Selected POPGROUP options resemble GROS
projections procedure but do not follow it 100%
- Each local authority will get input files with
principal assumptions to use in POPGROUP
- Data from the GROS and ONS was manipulated to
fit into POPGOUP format
- Provided assumptions can be changed to produce
different population projections at regional level
SLIDE 5
Population projections
Age-sex structure of population in year y
Fertility rates Mortality rates Migration rates/ counts Age-sex Structure of Births Age-sex structure of Deaths Age-sex structure of migrants
+
- + / -
Age-sex structure of population in year y+ 1
=
SLIDE 6
Don’t know Don’t know
Population projections
Age-sex structure of population in year y
Fertility rates Mortality rates Migration rates/ counts Age-sex Structure of Births Age-sex structure of Deaths Age-sex structure of migrants
+
- + / -
Age-sex structure of population in year y+ 1
=
SLIDE 7
Don’t know Don’t know Don’t know
Population projections
Age-sex structure of population in year y
Fertility rates Mortality rates Migration rates/ counts Age-sex Structure of Births Age-sex structure of Deaths Age-sex structure of migrants
+
- + / -
Age-sex structure of population in year y+ 1
=
SLIDE 8
Regional level Scotland level
Calculation of age/ age-sex specific rates
x
Age/ age-sex specific differential
x
Total differential
x
Age-sex specific differentials
=
Age/ age-sex specific rates
- r
Standard schedule
SLIDE 9
POPGROUP: input files
- Base population
–by sex and single year of age
- Mortality/ fertility assumptions
–Standard schedule by single year of age and sex –5-year age group differentials for each year of the projection –Local authority specific total fertility and age-specific mortality differentials
- In and out migration assumptions
–Standard schedule by single year of age and sex –Number of migrants by 5-year age groups and sex
SLIDE 10
Base population
SLIDE 11
Standard AS fertility ( m ortality) schedule
SLIDE 12
Fertility ( m ortality) differentials
SLIDE 13
Regional fertility ( m ortality) differentials
SLIDE 14
Standard AS m igration schedules
SLIDE 15
Num ber of m igrants
SLIDE 16
Presentation outline
- POPGROUP set up for regional projections
- Results and interpretation
- Making your own projections
SLIDE 17
Aberdeen total population
175,000 180,000 185,000 190,000 195,000 200,000 205,000 210,000 215,000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
POPGROUP GROS
SLIDE 18
Selected age groups
Aberdeen
- 2.0%
- 1.5%
- 1.0%
- 0.5%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
0-15 16-25 26-49 50-64 65+ Total
16-25 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 POPGROUP GROS 26-49 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 POPGROUP GROS 50-64 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 POPGROUP GROS 65+ 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 POPGROUP GROS 0-15 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 POPGROUP GROS
SLIDE 19
Presentation outline
- POPGROUP set up for regional projections
- Results and interpretation
- Making your own projections
SLIDE 20
Changing assumptions
- Don’t change standard schedule
- To change fertility/ mortality assumptions
– Change differentials
Scotland level Regional level
- To change migration assumptions
– Change number of in or out migrants
SLIDE 21
Example
- Double net migration
– Increase in-migration – Decrease out-migration – Change both
- Determine important age groups
- Compare results
SLIDE 22
Example: results
16-25 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 Principal Example 26-49 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Principal Example 50-64 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 Principal Example 65+ 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Principal Example Total 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 Principal Example 0-15 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Principal Example
SLIDE 23
Percentage difference with official projections
- 2.00%
- 1.50%
- 1.00%
- 0.50%
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
0-15 16-25 26-49 50-64 65+ Total