Estimates and Projections SDC affiliates meeting May 2009 Program - - PDF document

Cornell Program on Applied Demographics On the web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu Email: PADinfo@cornell.edu 1

Estimates and Projections

SDC affiliates meeting May 2009

Program on Applied Demographics

Web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu Email: PADInfo@Cornell.edu

Estimates

• Review of early releases

Co nt Pop lation – County - Population – Sub county – Housing units

• Analysis of Census Bureau Estimates
• Looking at trends

– ONE YEAR DOES NOT MAKE A TREND

Program on Applied Demographics

• State and County estimates
• Papers with analyses are being written

Cornell Program on Applied Demographics On the web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu Email: PADinfo@cornell.edu 2

State Estimates

• Comparing change from 2000-2004 with

h 2004 2008 change 2004-2008

Program on Applied Demographics

Population change 2000-2004

Program on Applied Demographics

Cornell Program on Applied Demographics On the web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu Email: PADinfo@cornell.edu 3

Population change 2004-2008

Program on Applied Demographics

Percent Change in State Population

AZ 14 16 AL AK AZ CA CO FL GA ID IA MD NV NH NC ND OK SC TX UT WY 2 4 6 8 10 12 Percent Change 2004-2008 State changes US total change

Program on Applied Demographics

LA MD MI NY ND RI WV

• 2
• 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Percent Change 2000-2004 P 1 Standard Deviation Equal Growth

Cornell Program on Applied Demographics On the web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu Email: PADinfo@cornell.edu 4

Average annual growth by cluster 3.0% 3.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Average percentage growth

1 2 3 4 5

Program on Applied Demographics 0.0% 0.5% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year (end of period)

Program on Applied Demographics

Cornell Program on Applied Demographics On the web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu Email: PADinfo@cornell.edu 5

WY WA VA NM NH MN MD ID GA AZ

Deaths

RI IL

Domestic Migration

AZ

International Migration

AK AL NY NJ FL NY NV NY NJ DC CA TX NY NJ NV FL DC CA TN SD SC PA OK NC NE MO MS LA KY KS IN HI DE CO AR AK

Program on Applied Demographics

WI OR OH ND MT MI MA IA CT

Births

MI MA WV VT UT TN ME

Region/County Estimates

• Look at components of change
• Comparing change from 2000-2004 with

change 2004-2008

Program on Applied Demographics

Cornell Program on Applied Demographics On the web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu Email: PADinfo@cornell.edu 6

Figure 1. Rate of Change in Population Due to Natural Increase and Net Migration, 2000-2008

6.0% 8.0% Population Natural Increase Net Migration

• 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0%

Rates of Change

Program on Applied Demographics

• 6.0%
• 4.0%

Capital Central Finger Lakes Long Island Mid- Hudson Mohawk Valley New York City North Country Southern Tier Western

Region

New York City

2% 3% 4%

Capital Central Finger Lakes Long Island Mid-Hudson Mohawk Valley North Country NY State

• 1%

0% 1%

• 3%
• 2%
• 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% % Growth 2004-2008

Program on Applied Demographics Central Southern Tier Western

• 3%
• 2%

% Growth 2000-2004

Cornell Program on Applied Demographics On the web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu Email: PADinfo@cornell.edu 7

Program on Applied Demographics

6% 8% BRX DUT FRA JEF KIN LEW MTG NAS NEW ORA PUT QUE RIC SAR SCH SUF TOM WES 0% 2% 4%

• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% % Growth 2004-2008

Program on Applied Demographics

ALL CAT ERI HAM ORL OTS SEN

• 4%
• 2%

% Growth 2000-2004

Cornell Program on Applied Demographics On the web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu Email: PADinfo@cornell.edu 8

Projections

• Small adjustments with release of new

C B C t ti t Census Bureau County estimates

• Web site redesigned

– New user interface

• Documentation and Assumptions now
• nline

Program on Applied Demographics

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