Annual Update and School Board Work Session February 11, 2020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Annual Update and Projections

School Board Work Session February 11, 2020

Annual Update and Projections

Agenda

www.apsva.us/engage

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6:30

• Annual Update
• Discussion

7:40

• 2019 10‐Year Projections
• Updating CIP Priorities
• Discussion

9:00

• Adjourn

Annual Update

Preparing for 2020‐21 Enrollment

Annual Update

Options and Transfers Policy (J‐5.3.31) defines the Annual Update

Reporting to the School Board Each fall, the Superintendent will update the School Board on enrollment levels at each school/program and transportation* and will make recommendations to achieve the goals stated in this policy. As a result of the annual update, the School Board may need to make adjustments to the policy and Arlington Public Schools may need to make adjustments to the implementation procedures.

*Note: Transportation and Boundary Processes are scheduled to be provided as monitoring reports to the School Board later this spring, so this summary focuses on managing enrollment.

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Annual Update: Cross‐Departmental Team

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Participants Contribution Principal groups Identify potential issues, opportunities within their schools Administrative Services Facilitates discussion with each of the principal groups Teaching & Learning Provides direction on:

• New programmatic needs
• Program moves that support identified students
• Data on options & transfers (applications, lotteries, waitlists)

Planning & Evaluation Provides data for planning (enrollment trends, projections, capacity, utilization rates) Facilities & Operations Advises on potential facility adjustments, coordinates reviews at schools as needed School & Community Relations Develops and disseminates information to external stakeholders Information Services Supports this work with data updates

Annual Update: Preparing for 2020‐21

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Tools for Managing Enrollment Changes for 2020‐21 Relocatable classrooms

• Adding 4 at Abingdon
• Adding 4 at ASFS
• Adding 2 at Kenmore

Transfers to neighborhood schools

• Dorothy Hamm M.S.
• Yorktown H.S.

Option school classes/seats

• Maintaining numbers offered in 2019‐20

Move PreK programs

• Under review

Change how classrooms are used

(i.e., converting computer labs to classrooms)

• Under review

Adjust policy or procedures

• Adjusted timeline for announcing transfers concurrent with

lottery notifications, informed by projections

Note, the Annual Update reflects a snapshot of information available at the time when the report is presented to the School Board. APS will continue to adjust as needed.

Annual Update: Next Steps

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Participants Contribution Principals Prepare for change within school Facilities and Operations Plans for removal and installation of relocatables School & Community Relations Shares information with stakeholders Administrative Services Processes appeals Teaching & Learning Supports program transitions Process applications for options and transfers Planning & Evaluation Updates projections Finance & Management Services Updates budget with revised projections, which informs staffing Human Resources Works with schools to prepare for staffing needs Information Services Updates student data in Synergy to align with adjustments

Upcoming Capacity Planning Processes

Timeframe Process Spring 2020

• Review data that will be used for Fall 2020 Boundary

Processes

• Adopt 2021‐30 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)

Fall 2020

• Adopt Elementary Schools Boundaries
• Adopt High Schools Boundaries

Summer 2021 • Publish Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan (AFSAP) Fall 2021

• Adopt Middle Schools Boundaries

Spring 2022

• Adopt 2023‐32 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)

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APS as a School System

Moving from a “system of schools” to a “school system”*

• APS operates under a site‐based management model,

which has a significant impact on the consistency of programming from school to school district‐wide.

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• It is important to strike a balance between decision‐making at each

school and the cohesiveness and standardization required to ensure high‐quality service delivery across all schools.

*Source: Evaluation of APS Services for Students with Disabilities and Those Requiring Intervention,

• Nov. 2019 www.apsva.us/wp‐content/uploads/2019/11/Evaluation‐of‐Services‐for‐Students‐with‐Disabilities‐and‐

Those‐Requiring‐Intervention‐FINAL.pdf

APS as a School System: Discussion

Moving from a “system of schools” to a “school system”

• 1. How do we know when we’ve become a school

system?

• 2. Are there lessons learned from this collaborative

work?

• 3. What are the opportunities?
• 4. What are the challenges?
• 5. Are there other adjustments being made as a

result of this work?

• 6. What can the School Board do to facilitate this

work?

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2019 10‐Year Projections

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Timeline of Enrollment Projections Updates to School Board

Timeframe Enrollment Projections Updates September 24, 2019 School Board Work Session:

• Presented the Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodations Plan (AFSAP)
• Provided early school capacity context for the upcoming FY 2021‐30 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)
• Used Fall 2018 10‐year projections to measure school capacity

December 3, 2019 Joint School Board/County Board Work Session:

• Presented an update that included work by consultant and staff to recalibrate the county’s births

forecast

• Discussed the updated births forecast’s possible impact on enrollment projections

December 20, 2019 New Enrollment Projections:

• Published Fall 2019 10‐year projections for 2020‐21 through 2029‐30
• Incorporated the county’s updated births forecast

Additional information The Sept. 24, 2019 and Dec. 3, 2019 presentations and the Fall 2019 10‐year enrollment projections can be found at, https://www.apsva.us/engage/afsapreport/ (under Additional Resources).

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

Current Enrollment in the Context of Past and Anticipated Trends

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2,126 2,224 2,264 2,231 2,320 2,268 2,144 2,145 2,156 2,135 2,108 1,876 2,081 1,901 1,779 1,762 1,782 1,631 1,565 1,492

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 K 2022‐ 23 K 2021‐ 22 K 2020‐ 21 K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 12th, Sept. '18 12th, Sept. '17 12th, Sept. '16 12th, Sept. '15

APS Student Enrollment Snapshot Fall 2019

Projected Kindergarten Students * Current Students (Sept. 30, 2019) ** Recent Grade 12 Cohorts (Sept. of each year) ** *Source: Fall 2019 10‐Year Projections **Source: Membership reports for 2019 and previous years www.apsva.us/statistics/monthly‐enrollment/

14,286 14,843 15,106 15,255 15,220 15,127 14,898 14,732 14,517 14,489 14,396 ‐212 ‐769 ‐300 ‐449 ‐414 ‐321 ‐92 74 289 317 1,135

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Enrollment (Grade PreK to 5) School Year

Comparison of Projected Elementary School Enrollment (PreK to Grade 5) and School Seats

Update to Chart 10, Page 51 of the 2019 AFSAP

Note Starting in 2025‐26, the elementary school enrollment projections are completely based

• n assumptions* for K to Grade 5

students from:

• Births
• Future construction
• Past cohort transition rates

continuing into the future

* Projection assumptions only apply to Grades K to 5. PreK is not projected and is an estimate provided by the Department of Teaching and Learning. The PreK estimate is added to each Grade K to 5 projection to produce elementary enrollment totals for PreK to Grade 5 for each projection year.

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

Projection completely based on assumptions 2019 Enrollment School Seats Projected Enrollment

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+732 seats, Reed E.S. +752 seats, Fleet E.S. +725‐750 (assume 725) seats in existing building (FY 2019‐28 CIP)

Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation, Fall 2019. Facilities & Operations, February 2020..

Update to Chart 11, Page 52 of the 2019 AFSAP

Note The FY 2019‐28 CIP included a 300 seat renovation/addition at a location TBD in 2030. These seats are not included in the bar chart on this slide. Starting in 2028‐29, the middle school enrollment projections are completely based on assumptions for Grade 6 to 8 students from:

• Births
• Future construction
• Past cohort transition rates

continuing into the future

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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6,119 6,442 6,526 6,562 6,681 6,864 7,004 7,022 7,036 6,938 6,823 214 ‐109 ‐193 ‐229 ‐348 ‐531 ‐671 ‐689 ‐703 ‐605 ‐490

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Enrollment (Grade 6 to 8) School Year +1,022 seats, Dorothy Hamm M.S., The Heights (Grade 6 to 8)

Projection completely based on assumptions 2019 Enrollment School Seats Projected Enrollment

Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation, Fall 2019. Facilities & Operations, February 2020..

Comparison of Projected Middle School Enrollment and School Seats

Update to Chart 12, Page 53 of the 2019 AFSAP Note Starting in 2029‐30, the high school enrollment projections are completely based on assumptions for Grade 9 students from:

• Births
• Future construction
• Past cohort transition

rates continuing into the future

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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7,523 7,857 8,370 8,800 8,960 9,200 9,219 9,297 9,426 9,527 9,643 597 343 520 90 ‐70 ‐310 471 393 264 163 47

‐1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 Enrollment (Grade 9 to 12) School Year +237 seats,

• Arl. Tech, The

Heights (Grades 9 to 12) +80 seats,

• Arl. Tech

+690 seats,

• Arl. Tech,

Ed Center +800 seats,

• Arl. Career Ctr.

Projection for Grade 9 based on assumptions 2018 Enrollment School Seats Projected Enrollment

Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation, Fall 2019. Facilities & Operations, February 2020..

Comparison of Projected High School Enrollment and School Seats

Visualizing Seats Needed: Elementary School Level (2024‐25)

Update to Map 2, Page 36 of the 2019 AFSAP

Gap Between Projected Elementary School Students and Future Seats (Year 2024‐25) Each Zone consists of existing neighborhood boundaries that are grouped to approximate ACG's Planning Corridors: https://projects.arlingtonva.us/plans‐ studies/general‐land‐use‐plan/planning‐areas/. Each Zone also includes its corresponding option schools/programs capacity and enrollment. This map does not reflect the Superintendent’s recommendation adopted by the School Board on

• Feb. 6, 2020, to move three schools as part of the

Elementary School Planning Process for the 2021‐22 school year. You can learn more about this recommendation at https://www.apsva.us/engage/planning‐for‐2020‐ elementary‐school‐boundary‐process/

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation, Fall 2019. Facilities & Operations, February 2020..

Legend

% ,

New Elementary School at Reed site

n m

Neighborhood Elementary School

^ _

Option Elementary School / Program Zones with approximate ACG's Planning Corridors (using Fall 2019 enrollment projections) Zone 1 - Residential Area, North of Rosslyn- Ballston Corridor Zone 2 - Approximates the Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor Zone 3 - Approximates the Columbia Pike Corridor Zone 4 - Approximates the U.S. 1

Zone 1: 719 more permanent seats than students

Zone 4: 129 more students than permanent seats

Zone 2: 561 more students than permanent seats Zone 3: 350 more students than permanent seats

School Year 2024‐25

There are about 320 more PreK to Grade 5 students than permanent seats county‐wide

Visualizing Seats Needed: Elementary School Level (2029‐30)

Update to Map 4, Page 39 of the 2019 AFSAP

Gap Between Projected Elementary School Students and Future Seats (Year 2029‐30) Each Zone consists of existing neighborhood boundaries that are grouped to approximate ACG's Planning Corridors: https://projects.arlingtonva.us/plans‐ studies/general‐land‐use‐plan/planning‐areas/. Each Zone also includes its corresponding option schools/programs capacity and enrollment. This map does not reflect the Superintendent’s recommendation adopted by the School Board on

• Feb. 6, 2020, to move three schools as part of the

Elementary School Planning Process for the 2021‐22 school year. You can learn more about this recommendation at https://www.apsva.us/engage/planning‐for‐2020‐ elementary‐school‐boundary‐process/

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation, Fall 2019. Facilities & Operations, February 2020..

Legend

% ,

New Elementary School at Reed site

n m

Neighborhood Elementary School

^ _

Option Elementary School / Program Zones with approximate ACG's Planning Corridors (using Fall 2019 enrollment projections) Zone 1 - Residential Area, North of Rosslyn- Ballston Corridor Zone 2 - Approximates the Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor Zone 3 - Approximates the Columbia Pike Corridor Zone 4 - Approximates the U.S. 1

Zone 1: 957 more permanent seats than students

Zone 4: 60 more students than permanent seats

Zone 2: 376 more students than permanent seats Zone 3: 111 more students than permanent seats

School Year 2029‐30

There are 410 more permanent seats than PreK to Grade 5 students county‐wide (not including additional seats from FY 2019‐28 CIP)

Visualizing Seats Needed: Middle School Level (2024‐25)

Update to Map 7, Page 43 of the 2019 AFSAP Gap Between Projected Middle School Students and Future Seats (Year 2024‐25)

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation, Fall 2019. Facilities & Operations, February 2020..

School Year 2024‐25

There are about 530 more students than permanent seats county‐wide

Legend

^ _ Option School / Program

n m Neighborhood School Middle School Boundaries

67 more students than permanent seats 288 more students than permanent seats 158 more students than permanent seats 4 more students than permanent seats 160 more students than permanent seats 136 more permanent seats than students 10 more permanent seats than students

Visualizing Seats Needed: Middle School Level (2029‐30)

Update to Map 7, Page 43 of the 2019 AFSAP Gap Between Projected Middle School Students and Future Seats (Year 2029‐30)

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation, Fall 2019. Facilities & Operations, February 2020..

School Year 2029‐30

There are about 490 more students than permanent seats county‐wide

Legend

^ _ Option School / Program

n m Neighborhood School Middle School Boundaries

65 more students than permanent seats 364 more students than permanent seats 150 more students than permanent seats 22 more students than permanent seats 122 more students than permanent seats 223 more permanent seats than students 10 more permanent seats than students

Visualizing Seats Needed: High School Level (2024‐25)

Update to Map 9, Page 46 of the 2019 AFSAP Gap Between Projected High School Students and Future Seats (Year 2024‐25)

* Includes full‐time Arlington Tech, Academic Academy, HILT Institute, and PEP students. Arlington Career Center part‐time students are included at their neighborhood school. The CTE programs at the Career Center serve up to 900 students, divided into three blocks, where each block provides programing space for 300 students; the CTE space has a capacity of 300 seats.

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation, Fall 2019. Facilities & Operations, February 2020..

School Year 2024‐25

There are about 310 more students than permanent seats county‐wide

21 more permanent seats than students 29 more permanent seats than full‐time students * 116 more permanent seats than students 42 more permanent seats than students 13 more permanent seats than students 343 more students than permanent seats 516 more students than permanent seats 272 more students than permanent seats 600 permanent seats added at Education Center; no projected students allocated to new seats

Legend % ,

EducationCenter

^ _

Option School / Program

n m

Neighborhood School High School Boundaries

Visualizing Seats Needed: High School Level (2029‐30)

Update to Map 10, Page 47 of the 2019 AFSAP Gap Between Projected High School Students and Future Seats (Year 2020‐30)

* Includes full‐time Arlington Tech, Academic Academy, HILT Institute, and PEP students. Arlington Career Center part‐time students are included at their neighborhood school. The CTE programs at the Career Center serve up to 900 students, divided into three blocks, where each block provides programing space for 300 students; the CTE space has a capacity of 300 seats.

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

22

Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation, Fall 2019. Facilities & Operations, February 2020..

School Year 2029‐30

There are about 50 more permanent seats than students county‐wide

21 more permanent seats than students 829 more permanent seats than full‐time students * 116 more permanent seats than students 42 more permanent seats than students 13 more permanent seats than students 426 more students than permanent seats 932 more students than permanent seats 216 more students than permanent seats 600 permanent seats added at Education Center; no projected students allocated to new seats

Legend % ,

EducationCenter

^ _

Option School / Program

n m

Neighborhood School High School Boundaries

Updating CIP Priorities

Revised Recommendations for the FY 2021‐30 CIP

School Level Number of Seats Needed

Recommendation from AFSAP Using 2018 10‐Year Projections Revised Recommendation Using 2019 10‐Year Projections

High School

None if CIP continues with current projects No change

Middle School

2024‐25: 500 seats No change

Elementary School

2024‐25: another school (700+) or two additions (300+ each) Change Capacity for Grades PreK‐5 is manageable

Other Projects – limit to MC/MM

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Annual Update and Projections

School Board Work Session February 11, 2020

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based

• n many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington

School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

Background Information for Enrollment Projections Q&A

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Enrollment Projections Accuracy, Longitudinal Analysis

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the

• time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may

change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Notes

• “DNA” = Projection data not available
• Accuracy above 100 percent indicates the projection is over‐forecast, conversely an accuracy less than 100 percent indicates an

under‐forecast of the September 30th official count

• A positive (+) error percentage indicates an over‐forecast, conversely a negative(‐) error percentage indicates an under‐forecast of

the September 30th official count

• A +/‐ 2 percent annual range of error is an accepted standard for fast growing school districts like Arlington Public Schools

School Year Official Count on September

Historical Enrollment Projections

One Year Before (Fall Projection) Two Years Before (Fall Projection) Four Years Before (Fall Projection) Five Years Before (Fall Projection) 30th Projection Accuracy % Error % Projection Accuracy % Error % Projection Accuracy % Error % Projection Accuracy % Error % 2005‐06 18,411 18,237 99.05% ‐0.95% 18,817 102.21% 2.21% DNA DNA DNA DNA DNA DNA 2006‐07 18,451 18,231 98.81% ‐1.19% 17,897 97.00% ‐3.00% DNA DNA DNA DNA DNA DNA 2007‐08 18,684 18,380 98.37% ‐1.63% 17,906 95.84% ‐4.16% 18,479 98.90% ‐1.10% DNA DNA DNA 2008‐09 19,534 18,868 96.59% ‐3.41% 18,268 93.52% ‐6.48% 17,259 88.35% ‐11.65% 18,326 93.82% ‐6.18% 2009‐10 20,233 20,084 99.26% ‐0.74% 19,029 94.05% ‐5.95% 17,301 85.51% ‐14.49% 16,945 83.75% ‐16.25% 2010‐11 21,241 20,933 98.55% ‐1.45% 20,650 97.22% ‐2.78% 18,324 86.27% ‐13.73% 17,002 80.04% ‐19.96% 2011‐12 21,841 22,201 101.65% 1.65% 21,657 99.16% ‐0.84% 19,318 88.45% ‐11.55% 18,358 84.05% ‐15.95% 2012‐13 22,613 22,681 100.30% 0.30% 23,051 101.94% 1.94% 21,859 96.67% ‐3.33% 19,464 86.07% ‐13.93% 2013‐14 23,316 23,586 101.16% 1.16% 23,591 101.18% 1.18% 23,074 98.96% ‐1.04% 22,485 96.44% ‐3.56% 2014‐15 24,529 24,153 98.47% ‐1.53% 24,402 99.48% ‐0.52% 25,006 101.94% 1.94% 23,838 97.18% ‐2.82% 2015‐16 25,238 25,649 101.63% 1.63% 24,946 98.84% ‐1.16% 25,213 99.90% ‐0.10% 25,867 102.49% 2.49% 2016‐17 26,152 26,366 100.82% 0.82% 26,568 101.59% 1.59% 26,143 99.97% ‐0.03% 26,069 99.68% ‐0.32% 2017‐18 26,941 27,197 100.95% 0.95% 27,331 101.45% 1.45% 26,656 98.94% ‐1.06% 26,947 100.02% 0.02% 2018‐19 27,436 28,020 102.13% 2.13% 27,879 101.61% 1.61% 28,404 103.53% 3.53% 27,476 100.15% 0.15% 2019‐20 28,020 28,495 101.70% 1.70% 28,778 102.71% 2.71% 28,802 102.79% 2.79% 29,188 104.17% 4.17% Mean Absolute Percentage Error 1.42% 2.49% 5.55% 7.03%

Distribution of Affordable and Mixed‐Income Housing

Map of:

• Forecast of affordable and

mixed‐income housing developments

• Existing affordable and mixed‐

income housing developments

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Source: Arlington County Government, Housing Unit Forecast and Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD), Fall 2019. Legend

% ,

New Elementary School at Reed site

n m

Neighborhood Elementary School

^ _

Option Elementary School / Program Housing Unit Forecast of affordable and mixed- income developments (data from ACG, Fall 2019) All CAF Mixed-Income Existing Housing Units which are affordable and mixed-income (MHUD data from ACG, Fall 2019) All CAF Mixed-Income

Distribution of Affordable and Mixed‐Income Housing

Close‐Up of Zone 1 Map of:

• Forecast of affordable and

mixed‐income housing developments

• Existing affordable and mixed‐

income housing developments

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Source: Arlington County Government, Housing Unit Forecast and Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD), Fall 2019. Legend

% ,

New Elementary School at Reed site

n m

Neighborhood Elementary School

^ _

Option Elementary School / Program Housing Unit Forecast of affordable and mixed- income developments (data from ACG, Fall 2019) All CAF Mixed-Income Existing Housing Units which are affordable and mixed-income (MHUD data from ACG, Fall 2019) All CAF Mixed-Income

Distribution of Affordable and Mixed‐Income Housing

Close‐Up of Zone 2 Map of:

• Forecast of affordable and

mixed‐income housing developments

• Existing affordable and mixed‐

income housing developments

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

30

Source: Arlington County Government, Housing Unit Forecast and Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD), Fall 2019. Legend

% ,

New Elementary School at Reed site

n m

Neighborhood Elementary School

^ _

Option Elementary School / Program Housing Unit Forecast of affordable and mixed- income developments (data from ACG, Fall 2019) All CAF Mixed-Income Existing Housing Units which are affordable and mixed-income (MHUD data from ACG, Fall 2019) All CAF Mixed-Income

Distribution of Affordable and Mixed‐Income Housing

Close‐Up of Zone 3 Map of:

• Forecast of affordable and

mixed‐income housing developments

• Existing affordable and mixed‐

income housing developments

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

31

Source: Arlington County Government, Housing Unit Forecast and Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD), Fall 2019. Legend

% ,

New Elementary School at Reed site

n m

Neighborhood Elementary School

^ _

Option Elementary School / Program Housing Unit Forecast of affordable and mixed- income developments (data from ACG, Fall 2019) All CAF Mixed-Income Existing Housing Units which are affordable and mixed-income (MHUD data from ACG, Fall 2019) All CAF Mixed-Income

Distribution of Affordable and Mixed‐Income Housing

Close‐Up of Zone 4 Map of:

• Forecast of affordable and

mixed‐income housing developments

• Existing affordable and mixed‐

income housing developments

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

32

Source: Arlington County Government, Housing Unit Forecast and Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD), Fall 2019. Legend

% ,

New Elementary School at Reed site

n m

Neighborhood Elementary School

^ _

Option Elementary School / Program Housing Unit Forecast of affordable and mixed- income developments (data from ACG, Fall 2019) All CAF Mixed-Income Existing Housing Units which are affordable and mixed-income (MHUD data from ACG, Fall 2019) All CAF Mixed-Income

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

Larger kindergarten cohorts entering APS elementary schools Smaller 12th grade cohorts graduating from APS high schools Projected Arlington County “resident” births Residential housing growth Migration of families into and

• ut of Arlington

County

33

2,196 2,152 2,127 2,253 2,293 2,231 2,264 2,224 2,126 2,159 2,154 2,043 2,159 2,059 2,112 2,054 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 Entering Kindergarten Cohorts

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

Enrollment projections rely on assumptions for future kindergarten students:

• Kindergarten

projections from 2020‐21 to 2023‐24 are based on actual births from 2015 to 2018

• Kindergarten

projections starting in 2024‐25 are based on county birth forecasts

Based on actual births Based on forecasted births

34

Source: Fall 2019 10‐Year Projections

Actual kindergarten enrollment Projected kindergarten enrollment, Fall 2019 10‐Year Projections

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

35

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

• In Fall 2019, RLS Demographics was contracted to update the Arlington County births forecast model,

the Cohort Projection System, which had been last updated in 2016

• Comparisons of forecasted and actual births for 2017 and 2018 showed that births were overestimated

in the forecast model

• RLS Demographics’ update of the birth forecasts includes:
• The latest AGC population forecast (Round 9.1)
• Updated analysis of age‐specific fertility rates using 2010 to 2018 historical birth data and U.S.

Census Bureau estimates of the distribution of the female population by age

• Updated analysis of age‐specific migration using U.S. Census Bureau estimates up to July 1, 2018
• Some key findings that informed the updated births model:
• It was found that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 2010 to 2015 was 1.44 and is estimated to

decline to 1.34 in the 2015 to 2020 period*

• There is a reduced level of in‐migration for the 20‐24 and 25‐29 age groups, compared with the

2016 model

* The updated migration uses the latest Census estimates extrapolated to 2020

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

36

By 2023, the latest birth forecast is 964 births lower than previously assumed

Source: APS, Planning & Evaluation. RLS Demographics, Oct. 2019. ACG, CPHD, Sept. 2018 and Sept. 2019.

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

3,408 3,750 2,786 2,934 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Actual and Forecasted Births

Comparison of Actual Births and Births Used in the Fall 2018 and Fall 2019 10‐Year Enrollment Projections

Prior Birth forecast (used in Fall 2018 projections) Updated birth forecast (for Fall 2019 projections) Actual births

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

• Enrollment

projections also rely

• n assumptions of

future residential construction from the county

• Future housing

accommodates new households and students

37

Net New Housing Unit Forecast for 2019 to 2029

Projection Year Multi‐family Garden Multi‐family Highrise Single‐family Detached Townhome Total Net New Units

2019 ‐ 1,275 ‐ ‐ 1,275 2020 12 2,188 ‐ 3 2,203 2021 36 1,230 ‐ ‐ 1,266 2022 ‐ 1,234 ‐ 27 1,261 2023 172 1,167 3 57 1,400 2024 12 1,325 ‐ 86 1,423 2025 32 1,324 ‐ 45 1,401 2026 ‐ 1,379 ‐ ‐ 1,379 2027 ‐ 1,379 ‐ ‐ 1,379 2028 85 1,232 ‐ ‐ 1,317 2029 99 1,178 ‐ ‐ 1,277 Total 448 14,911 3 218 15,581

Source: ACG, CPHD, Sept. 2019.

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

38

• The greatest

number of residential units are delivered in 2020

• Unit deliveries

are evenly distributed from 2021 to 2029

Source: ACG, CPHD, Housing Unit Forecast, Sept. 2018 and

• Sept. 2019, Development Tracking Report, 3Q2018 and

4Q2018, https://projects.arlingtonva.us/data‐ research/development/quarterly‐tracking‐report/.

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

127 1,275 2,203 1,266 1,300 1,400 1,423 1,464 1,379 1,379 1,317 1,277 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Net New Units

Comparison of Future Residential Units Assumed in the 10‐Year Fall 2018 and Fall 2019 Enrollment Projections

Actual net new units (3Q2018 and 4Q2018) Net new units (used in Fall 2018 Projections) Net new units (used in Fall 2019 Projections)

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

39

Source: * Rates are based on September 30, 2019 APS Enrollments (Grades K‐12) and July 1, 2019 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD) from Arlington County Government, CPHD, Planning Division. ** Rates are based on September 30, 2018 APS Enrollments (Grades K‐12) and July 1, 2018 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD) from Arlington County Government, CPHD, Planning Division.

A Student Generation Rate (SGR) is applied to each new unit to estimate the number of students from new residential development.

Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth

Comparison of Fall 2019 and Fall 2018 SGR

Multi‐family Elevator Multi‐family Garden Condo Grades K to 12 Single Family Detached Single Family Detached with Accessory Dwelling Townhome Duplex Market Rate Mixed Income CAF Only 1 Market Rate Mixed Income CAF Only Elevator Garden Total by School Fall 2019 Student Generation Rates * 0.498 N/A 0.214 0.345 0.066 0.127 0.656 0.254 0.383 0.632 0.055 0.113 0.232 Fall 2018 Student Generation Rates ** 0.497 N/A 0.194 0.358 0.061 0.126 0.617 0.258 0.380 0.584 0.054 0.110 0.229 Difference 0.001 N/A 0.020 (0.013) 0.005 0.001 0.039 (0.004) 0.003 0.048 0.001 0.003 0.003 2019 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD) housing by type shares 1 24.09% 0.03% 3.77% 2.27% 25.24% 7.86% 0.53% 8.55% 1.88% 2.99% 12.78% 10.00% 100.00%

1 Excludes Apartment Elevator Senior Housing