Population and Migration Statistics Committee 25 May 2011 Variant - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Feb 26, 2024 45 likes •147 views

Population and Migration Statistics Committee 25 May 2011 Variant Household Projections and Alternative Headship Rates Valerie Hale NRS: Household Estimates and Projections Variant Household Projections For the 2008-based household

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Population and Migration Statistics Committee 25 May 2011

Valerie Hale NRS: Household Estimates and Projections

Variant Household Projections and Alternative Headship Rates

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Variant Household Projections

For the 2008-based household projections both High and Low Migration variants were published. Further variants are now possible: High and Low Life Expectancy High and Low Fertility Zero Migration

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Variant Household Projections, Scotland

2,300,000 2,400,000 2,500,000 2,600,000 2,700,000 2,800,000 2,900,000 3,000,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Year Households

High Migration High Life Expectancy High Fertility Principal Low Fertility Low Life Expectancy Low Migration Zero Migration

High migration 2.9 million Zero migration 2.6 million

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Variant Household Projections, Dundee City

66,000 68,000 70,000 72,000 74,000 76,000 78,000 80,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Year Households

High Migration High Life Expectancy High Fertility Principal Low Fertility Low Life Expectancy Low Migration Zero Migration

Zero migration Low migration High migration

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Incorporating Survey Data

2008 household types

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1 adult male 1 adult female 1 adult, 1 child 1 adult, 2+ children 2 adults 2+ adult, 1+ children 3+ person all adult Projections SHS adjusted SHS APS

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Alternative Headship Rates

The effect that headship rates have on household projections was investigated with various options being tested:

Option 1 – Keep constant at 2001 headship rates Option 2 – Project trend to 2011 then keep constant Option 3 – mid-point between the projected trend from 1991 and 2001 Census points and the constant 2001 headship rate Option 4 – household proportions adjusted to Scottish Household Survey smoothed 2006-2008 proportions

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Alternative Headship Rates, Scotland

2,300,000 2,400,000 2,500,000 2,600,000 2,700,000 2,800,000 2,900,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Year Households Principal SHS adjusted Mid-point headship rates Projected 2011 headship rates 2001 headship rates

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Variant and Alternative Household Projections for 2033, Scotland

2,929,300 2,812,520 2,641,710 2,851,980 2,822,600 2,802,840 2,802,400 2,771,910 2,737,230 2,695,460 2,653,450 2,653,000

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 Zero Migration 2001 headships Projected 2011 headships Low Migration Mid-Point values Low Life Expectancy SHS adjusted Low Fertility Principal High Fertility High Life Expectancy High Migration Households

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For the 2010-based household

projections we propose publishing the principal projection plus the high and low migration projections only

We also intend to further investigate the

incorporation of survey data into the household projections

Future Work

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Variant and Alternative Household Projections for 2033, Scotland

2,929,300 2,812,520 2,641,710 2,851,980 2,822,600 2,802,840 2,802,400 2,771,910 2,737,230 2,695,460 2,653,450 2,653,000