Fertility, ethnicity and religion: recent trends in the UK Sylvie - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Fertility, ethnicity and religion: recent trends in the UK Sylvie - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Fertility, ethnicity and religion: recent trends in the UK Sylvie Dubuc UPTAP workshop, Leeds, 23-25 of March 2009 General project Demographic characteristics by ethnic and religious groups & projections with D. Coleman (co-I)

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Sylvie Dubuc

UPTAP workshop, Leeds, 23-25 of March 2009

Fertility, ethnicity and religion: recent trends in the UK

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General project

Demographic characteristics by ethnic and religious groups & projections

with D. Coleman (co-I)

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Why fertility estimates by ethnic and religious groups?

how ethnicity and religion may impact on fertility? social and cultural composition of the UK population,

changes and future expectations

To develop plausible fertility assumptions for population

projection models

No direct methods available

Fertility, ethnicity and religion: recent trends in the UK

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Ethnic groups show differences in fertility

For the UK, fertility rates by ethnic groups up to 2001 need to create / update existing rates, inter-censuses rates

Religious affiliation may support childbearing (norms

supporting childbearing, rejecting contraception/abortion)

No estimates available by religious groups for the UK Few reports on fertility estimates by religion (e.g. for Austria

(Goujon et al.2005,), for Europe (Kaufman, 2007)

Introduction

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Here LFS data (2001-2006) is used together

with the Own Child Method to produce fertility estimates by ethnic and religious groups from 1987 to 2006 at national level.

Ethnic and religious group

  • f the mother only

2001 census definitions (LFS 2001 to 2006)

Introduction

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Outline

The OCM and method refinements TFR trends and ASFRs patterns by ethnic groups,

1987-2006. Is there convergence between ethnic groups?

UK born and foreign born, impact on fertility.

Does country of up-bringing impact on reproductive behaviour?

TFR by religious groups.

Does religion matter?

Introduction

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Own Child Method

LFS data, household survey, yearly Surveys pooled across years Matching children to mothers within household Allowing reverse survival calculations

15 years estimates (14 prior to the survey)

Berthoud, 2001; Coleman and Smith,2005

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UK total fertility 1961 - 2006, from own-child method and vital registration 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

UK total fertility own-child UK total fertility vital registration

Figure 1. Total fertility from own-child method from LFS compared with ONS registration statistics, 1961 - 2006

Total Period Fertility Rate (TFR) Good agreement of ONS data with LFS-OCM data

Total Period Fertility Rate is the average number of children that women would have if they experienced the ASFRs for a particular year throughout their childbearing lives

TFR

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Refined Own Child Method

Retro-correction for mortality

  • Reverse survival table

using the ONS England & Wales death rates by age and sex between 1986 and 2006.

Matching children to women within family unit instead of

household to minimise possible mismatching

Correct for small underestimations

Variation 1.25% for all women 2000-2006 0.37% due to mortality correction underestimation vary across groups (1 to 2.7%)

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Total Period Fertility rate by ethnic group, 1987-2006

Fertility trends by ethnicity

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 TFR Wbritish Wother Caribbean Bafrican Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese

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1987-2006 ALL UK TFR: 1.78

Fertility estimates for women of mixed origin

Small numbers Mixed population: majority children

Group Period TFR CI95% UL CI95% LL Group Period TFR CI95% UL CI95% LL Mix-Africa 1987-2006 Mix-Asia 1987-2006 Mix-Carib 1987-2006 Mix-Other 1987-2006 Mix-Total 1987-2006 1.640 1.915 1.366 1.659 1.870 1.448 1.949 2.155 1.743 1.460 1.668 1.251 1.724 1.837 1.612 Mix-Africa 1987-2006 Mix-Asia 1987-2006 Mix-Carib 1987-2006 Mix-Other 1987-2006 Mix-Total 1987-2006 1.640 1.915 1.366 1.659 1.870 1.448 1.949 2.155 1.743 1.460 1.668 1.251 1.724 1.837 1.612

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WBritish

20 40 60 80 100 120 Births per 1,000 women

1 5

  • 1

9 2 5

  • 2

9 2

  • 2

4 3

  • 3

4 3 5

  • 3

9 4

  • 4

4 4 5

  • 4

9 Age group of mothers

WBritish

20 40 60 80 100 120 Births per 1,000 women

1 5

  • 1

9 2 5

  • 2

9 2

  • 2

4 3

  • 3

4 3 5

  • 3

9 4

  • 4

4 4 5

  • 4

9 1 5

  • 1

9 2 5

  • 2

9 2

  • 2

4 3

  • 3

4 3 5

  • 3

9 4

  • 4

4 4 5

  • 4

9 Age group of mothers

WOther

20 40 60 80 100 120 Births per 1,000 women

15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers

WOther

20 40 60 80 100 120 Births per 1,000 women

15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers

Delayed childbearing

Age Specific Fertility Rates of women by ethnicity

1987-1997 1998-2006

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White other UK-born versus foreign born

White Other foreign-born women

20 40 60 80 100 120 Births per 1,000 women

White Other UK-born women

20 40 60 80 100 120 Births per 1,000 women 1987-1997 1998-2006

immigration and delayed childbearing

(2/3 in 2002-2006)

15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers 15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers 15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers 15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers

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Indian

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Births per 1,000 women

1 5

  • 1

9 2 5

  • 2

9 2

  • 2

4 3

  • 3

4 3 5

  • 3

9 4

  • 4

4 4 5

  • 4

9 Age group of mothers

Indian

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Births per 1,000 women

1 5

  • 1

9 2 5

  • 2

9 2

  • 2

4 3

  • 3

4 3 5

  • 3

9 4

  • 4

4 4 5

  • 4

9 1 5

  • 1

9 2 5

  • 2

9 2

  • 2

4 3

  • 3

4 3 5

  • 3

9 4

  • 4

4 4 5

  • 4

9 Age group of mothers

Fertility decrease and delayed childbearing

1987-1997 1998-2006

Age Specific Fertility Rates of women by ethnicity

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Bangladeshi

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Births per 1,000 women

15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers

Bangladeshi

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Births per 1,000 women

15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers

Pakistani

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Births per 1,000 women

15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers

Pakistani

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Births per 1,000 women

15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers

Fall in fertility at all ages

Age Specific Fertility Rates of women by ethnicity

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UK-born Indian women: 5 years ASFRs

20 40 60 80 100 120 1987-1997 1998-2006

Age group of mothers Births per 1,000 women

Delayed fertility of the Indian UK-born…

Indian

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Births per 1,000 women

15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers

Indian

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Births per 1,000 women

15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 15-19 25-29 20-24 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age group of mothers

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Fertility and religion

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh Jew Other Not stated Religion TFR

TFR average 1988-2006 by religious groups

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TFR for Indian ethnic group by main religious denomination*

*Only the main religious groups are represented

Period All Muslim Indian Muslim 1988-1997 3.1 2.9 1998-2006 3.0 2.2 Comparison of TFR for All Muslim with Indian Muslim, 1988-2006

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Hindu Sikh Muslim TFR 1988-1997 1998-2006

50% 28% 13% % of Indian women (15-49 yrs) in 2006

Crossing Indian ethnicity and religion

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Conclusions (Method, Religion)

LFS-OCM

has been refined and provides good estimates for inter census fertility rates by ethnic and religious groups.

Differences exist in the TFR by religious groups No evidence for Christian faith supporting higher fertility

compared to non–religious.

Recent relatively low TFR of Indian Muslim compared to

all Muslim women, suggests ethnicity more than religion influences fertility behaviour.

socio-economic differences by ethnicity within Muslim group? Cultural influence of the region of origin (of immigrant generation) on

fertility behaviour independent of the religious affiliation?

Difference in the duration of settlement?

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Conclusions (ethnicity)

Converging

TFR between ethnic groups, albeit at different speeds.

Preliminary results for UK-born women by ethnicity

further support the “converging trends” hypothesis.

Ethnic fertility assumptions:

with stable flow of migration by ethnic groups the UK-born

proportion of the main ethnic minorities will increase

preliminary results of fertility estimates by UK-born women

suggest that less differences across groups (migration been constant) should be expected in the future decades.

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Finalise the fertility estimates

by ethnicity & by religious denominations Explore other sources

Other components of population projection models

Base population by sub-group Mortality Estimation of migration flows by ethnic groups

Run projections

Ongoing and future work

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Thank you

sylvie.dubuc@socres.ox.ac.uk