Family Planning and Fertility in South Africa under Apartheid - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Family Planning and Fertility in South Africa under Apartheid

Johannes Norling

norling@umich.edu

National government expenditure on family planning (millions of 2012 Rand)

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Total fertility rate

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Contraception and fertility

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Outline

Politics and family planning in apartheid-era South Africa Difference-in-differences empirical strategy Results and comparison with other countries

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Timeline

First grant to National Family Planning Association Begins to directly provide services National Family Planning Programme Population Development Programme

National government involvement in family planning

1963 1970 1974 1984

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Administrative partition into white areas and African homelands

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First reserves established Start of apartheid Pass laws repealed Bantustan independence (TVBC) Universal suffrage 1913 1948 1951 1959 late-1970s 1986 1994 Group Areas Act & Native Laws Amd. Pass laws extended to women

Timeline

First grant to National Family Planning Association Begins to directly provide services National Family Planning Programme 1963 1970 1974 1984 Population Development Programme

National government involvement in family planning

Homeland departments of health

“Control over health services, including family planning services, was a part of the plan for the independence for

• homelands. As various homelands declared themselves

“territories,” they were granted self-governing rights within their borders, and responsibility for health services was duly handed over to them.”

Department of Health, Annual Report, 1975

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Per-capita expenditure on family planning: Homeland government as share of national government

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Per-capita expenditure on family planning: Homeland government as share of national government

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Per-capita expenditure on health: Homeland government as share of national government

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Per-capita expenditure: Homeland government as share of national government

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Difference-in-differences

Event study First difference: Residents of white areas minus Residents of homelands

Second difference: Given year minus Year before funding began

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LINK

Other causes of white area/homeland fertility differences

Other causes of white area/homeland fertility differences

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LINK

1960 1970 1980 1991 Per-capita income in white areas divided by homelands 2.49 2.52 2.82 Ratio of men age 15–64 to women age 15–64 White areas 1.36 1.37 1.33 Homelands 0.55 0.62 0.69 Share of women age 15–64 who are married White areas 0.40 0.47 0.33 Homelands 0.33 0.45 0.37 Share of women age 15–64 who are working White areas 0.51 0.43 0.49 Homelands 0.32 0.16 0.14 Share of women age 15–64 employed in private residences White areas 0.27 0.19 0.25 Homelands 0.03 0.04 0.02

Birth history data sources

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1974 Fertility Survey 1987 Demographic and Health Survey 1994 and 1995 October Household Surveys 2008 National Income Dynamics Study

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Birth history data sources

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Birth information Sample Location 1974 Fertility Survey Children ever born Married women ages 15-44 Residence 1987 Demographic and Health Survey Complete birth history Married women ages 15-49 Birth and residence 1994 and 1995 October Household Surveys Complete birth history All women ages 12-54 Birth and residence 2008 National Income Dynamics Study Complete birth history All women [Birth] and residence

Likelihood of giving birth

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Difference-in-differences

Event study First difference: Residents of white areas minus Residents of homelands

Second difference: Given year minus Year before funding began

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LINK

One observation per black woman, i, per year, t

• b

= 1 if gave birth

• L

= 1 if live in a white area

• 1(t = y) = 1 if t=y for years y≠1969

𝑐𝑗𝑢 = 𝛽𝑀 + 𝛾𝑧1(𝑢 = 𝑧)

𝑧≠1969

+ 𝜀𝑧𝑀 × 1(𝑢 = 𝑧)

𝑧≠1969

+ 𝜁𝑗𝑢

Likelihood of giving birth: difference-in-differences

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Likelihood of giving birth: difference-in-differences

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Likelihood of giving birth: difference-in-differences

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Use of contraception among black women

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White areas Homelands Ever used 1974 32% 16% 1982 1987-89 70% 55% Currently using 1974 24% 11% 1987-89 50% 40%

Use of contraception among black women

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White areas Homelands Ever used 1974 32% 16% 1982 1987-89 70% 55% Currently using 1974 24% 11% 1982 51% 1987-89 50% 40%

Use of contraception among black women

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White areas Homelands Ever used 1974 32% 16% 1982 1987-89 70% 55% Currently using 1974 24% 11% 1982 51% 1987-89 50% 40% Months used 1987-89 44 41

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Children ever born

Children ever born

Residents of white areas Residents of homelands born in given cohort born in given cohort One observation per black woman age 40+, i, born in year group, t

• c

= Children ever born

• L

= 1 if live in a white area

• 1(t = y) = 1 if t=y for years y=1930-34,…,1965-69

𝑑𝑗𝑢 = 𝛾𝑧1 𝑢 = 𝑧

1965−69 𝑧=1930−34

+ 𝜀𝑧𝑀 × 1 𝑢 = 𝑧

1965−69 𝑧=1930−34

+ 𝜁𝑗𝑢

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LINK

Single difference: minus

Children ever born: first difference

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Timing of births: first difference

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Outcomes in adulthood

First difference: Children born in white areas minus Children born in homelands Second difference: Given year minus Year before funding began One observation per individual, i, born in five-year group, t, 1955-59,…,1985-89

• y

= outcome in adulthood

• L

= 1 if live in a white area

• 1(t = y) = 1 if t=y for years y≠1965-69
• M

= 1 if child is male

𝑐𝑗𝑢 = 𝛽𝑀 + 𝛾𝑧1(𝑢 = 𝑧)

𝑧≠1965−69

+ 𝜀𝑧𝑀 × 1(𝑢 = 𝑧)

𝑧≠1965−69

+ 𝛿𝑁 + 𝜁𝑗𝑢

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LINK

Completed standards of education: diff-in-diff

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Household income in 2008 (USD): diff-in-diff

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Summary

National government support of family planning responsible for

• Up to three percentage point drop in the likelihood of giving birth
• Delayed entrance into childbearing
• 0.5 – 1 fewer children per woman
• Higher income in adulthood for children born during the program

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Births to black women in white areas

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Dates Absolute reduction in children born per woman Percent reduction in children born per woman Cost per birth averted (2012 USD) South Africa 1970 – 1989 0.5 – 1 17 $3,761

Does availability of contraception influence fertility?

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Bangladesh (Simmons et al. 1991) 1978 – 1985 21 $384 Colombia (Miller 2009) 1964 – 1993 0.25 – 0.33 5 $124 – $167 Ethiopia (Portner et al. 2011) 1990 – 2004 1 20 Ghana (Phillips et al. 2006) 1993 – 1999 1 15 Indonesia (Gertler and Molyneaux 1994) 1982 – 1987 0.04 – 0.08 1 – 2 Iran (Modrek and Ghobadi 2011) 1967 – 2006 18 – 28 Peru (Angeles et al. 2005) 1985 – 1991 0.93 – 1.30 25 – 35 Tanzania (Angeles et al. 1998) 1970 – 1991 10.9 – 21.0

Family Planning and Fertility in South Africa under Apartheid

Johannes Norling

norling@umich.edu

Comparison of white areas and homelands

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White areas Homelands Difference Number of women 33,800 21,918 Average age 28.436 26.547 1.889*** (0.133) (0.081) (0.105) Share live in an urban area 0.555 0.158 0.397*** (0.005) (0.002) (0.004) Average standards of education 5.806 5.608 0.197*** (0.037) (0.022) (0.029) Share ever married 0.391 0.348 0.043*** (0.006) (0.003) (0.004) Share ever given birth 0.546 0.499 0.047*** (0.006) (0.004) (0.005) Age at first birth 21.117 21.157

• 0.040

(0.081) (0.049) (0.064) Age at most recent birth 33.423 35.351

• 1.928***

(0.203) (0.124) (0.161) Average number of births (excluding zero births) 2.602 2.913

• 0.311***

(0.029) (0.019) (0.023)

Spacing between births

One observation per child, i, born order j when mother was aged k

• l

= Months until next sibling is born

• O

= Order among mother’s children

• K

= Mother’s age at child’s birth

𝑚𝑗𝑘𝑙 = 𝛽𝑘1 𝑃 = 𝑘

𝑘≠1

+ 𝛾𝑙1 𝐵 = 𝑙

𝑙≠12

+ 𝜁𝑗𝑘𝑙

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LINK

Months until next siblings is born

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Months until next siblings is born

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