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WHY IS MIGRATION SO IMPORTANT? Why migration? German National Team - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
WHY IS MIGRATION SO IMPORTANT? Why migration? German National Team - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
WHY IS MIGRATION SO IMPORTANT? Why migration? German National Team 2014 Why migration? Washington Capitals 2018 Why migration? Birmingham Children Hospital, Cardiac Surgery Group ENGLAND Ohio State University Electrical Engineering Faculty
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Why migration?
German National Team 2014
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Why migration?
Washington Capitals 2018
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Why migration?
Ohio State University Electrical Engineering Faculty Oscar Nominees 2018 Birmingham Children Hospital, Cardiac Surgery Group ENGLAND
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Why migration? Sheikh Zayed Road, DUBAI 1980 2018
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Why migration?
Women Icons Award Ceremony SINGAPORE Filipino Maids SINGAPORE Filipino Students MANILA
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YET … PUBLIC OPINION SAYS …
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Why migration?
% giving this answer
Source: European Union:YouGov opinion polls, April 18-30 2018 United States: Gallup, Feb 1-10, 2018
Most important issues facing the United States and EU: Immigration
United States
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
15
Britain
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
39
France
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
41
Germany
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
43
Italy
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
47
Spain
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
26
Poland
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
42
Denmark
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
53
Sweden
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
49
Finland
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
53
Lithuania
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
35
Greece
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
51
Higher Rank Lower Rank
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Why migration?
Higher Rank
… the economy in general
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Lower Rank Higher Rank Lower Rank
Source European Union:YouGov opinion polls, April 18-30 2018 United States: Gallup, Feb 1-10, 2018
United States
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Britain
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
France
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Germany
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Italy
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Spain
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Poland
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Denmark
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Sweden
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Finland
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Lithuania
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Greece
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Most important issues facing the United States and EU:
… unemployment/jobs
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WHY ARE THERE SO MANY MIGRANTS?
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Trillion dollar gain: Wage increase upon immigration to the United States
0% 500% 1000% 1500% Nigeria Haiti Egypt Vietnam Ghana India Pakistan Indonesia Bangladesh Uganda Ethiopia Philippines Peru Brazil Colombia South Africa Thailand Turkey Mexico Argentina Dominican Rep
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Wage Density of Rural Emigrants in India
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Wage differences drive migration across the world
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Demography is Destiny Global Labor Force is shifting towards Low-Income Countries
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Labor Force Size (%)
High-income World Low-income
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Demography is Destiny Both High- and Low-income Economies are Ageing Rapidly
20 40 60 80 100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Dependency Ratios
Elderly in High-Income Youth in Low-Income
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Distance Diasporas Linguistic Overlap Violence
Of course, there are many other factors shaping migration …
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ARE THERE REALLY THAT MANY MIGRANTS?
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Global Migrant Stocks since 1960…
50 100 150 200 250 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Migrant population (millions)
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… have not changed much since 1960 as share of world population
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Migrant share of population (%)
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Globalization over time – different metrics since 1960
c
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
International Migrant Stock Foreign Direct Investment, 5-year MA (2010 USD) Air Passengers World Trade (2010 USD)
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WHAT IS DIFFERENT ABOUT MIGRATION? CONCENTRATION!!!
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Immigrant-to-population ratio in 2015
c
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Immigration has remained concentrated while emigration is becoming more dispersed
20 40 60 80 100 10 20 30 40 50 Share of global migration (%)
Cumulative distribution of immigrants and emigrants
1970 Immigration 1970 Emigration 2010 Immigration 2010 Emigration
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Top 300 (out of 40,000+ possible) corridors
20 40 60 80 100 50 100 150 200 250 300 Share of global migration (%)
Cumulative distribution of migration across corridors
1970 1990 2010
account for 75% of world migration
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Most migrants travel to neighboring countries. Only the high-skilled travel farther
20 40 60 80 100 5 10 15 20 Share of global migration (%)
Cumulative distribution of migrants by distance
High-skilled migrants Low-skilled migrants Refugees
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High-Skilled immigration is more concentrated than low-skilled immigration or emigration
20 40 60 80 100 10 20 30 40 50
Cumulative distribution of migrants by skill
Low-skill Emigration High Skill Emigration Low-skill Immigration High-skill Immigration
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Concentration continues within countries Distribution of High-Skilled Migrants in the US
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WHAT DOES CONCENTRATION IMPLY?
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Migrants are concentrated at the very high and low ends of the skill distribution in most countries
5 10 15 20 25 30
High School Dropouts High School Graduates Some College College Graduates Post-College All Education Groups Growth of population (%)
U.S. Immigration by education group
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Immigration has a positive impact on overall wages but lowers the wages of those with substitutable skills
The impact of immigration across education groups
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- 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
1 2 High School Dropouts High School Graduates Some College College Graduates Post-College All Education Groups Simulated wage impact (%) Native Workers Foreign Workers
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Migrants are concentrated at the low and high-ends of the wage distribution
Immigration levels along the wage distribution in Europe
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Immigration has a positive impact on overall wages but lowers the wages of those with similar skills
The impact of immigration along the wage distribution
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Overall wage effects are positive, but small across most OECD countries
0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
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The main impact of immigration is on relocation of native workers, not wages!
Wage and employment impact of Czech Commuters in Germany
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Natives who are close substitutes to migrants feel the largest impact
Turkish Employment Rate 2005-2014
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Who benefits from immigration?
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WHAT MATTERS ARE THE LONG-TERM IMPACTS
EDUCATION INTEGRATION GENDER
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Migrants are more educated than the native-born in both destination …
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… and origin countries
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Immigrants increase incentives to stay in school among natives
Malaysia – School attendance among natives increased with immigration of foreign workers
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Economic Integration determines the overall gains
Immigrant wage gaps since arrival by cohort in the United States
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Migrants move to better jobs – in terms of wages and status
Initial Occupational Placement and Improvement in the United States
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In response, native workers move to more skilled occupations
The impact of refugees on Danish low-skilled workers
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Possibility of emigration influences women more
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Brazil Chile China Egypt Ethiopia Ghana India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Romania 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Brazil Chile China Egypt Ethiopia Ghana India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Romania
Share of women among university students Share of singles among college educated migrant women to the US (age 25-35) 2010 1990
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Long-term Impacts of Migration – Low-skilled immigrants decrease childcare costs
Childcare costs and presence of migrants
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… which increases the labor supply of high-skilled native women
Presence of migrants and native female labor force participation
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Back to Filipino maids
Women Icons Award Ceremony SINGAPORE Filipino Maids SINGAPORE Filipino Students MANILA
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WHAT ABOUT POLICIES?
Data, data, data… and then more data
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Migration patterns are very complex; each migration experience is unique…
Paths of Syrian Refugees
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WHAT ABOUT POLICIES?
Listen to the markets e.g. temporary jobs – temporary programs e.g. permanent jobs – pathway to residency education strategy and global labor markets
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Undocumented Migrants Replace Temporary Migrants
Mexican migration to the United States, 1955-95
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Undocumented migrants hit a ceiling in terms of wages
Age-earnings profiles of immigrants and natives by legal status
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WHAT ABOUT POLICIES?
Listen to the markets Move to price mechanisms (fees/levies/tariffs) and away from quotas
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WHAT ABOUT POLICIES?
Adjustment/relocation assistance for natives … … and use the revenues to finance them
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CONCLUSION
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CONCLUSION
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