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The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 2025 Nice, France Christophe PILLOT October 4 th 2017 AVICENNE ENERGY Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 2016 The Li-ion battery value chain Christophe
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Presentation Outline
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
1000 2000 3000 2000 2016 Million Units / year Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Li-ion NiMH
165 M Portable PCs 195 M Tablets
100 200 300 400 2000 2016 Million Units/Year
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
2,6 0,15
1 2 3 2000 2016 $/Wh Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
7 000 211 000
50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 2000 2016 Tons Tons of cathode active materials
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 MWh Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 450 000 500 000 MWh
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid
50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 MWh
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 Billion US $ Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 Billion US$ OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI
SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
INDUSTRIAL
(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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(1) Cell level Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017
20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 M Wh
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2016
Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus
Electronic devices
Phones 17% Portable PC 66% Portable Electronics 17%
2000: < 2GWh 2016: 90 GWh
Electronic devices 35% Auto, E-bus
17% Auto, E-bus China 33% Industrial, ESS 5% Others 10%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017
10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 M$
Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, 2005-2016
Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus
Electronic devices
10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 M$
Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2016
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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Others for Small cells: Chinese suppliers like Tenpower, DLG… (1) LIB battery pack market Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2017
24% 7% 8% 19% 9% 5% 9% 3% 9%
8% 9% 10% 5% 4% 4% BAK AESC 2% First New Energy 3% YUASA 1% BYD 7% COSLIGHT 1% Microvast 2% CALB 2% A123 Wanxiang 1% Optimum 2% Zhuoneng 2% OTHERS 31%
Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Production cost
LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV pouch cell NMC
Operating profit Proces Yield Depreciation SGA, overhead R&D Utility Labor Material
Cathode cost 22% Anode cost 6% Electrolyte 6% Separator 7% Other materials 11% Depreciation 14% Direct labor 4% Energy, utilities 4% R&D 6% Sales & Adm 3% Overheads 3% Warranty 3% Margin 7% Cell Process Yield, Scraps 4%
Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2016
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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CATHODE HODE 211 OOO T in 2016 Revenues: 4,75 B$ CAGR 06/16: +14% ANODE 104 000 T Revenues: 1,16 B$ CAGR 06/16: +13% ELECTR CTROLYT OLYTE 103 000 T Revenues: 1,4 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 19% SEPARATOR OR 1 500 M m² Revenues: 1,6 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 15% CELL
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues: 22,5 B$ Gross margin: <10% ANCILLA ILLARY Revenues: 1,5 B$ PACK MANUFACTURERS Revenues: 31 B$ Gross margin: <10%
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M cells/year
Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
CAGR 16-25: + 6%
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 MWh Other Portable Electronics Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
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40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000 2016 2020 2025 MWh for Auto & E-buses E-buses PHEV & EV in China EV PHEV HEV
CAGR 2016-2025:+ 17%
45 GWh 110 GWh 185 GWh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included
0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Million TOYOTA OTHERS
USA JAPON EUROPE 0% 10% 20% 30% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Penetration of HEV
Growth 2015-2016: +2% From 1,8 M to 1,84 M HEV
1 2 3 4 200000 400000 600000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gasoline $ / Gallon HEV sales per year
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
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Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 P-HEV (units) OTHERS CHINA SAIC BYD OTHERS AUDI PORSCHE HYUNDAI VOLVO DAIMLER BMW HONDA MITSUBISHI VW FORD TOYOTA GM
+16%
US 24% JAPAN 2% EUROPE 38% CHINA 30% Others 6% USA Japan Europe China Others
40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 P-HEV (units)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
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Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EV (units)
Other China GAC DongFeng Nissan Chana JMC CHERY JAC Geely BAIC Zhidou Zotye Kandi BYD Others BOLLORE PSA Honda MITSUBISHI DAIMLER FIAT GM Ford KIA VW SMART BMW Toyota Renault NISSAN
+35%
US 16% JAPAN 4% EUROPE 21% CHINA 55% Others 4%
USA Japan Europe China Others
100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EV (units)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
24000 16000 88000 116000 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EV Bus PHEV Bus
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The Chinese government is working on addressing environmental issues. Central and local governments are engaged in subsidy policies to promote EV/PHV/FCV as new energy vehicles. The amount of subsidy for EV/FCV with low environmental impact is set high. As the subsidy policy is announced to be carried out until 2020, it is predicted that this market will be on an expansion trend centering on EV. However, due to the
illegally in 2015, the government has begun to strictly control the production of new energy vehicles after 2016.
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
17 YUTONG 18% KINGLONG 21%
ZHONGTONG
12% BYD 5% DONGFENG 5% GOLDEN DRAGON 4% FOTON 3% ANKAI 1% ASIASTAR 1% OTHERS 33%
The new energy bus market in China is mainly made up of EV with a large amount of subsidy from the government, and there are many cases where older makers also produce PHV. As a result of the illegal receipt of subsidy occurred in 2015, publication of the company name and administrative guidance (penalty) from the government were carried out. Consequently, several makers including King Long have significantly reduced their market share in 2016, and old makers such as Yutong and Zhong Tong are expanding their market shares.
YUTONG 15% KINGLONG 6%
ZHONGTONG
12% BYD 3% DONGFENG 1% GOLDEN DRAGON 2% FOTON 3% ANKAI 4% ASIASTAR 1% OTHERS 53%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
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Panasonic Sony NEC Maxell PEVE YUASA SAFT FIAMM BOLLORE SAMSUNG LG SK Kokam BYD GP Lishen COSLIGHT ATL BAK B&K Wanxiang (A123) LG Johnson-Controls Enersys SAFT SAMSUNG LG
Source: AVICENNE 2017 * OTHERS: Malaysia mostly (1) Government subsidies only
$ 562 M 3-5 GWh 2018 $ 5 Bn 35 GWh 2017 $ 562 M 3-5 GWh 2018 $ 600 M 1 GWh 2019 $ 1 700 M (1) 25 GWh 2025 $ 360 M 2-3 GWh 2018
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
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1- SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON CRITERIA 2- TIME TO MARKET
and time consuming.
Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.
material in the battery industry.
(1) Active material only
2016 2020 2025
3- BATTERY COST Average Cell price Average Pack price
100 200 300 400 500 2010 2016 2020 2025 $ / kWh
Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Depreciation Scraps Others Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Cathode (1)
100 200 300 400 Cell Pack Cell Pack CellPack $ / kWh Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
0,08 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,5 0,8
0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 2010 2015 2020 2025 Million cars
20
HEV: 1kWh battery / car
0,18 0,8 1,2 0,02 0,24 0,45 0,8
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 2010 2015 2020 2025 kWh / EV Million cars
1,1 2,1 3,0 3,9
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 2010 2015 2020 2025 % Li-ion HEV Million cars
0,35 0,65 1,05
PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car
0,45 1,25 2
China World Excl. China World Excl. China China World Excl. China
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
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40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 M Wh 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2010 2015 2020 2025 M $ 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 2010 2015 2020 2025 M $ 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2010 2015 2020 2025 M $ 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
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Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
Lead Acid Batteries 2016 +367 GWh for > US $ 33,4 Billion
79% 16% SLI Industry, ESS E-bikes Others 26% 22% 8% 44% Telecom UPS Other Stationary, ESS Motive
Industrial Batteries – Lead acid batteries 58 GWh for US $ 10,4 Billion
50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 450 000 500 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 GWh Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid
% In volume % In volume
medical, marine, others…
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 EV, E-Bus Portable SLI Others ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000
Lead Acid LIB Others
Others ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes
US $ 23 Billion for “other” applications
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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E-Bikes 13% Power Tools 8% Forklift 15% Other Motive 1% Telecom 14% UPS 12% ESS 13% Others 24%
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,… Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
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Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016
2016: 90 GWh 2025: 300 GWh
Electronic devices 40% Auto, E-bus
13% Auto, E-bus China 30% Industrial, ESS 6% Others 11% Electronic devices 18% Auto, E-bus
21% Auto, E-bus China 43% Industrial, ESS 7% Others 11%
16% 22% 22% 17% 6%
CAGR 15/25 (Realistic)
100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M Wh
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015
Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016
10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M$
Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, 2000-2025
Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E- bus China Auto, e- bus Excl. China Electronic devices
10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 45 000 50 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M$
Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2025
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
11% 11% 12% 8% 0% CAGR 15/25
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
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Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, … Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li- ion for HEV P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 15 B$ market in 2016 - 28 B$ in 2020 & 38 B$ in 2025 with high numbers in China (2016: US$ 3,6 Billion for xEV and US$ 4,8 Billion for xE-Buses) EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25 Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 2020. A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2025
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MWh
Others LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+0%) LIB for xEV (+13%) LIB for Others* (+12%)
25B$ 30B$ 63 B$ 94 B$ > 115 B$
210 GWh 325 GWh 628 GWh 847GWh
17 10 49
(CAGR 2016-2025)
38
(Pack level)
2,8
43B$
432 GWh
Battery Market 2015-2025 CAGR = +6% / Li-ion>+10%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Nice, France October 4th, 2017
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 % of the Global production Tons
30
0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 % of the Global production Tons 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 % of the Global production Tons (LCE)
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017