Material Supply and Demand 2016 2025 Mike SANDERS AVICENNE ENERGY - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Lithium-Ion Battery Raw Material Supply and Demand 2016 2025 Mike SANDERS AVICENNE ENERGY June 19 th , 2017 Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 2016 The Li-ion battery value chain Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY Mike SANDERS June 19th, 2017
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Presentation Outline
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
1000 2000 3000 2000 2016 Million Units / year Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Li-ion NiMH
165 M Portable PCs 195 M Tablets
100 200 300 400 2000 2016 Million Units/Year
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
2,6 0,15
1 2 3 2000 2016 $/Wh Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
7 000 211 000
50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 2000 2016 Tons Tons of cathode active materials
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 MWh Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
3
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 450 000 500 000 MWh
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid
50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 MWh
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
4
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 Billion US $ Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid
69 BILLION US$ in 2016 – Pack level1 8% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2006-2016)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 Billion US$ OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI
SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
INDUSTRIAL
(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
5
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 EV, E-Bus Portable SLI Others ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000
Lead Acid LIB Others
Others ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes
US $ 23 Billion for “other” applications
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
6
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
7
(1) Cell level Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017
90 000 MWh - 23 B$ (1) 5 675 M small cells
CAGR 2006/2016 +23 % per year in Volume
20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 M Wh
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2016
Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus
Electronic devices
Phones 17% Portable PC 66% Portable Electronics 17%
2000: < 2GWh 2016: 90 GWh
Electronic devices 35% Auto, E-bus
17% Auto, E-bus China 33% Industrial, ESS 5% Others 10%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
CAGR 2006/2016 +23% per year in Volume Cell: +17% per year in value Pack: +18% per year in value
8
Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017
10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 M$
Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, 2005-2016
Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus
Electronic devices
10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 M$
Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2016
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
+90 000 MWh - 23 B$ (1) 5 675 M small cells
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT
9
Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Production cost
LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV pouch cell NMC
Operating profit Proces Yield Depreciation SGA, overhead R&D Utility Labor Material
Cathode cost 22% Anode cost 6% Electrolyte 6% Separator 7% Other materials 11% Depreciation 14% Direct labor 4% Energy, utilities 4% R&D 6% Sales & Adm 3% Overheads 3% Warranty 3% Margin 7% Cell Process Yield, Scraps 4%
Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2016
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
10
CATHODE HODE 211 OOO T in 2016 Revenues: 4,75 B$ CAGR 06/16: +14% ANODE 104 000 T Revenues: 1,16 B$ CAGR 06/16: +13% ELECTR CTROLYT OLYTE 103 000 T Revenues: 1,4 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 19% SEPARATOR OR 1 500 M m² Revenues: 1,6 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 15% CELL
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues: 22,5 B$ Gross margin: <10% ANCILLA ILLARY Revenues: 1,5 B$ PACK MANUFACTURERS Revenues: 31 B$ Gross margin: <10%
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
11
Cathode raw materials market
LiCoO2 (LCO) LiMn2O4 (LMO) LiMPO4(1) (LFP) Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 – NCA
Source: SANYO, March 2011 (1) M= Fe or Mn Source: LME
50 100 150 $/kg
Ni & Co price 2003-2015
Ni Co
Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2012 – Nice
‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2010- 2016 (Demand)
(…)
LEADERS:
100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Tons LFP LMO NCA NMC LCO
Rationales
In 2016, LCO is used in pouch cells for electronic devices: smartphones, tablets, ultra thin portable PCs NMC is used in other electronic devices & xEV NCA is used by 18650 Panasonic cells in Tesla cars and as a blend with LMO in other xEV LMO is mostly used as a blend with NMC in xEV LFP is used in xEV, e-buses in China and for industrial applications
12
67 000 211 000
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
13
LCO demand details LCO Offer in 2016 LCO summary of outlook
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
LCO Price forecasts
10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tons
LCO: Tablets, Smartphones
Others Industrials E-bus xEV China xEV
UMICORE 15% NICHIA 8% ShanShan 10% Xiamen Tungsten (XTC) 7% Reshine 9% B&M 12% L&F 16% Pulead 12% Easpring 9% Others 2%
19 29 19 21 21 14 9 7 6 5 10 20 30 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 $ / kg
Material Others Demand:
LCO was used in most of the pouch cell lithium ion batteries for electronic devices like smartphones & tablets. Most OEM (Samsung, Apple, etc..) confirm that LCO will be the first choice for the future. Then, for portable PCs, penetration of LCO will increase thanks to thinner high end portable PC using pouch cells. LCO will not be used in large format cells where NMC is preferred.
Price: if the metal price are stable from 2016 to 2025, small cost decrease thanks to scale economy. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (Pulead, ShanShan, Reshine) will keep the lead. Not sure that Nichia will stay at the top. Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg – Co price @ 56$/kg in June 2017 !
ELEC
CHINA 61% OTHERS 39%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
14
NMC demand details NMC Offer in 2016 NMC evolution
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
NMC Price forecasts
Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg - – Ni stable @ 12$/kg / Co price @ 56$/kg in June 2017 ! 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tons
NMC: Electronics, EV, others
Others Industrials E-bus xEV China xEV Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets UMICORE 12% NICHIA 9% ShanShan 12% Jinhe 7% Xiamen Tungsten 10% L&F 9% Pulead 1% Kelong 2% Easpring 8% Tianjiao 6% Dahua 2% Internal 14% Others 8%
10 20 30 40 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 $ / kg
NMC 532 NMC 622 NMC 811 NMC 111 0% 50% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 811 622 532 111
Demand: Except xEV in China, NMC is driven by xEV: Nissan will switch from NCA-LMO to NMC for example. Then, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda all choose NMC. From 2012 to 2016 the clear trend was to switch from LMO-NMC 75/25 to LMO-NMC 25/75. LG, Panasonic and Samsung agreed that NMC will be the 1st choice for xEV first in Japan, US and Europe, and then, in 2020 in China. Price will decrease thanks to process manufacturing improvement. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (ShanShan) will keep the lead. LG and Samsung will outsource more (Internal part will decrease). As new entrant, BASF try to be on this market since 2011. There market share may increase.
NMC summary of outlook
ELEC AUTO E-Bus IND OTH
CHINA 55% OTHERS 45%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
15
NCA demand details NCA Offer in 2016 NCA evolution
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
NCA Price forecasts
Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium hydroxide stable @ 12 $/kg - – Ni stable @ 12$/kg BUT Co price @ 56$/kg in June 2017 ! Demand: NCA are also used in electronic devices, in prismatic and cylindrical cells. Main NCA users in electronic devices are Panasonic, Sony and Samsung. They will keep using NCA but LCO will stay the first choice. Panasonic and Samsung confirm that they supply more and more power tools mfg with NCA (from 15% in 2015 to 25% in 2025). Other NCA usage is of course for the TESLA. We do not think TESLA will switch for another technology in the next years. Price decrease thanks to better mfg. process Supplier: Sumitomo will keep the lead thanks to Panasonic / Tesla. Toda Kogyo market share will probably increase thanks to BASF partnership.
NCA summary of outlook
ELEC AUTO IND OTH
10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tons
NCA: Tesla
Others Industrials E-bus xEV China xEV Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets
SUMITOMO 73% TODA KOGYO 10% ECOPRO 5% Nihon Kagaku Sangyo 5% KELONG 5% Others 2%
10 20 30 40 50 2010 2015 2020 2025 $ / kg
Material Others 0% 50% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 Ni 90% Ni 87% Ni 83%
CHINA 7% OTHERS 93%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
16
LFP demand details LFP Offer in 2016 LFP summary of outlook
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
LFP Price forecasts
LFP demand is driven by xEV, E-Bus in China, e-bikes and Stationary application. Chinese industrial agreed that E-bikes, e- bus and stationary app will use LFP for the next 10 years. The cost and the life time are the main criteria and Energy density is not so important. Then, Chinese xEV mfg. (BYD, Kandi, Zotye, Baic, Chery…) told us that they will switch from LFP to NMC. Price: Process manufacturing cost will decrease. Pulead forecast price @ 11-12$/kg in 2025. Suppliers: Pulead will probably increase market share thanks to new contract with BYD and others Chinese battery mfg. Assumption: 2016-2025 : Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg
20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tons
LFP: Industrial, E-Bus
Others Industrials E-bus xEV China xEV Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets
Pulead 13% JOHNSON MATTHEY 4% ALEEES 3% Tatung 1% Zhuoneng 6% Kelong 2% STL 5% BTR Energy 3% BYD 8% Internal 27% Others 28%
Internal: BYD, Hefei Guoxuan High Tech Power source (Gxgk), Huanyu Power Source Co., Ltd., LG, A123 (Wanxiang EV Co., Ltd), Hi Power - Others: Hunan Haorun Technology, Henan Tianke, Likai , Tiehu Energy and many others
5 10 15 20 25 30 2010 2015 2020 2025 $ / kg
Material Others
AUTO E- BUS IND OTH
CHINA 92% OTHERS 8%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
17
LMO demand details LMO Offer in 2015 LMO summary of outlook
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
LMO Price forecasts
Demand: LMO is almost never the first choice for Lithium ion
LMO is used in power tools and will be used, blended with NMC. So, for the future, LMO demand will be mostly driven by NMC/LMO blended cathode used in EV worldwide, EV in China to replace LFP (2020) and later E-bus in China (2025). Price: LMO price decreased a lot from 2010 to 2015. We think we almost achieve the lowest possible level. Suppliers: Most of the supply will stay in China (ShanShan, Qyanyun, …).
Assumption: Lithium carbonate price 2016 – 2025 stable @ 10 $/kg
AUTO OTH
2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tons
LMO: AUTO
Others Industrials E-bus xEV China xEV Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets
Nichia 5% Nippon Denko 4% Yuan Yuan 5% JGC 12% Qyanyun 14% ShanShan 9% Others 18% Reshine 9% Mitsui 12% POSCO ESM 12% 5 10 15 2010 2015 2020 2025 $ / kg
Material Others
CHINA 60% OTHERS 40%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
Cathode active materials 2000-2025 - Tons Cathode active materials in 2016 > 210 000 Tons
18
ASSUMPTIONS: Portable devices: 2015-2025: +6% per year in volume HEV: 2,5 M HEV/year in 2020, 3,3 M HEV in 2025 P-HEV: 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 EV: 0,4 M EV/year in 2020 + 0,7 M in China, 0,7 M/year + 1 M in China in 2025, 100% LIB Industrial & stationary: 2015-2025: +16% per year Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (+250 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)
LCO 21% NMC 26% NCA 9% LMO 8% LFP 36%
Cathode active materials in 2025 540 000 Tons
LCO 12% NMC 54% NCA 12% LMO 1% LFP 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tons LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
19
LIB Anode Materials
Source: Hitachi Chemical Source: Sanyo, March 2013
LIB Anode market, (Tons) LIB Anode Materials
Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Tons
LTO Si or Sn Type Amorphous Carbon Artificial Graphite Natural Graphite
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
20
Natural graphite become a commodity
Source: Hitachi Chemical
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
LEADERS:
Hard Carbon Soft Carbon Graphite
Capacity (/g) 400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g Capacity (/cc) ++ + Power ++ + Stability ++ + Cyclability ++ + Precursors
Petroleum Pitch, Resin, cellulose, wood, coconuts… Petroleum coke Natural or petroleum coke
COST 2015->2020 25 -> 20 $/kg 20->15 $/kg 7-13-> 6-10 $/kg SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI BTR…
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Natural Graphite 46% Artificial Graphite 43% Amorphous 7% Si or Sn Type 2% LTO 2% Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2016)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
21
Natural Graphite demand details NG Offer in 2016 NG summary of outlook NG Price forecasts
Demand: small growth because new app. Need artificial Gr. This demand may change if the price decrease is more important for NG compare to AG. Price: The price will decrease fast because the supply is
10 000 Tons, Shinzom: 10 000 Tons, Sinuo: 8 000 Tons, Qingdao: 8 000 Tons, Jianxi Zhentuo: 7000 Tons, Kimwan: 5 000 Tons…). Then, a lot of new projects in China and Canada: Focus Graphite > 40000 Tons/year (2020*), Northern Graphite > 20 000 Tons/year (after 2018*) Syrah Resources Ltd. > 80 000 Tons (2020*) Suppliers: BTR and new Chinese (Zichen thanks to ATL, - Shinzom thanks to BYD, CATL – Sinuo etc…). New entrant like Focus Graphite, Northern Graphite, or Syrah Resources Ltd. May change the market share in the future 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tons
HITACHI 11% Shenzhen BTR 49% Mitsubishi 16% Nippon Carbon 4% POSCO Chemtech 4% Others 16%
CHINA 65% OTHERS 35% Typical Product D50= 16 mm 350 mAh/g 5% irreversible cap. BET: 1m²/g
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2010 2015 2020 2025 $ / kg
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
* Subject to financing
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
22
Artificial Graphite demand details Artificial Graphite Offer in 2016 Artificial Graphite summary of outlook
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Artificial Graphite Price forecasts
Demand: The demand will increase fast thanks to xEV market. Long life time requirement involve high level of purity and high consistancy, difficult to achieve with Natural Graphite. Price will decrease fast thanks to better process efficiency, new process Supply: Thanks to the best quality, Hitachi will keep the lead but Chinese main suppliers market share will increase (ShanShan mostly). Production Capacity: Hitachi: 15 000 Tons, ShanShan: 15 000 Tons project in Lingang Park (Shanghai) to add 20 000 Tons/year, Mitsubishi: 7 000 Tons, JFE: 7000 Tons, Showa Denko: 3000 Tons 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tons
HITACHI 31% Shanshan 38% Mitsubishi 9% JFE 11% Showa Denko 5% Others 6%
CHINA 45% OTHERS 55%
Typical Product D50= 20 mm 365 mAh/g 1-5% irreversible cap. BET: 0,5m²/g 5 10 15 20 25 2010 2015 2020 2025 $ / kg
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LIB separator market, M$ - CAGR 2006/2016: +15% Supplier, market share in 2016
23
Others: Shanghai Energy, Newmi, JGP, TDK, In house (BYD), Mingzhu, Tianfeng, Yiteng, BNE… 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 M$ Mm² ASAHI 17% TORAY 15% SUMITOMO 6% ENTEK 4% SK 9% CELGARD 8% UBE 6% Senior 3% Green 3% Others 19% Jinhui 4% W-Scope 6% Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
In February 2015, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy Storage segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore’s battery separator business
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LIB electrolyte market, Tons, CAGR 2006/2016: +28% LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in 2016
24
20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Tons
Portables electronics Power Tools E-bikes Automotive (12v, HEV, PHEV, EV) Auto & E-Bus China Industrial
Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong
Ube 4% Mitsubishi 12% In-House 9% Tomiyama 3% PANAX-ETEC 8% Zhangjiagang Guotai- Huarong 15% Mitsui 3% Jinniu 8% Capchem 14% Shanshan 8% Soulbrain 5% TINCI 6% Others 5% Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) 2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C)
25
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M cells/year
Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
CAGR 16-25: + 6%
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 MWh Other Portable Electronics Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
By country By car makers By battery chemistry
AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts Battery chemistry forecasts Battery cost forecasts
26
40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000 2016 2020 2025 MWh for Auto & E-buses E-buses PHEV & EV in China EV PHEV HEV
CAGR 2016-2025:+ 17%
45 GWh 110 GWh 185 GWh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
27
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014) > 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)
TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2017 TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Dec 2016
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
PANASONIC NISSAN Motor US Sony BYD LG Chem JCI A123 Sanyo Ener1 Nissan-Renault (Fr) Dow Kokam GS YUASA SB Limotive Hitachi Vehicle Energy Lithium Energy Japan Rusnano-Thunder Sky LG Chem Nissan - Renault (UK) Toshiba Blue Energy Nissan-Renault (Port) Lishen BAK SAFT US SAFT Hitachi Vehicle Energy AESC Japon NEC Tokin Mitsubishi H.I. SK Energy Panasonic EV LiTec GmbH TESLA (2014-2017) BYD (2013 - 2015) ATL (2014 - 2017)
M$ Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
(Invest end 2016) Average 2012-2014 Investments: 250 $ / kWh
2014 – 2017 TESLA, ATL, BYD Investments: 150 $ / kWh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
28
China – 53% USA – 2% EU -<1% Japan – 20% Korea – 17%
Panasonic Sony NEC Maxell PEVE YUASA SAFT FIAMM BOLLORE SAMSUNG LG SK Kokam BYD GP Lishen COSLIGHT ATL BAK B&K Wanxiang (A123) LG Johnson-Controls Enersys SAFT SAMSUNG LG
Others* – 7%
Source: AVICENNE 2017 * OTHERS: Malaysia mostly (1) Government subsidies only
Korean companies start to move in Malaysia New production capacity in Europe and US
$ 562 M 3-5 GWh 2018 $ 5 Bn 35 GWh 2017 $ 562 M 3-5 GWh 2018 $ 600 M 1 GWh 2019 $ 1 700 M (1) 25 GWh 2025 $ 360 M 2-3 GWh 2018
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago). So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.
29
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
30
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
31
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns
In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects
Background
Mobile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”) In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
Automotive
Aircraft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing. With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
LIB cell average cost (40 Ah pouch) (EV design ; NMC cathode) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV
32
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year (1) Active materials only
2020 2025 2015
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack
$ / kWh Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2010 2015 2020 2025 $ / kWh Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Depreciation Scraps Others Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Cathode (1)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
33
Source: Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles, Nature Climate Change , March 2015
Avicenne Energy
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
0,08 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,5 0,8
0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 2010 2015 2020 2025 Million cars
34
HEV: 1kWh battery / car
HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured
0,18 0,8 1,2 0,02 0,24 0,45 0,8
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 2010 2015 2020 2025 kWh / EV Million cars
EV manufactured
1,1 2,1 3,0 3,9
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 2010 2015 2020 2025 % Li-ion HEV Million cars
0,35 0,65 1,05
PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car
0,45 1,25 2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR 2016-2025: +17% Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$) CAGR 2016-2025: +12%
35
40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 M Wh 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2010 2015 2020 2025 M $ 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
36
Pack Level CAGR 2015-2025: +11% Cell Level CAGR 2016-2025: +12%
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 2010 2015 2020 2025 M $ 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2010 2015 2020 2025 M $ 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
37
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016
From 90 GWh in 2016 to 300 GWh CAGR 2016/2025 +15 % per year in Volume
2016: 90 GWh 2025: 300 GWh
Electronic devices 40% Auto, E-bus
13% Auto, E-bus China 30% Industrial, ESS 6% Others 11% Electronic devices 18% Auto, E-bus
21% Auto, E-bus China 43% Industrial, ESS 7% Others 11%
16% 22% 22% 17% 6%
CAGR 15/25 (Realistic)
100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M Wh
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015
Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
38
Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016
10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M$
Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, 2000-2025
Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E- bus China Auto, e- bus Excl. China Electronic devices
10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 45 000 50 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M$
Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2025
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
11% 11% 12% 8% 0% CAGR 15/25
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
39
Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, … Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li- ion for HEV P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 15 B$ market in 2016 - 28 B$ in 2020 & 38 B$ in 2025 with high numbers in China (2016: US$ 3,6 Billion for xEV and US$ 4,8 Billion for xE-Buses) EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25 Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 2020. A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2025
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MWh
Others LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+0%) LIB for xEV (+13%) LIB for Others* (+12%)
25B$ 30B$ 63 B$ 94 B$ > 115 B$
210 GWh 325 GWh 628 GWh 847GWh
17 10 49
(CAGR 2016-2025)
38
(Pack level)
2,8
43B$
432 GWh
Battery Market 2015-2025 CAGR = +6% / Li-ion>+10%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 June 19th, 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA
40