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The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018-2030 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018-2030 Christophe PILLOT Director, AVICENNE ENERGY May 28 th , 2019 Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 2018 The Li-ion battery value chain Li-ion battery

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SLIDE 1

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018-2030

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Christophe PILLOT May 28th, 2019

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

Presentation Outline

  • The rechargeable battery market in 2018
  • The Li-ion battery value chain
  • Li-ion battery material market
  • Focus on xEV batteries
  • Forecasts & conclusions
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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

AGENDA

The market in 2018 by technology, applications & battery suppliers Li-ion components market & value chain xEV market in 2018 xEV forecasts up to 2030 Industrial, stationary & ESS applications 2018-2030 Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2030

2

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007-2018

3

1 2 3 4 5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)

AAB 2012 AVICENNE 2018 ROLAND BERGER 2011 ROLAND BERGER 2012 DEUTSCHE BANK 2012 IIT (MARCH 2011) AAB 2017 AVICENNE 2015

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

OEM INVESTMENT IN VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION

Ford will invest $11 billion by 2022 to launch 40 new electric cars and hybrids worldwide Volkswagen plan to spend $40 Billion by 2030 to build electrified versions of its 300-plus global models Daimler will spend at least $11,7 billion to introduce 10 pure electric 40 hybrid models Nissan pledged to launch 8 new electric vehicles and hit annual sales of 1 million electrified vehicles by 2022 Toyota will launch 10 Evs by the early 2020s and sell 5,5 million electrified vehicles, including hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, by 2030 BMW will offer 25 electrified (12 fully electric) vehicles by 2025 GM pledging to sell 20 all-electric vehicles by 2023 Honda says two-thirds of total car sales to be electrified models by 2030 Chinese automakers, all have publicized aggressive investment plans

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Carmakers to invest more than $90 Billion in EV

Source: Ted Miller, Ford, AABC Japan 2018 (From Reuters Jan 2018 Publication) – Avicenne Energy

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

CARMAKERS TO INVEST MORE THAN $300 BILLION IN EV

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Source: Reuters January 2019, Avicenne Energy

91 42 20 15 14 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 3,9 2,5 2,3 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,3

50 100

Volkswagen Daimler Hyundai Changan Toyota Ford Fiat Chrysler Nissan Renault Tesla GM Great Wall (China) BMW GAC JAC Mahindra (India): Geely SAIC Dongfeng BYD BAIC Jaguar Land Rover Tata (India) PSA Volvo Honda Chery FAW Mazda

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET OVERVIEW

6 Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, AVICENNE ENERGY 2019 (1) Non rechargeable – Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, Avicenne – Based on selling price from manufacturer to retailer

69 75 81 12,5 13 14 2016 2017 2018 Battery market in value (2016-2018, global, $bn, all market segments, all technologies)

Expected CAGR 18-30 (%)

+8% ~ +2-3 % +7-9%

82 88

(1)

Primary Rechargeable

95

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC

500 1000 1500 2000 2000 2018 Million Units / year Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Li-ion NiMH

164 M Portable PCs 155 M Tablets

100 200 300 400 2000 2018 Million Units/Year

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

2,6 < 0,15

1 2 3 2000 2018 $/Wh Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

7 000 > 340 000

100000 200000 300000 400000 2000 2018 Tons Tons of cathode active materials

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 MWh Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 MWh

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2018

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (>70% market share)

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2018

37,5 40

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Billion US $ Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid

80 BILLION US$ in 2018 – Pack level1 9% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2010-2018)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1990 2005 2014 2016 2018

Billion US$ OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

INDUSTRIAL

  • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others
  • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others

(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators, drones, Light Electric Vehicles, Hoverboard, …

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 2018: US $ +80 BILLION

10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 EV, E-Bus Portable SLI Others ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000

Lead Acid LIB Others

Others ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes

US $ 27 Billion for “other” applications

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2018

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Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019

Lead Acid Batteries 2018 420 GWh for > US $ 37 Billion

75% 17% 3% 4% 1%

SLI Industry, ESS E-bikes LSEV Others 22% 20% 13% 45% Telecom UPS Other Stationary, ESS Motive

Industrial Batteries – Lead acid batteries 69 GWh for US $ 11 Billion

% In volume % In volume

medical, marine, others…

In volume (MWh)

100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 MWh Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

LI-ION IN 2018 - MAIN APPLICATIONS

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(1) Cell level Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019

>160 000 MWh - 31 B$ (1)

CAGR 2008/2018 +24 % per year in Volume

  • 20 000

40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 M Wh

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2017

Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus

  • Excl. China

Electronic devices

Phones 17% Portable PC 66% Portable Electronics 17%

2000: < 2GWh 2018: 160 GWh

Electronic devices 20% Auto, E-bus

  • Excl. China

20% Auto, E-bus China 44% Industrial, ESS 5% Others 11%

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS

RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 60 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT

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Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Production cost

LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV pouch cell NMC

Depreciation SGA, overhead R&D Utility Labor Material

Cathode cost 27% Anode cost 7% Electrolyte 6% Separator 5% Other materials 19% Depreciation 15% Direct labor 2% Energy, utilities 5% R&D 6% Sales & Adm 3% Warranty 5%

Average cost structure of Li-ion cell

Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2019

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND

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CATHODE

270 OOO T in 2017 2018: 345 000 Tons Revenues: 7,2 B$ CAGR 08/18: +13%

ANODE

170 000 T in 2017 2018: 220 000 Tons Revenues: 1,8 B$ CAGR 08/18: +19%

ELECTRO ROLYTE

145 000 T in 2017 2018: 190 000 Revenues: 2 B$ CAGR 08/18 : 25%

SEPARATOR

2 000 M m² in 2017 2018: 2500 M m² Revenues: 1,9 B$ CAGR 08/18 : 15%

CELL

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues 2018: 27 B$ Margin: < 0% (!)

ANCILLARY RY

Revenues: 2,6 B$ 2018: 3 B$

PACK MANUFACTURERS Revenues 2018: 35 B$

Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2019

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

LIB CATHODE MATERIAL

Cathode raw materials market

LiCoO2 (LCO) LiMn2O4 (LMO) LiMPO4(1) (LFP) Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 – NCA

Source: SANYO, March 2011 (1) M= Fe or Mn Source: LME Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2012 – Nice

‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17

20 40 60 80 100 120 $/kg

‘18

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS

Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2010- 2018 (Demand)

(…)

LEADERS:

  • 50 000

100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Tons LFP LMO NCA NMC LCO

Rationales

In 2018, LCO is used in pouch cells for electronic devices: smartphones, tablets, ultra thin portable PCs NMC is used in other electronic devices & xEV NCA is used by 18650 & 27100 Panasonic cells in Tesla cars and as a blend with LMO in other xEV LMO is mostly used as a blend with NMC in xEV LFP is used in xEV, e-buses in China and for industrial applications

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67 000 > 345 000

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS 2000-2030

Cathode active materials 2000-2030 - Tons Cathode active materials in 2018 350 000 Tons

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ASSUMPTIONS: Portable devices: 2017-2030: +4% per year in volume HEV: 4,3 M HEV/year in 2020, 11 M HEV in 2025 & 24 M in 2030 P-HEV: 0,8 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 2,3 M in 2025 & 5 M in 2030 EV: 2,2 M EV/year in 2020 (1,4 M in China) / 5,4 M/year in 2025 (3 M in China) 100% LIB, 12 M EV in 2030 (> 5 M in China) Industrial, stationary & other applications 2016-2030: +15% per year in volume Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (+600 000 EV sold per year in 2030 – TESLA forecast 500 000 in 2025)

LCO 11% NMC 41% NCA 9% LMO 5% LFP 34%

Cathode active materials in 2030 1 670 000 Tons

LCO 2% NMC 87% NCA 6% LFP 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

  • 200 000

400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000 1 400 000 1 600 000 1 800 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 Tons LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%)

Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2019

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2018 2,5 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, 2000 - 2018 Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2000-2018

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Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Million TOYOTA OTHERS

USA JAPON EUROPE 0% 10% 20% 30% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Penetration of HEV

Growth 2017-2018: +9% From 2,3 M to 2,5 M HEV

Gazoline price impact on HEV market in the US

1 2 3 4 200000 400000 600000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Gasoline $ / Gallon HEV sales per year

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE > 535 000 IN 2018

World excl. China growth +18% Chinese Growth + 100% China is leading the P-HEV market thanks to high incentives

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Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2019 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 P-HEV (units) OTHERS CHINA EUROPE US

+37%

US 22% EUROPE 32% CHINA 35% Others 11%

USA (+40%) Japan (-30%) Europe (+25%) China (+100%) Others

  • 20 000

40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 P-HEV (units)

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 EV (units) OTHERS CHINA EUROPE US

EV SOLD WORLDWIDE> 1,4 M IN 2018

World excl. China growth > 65% Chinese Growth > 65% China is leading the EV market thanks to high incentives

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Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2019

> 65%

US 17% EUROPE 16% CHINA 63%

OTHERS 4% USA (+130%) Japan (+50%) Europe (+30%) China (+70%)

  • 100 000

200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 900 000 1 000 000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 EV (units)

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2018 WORLDWIDE

The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share in 2018 in volume (small cells only) 8,2 B cells

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Others for Small cells: Chinese suppliers like Tenpower, DLG… (1) LIB battery pack market Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2019

The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share in 2018 in value(1) Estimated at B$ 40 in 2018

17% 8% 15% 14% 7% 2% 11% 7% 12%

6% 8% 9% 10% 4% 4% 6% LISHEN 2% BAK 1% AESC 1% First New Energy 3% YUASA 2% 6% COSLIGHT 1% Microvast 2% CALB 2% A123 Wanxiang 1% Optimum 3% Zhuoneng 2% OTHERS 29%

Others Auto

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

CHINESE XEV BATTERY SHIPMENTS

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Top 4 (CATL, BYD, GXGK, Lishen) delivered 67% of xEV batteries Only 3-4 companies are able to order 8000 Tons of cathode

Source: IEK, ITRI, Shenzhen, May 2019

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS 2018-2030

Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Tablets Power Bank Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars, Toys Drones Hoverboard E-bikes Power tools Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV, E-buses Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large)

Applications covered Parameters analysis

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Main segment trends Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time) Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor, 2018 -2030 Forecasts OEM strategies and positions Main drivers & limiters

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

2030 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

2000-2030 LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) 2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C)

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1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M cells/year

Li-Pouch Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

CAGR 17-30: + 4%

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030

MWh Other Portable Electronics Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 27 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (25 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (23 years ago). So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

SAFETY ISSUES

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Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

Background

Mobile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”) In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Automotive

Aircraft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing. With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

LI-ION BATTERY COST 2018-2025

LIB cell average cost (40 Ah pouch) (EV design ; NMC622 cathode) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV

27

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year (1) Active materials only

2020 2025 2018

50 100 150 200 250 Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack

$ / kWh Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode

  • 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2010 2018 2020 2025 $ / kWh Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Depreciation Scraps Others Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Cathode (1)

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2019

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

0,08 0,2 0,4 0,9 1,5 0,3 0,5 0,8 2,5 6,0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 Million cars

HEV, P-HEV, EV 2030 FORECASTS

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HEV: 1kWh battery / car

HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured

1 1,7 3,6 6,4 0,5 0,9 2,9 7,4

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 kWh / Pack Million cars

EV manufactured

1,1 2,2 3,4 5,2 14,0 29,0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 % Li-ion HEV Million cars

0,7 1,2 7,5

PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car

1 6,5 13,8

China World Excl. China World Excl. China China World Excl. China

Realistic Scenario

3,4 2,6

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

LONG TERM EV FORECAST

29

(1) EIA – Avicenne estimation based on “Stock” numbers

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 – 2030

AAB, AABC US, June 2017 BNEF, BATTERIES 2017, October 2017 AVICENNE Analysis 2018 AVICENNE 2018 (Base) BNEF 2017 TOTAL 2017 High TOTAL 2017 Low EIA (1) AVICENNE 2018 (Realist) Navigant (2017) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)

AAB HIGH 2017 AAB LOW 2017

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR XEV 2030 FORECASTS

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Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR 2015-2030: +26%

200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 M Wh

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus E-bus excl. China

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$) CAGR 2015-2030: +18%

  • 20 000

40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 M $

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China E-Bus excl. China

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION

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China – 60% USA – 2% EU -<1% Japan – 17% Korea – 15%

Panasonic NEC Maxell PEVE YUASA SAFT FIAMM BOLLORE SAMSUNG LG SKI Kokam CATL BYD Optinum Nano Hefei Guoxuan BAK LISHEN FARASIS EVE Wanxiang (A123) Coslight LG SAMSUNG PANASONIC … LG Johnson-Controls Enersys SAFT … TESLA SAMSUNG LG

Others* – 5%

Source: AVICENNE 2019 * OTHERS: Malaysia mostly

$ 5 Bn 35 GWh 2019

$ 562 M 3-5 GWh 2018 $ 5 Bn 34 GWh 2028 $ 360 M 2-3 GWh 2018 $ 5 Bn 32 GWh 2023

122 162 191 247 297 350 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

  • 100

200 300 400 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Production Ratio (%)

  • Prod. Capacity MWh

Production Capacity Demand Production Ratio

790 M$ 7,5 GWh 2020 $ 282 M 14 GWh 2022 25 GWh Solid State ? 2024-2025

EUROPE

Europ ropean mark rket et demand 150 GWh in 2025 $ 1 Bn

?

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

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Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019

From 160 GWh in 2018 to >1,2 TWh CAGR 2015/2030 +20 % per year in Volume

2018: >160 GWh 2030: 1200 GWh

Electronic devices 5% Auto, E-bus Excl. China 47% Auto, E-bus China 38% Industrial, ESS 3% Others 7%

CAGR 15/30 (Optimistic)

  • 200 000

400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 M Wh

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2030

Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices

14% 18% 24% 29% 4%

Electronic devices 20% Auto, E-bus

  • Excl. China

20% Auto, E-bus China 44% Industrial, ESS 5% Others 11%

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

TAKEAWAYS

33 Others: Automatic handling equipment, robots, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, drones, Hoverboard…… Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive: 1% of the automotive market consume 60% of the LIB In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEV P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 18 B$ market in 2017 - 36 B$ in 2020 & 75 B$ in 2030 with high numbers in China (2017: US$5 Billion for xEV and US$ 4 Billion for xE-Buses) EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for 4% of the auto sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV for 2-3% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25 Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li- ion market (US$ 40 Bn) will be higher than Lead acid in value in 2018 (US$ 38 Bn)

A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, hoverboard, drones: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2025 (base scenario)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GWh

Others LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Lead Acid (+5%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (-1%) LIB for xEV (+19%) LIB for Others* (+12%)

25B$ 30B$ 65 B$ 100 B$ 170 B$

210 325 1000 GWh 1 500 GWh

27 8 57

(CAGR 2015-2025)

75

(Pack level)

43B$

440

Battery Market 2015-2030 - CAGR = +7% / Li-ion>+10%

725

140 B$

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SLIDE 34

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Paris, France May 28th, 2019

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY c.pillot@avicenne.com Phone: +33 1 44 55 19 90 Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

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