The Quad Cities Economy Washington Legislators Tour of Eastern - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Quad Cities Economy

Washington Legislators Tour of Eastern Washington Pullman, Washington 9/15/19

Agenda

• Demographic growth
• Employment & earnings growth
• Industry growth
• Migration patterns
• Cost of living & home values

Orientation

• Whitman County, WA:

Pullman

• Latah County, ID: Moscow
• Nez Perce County, ID:

Lewiston

• Asotin County, WA:

Clarkston

Average Annual Population Change

• 1,500
• 1,000
• 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Whitman Latah Nez Perce Asotin Quad Cities Region Births Deaths International Migration Domestic Migration

• Split shares between “net

in-migration” and “natural change”

• Latah County highest in

natural change

• Nez Perce & Asotin higher

in deaths

• Whitman County is

majority of region’s international in-migration

Source: US Dept of Commerce, 2018; Census Bureau, Population Division; Headwaters Economics

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% Whitman Jobs Whitman Earnings 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% Latah Jobs Latah Earnings

• 20.0%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%

Nez Perce Jobs Nez Perce Earnings

• 20.0%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% Asotin Jobs Asotin Earnings Source: Economic Modeling Specialists, 2019.3

2018 Industry Employment

(4,000) 4,000 12,000 20,000 Employment 2018 Jobs 2013 - 2018 Change

• 6.4% growth rate in past

five years

• Gov’t accounts for 1 out of

every 3 jobs, esp. higher education

• Gov’t, manufacturing, and

construction are the three highest growth sectors

• No substantial industry

sector contractions

Source: Economic Modeling Specialists, 2019.3

Highly Competitive Industries

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 Electrical Equipment Mfg. Pulp, Paper, & Paperboard Mills Rooming & Boarding Houses,… Logging Other Fabricated Metal Product Mfg. Farm Product Raw Material Merchant… Ship & Boat Building Book Stores & News Dealers Nonmetallic Mineral Mining & Quarrying Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods… 2018 LQ

• Electrical Equip. Mfg. is

43X the national average

• 8 of 44 high concentrated

industries in manufacturing

• Low concentration in

Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Information; and Finance & Insurance

Source: Economic Modeling Specialists, 2019.3

Migration Statistics: Whitman County

Positive Net Migration From: + King County, WA (+1,097) + Snohomish County, WA (+521) + Pierce County, WA (+398) Negative Net Migration To: − Kootenai County, ID (-178) − Whatcom County, WA (-156) − El Paso County, CO (-81)

Source: US Census Flows Mapper, 2013-2017

Migration Statistics: Latah County

Positive Net Migration From: + Kootenai, ID (+552) + San Bernardino County, CA (+264) + Chelan County, WA (+189) Negative Net Migration To: − King County, WA (-262) − Asotin County, WA (-207) − Washington County, OR (-148)

Source: US Census Flows Mapper, 2013-2017

Migration Statistics: Asotin County

Positive Net Migration From: + Nez Perce County, ID (+330) + Latah County, ID (+207) + Washington County, OR (+61) Negative Net Migration To: − Spokane County, WA (-59) − Whitman County, WA (-53) − Clearwater County, ID (-51)

Source: US Census Flows Mapper, 2013-2017

Migration Statistics: Nez Perce County

Positive Net Migration From: + Ada County, ID (+87) + Idaho County, ID (+76) + Pierce County, WA (+75) Negative Net Migration To: − Asotin County, WA (-330) − Twin Falls, ID (-184) − Latah County, ID (-132)

Source: US Census Flows Mapper, 2013-2017

Migration Statistics: Nez Perce County

Positive Net Migration From: + Ada County, ID (+87) + Idaho County, ID (+76) + Pierce County, WA (+75) Negative Net Migration To: − Asotin County, WA (-330) − Twin Falls, ID (-184) − Latah County, ID (-132)

Key Points:

• Out-migration is generally in pursuit of lower-cost living,

employment opportunities, or both

• Migration patterns with western Washington strongly favor

Whitman County

• Still plenty of people headed to Seattle (esp. from U of

Idaho and WSU)

• Northern Idaho counties more connected to eastern and

western Washington than to southern Idaho

Source: US Census Flows Mapper, 2013-2017

Cost of Living

Pullman, WA Moscow, ID Lewiston, ID Clarkston, WA WA ID USA Overall 103.4 101.5 100.4 94.8 131.1 100.2 100 Grocery 107.8 107.8 107.8 107.8 107.2 101.4 100 Health 82.5 93.6 95.0 81.1 80.2 94.1 100 Housing 144.2 133.5 112.1 93.7 197.8 116.5 100 Median Home Cost $286k $278k $234k $201k $380k $248k $220k Utilities 84.3 84.3 88.5 86.4 74.0 89.3 100 Transportation 66.8 67.1 91.4 96.5 126.3 87.8 100 Miscellaneous 95.0 96.1 96.0 98.7 99.4 95.3 100

Source: Sperling's Best Places, Cost of Living Indices

Home Price Comparison

Source: Zillow Research, Home Listings & Sales

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 2016-08 2016-10 2016-12 2017-02 2017-04 2017-06 2017-08 2017-10 2017-12 2018-02 2018-04 2018-06 2018-08 2018-10 2018-12 2019-02 2019-04 Median Price ($ Thousands Whitman County Nez Perce County Latah County Asotin County $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 2016-08 2016-10 2016-12 2017-02 2017-04 2017-06 2017-08 2017-10 2017-12 2018-02 2018-04 2018-06 2018-08 2018-10 2018-12 2019-02 2019-04 Median Price ($ Thousands) Seattle, WA Boise City, ID United States

Questions

brian@points-consulting.com 208-596-5809