The Quad Cities Economy Washington Legislators Tour of Eastern Washington Pullman, Washington 9/15/19
Agenda • Demographic growth • Employment & earnings growth • Industry growth • Migration patterns • Cost of living & home values
Orientation • Whitman County, WA: Pullman • Latah County, ID: Moscow • Nez Perce County, ID: Lewiston • Asotin County, WA: Clarkston
Average Annual Population Change • Split shares between “net 2,500 in- migration” and “natural 2,000 change” 1,500 • Latah County highest in 1,000 natural change 500 • Nez Perce & Asotin higher 0 in deaths -500 • Whitman County is -1,000 majority of region’s -1,500 Whitman Latah Nez Perce Asotin Quad Cities international in-migration Region Births Deaths International Migration Domestic Migration Source: US Dept of Commerce, 2018; Census Bureau, Population Division; Headwaters Economics
120.0% 120.0% 100.0% 100.0% 80.0% 80.0% 60.0% 60.0% 40.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Whitman Jobs Whitman Earnings Latah Jobs Latah Earnings 120.0% 120.0% 100.0% 100.0% 80.0% 80.0% 60.0% 60.0% 40.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% -20.0% -20.0% Nez Perce Jobs Nez Perce Earnings Asotin Jobs Asotin Earnings Source: Economic Modeling Specialists, 2019.3
2018 Industry Employment • 6.4% growth rate in past five years 20,000 • Gov’t accounts for 1 out of Employment 12,000 every 3 jobs, esp. higher 4,000 education (4,000) • Gov’t, manufacturing, and construction are the three highest growth sectors • No substantial industry sector contractions 2018 Jobs 2013 - 2018 Change Source: Economic Modeling Specialists, 2019.3
Highly Competitive Industries • Electrical Equip. Mfg. is 2018 LQ 43X the national average 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 • 8 of 44 high concentrated Electrical Equipment Mfg. industries in Pulp, Paper, & Paperboard Mills Rooming & Boarding Houses,… manufacturing Logging • Low concentration in Other Fabricated Metal Product Mfg. Professional, Scientific, & Farm Product Raw Material Merchant… Technical Services; Ship & Boat Building Information; and Finance Book Stores & News Dealers Nonmetallic Mineral Mining & Quarrying & Insurance Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods… Source: Economic Modeling Specialists, 2019.3
Migration Statistics: Whitman County Positive Net Migration From: + King County, WA (+1,097) + Snohomish County, WA (+521) + Pierce County, WA (+398) Negative Net Migration To: − Kootenai County, ID (-178) − Whatcom County, WA (-156) − El Paso County, CO (-81) Source: US Census Flows Mapper, 2013-2017
Migration Statistics: Latah County Positive Net Migration From: + Kootenai, ID (+552) + San Bernardino County, CA (+264) + Chelan County, WA (+189) Negative Net Migration To: − King County, WA (-262) − Asotin County, WA (-207) − Washington County, OR (-148) Source: US Census Flows Mapper, 2013-2017
Migration Statistics: Asotin County Positive Net Migration From: + Nez Perce County, ID (+330) + Latah County, ID (+207) + Washington County, OR (+61) Negative Net Migration To: − Spokane County, WA (-59) − Whitman County, WA (-53) − Clearwater County, ID (-51) Source: US Census Flows Mapper, 2013-2017
Migration Statistics: Nez Perce County Positive Net Migration From: + Ada County, ID (+87) + Idaho County, ID (+76) + Pierce County, WA (+75) Negative Net Migration To: − Asotin County, WA (-330) − Twin Falls, ID (-184) − Latah County, ID (-132) Source: US Census Flows Mapper, 2013-2017
Migration Statistics: Nez Perce County Key Points: • Out-migration is generally in pursuit of lower-cost living, Positive Net Migration From: employment opportunities, or both + Ada County, ID (+87) + Idaho County, ID (+76) • Migration patterns with western Washington strongly favor + Pierce County, WA (+75) Whitman County • Still plenty of people headed to Seattle (esp. from U of Negative Net Migration To: Idaho and WSU) − Asotin County, WA (-330) − Twin Falls, ID (-184) • Northern Idaho counties more connected to eastern and − Latah County, ID (-132) western Washington than to southern Idaho Source: US Census Flows Mapper, 2013-2017
Cost of Living Pullman, Moscow, Lewiston, Clarkston, WA ID USA WA ID ID WA Overall 103.4 101.5 100.4 94.8 131.1 100.2 100 Grocery 107.8 107.8 107.8 107.8 107.2 101.4 100 Health 82.5 93.6 95.0 81.1 80.2 94.1 100 Housing 144.2 133.5 112.1 93.7 197.8 116.5 100 Median Home $286k $278k $234k $201k $380k $248k $220k Cost Utilities 84.3 84.3 88.5 86.4 74.0 89.3 100 Transportation 66.8 67.1 91.4 96.5 126.3 87.8 100 Miscellaneous 95.0 96.1 96.0 98.7 99.4 95.3 100 Source: Sperling's Best Places, Cost of Living Indices
Source: Zillow Research, Home Listings & Sales Median Price ($ Thousands Home Price Comparison $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $0 2016-08 2016-10 2016-12 Latah County Whitman County 2017-02 2017-04 2017-06 2017-08 2017-10 2017-12 Asotin County Nez Perce County 2018-02 2018-04 2018-06 2018-08 2018-10 2018-12 2019-02 2019-04 Median Price ($ Thousands) $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $0 Seattle, WA 2016-08 2016-10 2016-12 2017-02 2017-04 2017-06 Boise City, ID 2017-08 2017-10 2017-12 2018-02 2018-04 2018-06 United States 2018-08 2018-10 2018-12 2019-02 2019-04
Questions brian@points-consulting.com 208-596-5809
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