The future of diesel: Evidence from a high-volume passenger car - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The future of diesel: Evidence from a high-volume passenger car real-world test program in Europe Nick Molden

The challenge • Transitional period with competing powertrain technologies with different advantages • In 20-30 year time horizon, passenger cars may well be extensively electrified • Diesel is facing a growing challenge in the transition • Failed old official regulations will cast a long shadow of anti-diesel rhetoric • New regulations will curtail technologies that were regulatory artefacts • Cities may have to take unilateral action • Consumer confusion will increase ➢ This is a market and environmental problem 2

EMISSIONS ANALYTICS’ PROGRAMME 3

Emissions Analytics’ credentials • Founded in 2011 • Headquartered in UK, with operations in London, Los Angeles and Stuttgart • Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis • 1300+ vehicles tested • Largest commercially available database of real-world emissions data • Works with OEMs, Tier 1/2 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators, consultancies, consumer media 4

Equipment • SEMTECH-DS and -LDV • Portable Emissions Measurement System connects to tailpipe • Captures emissions for CO 2 , CO, NO, NO 2 , total hydrocarbons • At 1 Hertz • Air temperature, pressure, humidity • GPS for speed and altitude • Engine data via CANBUS • Fuel economy derived via carbon balance • Weight addition 100kg 5

Emissions Analytics concept • Reproducibility must be weighed against authenticity • Aim to drive same cycle identically each time • Control what you can – driver, vehicle conditioning, driving style • Careful QA of data • Normalize out as much of remaining variability as possible ➢ Approximate to laboratory ➢ Use better economics of testing to test more cars ➢ Trading slight deterioration in precision for greater sample size ➢ Greater overall confidence 6

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EURO 6 NO x TRENDS 8

• • • • • • NO x Exceedance Factor RDE in 2017? Beating first phase of re-start strategies? management and hot Use of thermal Growing variability Real Driving Emissions Despite prospect of almost to Euro 5 peaks Rising since 2015, back Average EF now ~7 Exceendance Factor 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 0.00 5.00 02/11/2011 02/01/2012 02/03/2012 02/05/2012 02/07/2012 02/09/2012 02/11/2012 02/01/2013 02/03/2013 02/05/2013 02/07/2013 02/09/2013 02/11/2013 02/01/2014 02/03/2014 02/05/2014 02/07/2014 02/09/2014 02/11/2014 02/01/2015 02/03/2015 02/05/2015 02/07/2015 02/09/2015 02/11/2015 02/01/2016 02/03/2016 02/05/2016 02/07/2016 02/09/2016 02/11/2016 9 02/01/2017

WILL DIESEL SURVIVE? 10

Four commercial factors Fuel efficiency Depreciation In-use CO 2 NO x , CO Diesel Gasoline Gasoline HEV PHEV – short trip PHEV – long trip EV • Diesel’s position is threatened unless low NO x can be demonstrated 11

Advance of gasoline HEVs • HEVs historically had urban 54.0 MPG advantage 52.0 Extra-urban Imperial MPG • May overtake diesel in 50.0 motorway driving this year 48.0 • Further advanced in US • Even now, has emits less 46.0 CO 2 than like-for-like diesel 44.0 42.0 40.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Model Year Linear (Diesel EU) Linear (Gasoline hybrid EU) 12

Can diesels be clean? 0.600 • Average Euro 6 diesel 13 times average 0.500 gasoline car • But cleanest diesels 0.400 Real-world NOx (g/km) (5% percentile) are as clean as the average 0.300 gasoline • 0.200 Has been the case for almost 2 years 0.100 • Not being able to discriminate within 0.000 Euro 6 is significant 14/09/2011 01/04/2012 18/10/2012 06/05/2013 22/11/2013 10/06/2014 27/12/2014 15/07/2015 31/01/2016 18/08/2016 06/03/2017 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Diesel Euro 6) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Gasoline Euro 5/6) market failure 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Diesel Euro 10th Percentile) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Diesel Euro 6 5th Percentile) 13

Will Real Driving Emissions help? 40% • … to some extent 35% • Almost 1 in 3 already Percentage of vehicles tested meeting particular CF meet CF of 2.1 30% • ~20% meet CF of 1.5 25% • Will remove the dirtier 20% vehicles from the market 15% • But will not enforce the cleanest technology 10% available 5% • Normalisation could 0% dilute requirement CF 2.1 CF 1.5 CF 1.0 14

WILL WLTC HELP? 15

Growing fuel consumption gap 9.00 • Worse real-world 8.50 fuel consumption in 2016 for both 8.00 diesel and 7.50 32% Fuel consumption (l/100km) gasoline 7.00 • Gap smaller 6.50 excluding hybrids 6.00 • Diesel 25% more 40% 5.50 efficient than gasoline, despite 5.00 direct injection 4.50 penetration 4.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Diesel real-world Gasoline real-world Diesel official Gasoline official 16

Will WLTC help? New European Driving World Light Duty • Emissions Analytics WLTC very similar Cycle (NEDC) Transient Cycle (WLTC) to NEDC MPG, CO 2 , CO, NO x , NO, Measurements MPG, CO 2 , CO, NO x MPG, CO 2 , CO, NO x NO 2 • High speed could lead lower CO 2 Cycle Defined speed trace Defined speed trace Defined route • Offset by more Test location Laboratory Laboratory On road with PEMS acceleration/ deceleration Conduct By OEM By OEM Independent • Small net effect Based on dynamic Normalisation None None • Uncertain effect characteristics of closing Average speed (mph) 21 29 28 loopholes Average acceleration (mph/s) 1.1 1.0 1.5 • Best case – still Average gradient (m/s) 0.0 0.0 0.8 20% CO 2 gap? 17

INDEPENDENT RATINGS LABELS 18

EQUA Index • Vehicle rating scheme based on their real-world emissions and fuel economy • Non-statutory complement to new Real Driving Emissions regulations • Discriminates between high and low emitters, even within Euro class – not just pass/fail • Ratings are published and into the public domain for free at www.equaindex.com • Manufacturers, fleets and consumer media can adopt as independent, voluntary standard • Equivalent to New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP, Global NCAP) • Authoritative advisory board ➢ Robust, independent standard needed to measure and incentivise actions to bring about air quality improvements 19

Rating bands Rating Lower bound Upper bound External reference point (g/km, exclusive) (g/km, exclusive) A 0.00 0.08 Meets Euro 6 limit for diesels, and meets Euro 4 limit for gasoline B 0.08 0.12 Meets 1.5 Conformity Factor under Euro 6 Real Driving Emissions regulation C 0.12 0.18 Meets Euro 5 limit for diesels (and similar to 2.1 Conformity Factor under Euro 6 Real Driving Emissions regulation) D 0.18 0.25 Meets Euro 4 limit for diesels E 0.25 0.50 Meets Euro 3 limit for diesels F 0.50 0.75 No comparable Euro standard: roughly equal to 6-8 times Euro 6 limit G 0.75 1.00 Roughly equal to 8-12 times Euro 6 limit H 1.00 None Roughly equal to 12+ times Euro 6 limit 20

EQUA Aq 21

EQUA CO 2 • “A1” to “H5” • A to H for absolute emissions • 1 to 5 for proximity to official – “honesty” • 39% average CO 2 excess – 189 g/km • 16% higher emissions from petrol compared to diesel • 1.5 litre engines better than most highly down-sized • 2.0-3.0 litre engines most honest 22

EQUA Mpg, EQUA 100 • MPG values for almost all vehicles on sale in last five years • Over 70,000 model variants • Remainder extrapolated using new proprietary model of real-world MPG, based on technical characteristics of vehicles ➢ Comprehensive alternative to official system 23

Future of diesel? • The EQUA Aq Index has now rated 15 diesels as A • Means that 80mg/km is met even in real-world driving • Conformity factor of <<1 possible • Bigger cars tend to be cleaner – 48% of 4x4s get EQUA Aq A-C ➢ Is it too late? ➢ Governments and cities will have strong influence in outcome 24

Nick Molden, Chief Executive Officer nick@emissionsanalytics.com +44 (0) 20 7193 0489 +44 (0) 7765 105902 25