The future of diesel: Evidence from a high-volume passenger car - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The future of diesel: Evidence from a high-volume passenger car real-world test program in Europe

Nick Molden

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• Transitional period with competing powertrain technologies with different advantages
• In 20-30 year time horizon, passenger cars may well be extensively electrified
• Diesel is facing a growing challenge in the transition
• Failed old official regulations will cast a long shadow of anti-diesel rhetoric
• New regulations will curtail technologies that were regulatory artefacts
• Cities may have to take unilateral action
• Consumer confusion will increase

➢ This is a market and environmental problem

The challenge

EMISSIONS ANALYTICS’ PROGRAMME

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• Founded in 2011
• Headquartered in UK, with operations in London, Los Angeles and Stuttgart
• Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis
• 1300+ vehicles tested
• Largest commercially available database of real-world emissions data
• Works with OEMs, Tier 1/2 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators,

consultancies, consumer media

Emissions Analytics’ credentials

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Equipment

• SEMTECH-DS and -LDV
• Portable Emissions Measurement System

connects to tailpipe

• Captures emissions for CO2, CO, NO, NO2,

total hydrocarbons

• At 1 Hertz
• Air temperature, pressure, humidity
• GPS for speed and altitude
• Engine data via CANBUS
• Fuel economy derived via carbon balance
• Weight addition 100kg

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• Reproducibility must be weighed against authenticity
• Aim to drive same cycle identically each time
• Control what you can – driver, vehicle conditioning, driving style
• Careful QA of data
• Normalize out as much of remaining variability as possible

➢ Approximate to laboratory ➢ Use better economics of testing to test more cars ➢ Trading slight deterioration in precision for greater sample size ➢ Greater overall confidence

Emissions Analytics concept

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EURO 6 NOx TRENDS

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• Average EF now ~7
• Rising since 2015, back

almost to Euro 5 peaks

• Despite prospect of

Real Driving Emissions

• Growing variability
• Use of thermal

management and hot re-start strategies?

• Beating first phase of

RDE in 2017?

NOx Exceedance Factor

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 02/11/2011 02/01/2012 02/03/2012 02/05/2012 02/07/2012 02/09/2012 02/11/2012 02/01/2013 02/03/2013 02/05/2013 02/07/2013 02/09/2013 02/11/2013 02/01/2014 02/03/2014 02/05/2014 02/07/2014 02/09/2014 02/11/2014 02/01/2015 02/03/2015 02/05/2015 02/07/2015 02/09/2015 02/11/2015 02/01/2016 02/03/2016 02/05/2016 02/07/2016 02/09/2016 02/11/2016 02/01/2017 Exceendance Factor

WILL DIESEL SURVIVE?

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Four commercial factors

Fuel efficiency Depreciation In-use CO2 NOx, CO Diesel Gasoline Gasoline HEV PHEV – short trip PHEV – long trip EV

• Diesel’s position is threatened unless low NOx can be demonstrated

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Advance of gasoline HEVs

• HEVs historically had urban

MPG advantage

• May overtake diesel in

motorway driving this year

• Further advanced in US
• Even now, has emits less

CO2 than like-for-like diesel

40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Extra-urban Imperial MPG Model Year Linear (Diesel EU) Linear (Gasoline hybrid EU)

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• Average Euro 6 diesel

13 times average gasoline car

• But cleanest diesels

(5% percentile) are as clean as the average gasoline

• Has been the case for

almost 2 years

• Not being able to

discriminate within Euro 6 is significant market failure

Can diesels be clean?

0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 14/09/2011 01/04/2012 18/10/2012 06/05/2013 22/11/2013 10/06/2014 27/12/2014 15/07/2015 31/01/2016 18/08/2016 06/03/2017 Real-world NOx (g/km) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Diesel Euro 6) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Gasoline Euro 5/6) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Diesel Euro 10th Percentile) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Diesel Euro 6 5th Percentile)

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• … to some extent
• Almost 1 in 3 already

meet CF of 2.1

• ~20% meet CF of 1.5
• Will remove the dirtier

vehicles from the market

• But will not enforce the

cleanest technology available

• Normalisation could

dilute requirement

Will Real Driving Emissions help?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Percentage of vehicles tested meeting particular CF CF 2.1 CF 1.5 CF 1.0

WILL WLTC HELP?

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Growing fuel consumption gap

• Worse real-world

fuel consumption in 2016 for both diesel and gasoline

• Gap smaller

excluding hybrids

• Diesel 25% more

efficient than gasoline, despite direct injection penetration

4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fuel consumption (l/100km) Diesel real-world Gasoline real-world Diesel official Gasoline official

32% 40%

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Will WLTC help?

New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) World Light Duty Transient Cycle (WLTC) Emissions Analytics Measurements MPG, CO2, CO, NOx MPG, CO2, CO, NOx MPG, CO2, CO, NOx, NO, NO2 Cycle Defined speed trace Defined speed trace Defined route Test location Laboratory Laboratory On road with PEMS Conduct By OEM By OEM Independent Normalisation None None Based on dynamic characteristics Average speed (mph) 21 29 28 Average acceleration (mph/s) 1.1 1.0 1.5 Average gradient (m/s) 0.0 0.0 0.8

• WLTC very similar

to NEDC

• High speed could

lead lower CO2

• Offset by more

acceleration/ deceleration

• Small net effect
• Uncertain effect
• f closing

loopholes

• Best case – still

20% CO2 gap?

INDEPENDENT RATINGS LABELS

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• Vehicle rating scheme based on their real-world emissions and fuel economy
• Non-statutory complement to new Real Driving Emissions regulations
• Discriminates between high and low emitters, even within Euro class – not just pass/fail
• Ratings are published and into the public domain for free at www.equaindex.com
• Manufacturers, fleets and consumer media can adopt as independent, voluntary standard
• Equivalent to New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP, Global NCAP)
• Authoritative advisory board

➢ Robust, independent standard needed to measure and incentivise actions to bring about air quality improvements

EQUA Index

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Rating bands

Rating Lower bound (g/km, exclusive) Upper bound (g/km, exclusive) External reference point A 0.00 0.08 Meets Euro 6 limit for diesels, and meets Euro 4 limit for gasoline B 0.08 0.12 Meets 1.5 Conformity Factor under Euro 6 Real Driving Emissions regulation C 0.12 0.18 Meets Euro 5 limit for diesels (and similar to 2.1 Conformity Factor under Euro 6 Real Driving Emissions regulation) D 0.18 0.25 Meets Euro 4 limit for diesels E 0.25 0.50 Meets Euro 3 limit for diesels F 0.50 0.75 No comparable Euro standard: roughly equal to 6-8 times Euro 6 limit G 0.75 1.00 Roughly equal to 8-12 times Euro 6 limit H 1.00 None Roughly equal to 12+ times Euro 6 limit

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EQUA Aq

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EQUA CO2

• “A1” to “H5”
• A to H for absolute emissions
• 1 to 5 for proximity to official –

“honesty”

• 39% average CO2 excess – 189 g/km
• 16% higher emissions from petrol

compared to diesel

• 1.5 litre engines better than most highly

down-sized

• 2.0-3.0 litre engines most honest

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EQUA Mpg, EQUA 100

• MPG values for almost all vehicles on

sale in last five years

• Over 70,000 model variants
• Remainder extrapolated using new

proprietary model of real-world MPG, based on technical characteristics of vehicles ➢ Comprehensive alternative to official system

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Future of diesel?

• The EQUA Aq Index has now rated

15 diesels as A

• Means that 80mg/km is met even

in real-world driving

• Conformity factor of <<1 possible
• Bigger cars tend to be cleaner –

48% of 4x4s get EQUA Aq A-C ➢ Is it too late? ➢ Governments and cities will have strong influence in outcome

Nick Molden, Chief Executive Officer nick@emissionsanalytics.com +44 (0) 20 7193 0489 +44 (0) 7765 105902

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