Novem ember ber 2018 Republic blic
- f
Indones esia ia
Stabilit bility at the Foref efront
- nt,
Stabilit bility at the Foref efront ont, Syner ergized gized - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Republic blic of Indones esia ia Stabilit bility at the Foref efront ont, Syner ergized gized Reforms ms Move ve Novem ember ber 2018 About ut Inves esto tor Relatio tions ns Unit of the Republic ublic of
Novem ember ber 2018 Republic blic
Indones esia ia
1
About ut Inves esto tor Relatio tions ns Unit
the Republic ublic
I Indones esia
Investor Relations Unit (IRU) of the Republic of Indonesia has been established as a joint effort between Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and Bank Indonesia since 2005. The main objective of IRU is to actively communicate Indonesian economic policy and to address concerns of investors, especially financial market investors. As an important part of its communication measures, IRU maintains a website under Bank Indonesia website which is administered by International Department of Bank Indonesia. However, day-to-day activities of IRU are supported by all relevant government agencies, among others: Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance, Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Investment Coordinating Board, Ministry of Trade, Ministry of State Owned Enterprises, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and Financial Services Authority. IRU also convenes an investor conference call on a quarterly basis, answers questions through email, telephone and may arrange direct visit of banks/financial institutions to Bank Indonesia and other relevant government offices. Published by Investor Relations Unit – Republic of Indonesia Website: http://www.bi.go.id/en/iru/default.aspx Contact: Wiwit Widyastuti (International Department - Bank Indonesia, Phone: +6221 2981 8279) Evy Mulyani (Fiscal Policy Office - Ministry of Finance, Phone: +6221 345 0012) I Gede Yuddy Hendranata (Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management - Ministry of Finance, Phone: +62213510714) E-mail: contactIRU-DL@bi.go.id This Presentation Book also can be downloaded from: http://www.bi.go.id/en/iru/presentation/red/Default.aspx
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What’s New in This Edition
2019 State Budget in Details ils Overnight ight Index ex Swaps (OIS) & Inter eres est Rate te Swaps ps (IRS)
The House
Representatives (DPR) has approved the 2019 state budget
Wednesday, October 31st, 2018 Bank Indonesia has introduced Rupiah interest rate derivatives, namely Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and Overnight Index Swaps (OIS). This will provide alternative hedging instruments against domestic interest rate changes.
…page 40-47 …page 70-71
The 16 16th
th Econ
ic Policy cy Packa kage
The 16th Economic Policy Package has been launched in November 16th, 2018.
…page 12
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Overvie rview
Instit itutio utional nal and Governan ernance Effectiv ivene eness: Acceler lerated ted Reforms rms Agenda with Instit itutio utional nal Improvem ement ent Econo nomic ic Factor: Strong ng and Stable le Growth wth Prospec ects Remain in Intact Externa rnal l Facto tor: : Impro roved ed Externa ernal l Resilien lience Fiscal al Perfo rformanc ance and Flexibilit ibility: y: Mor
l Stimulus lus with Prud udent nt Fiscal l Mana nage gement nt Moneta etary ry and Financ ncial ial Factor: : Credible ible Monet netar ary y Polic licy y Track k Record rd and Favour urable ble Financ ncial ial Sector Pro rogres gressiv ive e Infras rastr truc uctur ure Develo lopment ent: Strong ng Commitm itment ent on Acceleratio leration n
rastr truc uctur ture e Pro rovis isio ion
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37 37 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Indonesia India Philipines Bulgaria Colombia
Improving ving Global bal Percep ception tion
…with recent improve vement nts
global al competit itive ivene ness and governan rnance ce indica cator
1. Source: World Economic Forum –The Global Competitiveness Report 2018; 2. Source: World Bank – Doing Business 2019 Report; 3. Source: World Bank; 4. Source: Transparency International – Corruption Perceptions Index 2017 Report
World ld Governa nanc nce Indic icator tors3 Ease of Doing ng Busin iness2 Global l Compe petitive titivene ness Index1 Corruptio uption n Perce cept ptio ion n Index4
Higher rank is better Higher score is better Higher rank is better (rankings at the time of annual report publication) 50 33 53 50 39 43 15 35 55 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Voice and Accountability Political Stability/Absence of Violence Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Control of Corruption Higher rank is better 41 36 45 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Rank nk India Indonesia Philippines Bulgaria Colombia 91 72 73 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Indonesia India Philippines Bulgaria Colombia
*New Concepts by using the Global Competitiveness index 4.0 which captures the determinants of long- term growth.
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Contin tinuou
Improv
ement
Investme stment Clima imate te
…anothe her leap
Rank nk
Ease
Doing Busine ness ss (EODB)*
EoDB 201 019 Rank nk EoDB 201 2018 Rank nk Chan hange in Rank nk EoDB 201 019 Point ints EoDB 201 2018 Point ints Chan hange in Point ints
Overall all 73 73 72 72 1 67.96 66. 66.54 54 1.42 Start rting ing a busines ess 134 144 10 81.22 77.93 3.29 Dealing ing with Constr truc uctio ion Permit rmit 112 108 108 4 66.57 66.08 0.49 Getting ng Electr tric icity ity 33 33 38 38 5 86.38 83.87 2.51 Registering tering Property erty 100 100 106 106 6 61.67 59.01 2.66 Getting ng Credit it 44 44 55 55 11 70.00 65.00 5.00 Prote tecting ting Mino nority ity Inves esto tors 51 51 43 43 8 63.33 63.33 0.00 Paying ing Taxes 112 114 2 68.03 68.04 0.01 Trading Across Border ers 116 112 4 67.27 67.27 27 0.00 Enforcing ing Contrac acts ts 146 145 1 47.23 47.23 0.00 Resolv lving ing Insolv lven ency 36 36 38 38 2 67.89 67.61 0.28
Source: World Bank * Higher rank is better, EoDB 2019 was published in October 2018
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BBB / Stab able Baa2 a2 / Stab able BBB BBB- / Stable
Apr 201 2018, Baa2, , Ratin ing g Upgr grade ded “The upgrade to Baa2 is underpinned by an increasingly credible and effective policy framework conducive to macroeconomic stability. Together with a build-up of financial buffers, prudent fiscal and monetary policy strengthens Moody’s confidence that the sovereign’s resilience and capacity to respond to shocks has improved.” May 2018 18, BBB-, Stable Ratin ing g Affir firmed ed “The sovereign ratings on Indonesia are supported by the government’s relatively low debt levels and its moderate fiscal performance and external indebtedness.” Sept pt 2018, 018, BBB, Ratin ing g Affir firmed “Indonesia's ratings balance a low government debt burden and a favourable GDP growth outlook with external challenges, including a strong dependence
indicators that remain below rating peers.”
BBB BBB / Stab able
Febr bruary 201 2018, , Ratin ing g Upgr graded ded to BBB BB, Outlook Revis ised d to Stabl ble “....the government led by President Joko Widodo has been pressing ahead with structural reforms aimed to promote sustainable growth.. First, the investment climate has significantly improved.... Second, infrastructure development has been gaining momentum... Third, the external debt owed by the private sector has been curbed since 2016... Taking those into consideration, JCR has upgraded its ratings by one notch and changed the outlook to Stable.
BBB / Stab able
March 201 018, , Ratin ing g Upgr grade ded d to BBB BBB, Outlook Revis ised ed to Stabl ble “Indonesia's economy continues its strong performance, with inflation remaining low and stable. Fiscal deficits have been reined in, and government debt is low. The economy is becoming more resilient to external shocks, reflecting small current account deficits and ample foreign reserves.”
Indones esia ia is Now Fully ly Rated as as Inves estm tment ent Grad ade Countr try
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30.35 33.85 25.87 24.28 21.08 26.58 31.69 33.45 25.46 25.03 22.84 26.57 32.04 33.90 25.39 26.21 24.18 27.85 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam 2016 2017 2018e
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Billion USD 2016 2017 2.7 3.8 4.3 5.9 6.3 6.3 9 10.6 18.2 26.1 33.1 34.5 38.1 43.9 45.7
10 20 30 40 50
Turkey Singapore Russia Malaysia Korea Brazil Myanmar Philippines Mexico USA Indonesia Thailand Vietnam India China
Indones esia ia Remain ains the he Investment stment Desti stinatio tion
C Cho hoice ice
1. Source: The Economist – Asia Business Outlook Survey 2018 2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Database April 2018 3. Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) – World Investment Report 2018 4. Source: JBIC – Outlook for Japanese Foreign Direct Investment (29th Annual Survey)
Tota tal Investm tment t / GD GDP (%)
Indo done nesia a Enjo joys Large Investm tments Relat lative to Peers within n the Region2 JBIC: C: Among ng ASEAN AN countr ntries, , Indonesia a is one of the most prefe ferred d plac ace for busine ness investm tment nt (Nove vembe ber 2017) 17)4 The Econo nomi mist: : Indo done nesia a round nds out the top five of Asian an econo nomi mies that t can look forwar ard d to increas ased d investme ment nt spendi nding ng. . (January nuary 2018) 18)1
% of surveyed who consider each country has promising prospects
UNCTAD: AD: Indonesia a is listed d in the top 20 host econo nomi mies based d on FDI inflo lows, , 2016 16 and d 2017 17 (June ne 2018) 18)3
(x) = 2016 ranking
18.2 20.2 24.3 24.7 26.6 28 28.7 28.8 30.1 30.6 36.9 44.1 47.1 69.4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Taiwan Myanmar Malaysia Philippines Japan South Korea Thailand Hong Kong Australia Singapore Vietnam Indonesia India China
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Natio iona nal Strategic tegic Dev evel elopmen pment Plan an (Naw awa Cita ta)
Human Development
Educ ucation ion Healt alth Hous using ing Char aracte ter
Priority Sector Development
Food Security rity Energy & Electr tric ical Securi rity ty Mari ritime time & Mari rine ne Touris urism & Indus ustr try
Water ter Security rity, Basic ic Infras rastru truct cture re & Connecti nectivity vity
Equitable Development
Inte ter- Incom
Group
Inte ter-Reg Region: ion: (1) Rural al Area ea, (2) Perip ripher hery, y, (3) Outs tside ide Java, (4) Easte tern rn Area ea. .
Security & Order Politic & Democracy Governance
The 3 Dimensio ions
Econom
ic Develop
ment Necessary sary Condit ition
Legal Certainty & Law Enforcement
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purposes
system, build seeds market, tools and machinery
poverty, & land demand
Economic ic Equal alit ity Policies cies
to support sustainab nable le public ic welfar are.. ...
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Econo nomic ic Equali ality ty Polici cies
Human n Resour urce ce Capaci city ty
Land
Oppor portuni tunity ty Agra raria ian Reform rm Agric icultu ture e (Landle dless Farm rmer er) Planta tatio ion Urban Poor & Affordable ble Hou
Fisher hermen en & Seaweed eed Cult ltiv ivation tion Fair ir Tax x System tem Manufactu ture e and d ICT Retail l and Mark rket et Fina nanc ncin ing & Gove vernm nment nt Budget Voca catio iona nal, , Entre repr preneurs neurship ip & & Labor r Mark rket
Priority
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The he Economic ic Policy cy Pac ackag ages es
“To improve national industry competitiveness, export and investment to generate significant economic growth”
Phase e III I (7 Oct t ’15) Financial services facilitation, export financing and elimination
Phase e IV (15 Oct t ’15) Social safety net and betterment of people welfare Phase e V (22 Oct t ’15) Improving industry and investment climate through tax incentives and deregulation on sharia banking
Harmo moni nizi zing ng Regulations
Simp mpli lifyin ying Bureauc ucratic Proc
Ensuring Law Enfo forceabi bili lity
Phas ase e VI (5 Nov
Stimulating economic activities in border areas and facilitating strategic commodities availability Phase e I (9 Sept t ’15) Improving national industry competitiveness Phase e II (29 Sept t ’15) Easing permit requirement and simplifying export proceeds requirement Phase e VII (7 De Dec ’15) Stimulating business activities in labor-intensive industries nation-wide through incentives in the form of accelerating land certification process for individuals Phase e VIII I (21 De Dec ’15) Resolving land acquisition disputes, intensifying domestic oil production, stimulating domestic parts and aviation industries Phase e IX (27 Jan ’16) Accelerating electricity generation, stabilizing meat prices and improving rural–urban logistics sector Phas ase e X (11 11 Feb ’16) Revising the Negative investment List and improving protection for SMEs Phase XI (29 29 Mar r ’16) Stimulating national economy through facilitation to SMEs and industries Phase e XII II (28 28 Apr’16) Improving Indonesia’s rank on Ease of Doing Business (EODB) Phase e XIII I (24 Aug ’16) Low Cost Housing for Low-Income Communities Phase e XI XIV (10 Nov ’16) Roadmap for E-commerce
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Phase e XV (15 Jun ’17) Improving logistics In additio dition to the 16 Policy licy Packa kages ges, on Augu gust t 31, 2017 the Gov
ernmen ent has issued ed a Pres esiden identia tial l Regulatio tion No.
hancin ing g busin ines ess licen ense e serv rvic ice standa dard Phase e XVI (1 (16 Nov Nov ’18) Improving the competitiveness and domestic economy
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Improving ving the Compet petitivene itiveness ss an and Domes estic ic Economy
The 16th
th Econo
nomic mic Policy cy Packag age has been launche nched
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
TAX HOLIDAY EXPANSIO ION
Backgr ground und In
to further increase investment value in Indonesia, there is a need for expansion of sector and standard classification of Indonesian Business Fields (KBLI) that are given tax holiday, complemented with a process simplification to receive the tax holiday according to the Online Single Submission (OSS). Objectiv tives es and benefits fits 1) Increasing investment and strengthening the industrial sectors from the downstream to the upstream through the expansion of the business sector, KBLI’s pioneer industries, and Special Economic Zones (SEZ) that can receive tax holiday facilities 2) Increasing the process of convenience of filing process and tax holiday facilities provision
EXPORT PROCEEDS (DHE) SCHE HEME ME
Tax Rate tes on Deposit it Inte terest t Income Tax Rate tes on Deposit it Interest Income
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Boosting ting the he Competitive petitivenes ness through ugh Lo Logisti stical al Efficienc ciency
The 15th
th Econo
nomic ic Policy Packag age has been launche nched
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Policy cy Goals
Strengthen the Institution
Single Window (INSW) Provide Market Opportunities for Shipping Companies, Marine Insurance, and National Ship Maintenance Businesses Increase Competitiveness
Providers
Policy cy Target ets
Import duty for 115 types
ship’s spare parts and components 0%
Opportunities for national shipping to serve export and import transportation
around
USD 600 00 millio lion/y n/year ear
70-100 units
new ships worth USD
700 00 millio lion
New employment
2,000 000 sai ailors rs
Improve the Regional Government’s role in development
Regional Logistics System to control inflation and reduce post-harvest product damage up to 30%
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Progres ess
t the he Economic ic Policy cy Pac ackag ages es*
Initially, there are 233 regulations which need to be deregulated As
September 26th, 2018, deregulation
220 regulations are finished (99%), comprising 51 regulations at Presidential level and 169 regulations at Ministerial/Institutional level Unfinishe ished reg egula latio ions: Proposed Policy on Development
Service Providers
SET
REVOK OKED ED REGULATIONS TIONS
ON GOIN ING DISCU SCUSSION SION
170 TOTAL
169
MINIST STERIAL IAL/I /INST NSTIT ITUTI UTIONAL ONAL LEVEL VEL 99%
47 47 42 42
SELESAIPRESI SIDE DENTI NTIAL
52 TOTAL
51 51
FINI NISHED SHED
PRESIDE DENTIAL AL LEVEL
FINI NISHED SHED
TOTAL INITIAL TIAL REGULATION TIONS
TOTAL REGULATION TIONS
Based
the further assessment, 11 regulations has been revoked from deregulation process Total regulation subject to be deregulated: 222 regulations
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs *as of September 26, 2018
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Other her Progress ess
Economic ic Policy cy Pac ackag ages es
29 Provinces have set 2016 Minimum Wage System in accordance to the Government Regulation (GR) No. 78/2015
Fair, Simplif ifie ied & & Project ctable able Wage Sys System
IZ’s: Kendal, Demak, and Ungaran
IZ in Bitung (North Sulawesi) in 2017
Indus ustrial rial Zone Develo lopment ment
Spesial al Economic mic Zone ne (SEZ)
Investment commitments in SEZ up to 2017 reach 41 T, with 3 hour licenses already applied in 4 SEZ’s Administrators in 2017 52 Bonded Logistic Center has been launched to support various industries
Dereg egula ulation ion
Logis istics ics Sect ctor
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Invest vestmen ment Inc ncent entives ives to Bo Boost st Industry dustry Sector
BUSINE INESS SS EXPANSIO ANSION
wanc nce
xemptio mption n or relie lief of import t duty ty on capita ital l goods, machine chinery or equi uipme pment nt for production purposes that can not be produced domestically;
xemptio mption n or relie lief of import t duty ty on raw mate teria ials or auxi xilia liary mate teria ial l for production purposes for a certain period of time and certain conditions;
ption or suspe pensio ion of VAT on the he import t of capita ital l goods
chinery or equi uipme pment nt for production purposes that have not been produced domestically for a certain period of time;
preci ciatio tion n or amortiz tizatio tion n (part of tax allowance); and
perty ty tax relie lief, especially for certain business sectors in certain regions;
Tax holid liday of corporate income tax in a certain amount and time
PION ONEER INDUSTRIE DUSTRIES SPECIAL ECIAL ECONOMI ONOMIC ZONE
lectio ction n of VAT T and Luxu xury Goods Sale les Tax (PPnB PnBM), ),
toms tax exemption xemption,
lowanc nce and Tax Holid iday,
pens nsio ion n of Import t Duty,
t Duty for goods produced using local components of a certain level
INDUST STRIAL RIAL ZONE FREE TRAD ADE ZONES AND PORTS MICRO RO, SMAL ALL, L, MEDIUM IUM ENTERPR RPRIS ISES (MSMES) E-COM OMMERC RCE
T exem xempt ptio ion n on import or delivery of capital goods,
t Duty exemption xemption on machineries/goods/materials,
lowanc nce and Tax Holid iday Exe xemptio mption n of:
t Duty
xury Goods Sale les Tax x (PPnB PnBM)
toms duty ty Decr creasin ing MSME MEs Tax from 1% to 0.5% % of gross revenue
mall ll entrep treprene neur urs through the market place will be subject to 0.5% % inco come me tax and 1% VAT
ll entre trepre prene neur urs through the market place will be subject to 0.5% % inco come me tax
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
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New Tax Holiday liday Polic licy* y*
to boost industry try sector
Taxpay payer
Pioneer Industry with minimum investment value of 1 trillion Rupiah (minimum investment value
500bn Rupiah for telecommunication sector) Corporate te Income me Tax (CIT) T) reductio tion rate
Conce cession n perio iod Trans nsition ition
After er Tax Holiday Not available 100% (single rate)
discretion 1. 500Bn – 1Tn : 5 years 2. 1Tn – 5Tn : 7 years 3. 5Tn – 15Tn : 10 years Pioneer Industry with minimum investment value
500bn Rupiah Applied to 8 industry groups: (i) upstream basic metal industry; (ii)
and gas refinery industry; (iii) organic basic chemicals industry; (iv) machinery industry; (v) plantation, forest, and fishery products processing industry; (vi) telecommunication, information and communication industry; (vii) marine transportation; and (viii) economic infrastructure Applied to 17 industry groups: (i) upstream base metal; (ii)
and gas refinery; (iii) petrochemical (oil, gas,
based); (iv) non-organic base chemical; (v) organic base chemical; (vi) pharmaceutical materials; (vii) semiconductor and other components; (viii) communication devices components; (ix) medical devices components; (x) machine manufacturing for industry; (xi) machine main components manufacturing; (xii) robotic components manufacturing; (xiii) ship components manufacturing; (xiv) airplane components manufacturing; (xv) train components manufacturing; (xvi) power plants; and (xvii) economic infrastructure
PROVIS VISION BEFO FORE RE AFTE TER
5 – 20 years depends on the investment value (in IDR): 4. 15Tn – 30Tn : 15 years 5. ≥ 5Tn : 20 years 50% CIT reduction for the next 2 years 10 – 100% Tax allowance not provided Tax allowance for business expansion can be provided with terms and conditions applied
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs *) MoF has issued a new Tax Holiday policy through Regulation No. 35/PMK.010/2018 (PMK-35) dated 4 April 2018.
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Enhan ancing cing Busines iness Li Licen ense se Serv rvice ice Stan andar dard
Presiden identi tial al Regul ulati tion to Accelerate te Ease
Doing Busine ness ss has been launched ched
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Policy cy Go Goals
Improve efficient, streamlined, & integrated business license service standards Accelerate the business licensing process Provide business licensing process assurance in terms
Increase coordination & synergy between central & regional government Overcome the barriers to doing business in Indonesia Implement integrated licensing process (single submission)
Main n Policy cy
Forming a Task Force to identify & overcome the end- to-end licensing barriers Implementing a licensing checklist for Special Economic Zones (KEK), Free Trade Zones (FTZ), Industrial Zones & Tourist Zones Utilizing data sharing
Business license regulatory reforms Implementation
the Single Submission system
1st
st Phase
2nd
nd Phase
Note: 1st and 2nd Phase are implemented in parallel
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Impr proving ving Inv nvestment estment Clima imate
Onlin ine Sing ngle le Submissi ission
(OSS SS) Has Been en Laun unched hed... ...
Source: Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
OSS is a web-based business licensing system intended to cut the red tape involved in obtaining business permits and integrated between the central government and regional administrations
Lorem Ipsum Suitable for all category, Envir ironm nment ent & Fores restr try Secto tor Electricit ctricity Secto tor Public lic Work rks & Housin ing Secto tor Health Sec ecto tor Indus ustr try y Secto tor Mari rine ne & Fishery ery Secto tor Medic icine ine & Food Sector Trans nsport rtat atio ion n Secto tor Trade ade Secto tor Informatio ation n & Commun unic icatio tion Secto tor Other Secto tor Secto tors rs The Advant antag age e of Using g OSS Business licenses can be secured in under an hour Standardized business licenses are available Ellectronically integrated The whole licensing process is monitored by the Task Force More practical Accessible at anytime and anywhere
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(Pusat Logistik Berikat/PLB) is a facility provided by Ministry
Finance as part
the implementation
the 1st Economic Policy Package. PLB facility aims to improve efficiency and reduce the cost of transportation and logistics in Indonesia; support the growth of the domestic industry, including small and medium industries; increase investment; and to make Indonesia to become a logistics hub in Asia Pacific.
To To da date, e, 52 Bo Bond nded ed Logis gistic tic Cent nter ha has been en laun unched hed to to suppo pport variou rious indus dustries ries.
Improving ving Investment stment Clima imate te
…Bonded Logistic Center to Improve Indonesia’s Competitiveness
Oil il and ga gas, s, and mining ng indus ustr try Food & bever erag ages es indus ustr try Auto- motive ive indus ustr try y Pers rsonal nal care/ home care indus ustr try Textile ile (cotto tton) n) indus ustr try Small and medium ium indus ustr try Synthetic tic textile ile (chemic ical al substanc nces es) indus ustr try. y.
Bonded Logistic Center
Heavy Equipment nt indus ustr try Defence indus ustr try Aircraft ft MRO indus ustr try
21
Improving ving Investment stment Clima imate te
…revising the Negative Investment List
1 For total project value of IDR10bn and aboveBefore
Cold storage ge Restaurants, , Bars Pharmaceutical Raw Materials Manufacturing Sports Center, Film P Processing Lab, Crumb Rubber
Revisio ion of "Partnership ip" category y to refer to partnership ip with Micro, Smal all and Mediu ium Enterpris ises (MSME MEs) Gran andfat ather Law: If a par artic icul ular ar sector is tightened in futur ure, existin ing foreig ign investor does not need to comply with tighter stak ake Key Reforms in Negative ive Foreig ign Investment List Strengthen implementatio ion of negative investment law throug ugh active ive roles from min inistrie ies, agencie ies and regio ional al governments
100% 49% 100% 51% 100% 85% 100% 95% 100% 33% 67% 51% 67% 67% 55% 67% 65% 67%
Distribution,
housing Private Museum, Catering, g, apparel Manufacturing, g, Exhibitions
Conve ventions
Toll Road Operator, Telecom
Consultancy for Construction
Telecom
der with Integrated d Servi vices Professiona
g, Golf Course Management, , Air Transpor
, Trave vel Bureau
After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After 33% 49%
Introduc uctio tion n of New w Foreig ign n Owne wnership ip Regula ulatio tion n for Strate tegic ic Secto ctors Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM)
22
Inves estm tment ent Realiza izati tion (Q3-201 2018) 8)
IDR tn
2013 2014 2015
Direct ct Inve vestme tments nts
2016
Mini ning ng Housin ing, Ind ndust ustria ial Estate tate, and Offic ice Build ildin ing Food Indus ustry Ele lectric icity ty
US$ US$671.7 .7 mn US$ US$76.0 .0 mn mn US$ US$385.7 .7 mn mn US$ US$595.2 .2 mn mn US$ US$1,220.1 .1 mn mn US$ US$1,050.0 .0 mn mn Transpo portatio tion,
Warehouse use, and Tele leco comm mmun unica catio tion
130.7%
US$ US$76.6 .6 mn mn
82.0% 23 23.3% 42.5% 35.9% 22.0% 64 64.2% Invest stment nt Reali liza zatio ion
Textil xtile Indust ustry US$ US$99.0 .0 mn
66.9 66.9%
FDI Reali lizatio tion n by Secto ctors (yoy)
Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), compared to Q3-2017 period
2017
Rp145.4 5.4 T Rp159.4 9.4 T IDR89.1tn tn 434 434,463 463
9.6 9.6% 15.6 .6%
30 30.5%
Q1-201 016 Q1-201 017 Q3-201 017 Q3-201 018 Q1-201 016Q1-201 017 Q3-201 017 Q3-201 018
*
* * perso son 37 375,9 ,982 IDR173.8tn tn
1.6%
Q3-201 017 Q3-201 018
IDR176.6tn tn IDR84.7tn tn IDR64.9tn tn IDR111.7tn tn Trade & Repar paratio tion Non Metallic tallic Mine neral l Indust ustry 89.1 173.8
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 FDI DDI TOTAL
2018
Decreasin ing Decreasin ing
24
Conducive cive Environment ment Underpin rpinning ning Strong ng Growth th Fundam ament ental als
Larges gest t Economy my in South East Asia 4th Most Populous country y in the World; ; 64% in productiv tive e age Manageable Inflatio tion Rate Risin ing g Middle e Class and Affluen ent t Custome mers
From commodity-based to man anufa ufactur urin ing and servic vice sectors via infrast astruc ucture development From consum umptio ion-led to investment-led growth via a strong nger manufac anufactur urin ing sector and more investment init itia iative ives Policie ies to maint aintai ain n pur urchas asing ing power to stim imulat ate domestic ic economy in the mid idst
ing mac acroeconomic ic condit itio ions Budget reform as a a part of larger economic ic reform init itiat iative Tax base to be broad adened from
uce dependency on commodit itie ies Fuel subsid idie ies signif ific ican antly y reduc uced and spendin ing redir irected to more produc uctive allocat atio ion Prud udent debt man anag agement
Refor
iente ted Adminis inistr tratio ion
Three main ain sources of finan ancin ing for investment needs: Stat ate and regio ional al budget, Stat ate Owned Enterpris ises and PPP Contin inui uing from 2015 polic icy, infras astructur ure will be higher than fuel subsid idy Fiscal al and non-fis iscal al incentive ives to attrac act infras astructur ure investment and promote PPP Infras astructur ure spendin ing focused on basic ic infras astructur ure projects
Larg rge e and Stable able Econo nomy Consi nsiste tent nt Budg dget t Reform
New Econom nomic ic Structu ructure re High h Infras rastructu ructure re Investments
25
0.04 3.83 3.27 (2.07) (0.16) 3.74 3.31 (1.73) (0.36) 4.01 3.14 (1.81) (0.30) 4.01 3.19 (1.70) (0.42) 4.21 3.09 5.12 4.94 4.93 5.05 4.82 4.74 4.77 5.17 4.92 5.18 5.01 4.94 5.01 5.01 5.06 5.19 5.06 5.27 5.17
1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 QoQ YoY
Indonesia’s Strong GDP
Growth th Prospe pect ct Strong ng GDP Growth th1
%
Instit itutio ions 201 2018 GDP growth (%YoY) 2018 Budget 5.4 Bank Indonesia 5.0 – 5.4 IMF 5.3 World Bank 5.3 ADB 5.3 Consensus Forecast (November 2018) 5.2
Favo vour urable ble GDP Growth th Compar pared to Peers2
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption 2. Source: World Economic Outlook Database – April 2018; * indicates estimated figure %
quarter
2018
back
domestic demand. The data points to stronger domestic demand in the reporting period, with growth increasing from 6.35% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2018 to 6.40% (yoy).
driving economic growth mostly stemmed from investment and government expenditure. Investment growth accelerated to 6.96% (yoy) from 5.86% (yoy) in the previous period, supported by building and non-building investment. Government expenditure grew by 6.28% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2018, the highest level recorded since 2016.
5.1 5.3 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Indonesia India Philippines Bulgaria Colombia
26
GDP Growth th Break akdown wn
GDP Growth th by Secto ctor (%, YoY YoY)
By sectors 2014 14 2015 15 2016 16 2017 17 2018 18 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Agriculture, forestry, and fishery 5.2 4.9 3.6 3.3 4.2 3.7 6.5 2.9 1.6 3.8 1.5 3.5 3.2 5.5 3.4 7.2 3.2 2.8 2.2 3.8 3.3 4.8 3.6 Mining and Quarrying
0.7 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.6 (3.6) (4.4) (6.0) (3.4) 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.9 (1.2) 2.1 1.8 0.1 0.7 0.9 2.6 2.7 Manufacturing 4.5 4.9 5.0 4.2 4.6 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.3 4.3 4.3 3.5 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.6 3.8 4.3 Construction 7.2 6.5 6.5 7.7 7.0 6.0 5.4 6.8 7.1 6.4 6.8 5.1 5.0 4.2 5.2 6.0 6.9 7.0 7.2 6.8 7.4 5.7 5.8 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Car and Motorcycle 6.1 5.1 5.2 4.4 5.2 3.8 1.6 1.4 3.5 2.5 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.6 3.5 5.2 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.2 5.3 Transportation and Storage 7.0 7.6 7.7 7.2 7.4 6.3 6.0 7.0 7.5 6.7 7.4 6.5 8.2 7.6 7.4 8.1 8.8 8.9 8.2 8.5 8.6 8.7 5.6 Information and communication 9.9 10.7 9.8 10.1 10.1 9.7 9.3 10.6 9.2 9.7 7.6 9.3 8.9 9.6 8.9 10.5 11.1 8.8 9.0 9.8 8.5 5.9 9.0 Financial service 3.6 5.5 1.9 7.9 4.7 8.6 2.6 10.3 12.8 8.6 9.3 13.6 9.0 4.2 8.9 6.0 5.9 6.2 3.9 5.5 4.3 3.0 3.4 Other Services* 5.4 4.7 5.9 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.5 4.8 5.5 5.4 6.0 5.6 4.5 3.8 4.9 4.1 3.5 4.8 6.1 4,7 5.5 6.3 6.7 GDP 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS) *Other services consist of 10 sectors (according to Standard National 2008)
GDP Growth th Based on Expe penditu itures es (%, YoY YoY)1
By expen pendit diture 2014 14 2015 15 2016 16 2017 17 2018 18 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot. Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Tot Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3
5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 Non profit HH. consumption 23.2 22.4 5.8 (0.5) 12.2 (8.1) (8.0) 6.6 8.3 (0.6) 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 8.1 8.5 6.0 5.2 6.9 8.1 8.7 8.5 Government consumption 6.1 (1.8) 1.2 0.9 1.2 2.9 2.6 7.1 7.1 5.3 3.4 6.2 (3.0) (4.0) (0.1) 2.7 (1.9) 3.5 3.8 2.1 2.7 5.2 6.3 Gross Fixed Cap. Formation 5.4 4.0 4.4 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.0 4.9 6.4 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.3 7.1 7.3 6.2 7.9 5.9 7.0 Exports 3.1 1.5 4.9 (4.4) 1.1 (0.6) (0.3) (1.0) (6.4) (2.1) (3.1) (1.5) (5.8) 4.1 (1.6) 8.4 2.8 17.0 8.5 9.1 6.1 7.6 7.5 Imports 5.1 0.4 0.2 3.0 2.1 (2.6) (7.1) (6.5) (8.6) (6.2) (5.0) (3.5) (4.1) 2.7 (2.4) 4.8 0.2 15.5 11.8 8.1 12.8 15.3 14.1 GDP 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption
27
Regio gional al Growth th Remains ains Positi tive ve
Higher Growth th Occurr urred In Most Of The Regio ions ns and Java Still Contrib ibut utes Meanin ningfull ully
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS)
29
1.79 (8.03) (2.22) (0.40) (8.85) 5)
2 4 6 8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1*Q2*Q3*Q4*Q1*Q2* Q3** 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018** Goods Services Primary Income Secondary Income Current Account US$bn
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 FX Reserves (LHS) Month of Import & Debt Service (RHS)
Month US$bn
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 OG Non-OG Total
Exter ernal al Bal alan ance ce under r Contr trol l Support rted ed by A y Adequ quate ate Re Reser serves es
Curren ent t Account Defic icit it withi hin Safe Thres esho hold Balance e of Payme ments Portrait it Substantia tial FX Reser erves es to Mitiga igate te Exter ernal Challen enges ges Trade e Balance Defic icit it in line e with h Imp mprovin ing g Economi mic Activ ivities ities
Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia Source: BPS * Preliminary Figure ** Very Preliminary Figure
2015: Surplus us US$7.59bn 2013 2013: Defic icit it (US$4.10bn) n) 2014 2014: Defic icit it (US$2.37bn) n) 201 2016: : Surplus us US$8.83b 3bn 2017: Surplus us US$11.83bn bnSource: Bank Indonesia FX Reserves s as of Octo tober 201 2018: US$115 15.2 bn n (Equiv
ths s of impo ports ts + servic icin ing of government t debt) t) US$bn
2015 2015: CA Defic icit (US$17.5bn) n) 2012: 2012: CA Defic icit (US$24.4bn) n) 2013: 2013: CA Defic icit (US$29.1bn) n) 2014: 2014: CA Defic icit (US$27.5bn) n) 201 2016: CA Defic icit (US$16.9b 9bn) n) 201 2017: CA Defic icit (US$17.3 .3bn) n)
(8.85) .85) 4.17 17 (4.39) .39) 115 5
40 80 120 160
5 10 15 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1*Q2*Q3*Q4*Q1*Q2* Q3** 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018** Current Account Capital and Financial Account Overall Balance Reserve Asset (RHS) US$bn US$bn
30
Exchang ange Rate In Li Line ne with Fundam ament entals als
Move veme ment nt of Rupia iah Rupia iah Exc xchang nge Rate Fared Relative latively ly Well ll Compar pared to Peers
IDR/US$
Th The Rup upiah iah exchan ange rat ate move ves ac according to to market mechan anis isms an and sup upports the process of
adjust ustment to to sust ustain ain economic ic sust ustain ainab abil ilit
Rupiah recorded depreciation in the third quarter and October 2018 and then strengthened in November 2018. Point to point, the Rupiah weakened by 3.84% in the third quarter of 2018 and 1.98% in October 2018 due to global economic
capital inflows triggered by still conducive domestic economic conditions, financial market deepening policies, and the influence of positive sentiments from the US election result and easing trade tensions between the US and China. Foreign capital inflows to the domestic financial market occur in all types of assets, including the stock market. With these developments, until November 14, 2018, year to date (ytd) Rupiah depreciated 8.25% or lower than Turkey, South Africa, India and Brazil. Going forward, Bank Indonesia will remain vigilant of the risks of uncertainty in the global financial market by continuing to carry out measures to stabilize the exchange rate according to its fundamental values, and maintaining the
the market mechanism, supported by financial market development efforts.
Source: Bank Indonesia
YTD 2018 vs 201 017
Rupia iah Exc xchang nge Rate Volatil tilty ty
1.82 5.13 2.55 7.05 3.05
2.69 4.78
1.39
0.0 5.0 10.0 JPY THB SGD MYR KRW PHP CNY EUR IDR INR BRL ZAR TRY
point-to-point average
%
Data as of November 14th, 2018 34.5 .5 7.5 25.6 .6 30.2 .2 9.0 9.9 4.2 5.6 3.0 10.7 .7 23.3 .3 22.1 .1 19.5 .5 12.4 .4 11.3 .3 10.2 .2 8.6 5.3 4.0 3.9 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 TRY IDR ZAR BRL KRW INR PHP SGD MYR THB Oct-18 Nov-18
%
14,787 13,378 13,603 13,760 13,809 14,043 14,058 14,409 14,561 14,869 15,176 14,808 13,576 13,952 14,601 15,064 13,250 13,450 13,650 13,850 14,050 14,250 14,450 14,650 14,850 15,050 15,250 15,450 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov IDR/USD Monthly Average Quarterly Average Data as of November 14th, 2018
31
Bank Indonesia’s Policy licy Direct ection ion
To maintain ain Rupiah ah stabilit lity and support growth
A pre-emptive, front- loading and ahead-of- the-curve policy response Strengthening the monetary operations in the foreign exchange and money markets To stabilise the rupiah exchange rate, while consistently controlling inflation within the 2018-2019 target range of 3.5±1% To stabilise the rupiah exchange rate, adjust fair prices in the financial markets and maintain adequate liquidity in the money market To maintain adequate liquidity in the rupiah money market and interbank swap market To form rational expectations, thus helping to mitigate the rupiah overshooting its fundamental level. Dual intervention in the foreign exchange market and government securities (Surat Berharga Negara – SBN) market in a measured way Intensive communication, especially to market players, banks, businesses, and economists
4 3 2
Measures es To To Stabilize lize Rupia piah h Excha hange ge Rate te Measures es To Supp ppor
t Gro rowth th
Further easing of macroprudential policy Payment system development to support digital economy To bolster the growth of the property sector which has positive impact to the economy Coordination with the Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, and the Financial Services Authority to accelerate financial market deepening, particularly in private financing for infrastructure. Electronification to support social assistance disbursement and financial transcation of the central and regional government Sharia economy and finance development to create halal value chain, sharia financal sector development both for commercial and social purposes, including its education and communication Policy coordination to accelerate financial market deepening Sharia economy and finance development
4 3 2 1 1
Source: Bank Indonesia
32
Ampl ple Li Lines of D Defen efense se Against ainst Ext xter ernal nal Shocks cks
Ample level of FX reserves to buffer against external shock
FX Reserves as of October 2018: US$115.2 billion
South th Korea
Renewed a 3 year KRW / IDR swap arrangement with the size of up to KRW 10.7 trillion / IDR 115 trillion in March 2017
Australia alia
Established a 3 year A$/IDR swap arrangement of up to A$10 billion or IDR 100 trillion in August 2018
Chia iang g Mai i Initia tiative tive Multila ltilatera terali liza zation tion (CMIM IM) ) Agreem eemen ent
Entitled to a maximum swap amount of US$ 22.76 bn under the ASEAN+3 (Japan, China, and Korea) FX reserves pool created under the agreement
Came into effect in 2010 with a pool of US$120 bn
Doubled to US$240 bn effective July 2014
Japan
USD22.76 billion swap line with Japan currently in place
As of October 14th,2018, the facility is available in USD and JPY
The size of the swap line was increased from USD12 billion in December 2013
IMF Global al Financ ncial ial Safety ty Net
Indonesia is entitled to access IMF facilities for crisis prevention to address potential (actual) BOP problem
Such facilities include Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL)
Bilateral teral Regio iona nal Global al FX Reserv rve
Ampl ple Reserve ves Swa wap p Arrang ngeme ment nt
Source: Bank Indonesia
ASEAN N Swap p Arra rangem gemen ent (ASA)
Entitled to a maximum swap amount of USD600 million under ASA
The first MoU on the ASA was signed in 1977 among 5 ASEAN Central Banks with total facility USD100 million
Doubled to USD2 billion in 2005
Singapo apore
Established a one year SGD/IDR swap arrangement with a size up to USD10 billion (equivalent) in November 2018
China
Renewed a 3 year swap arrangement and increased the size of swap line up to CNY 200 bn / USD 30 billion in November 2018
33
Solid id Policy cy Coordi dina natio tion
In Managin aging Financial ancial Market kets Volati tili lity ty
Source: Ministry of Finance First Line of Defense State’s Budget Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing and Risk Management Investment fund at Public Service Agency (BLU) (min. level Aware) Stat ate Owned Enterprises (BUMN)’s Budget Related SOEs (min. level Aware) Social al Secur urity y Organ anizing zing Agency y (BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Aware) Second Line of Defense State’s Budget
State General Treasury Account (Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert) Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min. Level Crisis)
Gov’t Securities Crisis is Mana nage gement ent Proto tocol (CMP)
Bond nd Stabilizatio ilization n Framew ework rk
The enac actm tment nt of Law No. 9/201 016 6 regar arding ng Prevention ntion and Mitig tigat ation
nancial al Syste tem Crises as a legal foundation for the government to serves at the time of financial crisis in the form of Financi Financial al Syste tem Stabili ability ty Com
ttee (KSSK) KSSK membe bers: the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority, and the Deposit Insurance Corporation Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation Enhancing coordination between government institutions and continuous dialogue with market participants Implementing Crisis Management Protocol (CMP)
CMP
Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework (BSF)
BSF
34
Streng engthened hened Pri rivate te Exter erna nal Deb ebt Risk Man anag agem ement ent
Regulat atio ion Key Points Phase 1 Jan 1,2015 – Dec 31,2015 Phase 2 Jan 1,2016 – Dec 31,2016 Phase 3 Jan 1, 2017 & & beyond
Obj bjec ect of Regu gulatio ion Governs all Foreign Currency Debt Hedg dgin ing g Ratio io < 3 months 20%* 25%** > 3 – 6 months 20%* 25%** Liquid idit ity y Ratio io (< 3 months) 50% 70% Credi edit Ratin ing Not applicable Minimum rating of BB- Hedg dgin ing g transactio ction n to meet hedg dge ratio io not necessarily be done with a bank in Indonesia Must be done with a bank in Indonesia Sanctio ion As of Q IV-2015 Applied Exter ernal Debt/ bt/GDP (%)
Debt Burden en Indicator (Exter ernal Debt/G /GDP DP) ) Rema mains Comp mparable e to Peers Rating
Enco cour uragin ing Corpor porate tes Compli lianc nce on Hedgin ing Ratio io & Liqui uidity ty Ratio io
Source: Bank Indonesia
Liquid idity ity Ratio* Hedging ging Ratio*
*Data as of Q2 2018, with total population 2.727 corporates
Regulatio tion on Pruden entia tial Prin incipl iple in Managing g Exter ernal Debt
Source: Bank Indonesia 22.4 21.6 32.8 42.2 64.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 India Philippines Indonesia Colombia Bulgaria 2019F 2018F 2017
Source: Moody’s Statistical Handbook, May 2018
2,432 ; 89.2% 295 ; 10.8%
≤ 3 m mont nths hs
2,542 ; 93.2% 185 ; 6.8%
> 3
mont nths hs
2,377 ; 87.2% 350 ; 12.8%
Comply Not Comply
35
Healthy althy Exter erna nal Deb ebt Composit sitio ion
Exte xterna nal l Debt Struc uctur ture
Source: Bank Indonesia, External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, November 2018 *Provisional Figures **Very Provisional Figures
The Struc uctur ture of Exte terna nal l Debt bt is Domin inate ted by Long ng-Te Term m Debt bt Exte xterna nal l Debt t Rema mains ns Manageabl ble Exte xterna nal l Debt t to GDP Ratio io & Debt bt to Expo xport t Ratio io
42.6 41.4 47.4 50.0 53.6 55.8 54.1 50.5 48.8 48.8 49.2 48.6 48.7 49.3 49.6 49.6 49.8 50.2 57.4 58.6 52.6 50.0 46.4 44.2 45.9 49.5 51.2 51.2 50.8 51.4 51.3 50.7 50.4 50.4 50.2 49.8 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Private Debt Government and Central Bank Debt 18.3 21.2 20.7 21.7 21.2 20.2 17.9 17.1 15.5 16.2 16.0 16.0 15.8 15.9 15.1 15.7 15.6 15.8 81.7 78.8 79.3 78.3 78.8 79.8 82.1 82.9 84.5 83.8 84.0 84.0 84.2 84.1 84.9 84.3 84.4 84.2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Short Term External Debt Long Term External Debt 121.8 114.9 101.0 113.8 123.1 139.5 168.4 176.1 167.9 166.7 160.6 157.8 31.8 26.5 25.0 27.4 29.1 32.9 36.1 34.3 34.8 34.8 34.2 34.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 % % External Debt to Export Ratio External Debt / GDP Ratio (rhs) 11.5 17.1 11.3 12.0 5.4 10.2 5.9 3.0 10.3 9.0 5.7 4.2 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 % Million USD External Debt External Debt Growth (rhs)
36
Man anag ageable eable External rnal Debt bt Profile le
Short rt term non-ba bank nk corpo rporate debt (non affi filia liation) ion) repr pres esen ents ts
8.9%
total priva vate externa rnal debt
Priv ivate te Short-Term Term1 Priv ivate te Non-Bank Exter ernal Debt Positio tion
Af Affil iliat iation Non Af Affil iliat iation
US$132.4bn
73.3%
Debt US$19.6bn
10.8%
US$12.7bn
7.0% 0%
ate Ext. . Debt t US$16 16.0bn 0bn
8.9% 9%
ate Ext. . Debt t
Public ic Long Term 1 Priv ivate te Bank
US$28.7bn
15,9%
US$180.6bn
50 50.2%
US$48.2bn
26 26.7%
External Debt Position as of September 2018
1 Based on remaining maturity
Source: External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, November 2018
US$359 59.8bn bn
US$179.2bn
49.8%
Debt
38
Integ tegrated ted Reform
to Prov
ide Higher her Quality ity
Econo
mic Growth wth
Struct ctur ural al reform rms to enhance ance potential ial growth wth and navig igate throug ugh chall lleng nges
State Budget that declines poverty and income inequality
competitive, and innovative real sectors
and investment policies that support growth, efficiency, and stability
policy to support macroeconomic stability
stability and sustainable current account deficit
and credible financial sector Fiscal al Real al Secto tor Mone netary ary & Finan ancial ial Secto ctor
Synergy gy in reform rm to boost the more sustainab nable le and inclu lusiv ive growth wth
Source: Ministry of Finance
39
Growth th Momentum ntum is Expected cted to Contin tinue ue
Several al key drivers rs and strategie ies to accele lerate growt wth
Strateg egies ies to Encour
Grow
th Key Driv iver ers
ion remains robust among
supported by benign inflation
estment ent grows stably supported by infrastructure acceleration, business climate improvement, rating upgrades, economic packages
and Impor
keeps improving driven by increasing demand and improving prices
from sever eral import rtan ant events ts such as Asian Games, Regional Elections, and IMF-WB annual meeting
intainin taining g purchasing ing powe wer, r, boosting ing domes estic ic demand nd and suppor
ting business activity ity. Improve distribution channels Increased shopping events, creative industries and festivals in tourism areas Incentives for manufacture Developing e-commerce industry
ing priva ivate te sector
nt Strengthening and deepening financial markets Making a stable investment climate through political stability
nd servic ices es sector, especially ially touris urism Increasing foreign tourists arrival through cooperation with other countries by increasing the direct flight schedule Encouraging national creative industry growth
Risks ks & Challe halleng nges es
Globa bal econo nomic ic uncert rtain ainties ties: China economic rebalancing and its financial vulnerability, advanced countries policy normalization, geopolitic, and climate change
40
2019 State Bu Budget et (AP APBN BN 2019) 9)
Healthie hier, r, More Equit itable able, Self-Suf Sufficie icient nt
Healt althier hier
1.84%
GDP, the lowest since 2013
positive primary balance
to GDP ratio below 30%
GDP
More equit uitab able le
decentralization (increasing fiscal transfer to regions)
scisl protection programs
human capital quality improvement (inter-generational fairness)
Self lf suffic icie ient nt
tax revenue
the share
local currency bond issuance
financial deepening
export
Macroecono economic ic Assum umption ption
Growth th 5.3% Inflation tion 3.5% 3 months ths T-bill lls 5.3% Exchang nge Rate 15,000/US$ ICP 70/barrel Oil Lifting ing 775 thousands barrel/day Gas Liftin ing 1,250 thousands barrel/day
Dev evelop lopmen ent Target Unempl ploy
nt 4.8% – 5.2% Pov
erty ty 8.5 – 9.5 Gini ni ratio tio 0.38 – 0.39 HDI 71.98 REVENU NUE Rp2,165.1 T Tax Rp1,786.4 T Non Tax Rp378.3 T Gran ant Rp0.4T EXPEND NDITURE ITURE Rp2,461.1 T Cen entr tral al Gov
ernmen ent Rp1,634.3T Tran ansfer er to Region gion Rp756.8 T Villag lage Fund nd Rp70.0 T
Deficit it Rp296.0 T (1.84%
GDP) Primary imary Balance ce (Rp20.1 T) Debt Finan ancing ing Rp359.3 T Inves estment ent Rp75.9T
Source: Ministry of Finance
41
More Credible dible an and Real alis istic tic Budget et
…providing more certainty to all stakeholders
Indic icator 2017 17
2017
2018 18 2019 19 R-Budge Budget Realiz ization Budget dget Budget dget Economic ic growt wth (%, yoy)
5.2 5.1 5.4 5.3
Inflatio ion (%, yoy)
4.3 3.6 3.5 3.5
3-Mo Month Treasury y Bill (SPN PN) (%)
5.2 5.0 5.2 5.3
Exchang nge Rate e (Aver erage ge, IDR/US USD)
13,400 13,384 13,400 15,000
ICP (USD/ba barrel)
48 51.2 48 70
Oil il Productio ction n (thousand nd barrel el/da day)
815 804 800 775
Gas Produ ductio ction n (mil illions ns barrel el/da day)
1.15 1.14 1.20 1.25 Macroeconomic Assum umptio ion for 2018 & 2019 Budget
Source: Ministry of Finance
ible and realis istic tic budget, given that the 2016 and 2017 full year realization is relatively accurate with the budget.
accurate with the revised budget. This goes along with accurate macroeconomic indicators relative to the budget.
with substantial increase in Revenues, mainly contributed by 20.4% tax revenue increase compared to 2017 realization.
lower compared to 2017 realization.
Descriptio ion (IDR Tril illio ion) 2016 Audit ited Realizat ization 2017 Audit ited Realizat ization 2018 2019 Budget % difference with R- Budget Realizat ization (a.o. Oct 31) % Realizat izatio ion to Budget Proposed Budg dget Budget Difference of Budget to Proposed d Budget A. A. Revenue ues and Gran ants 1,555.9 1,666 66.4 1,894.7 9.1 1,483.9 78.3 2,142.5 2,165.1 22.6
1,546.9 1,654.8 1,893.5 9.3 1,476.1 77.9 2,142.1 2,164.7 22.6
1,285.0 1,343.5 1,618.1 9.9 1,160.7 71.7 1,781.0 1,786.4 5.4
262.0 311.2 275.4 5.8 315.4 114.5 361.1 378.3 17.2
9.0 11.6 1.2
7.8 648.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 B. Expendit iture 1,864.3 2,007.3 2,220.7 4.1 1,720.8 77.5 2,439.7 2,461.1 21.4
1,154.0 1,265.3 1,454.5 6.4 1074.4 73.9 1,607.3 1,634.3 27.0
684.2 765.1 847.4 6.1 586.4 69.2 840.3 855.4 15.2
469.8 500.2 607.1 6.8 488.0 80.4 767.1 778.9 11.8
710.3 742.0 766.2
646.4 84.4 832.3 826.8
C. C. Prim imar ary y Balan ance
22.2
1.6 D. Surplus us (Defic icit it)
1.2 % of GDP
E. Finan ancin ing 334.5 366.6 325.9
320.0 98.2 297.2 296.0
42
Increasing easing Tax ax Reven enue ue Over er The Years
Tax revenue in 2019 is expected to grow by 15,4% from 2018’s
supported by continuo inuous us tax reform rm
Source: Ministry of Finance
Tax Revenue nue (in IDR trilli lion)
1,146.9 1,240.4 1,285.0 1,343.5 1,548.5 1,786.4 13.7% 11.6% 10.8% 10.7% 11.6% 12.2%
1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Outlook 2019 Budget
Ratio io to GDP (%) - RHSa
aTax ratio derived from tax revenue + revenue from natural resources/GDPto total revenue is increasing From 74% in 2014 to 82.5% in 2019
allowance, etc) are provided to maintain the sustainability of the investment climate and increase competitiveness
Improvin ving the dwelling time: Accelerating the service of Bonded Logistics Centre (Pusat Logistik Berikat) Simplifying the import procedure Import duty and tax payment 24x7 (with MPN G2) including customs service 24x7 Continuing the preve ventio ion of smug ugglin ing and controlling illegal al excise goods (cigarettes, alcohol) Effic icie iency of logistic ic costs Continuing the control of importers, exporters, and high risk excise policy (PIBT, PEBT and PCBT) synergy with DG Tax, army, police, and public prosecutor Developing/expanding Kemud udahan ahan Impor Tujua uan Ekspor (KITE TE) facility for SMEs Adding new excise goods (plas astic packag agin ing)
2019 CUSTOM OM AND EXCISE SE POLI LICY
Law enforcement a. Conducting fair law enforcement b. Improving audit quality by reforming governance Tax complian ance supervis visio ion a. Implementing the AEol and financial information access b. Extensification and enhancing supervision as a follow-up to tax amnesty c. Handling SMEs end-to-end by Business Development Services (BDS) approach d. Establishing DG Tax-DG Customs and Excise joint program e. Improving tax database f. Implementing the Compliance Risk Management (CRM) Strengthenin ing the taxat atio ion servic vice
2019 TAXATION ON POLICY ICY
43
Non-Tax ax Reven enue ue
Encour urag aged by rising ng in
prices, s, increas asing ing quali lity and volume me
service ices, s, and improving ing governan rnance ce (non-tax ax revenue nue in 2019)
Source: Ministry of Finance
Use of Integr grat ated ed Technol nology
system. Follo lowing ing-up up the amend ndme ment nt of non tax x revenu enue e law
service.
percent)
398.6 255.9 262.0 311.2 349.2 378.3 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Outlook 2019 Budget
Non-Tax ax Revenue nue (in IDR trillion) n)
Product uct Optimizat imization
expansion, environment sustainability, and business continuity. Improvin
g Services vices and Adjus usting ing Tariffs iffs
and optimizing imizing stat ate e proper erty management gement. Incre reas asing ing Stat ate-Owned ned Enter erprises rises (BUM UMN) ) Divid vidend end
hflow low and financial ability by expanding business and executing government assignment.
Non-Tax ax Revenue nue General al Policy
44
Commitm tment nt to Contin tinue ue Streng ngth thenin ening Productive ductive Spending ing
Alloca cating ing budget to a more product uctive ive spendin ing
2015 Rp1,183.3 T 2016 Rp1,154.0 T 2017 Rp1,259.6 T 2018 Outlook look
Rp1,453.6 T
Central Govern ernmen ent Spendin ing
Line Minis nistries ries
Non Line Mini nistries
Rp.
855,4 ,4 T Rp. Rp.77 778,9 T T
more targeted subsidies.
non- cash distribution.
the limited subsidies
diesel.
the use
renewable energy.
Ener ergy gy Subsidy idy Non Ener ergy gy Subsidy idy Deb ebt Inte terest est
accountability
debt management.
choice
debt composition and utilization
hedging.
the growth
debt financing.
the quality
state apparatus by strengthening bureaucratic reform
social assistance
Expenditure
Expenditure management
subsidy policies that are more targeted.
Source: Ministry of Finance
20 2019
Rp1,634.3 T
and investment increase, followed by strengthening value for money.
disaster reconstruction rehabilitation, democratic agenda).
45
Investm estments ts in Huma man Cap apital tal Has as Been een Ra Rampe ped Up
20%
national nal budget is alloca cated for educa catio ion and anothe her 5% for healt lth
353.4 390.3 370.8 406.0 435.0 492.5
100 200 300 400 500 600
2014 Real 2015 Real 2016 Real 2017 Real 2018 Outlook 2019 Budget
IDR IDR tn
59.7 65.9 91.4 92.4 107.4 123.1
25 50 75 100 125
2014 Real 2015 Real 2016 Real 2017 Real 2018 Outlook 2019 Budget
IDR tn
Budg udget t for Educ ucatio tion n Program Budg udget t for Healt lth Program Quality and Access Improvement: a. Increasing the effectiveness of BOS (School Operations Aid) BOS is based on performance and affirmation. b. The continuity of Program Indonesia Pintar is followed by the increasing of target accuracy. c. Acceleration of the construction of school and university facilities (part of which is carried out by the Ministry of Public Works and DAK supervised by the Ministry of Public Works). d. Expansion of the affirmation/Bidik Misi Scholarship program. e. Allocating the endowment research. f. Enforcement fulfills the education budget by the Regional Government. g. Link and match vocational education.
Some Improvem ements ents are made for 2019 Educ ucatio ion Progr gram am Some Improvem ements ents are made for 2019 Health th Progr gram am
Quality and Access Improvement: a. Expansion of Contribution Aid Recipients (PBI) in the framework of National Health Insurance (JKN) (2015: 86.4 million people; 2019: 96.8 million people) followed by an increase in target accuracy. b. Improving services at first-level health facilities. c. Strengthening the stunting handling by specific and sensitive nutrition intervention in 160 regencies/cities (2018: 100 regencies/cities). d. Continuing the optimalization of BPJS health deficit handling policy:
46
Subsid bsidy Policy licy is Directed cted to be Better Targeted ted and nd Tow
ard Non
cash Di Distributio tribution
throug ugh various us polici cies in energy and non-ene nergy subsid idy
Source: Ministry of Finance
(Tn IDR)
Ener ergy gy Subsidy idy increa eases, Part rtly ly due due to to the chang nge of
hang nge rate te assum umption ption Oil and gas as subs bsidy idy Electr tric icit ity subsidy idy
100 100.7 59.3
No Non-en ener ergy gy sub ubsidy dy am amoun
is is the he sam ame wit ith government’s propos
al in in RAPBN PBN 2019 Fert rtil iliz izer er sub ubsidy idy 29
29.5
el limit ited ed subsidy sidy
mprovin ing the he tar arget et of
gas ben enef efic iciar iarie ies: households, micro businesses, and low- income fishermanPerbaikan sasaran
mprovin ing the he tar arget et sub subsi sidy ac accu curac acy for 450 and 900 VA users
ific icatio ion ratio io Supporting food security is fitted to the land area
119.1 106.8 97.6 163.5 160.0
100.0 150.0 200.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Outlook APBN 2019
Energy Subsidy
BBM dan LPG 3 Kg Listrik
3.5% 67.4% 8.6% 10.3%
Tn IDR
66.9 67.4 68.8 64.7 64.3
40.0 60.0 80.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Outlook APBN 2019
Non-energy Subsidy
Pupuk Pangan Benih PSO Bunga Kredit Program Pajak DTP
0.5% 6.0% 1.9% 0.8%
Busine iness credit dit (KUR UR) subsidy idy
12 12.0
KUR distribution target is Rp120 T with 7% interest rate for SMEs and Indonesian workers
Hous using ing inte terest est subsidy idy 3.5
For lo low-in inco come me popula pulatio ion with 100 thousand units publishing
Oil and Gas 3 Kg Electricity
Tn IDR
Fertilizer Food Crops Credit interest Tax borne
224 224.3
2019 Subsidy idy Budg dget et
47
Incr creas easing ing Tran ansfer sfer to Regions ions and nd Villag lage Fund nd (T (TKDD DD)
to support public ic service ice in the region
Source: Ministry of Finance
Increasing allocation
Transfer to Regions and Village Fund (TKDD) Budget proport
ionally ly (fits to the region’s needs and capacity, and also state financial capabilities) Supporting the regions financing needs (to provide services and developments) Focus
decrea easing ing ser ervic ice inequ equality lity between-region Sy Synchr hroniz nizin ing planning and budgeting
TKDD dengan belanja K/L Maintaining the 5 years sustainability development program (human resource development, connectivity, tourism destination, poverty reduction, village fund strengthening) Encourage eff effec ective, eff effic icie ient, an and pr produ
use
region’s budget with value for money as its principle.
573.7
623.1
710.3
742.0 763.6 826.8
11.8 8.6 14.0 4.5 2.9 8.3
04 06 08 10 12 14 16
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Outlook 2019 APBN DBH DAU DTK DID Otsus & DIY Dana Desa Growth (%)
Village Fund Trilion IDR %
48
2017 Achiev ievem ement ents
S State te Budget et
Value ue creatio ion
various us project cts and count ntry ry developmen ment
Health thcare and Socia ial Sec ecurity: ty:
92.1 million people
Educati ucation: n:
million students
Infr frast structu ture: e:
Local Gover ernment ment Achi hievements ements Centr ntral Government Milest stones es
15.5% 101.7% 118 18.5% 7.4% 23.0% 27.8%
2016 (excluding Tax Amnesty and Asset Revaluation)
and excise over 2017 revised Budget, a 7.4% increase vs. 2016
2017 revised Budget, a growth of 17.7% vs 2016
government spending
growth vs. 2016, a 92.8% over 2017 revised Budget.
to village vs. 2016, 99.6% over 2017 revised Budget Roads: 1,033 km in development, 1,503 km maintenance, 9,789 km improvement Brid idges: 3,749 m bridge in development, 291 m maintenance, and 2,916m improvement Clas assroom: 1,351 new classrooms, 11,006 rehabilitation, 11,758 rural library collection Medic ical: Improved facilities in 347 hospitals and 3,873 clinics Tu Tuition: Reduced tuition costs for 46.6 million students and 5.6 million kindergarten- aged children Welfare: Increased welfare and work ethics of 1.7 million civil teachers in rural areas and compensated 41,000 teachers in special regions Rural al: 107,9 village roads, 89,200 health clinics, 178,800 toilets, and 107,700 connected clean water and 25,903 Ha irrigated lands Source: Ministry of Finance
49
Indonesia’s Tax Amnesty Program – A Succes ess Story ry
With more than 965, 965,900 taxpayers rs particip cipating ing in the program
Tax Amne nesty ty Resul ult (as of the end nd of March ch 31st
st, 2017)
Redemp mption tion Mone ney Assets ts Decla clared
114.2 4.2 18.8 .8
1.7 Preliminary Evidence Payment 1% Redemption Money 85% Tax Arrears Payment 14%
Reven enue IDR 134. 4.8t 8tn n (~1. 1.1% 1% GDP) P)
3,323.3 .36 861.8 .81 594.9 .99 85.59 Individuals 68% Individual SMEs 18% Companies 12% SMEs 2%
Compo posit ition n of Partic icipa ipants Based ed on Asset et Declared ed
0.04 0.15 0.20 0.62 1.10 0.58 0.17 0.12 0.04 Germany (2004) Belgium (2004) Italy (2009) Chile (2015) Indonesia (2016) India (1997) South Africa (2003) Spain (2012) Australia (2014) % of GDP 2.1 3.9 8.3 39.3 5.2 3.6 0.3 0.3
India (1997) Spain (2012) Chile (2015) Indonesia (2016) Italy (2009) South Africa (2003) Australia (2014)
% of GDP 3,698 1,036 147.1 .1
Onshore Declaration 76% Offshore Declaration 21%
Repatriation 3%
Asset Declared IDR 4,881tn (~39.4% of GDP) Source: Ministry of Finance
50
Finan ancing cing Policy cy 2018: 8: Gener neral al Objective jective & P Policy cy
To support the development
deep, active, and liquid market To enhance public accountability as part
transparent Government debt management To meet financing needs at efficient cost and tolerable risk
General al Policy cy
Cost control and debt risk
Source: Ministry of Finance
51
Domestic Debt IDR595.5 tn (75%) Foreign Debt IDR197.8 tn (25%)
Domestic GS IDR591.0 tn Domestic Loan IDR4.5 tn Foreign Denominated Bonds (JPY, EUR, USD) IDR139.3 tn Foreign Loan (Program & Project) IDR58.5 tn
Financing Needs IDR793.3 tn
2018 Finan ancing cing Need eds
Fulfill lled from Governm rnment nt Securit uritie ies IDR 730.2 tn tn (92%) and Loan IDR6 R63.1 tn tn (8%)
Deficit it Rp325,9 T Debt t matu ture res Rp394,1 T (inclu lude de Rp10,1 T of Priva ivate te Placem emen ent) Inves estme tment t Financin ing g Rp65,7T Gov
ernmen ent t Guarantee tee Obliga igatio tion Rp1,1T Other er financin ing g (Rp0,2T) T) Lendin ding g Rp6,7T
Source: Ministry of Finance
52
Government Debt Securities Government Sukuk
Indica cative tive Finan ancing cing Plan an for 2018
Creating ing prudent nt and sustainab inable le fiscal al manag agement nt
Gove vernm nment t Se Secur uriti ties to Meet t Stat tate Bud udget Fin inanci cing
Dome mest stic ic Bonds
Weekly auct uction: Conventional securities 25x 25x Islamic securities 24x 24x Non-Auct uction Retail bonds (ORI, Retail Sukuk, Online Savings Bond Retail, Savings Sukuk) Private Placement Based on request Tar arget avg. tenor mat aturity for Government Secur uritie ies (SB SBN) N) Issua uance 7-8 ye year ars
Instrum uments nts Indic icativ tive Budg udget Target*
IDR tn tn USD bn bn Budget et Defic icit it (2.19%) 325.9 24.3 Gover ernment ment Sec ecuritie ties (Net) t) 407.2 30. 30.4 Gover vernmen ment t Sec ecuritie ties (Gros
822.2 61.4 .4
Compo positi tion
Domestic Bond 80-83% International Bond 17-20% Issuance Targets gets for Gover vernmen ent t Debt t Sec ecurit itie ies and Sukuk Inter ternatio tional Bonds (USD, SD, Sukuk USD D EUR, JPY-den enomin minated ted) Avoid crowding out in domestic market Provide benchmarks for corporate bonds Investor base diversification Front t Loading ing Issu suance e for 2018 Budge get Fina nanc ncing ng Faster access to liquidity Anticipate developments in global environment
70.0% - 75.0% 25.0% - 30.0%
*exchange rate assumption in 2018 budget: IDR13,400/USD
Source: Ministry of Finance
53
6.8 (0.4) 1.2 2.1 2.1 1.6 5.1 2.7 (0.6) 5.3 5.5 3.4 (7.1) (6.1) (5.8) (5.3) (4.8) (3.7) (3.3) (2.9) (2.8) (2.2) (1.6) (0.1) India Brazil Japan UK USA S Africa Malaysia Australia Italy Indonesia Turkey Thailand GDP Growh Fiscal Deficit (% GDP)
Discip scipline lined an and Sophist istica icated ted Deb ebt Port rtfolio lio Man anag agem ement ent
Weig ighte ted Ave verage Debt bt Matur urity ity of ~8. 8.5 Years Defic icit it Produc uctivity tivity**
Source: MOF, World Economic Outlook
Well ll Dive versif ifie ied Across Different nt Currenc ncie ies
% of Yearly y Issuance ce Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
Stable ble Debt bt to GDP Ratio Ove ver the Years
US$ bn Government Debt / GDP (%) *using GDP assumption IDR14,596.64 as mentioned in APBN Kita **GDP growth and fiscal deficit numbers are average of 2012-2016 (5 years), ***SDR, AUD, and other. 56% 53% 57% 56% 58% 60% 24% 29% 29% 31% 30% 29% 14% 12% 9% 8% 7% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 IDR USD JPY EUR Others*** 136.3 155.2 174.7 207.0 239.8 239.4 58.6 54.5 54.7 54.7 55.1 54.8 24.9% 24.7% 27.4% 28.3% 29.4% 30.7% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *) Bond Loan Debt/GDP Ratio (RHS) 9.7 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.6 8.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Oct 2018 ATM (in years)
54
Well ll Bal alan ance ced Maturit rity Profile le With th Strong ng Re Resilie silience nce Again ainst st Exter ernal al Shocks cks
Declin clinin ing Inte terest t Rate te Risks ks Debt bt Matur urity ity Profile ile Declin clinin ing Exch change Rate te Risks ks Upco comi ming ng Matur uritie ities (Ne Next 5 Years)
IDR tn tn
Note: using GDP assumption IDR14,596.64 as mentioned in APBN Kita
Source: Ministry of Finance
16.0 14.8 13.7 12.1 10.7 10.6 23.2 21.0 20.7 17.5 19.5 20.4 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Oct 2018 Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing [%] 11.7 10.7 12.2 12.1 11.7 13.0 46.8 43.4 44.5 42.6 40.4 42.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Oct 2018 FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%) 8.6 7.7 8.4 6.5 10.1 11.1 21.7 20.1 21.4 22.7 25.4 26.2 33.3 33.9 34.7 36.0 39.8 41.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Oct 2018 in 1 year (%) in 3 year (%) in 5 year (%) 28 310 174190162169187 51 126139133118 29 140 92 82 97 5 100 29 87 7 15 26 23 21 28 10 34 157 138 158 161168127 158 107104123 30 29 25 24 21 15 35 7 28 33 2 2 2 36 24 32 121 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 IDR Denominated Other Currencies
55
Holders ers
Trad adab able le Centr ntral al Gover ernme nment nt Secu curi rities ies
More Balance nce Ownership rship In Terms
Holders rs and Tenors rs
Foreig ign n Owne wnership p of Gov’t Domestic Debt Secu curitie ities by Teno nor Hold lders of
Source: Ministry of Finance
33.7% 31.0% 23.9% 22.5% 23.4% 28.3% 33.8% 30.8% 37.8% 39.9% 36.8% 34.5% 32.5% 38.1% 38.2% 37.5% 39.8% 37.3% Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Oct-18 Foreign Holders Domestic Non-Banks Domestic Banks 5.2% 4.6% 3.2% 3.5% 5.0% 4.3% 5.4% 3.7% 1.3% 5.3% 5.1% 1.0% 12.9% 15.2% 11.8% 17.8% 17.3% 20.1% 32.0% 33.6% 39.0% 37.4% 35.6% 37.1% 44.5% 42.8% 44.7% 36.0% 37.0% 37.5% 32.5% 38.1% 38.2% 37.5% 39.8% 37.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 31-Oct-18 0-1 ≥1-2 ≥2-5 ≥5-10 ≥10 %Foreign Ownership of Total
56
Owner ersh ship ip of IDR Tra radab able le Cen entr tral al Governm rnment ent Securit urities ies
1) Non Resident consists of Private Bank, Fund/Asset Manager, Securities Company, Insurance Company and Pension Fund. 2) Others such as Securities Company, Corporation, and Foundation. *) Including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia. **) net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks.
(IDR DR tn) Descr criptio iption Dec-14 14 Dec-15 15 Dec-16 16 Dec-17 17 Octobe tober-18 18 Banks* nks*
375. 5.55 55 31.0 .04% 4% 350. 0.07 07 23.9 .95% 5% 399. 9.46 46 22.5 .53% 3% 491. 1.61 61 23.4 .41% 1% 655. 5.54 54 28.2 .29%
Govt Institutio titutions ns (Bank nk Indone nesia ia**)
41.6 .63 3 3.44 44% 148. 8.91 91 10.1 .19% 9% 134. 4.25 25 7.57 57% 141. 1.83 83 6.75 75% 82.8 .85 3.58 58%
Bank Indonesia (gross)
157.88 8.90% 179.84 8.56% 219.50 9.47%
GS used for Monetary Operation
23.63 1.33% 38.01 1.81% 136.65 5.90%
Non-Banks nks
792. 2.78 78 65.5 .52% 2% 962. 2.86 86 65.8 .87% 7% 1,239.5 .57 69.9 .90% 0% 1,466 66.3 .33 69.8 .83% 3% 1,578 78.8 .89 68.1 .14%
Mutual Funds
45.79 3.78% 61.60 4.21% 85.66 4.83% 104.00 4.95% 116.31 5.02%
Insurance Company and Pension Fund
193.90 16.03% 221.45 15.15% 325.52 18.36% 348.86 16.61% 412.59 17.81%
Foreig ign n Hold lders
461. 1.35 35 38.1 .13% 3% 558. 8.52 52 38.2 .21% 1% 665. 5.81 81 37.5 .55% 5% 836. 6.15 15 39.8 .82% 2% 863. 3.65 65 37.2 .27% Foreign Govt's & Central Banks 103.42 8.55% 110.32 7.55% 120.84 6.81% 146.88 6.99% 159.15 6.87%
Individual
30.41 2.51% 42.53 2.91% 57.75 3.26% 59.84 2.85% 53.85 2.32%
Others
60.51 5.00% 78.50 5.37% 104.84 5.91% 117.48 5.60% 132.49 5.72%
Total
1,209.96 100.00% 1,461.85 100.00% 1,773.28 100.00% 2,099.77 100.00% 2,317.28 100 100.00%
Source: Ministry of Finance
58
To Mainta tain in Macroe
conomic and Finan ancial cial Sy Syste tem Stabi bili lity ty
Source: Bank Indonesia
Implementing Macro prudential Intermediation Ratio (RIM) Implementing Macro prudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) Electronification: Social program, e-payment for Government Financial technology National Payment Gateway (NPG) Developing market instruments for financing infrastructure Developing financial market infrastructures Controlling inflation: TPIP, TPID Structural reforms: Government Financial deepening & stability: KSSK (Financial System Stability Committee), OJK (Financial Services Authority) Pre-emptive, front loading and ahead-of-the-curve policy rate response Stabilize exchange rate consistent with fundamentals Accelerate implementation of reserve requirement averaging
Moneta etary ry Polic licy Coordina inatio ion with
er Authorit ities ies Financ ncial ial Marke arket Deepening ning Macro- prude udentia ntial Polic licy Paymen ent Sy System Polic licy
59
Ban ank Indones esia ia Policy cy Mix: November ber 2018
The e BI Board ard of Gov
ernors
gree eed on 14 14th
th and
d 15th
th Novem
ember r 2018 18 to raise ise the e BI 7-Day Revers rse e Repo
te by 25 bps to 6.00 00%, , while le also
ising the e Dep epos
it Facility lity (DF) F) and d Lendin ding Facility ility (LF) ) rate tes by 25 bps to 5.25 25% and d 6.75 75% res espectiv ectively. ely.
Maintains macroprudential policy without adjusting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCB), namely remains at 0%, and the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio (MIR) in the 80-92% target range. To maintain flexibility and liquidity distribution in the banking industry, BI raises the Average Reserve Requirement (conventional and sharia) from 2% to 3% and the Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (conventional and sharia) that can be repurchased to BI, from 2% to 4%, each as a ratio of Third Party Funds. Strengthens efforts to lower current account deficit within a manageable threshold and to improve the attractiveness of domestic financial markets by anticipating global policy rate hike in the next few months. Raises the Bl 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate by 25 bps to 6.00%. Optimizes its policy mix to safeguard macroeconomic and financial system stability, while strengthening policy coordination with the Government and other relevant authorities to maintain economic stability and bolster external resilience, which includes reducing the current account deficit to around 2.5% of GDP in 2019.
Source: Bank Indonesia
60
Princi ciple les
Average ge Re Reserve erve Re Requi uireme rement nt Ra Ratios
vement ent
Substa tance Old Old New Effect ective ive Date a. Additional rupiah average reserve requirement for conventional commercial banks Fixed RR: 5% Average RR: 1.5% RR: 6.5% Fixed RR: 4.5% Average RR: 2% RR: 6.5% 16th July 2018 b. Annulment of demand deposit renumeration 2.5% (from 1.5% RR) 0% 16th July 2018 c. Implementation of foreign exchange average reserve requirement for conventional commercial banks Fixed RR: 8% Average RR: 0% RR: 8% Fixed RR: 6% Average RR: 2% RR: 8%* 1st October 2018 d. Implementation of average reserve requirement for Islamic banks Fixed RR: 5% Average RR: 0% RR: 5% Fixed RR: 3% Average RR: 2% RR: 5%* 1st October 2018
* Complemented by harmonisation feature to align with the average reserve requirement in rupiah feature for conventional commercial banks (e.g. Calculation period, lag period, and Maintenance period of 2 weeks)
in average reserve requirement is a follow up to the monetary policy
framework reform implemented by Bank Indonesia since 2016.
policy
framework reform started in August 2016 as BI7DRR replaced BI Rate as policy rate. This was then strengthened in 1st July 2017, by the implementation
the average reserve requirement in rupiah for conventional commercial banks at 1.5% out of the total 6.5% of GDP reserve requirement in Rupiah. The reformulation is also backed by various efforts in financial market deepening.
banking liquidity management, enhance banking intermediation function, and support efforts in financial market deepening. This multiple targets will in turn improve the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in maintaining economic stability.
Consid ider eratio tions for r the Average rage Reserv rve Requir irem ement ent Ratios ios Impro rovement t
Source: Bank Indonesia
61
Pri rincip iples les
Mac acropru rudentia dential Inte term rmedia ediatio tion Ratio (MIR) R) an and Mac acropr prudential dential Li Liqu quidi idity ty Buffer er (MLB) LB)
Striving to stimulate the bank intermediation function and liquidity management, Bank Indonesia issued Bank Indonesia Regulation (PBI) No. 20/4/PBI/2018 and Board
Governors Regulation (PADG) No. 20/11/PADG/2018 concerning the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio (MIR) and Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) for Conventional Commercial Banks, Sharia Banks and Sharia Business Units. The policy is expected to stimulate the bank intermediation function to the real sector congruent with sectoral capacity and the economic growth target in compliance with prudential principles, while also
the issue
liquidity procyclicality. The regulation is effective for conventional commercial banks from 16th July 2018 and for sharia banks from 1st October 2018.
Consider sideratio ions for Macr croprudential ial Instr trument ments Macr cropr prudenti tial Intermedia mediatio ion Ratio io (MIR) IR) and Macr cropr prudenti tial Liquid idit ity Buff ffer (MLB) B)
1 2 3 4
This macroprudential policy instrument is countercyclical and can be adjusted in line with prevailing economic and financial dynamics.
Source: Bank Indonesia
62
Pri rincipl iples
Mac acropr prudential dential Inter termedia mediatio tion Ra Ratio (MIR)
Regu gula lation ion MIR (Con
entio tional al Com
ercial ial Bank) nk) MIR Shar aria ia (Sha haria ria Banks nks and Sharia aria Busine iness Units) ts)
1 MIR Accounting Formula Credit + Owned Bond Deposit + Issued Bond Financing + Owned Sharia Bond Deposit + Issued Sharia Bond 2 Rate and Parameters Ceiling 92% Floor 80% Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement 14% Upper disincentive parameter 0.2 Lower disincentive parameter 0.1 Ceiling 92% Floor 80% Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement 14% For Sharia business units, the Minimum Capital Adequacy Requirement is the same as that of the parent conventional commercial bank Upper disincentive parameter 0.2 Lower disincentive parameter 0.1 3 Scope of credit/financing and deposits to calculate MIR / MIR Sharia Credit: rupiah and foreign currency Deposits in rupiah and a foreign currency: (i) demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; and (iii) term deposits, excluding interbank funds Financing: rupiah and foreign currency Deposits in rupiah and a foreign currency: (i) wadiah savings; and (ii) unrestricted investment funds, excluding interbank funds 4 Source of Data Monthly Commercial Bank Reports Monthly Sharia Bank Reports 5 Criteria for securities held Corporate bonds and/or corporate sukuk Corporate bonds and/or corporate sukuk Issued by a nonbank corporation and by a resident Offered to the public through a public offering Equivalent to investment grade rating affirmed by a rating agency Administrated by an authorised securities institution
63
Pri rincipl iples
Mac acropr prudential dential Inter termedia mediatio tion Ra Ratio (MIR)
Regu gula lation ion MIR (Con
entio tional al Com
ercial ial Bank) nk) MIR Shar aria ia (Shar Sharia ia Banks nks and Sharia aria Busin iness Units) ts)
6 Percentage
the securities held 100% 7 Criteria for securities issued medium-term notes (MTN), floating rate notes (FRN) and/or bonds other than subordinated bonds sharia-compliant medium-term notes (MTN) and/or sukuk other than subordinated sukuk Issued by a nonbank corporation and by a resident Offered to the public through a public offering Equivalent to investment grade rating affirmed by a rating agency Administrated by an authorised securities institution 8 Securities Reporting Offline delivery mechanism (email) 9 Scope of deposits to meet DD MIR /DD MIR Sharia Average daily total deposits in rupiah at all branch offices in Indonesia Including rupiah liabilities to a resident and non-resident third-party nonbank, consisting
(iii) term deposits, and (iv) other liabilities Average daily total deposits in rupiah at all branch
and sharia business units in Indonesia Including rupiah liabilities to a resident and non- resident third-party nonbank, consisting
(i) wadiah savings; (ii) unrestricted investment funds, and (iii) other liabilities 10 Relaxation of DD MIR/Sharia DD MIR Bank Indonesia may relax the provisions of the DD MIR/Sharia DD MIR based on credit/financing disbursement and fund accumulation The provisions may be relaxed based on a request from a conventional commercial bank, Sharia bank or Sharia business unit or a recommendation from the Financial Services Authority (OJK) Conventional commercial banks, Sharia banks or Sharia business units that receive the relaxed policy are exempt from sanctions
64
Pri rincipl iples
Mac acropr prudential dential Li Liqu quidi idity ty Buffer er (MLB) LB)
Regu gula lation ion MLB (Con
entiona ional Commercial ial Bank nk) MLB Sharia aria (Sha haria ria Bank nks)
1 Rate 4% of rupiah deposits (including Sharia Business Units deposits) 4% of rupiah deposits 2 Components Securities denominated in rupiah held by a conventional commercial bank that may be used for monetary operations (including SBI/SDBI/SBN); and Sharia-complaint securities denominated in rupiah held by an Sharia business unit that may be used for sharia-compliant monetary operations (including SBIS/SBSN) Sharia-complaint securities denominated in rupiah held by an Sharia bank that may be used for sharia-compliant monetary operations (including SBIS/SBSN) 3 Calculation Formula Percentage of rupiah securities held by a conventional commercial bank to rupiah deposits Percentage of sharia-compliant rupiah securities held by an Sharia bank to rupiah deposits 4 Flexibility Under certain conditions, the securities used to meet the MLB may be used for repo transactions to Bank Indonesia for
market
totalling no more than 2% of rupiah deposits Under certain conditions, the securities used to meet the sharia MLB may be used for repo transactions to Bank Indonesia for open market
deposits 5 Sources
Data
Deposits Monthly Commercial Bank Reports Rupiah deposits to calculate MLB are the average daily total deposits at all branches in Indonesia Rupiah deposits include: (i) demand deposits, (ii) savings deposits; (iii) term deposits, and (iv) other liabilities Monthly Sharia Bank Reports Rupiah deposits to calculate sharia MLB are the average daily total deposits at all branches in Indonesia Rupiah deposits include: (i) wadiah savings; (ii) unrestricted investment funds, and (iii)
liabilities
65
Relaxing ing the Loan-to to-Value lue (LTV) and Financi ncing-to to-Val alue ue (FTV) Ratios
The LTV/FTV TV relaxa axati tion
is conducte ducted while taking into to accoun count aspect pects
pruden dential al and consumer mer protect
needs through housing loan, specifically by adjusting the LTV ratio for property loan and the FTV ratio for property financing for the 1st facility, 2nd facility, etc., making the largest LTV ratio for property credit and FTV ratio for property financing as shown in the table below.
“-“= The LTV rate depends on each bank’s risk management
mechanism to a maximum of 5 facilities without taking account of the orders
loan/financing disbursement of indent property:
Source: Bank Indonesia
66
Prudent ntial ial aspect cts
Relaxin xing the Loan-to to-Value alue (LTV) V) and Financi ncing ng-to to-Value alue (FTV) V) Ratios
1. The requirements
the LTV ratio for property credit and FTV ratio for property financing are as follows: i. The net ratio
NPL to total credit
NPF to total financing must not exceed 5%; and ii. The gross ratio
property NPL to total property credit
property NPF to total financing must not exceed 5%. 2. Banks must make sure that there is no loan transfer to another borrower at the same bank
different bank for tenors
less than 1
requirements are valid for banks that will disburse pre-order property loan/financing. 3. Banks are required to comply with prudential principles when disbursing loans. 4. Gradual loan liquidation is
allowed for developers that comply with bank’s risk management policy (e.g.the business feasibility
the developer). 5. Banks are required to ensure that transactions to disburse loans (including down payment) and gradual liquidation must be processed through the debitor and developer/seller’s bank account.
LTV / FTV Exemptio ions ns
Central government
government loan / financing programs are exempt from this regulation.
Relaxing ing the Loan-to to-Value lue (LTV) and Financi ncing-to to-Val alue ue (FTV) Ratios
Source: Bank Indonesia
67
Pri rincip iples les
Domes estic tic Non Del eliv iver erable able Forw rwar ard (DND NDF) F) Tran ansac actio tion
Purpos poses
1. To support the effort
stabilizing the Rupiah exchange rate through the additional
alternative hedging instruments 2. To support the development and deepening
the domestic financial market 3. To increase the confidence
exporters, importers, and investors in conducting economic and investment activities through the flexibility
hedging transactions against Rupiah currency risk
General Provis vision ions
Domestic ic Non-Deliv liverable le Forwar ard Tran ansaction action (DND NDF Tran ansaction) action)
Plain vanilla derivatif transaction
foreign exchange against rupiah in the form
forward transaction with fixing mechanism in the domestic market
Forwar ard Tran ansactio tions ns
Forward Transactions are sell/purchase foreign currencies againts rupiah whereas the delivery
funds shall be performed in more than 2 days after the transaction date
Fixing ing Mecha hanis nism
Transaction settlement mechanism without full movement
funds by calculating the difference between rate
the transaction date and reference rate in JISDOR
a specified future time agreed in the contract (fixing date)
Other her Def efin inition itions
The definition
derivative transaction
foreign exchange againts rupiah, Forward Transaction, Spot Transaction, Customers, Foreign Party is referring to Bank Indonesia regulations regarding foreign exchange transaction againts rupiah
Source: Bank Indonesia
68
Pri rincip iples les
Dome mestic stic Non Del eliv iver erable able Forw rwar ard (DND NDF) F) Tran ansac actio tion
Bank can perform rm DNDF Trans nsact actio ions ns as follows:
Bank – Customer Bank – Foreign Party
Bank – Bank
Tran ansaction action betwe tween en:
Can
be performed to hedge rupiah exchange rate risk.
have Under erly lyin ing Tran ansa sact ctio ions:
Inclu ludin ing all l fol
lowin ing g activit tivities ies : a. Trade of goods and services b. Investments, loans, capital, and other investements. c. Banks credit or financing in foreign currencies (specifically for transactions between bank and customers) Exclu ludin ding g fol
lowin ing g activit tivities ies: a. Bank Indonesia certificates; b. Placement of funds with bank; c. Unwithdrawn credit facilities; d. Documents of foreign currencies sales againts rupiah; e. Money transfer by fund transfer companies f. Intercompany loan g. Money changer activities.
2. Nominal
DNDF Transactions ≤ Nominal
Underlying Transactions 3. Tenor of DNDF Transactions ≤ Tenor of Underlying Transactions
Source: Bank Indonesia
69
Pri rincip iples les
Dome mestic stic Non Del eliv iver erable able Forw rwar ard (DND NDF) F) Tran ansac actio tion
Trans nsacti action Settlement nt
Fixing mechanism
rate: JISDOR for USD/IDR and BI FX Transaction MidRate for non-USD/IDR
currency : IDR
and early termination are not allowed Roll
er and early rly termina
nation
DNDF NDF is prohib hibited ited However, unwind can be done by
the reverse DNDF transactions
Cover Hedging ing
Bank may conduct DNDF Transactions with Bank Overseas for cover hedging purpose.
Transactions: DNDF Transaction between Bank and Customer/Foreign
Hedging Cus usto tomer er / / Foreig eign Party rty
Bank Overseas seas Bank
Hedging
Notes: Customer A conduct DNDF transactions with Bank B, and so Bank B can conduct DNDF transactions with
Bank for the purpose
cover hedge.
Cover Hedging
Source: Bank Indonesia
70
Overnight rnight Index Swap aps (OIS IS) & I Inter eres est Rate Swap aps (IRS) S)
Source: Bank Indonesia
As hedg dging ing instrum rument nts against ainst Rupiah iah inte tere rest t rate te chang nges es
IR IRS is a contract between two parties to periodically exchange rupiah interest rate flows during the contract period or at the completion of the contract based on certain notional amount. IRS pricing is based on JIBOR. OI OIS is an interest rate swap agreement based
Encourage price transparancy in the rupiah money market Strengthen monetary policy transmission Provide alternative hedging instruments against rupiah interest rate changes Support securities market deepening in Indonesia
1 2 3 4
IndoNIA & JIBOR OIS transaction with IndoNIA as benchmark rate Alignment between JIBOR and OIS interest rate Improvement of IRS transaction liquidity
Strengthening reference rate based on real transactions
71
OIS an and IRS Tran ansactio actions: ns: Gener neral al Provisio ions ns
Source: Bank Indonesia
Market Pl Playe
and non-bank institutions, and also foreign parties. Transa sact ctio ion Ne Needs Analysis
IRS or OIS transaction with a customer and/or foreign party on behalf of the customer and/or foreign party is required to have an analysis on the need of rupiah interest rate derivative transactions. Market Co Conventi
transactions, the respective bank is bound by market conventions agreed upon by market players through industry association including the Indonesian Foreign Exchange Market Committee. Sett ttlement ment. Settlement can be performed as a netting payment and every transaction has to be settled in Rupiah. Clo Close se-out nett tting can be applied under predetermined conditions.
Market Conventions
Calcu cula latio ion Base ACT/36 360 IndONI NIA Index ex with 5 5 decimal als Compound Floatin ing Rates (CFR) based
5 decimal als Inter erest st Payment based
Nett ttin ing Notio ional al
Net inter erest st payment in in IDR with decimal als Settle lemen ent Date = 1 busin iness ess days after er Maturit ity Date (MD) OIS Quotatio ion rates es based
2 decimals Quotatio ion : 1W, 2W, 1M, 2M, 3M, 4M, 5M, 6M At the 1st phase, OIS settle lemen ment will
be done at the end
the OIS tenor (MD+1bd). ).
72
Ban ank Ind ndonesia
Policy icy Mix: 201 015 – 201 017
property loans (Sept)
surveillance & Crisis Management Protocol (April)
(Nov)
(FinTech) Office (Nov)
domestic transaction (March)
(GNNT)
time of distress (capital reversal) or large mis-alignment
25bps to 4.50% (Aug)
cut of 25 bps to 4.25% (Sept)
100bps to 6.5% (Feb)
7.5% (Nov)
month) to BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate (Aug) 1. 1. Monetary y Polic icy Polic icy Rate Reser erve e Requir ireme ement 2. 2. Excha hange ge Rate Polic icy 3. 3. Macropr pruden entia tial Polic icy
property and automotive loans (June)
Averaging (Aug): RR fixed 5%; RR Averaging 1.5%
macroprudential regulation
Ratio (FFR) 4. 4. Payme ment System em Polic icy
(June)
management underway 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017
Source: Bank Indonesia
73
3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00
Stab able le Monetary tary Environment ment Despite spite Chal alleng lenges es
Rupia iah Exc xchang nge Rate Rema main ins Compar parable ble to Peers Well ll Mainta ntain ined Inflatio lation Ensur ured Price ce Stability bility Streng ngth thene ned Monet netary Polic icy Frame mewo work Pick ck Up in Credit Growth th
BI 7Day RR Rate: 6.00
(%)
LF Rate: 7.00 LF Rate: 6.75 75 BI Rate: 6.50 DF Rate: 5.25
19 August 2016 16
The New Monetary Operation ion Framewo work Source: Bank Indonesia
YTD 2018 vs 201 017
3.16 2.94 4.48 2.74
3 8 13 18 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (%) CPI (%, yoy) Core (%, yoy) Volatile Food (%, yoy) Administered (%, yoy)
12.7 .7 13.8 .8 11.8 .8 11.7 .7 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 2015 2016 2017 2018 %,yo yoy Total Growth Working Capital Loans Investment Loans Consumption Loans
1.82 5.13 2.55 7.05 3.05
2.69 4.78
1.39
0.0 5.0 10.0 JPY THB SGD MYR KRW PHP CNY EUR IDR INR BRL ZAR TRY
point-to-point average
%
Data as of November 14th, 2018
74
5 Meas asur ures es to Control
Inflatio tion
On January ary 22nd
nd,
2018 the National nal Infla latio tion Contr trol Coordin inatio tion Center has agreed ed
five strateg egic ic measures es to contr ntrol infla latio ion in 201 2018 within in the target et corr rrid idor
3.5±1%, while le also setting ng the infla latio tion targets ets at 3.5±1% 1% for 2019 and 3±1% % for 2020 and 2021.
Source: Bank Indonesia
1 2 3 4 5
Dampening ning the second nd-round und effect
aminis ister tered ed pric ice adjus usmen ents ts Main intai tainin ning volatile tile food
(VF) infla lation tion at 4-5% Stren ength gthening ing quality ity contr trol
governm ernmen ent polic icies ies. Stren ength gthening ning coordin inatio tion betwee een centr tral and regio ional al governm ernments nts as well as Bank Indones nesia ia Stren ength gthening ning the Bank Indones nesia ia polic icy mix to mainta tain in macroec econo nomic ic stabilit lity
1. Ensuring food production 2. Strengthening the government’s food stock 3. Improving production management through corporate/cooperative farming 4. Improving rice miling yield & rice quality 5. Distributing subsidised rice for low- income households & non cash food assistance in time 6. Developing an accurate database on rice production 7. Synergizing between farmers & downstream industries
75
4 Strategies gies to Ac Achi hieve ve the Infl flation tion Target
Achieving inflation at 3,5%±1%
core inflation
volatile food stability at 4-5%
administered price inflation
2018-20 2019 Target et
Stabilizing the price
rdabilit ability Achieving inflation at 3,0%±1%
core inflation
volatile food inflation less than 4%
administered price inflation
20 2020 20-20 2021 Target et
Managing demand side Strengthening production, Government food reserves and food export-import management
y Availa lability bility
Strengthening institution Encouraging trade cooperation between regions
tribu ibution ion
Improving trade infrastructure Improving data quality
tive Communi nication ion
Strengthening central-regional coordination
Source: Bank Indonesia
4 Strateg egies ies
76
Improving ving the Effect ectivene iveness ss
Moneta tary ry Polic icy Tran ansm smissio ission
Bank k Indo dones esia ia has instit tituted ted a Refor
latio ion of Moneta etary ry Policy licy Opera ratio tions Fra ramew ework k whic ich h consis ists ts of 3 pill llars; ; (1 (1) imple plement ntatio tion n of BI 7da day Rever erse e Repo po Rate; e; (2 (2) implem plemen entatio tation of reser erve e requir irem emen ent t aver eragin ging; g; and (3) ) contin inue e to implem plemen ent t money ey marke rket t deepen penin ing g prog
Enhancement
monetary policy signal Enhancement
banking liquidity management Implem emen enta tatio tion
BI 7 Day Revers erse Repo Rate Implem emen enta tatio tion
Reserve Requir iremen ent (RR) Averaging ing Reformula rmulatio ion
Mon
tary Pol
icy Operatio iona nal Framewo work rk Enhancement
instruments and transactions Implem emen enta tatio tion
Money ney Mark rket et Deepen ening ing Progr gram am
Source: Bank Indonesia
77
Enhan anceme cement nt
Monetary tary Oper eratio tions ns Fram amew ework
minutes.
minutes.
CURR RREN ENT JIBOR BOR (as per June 1st, 2016) PREVIOUS IOUS JIBOR BOR
Source: Bank Indonesia
78
Finan ancial cial Inter ermedia mediatio tion Perf rform rman ance ce Remains ains Positive tive
Bankin king g inter ermedia ediatio tion is expec ected ed to grow
estic tic capit pital l marke rkets ts, capit pital l rais isin ing g by cor
poratio tions (partic rticula larly ly cor
porate te bond d issuance) e) remain ins rela latively tively stro rong. g.
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
Financ ncin ing distrib tribute uted by multif tifin inanc nce compan panies continu tinues to improve ve (6.0 .06% yoy as of Sep ep-18 18) Gross premi mium um reve venu nues in the dome mestic tic insur uranc nce indust ustry are also continu tinuousl usly growing wing Capita ital l raisin ing by corpor poratio tions ns decr creases due ue to the increasing ng marke ket t volatili tility ty in 2018, but the issua uanc nce of corpor porate te bond nds is still ill relativ latively ly strong ng The growth th of bank k lend nding ng continu tinues to impr prove (12.6 .69% % yoy as
18)
5120 12.69% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 IDR tn % yoy Bank Loans YoY Growth (rhs) 14.04 25.61 98.16 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Sept 2018 IDR tn IPO equity Rights Issue Corporate Bonds & Sukuk 435.72 6.06% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 350 375 400 425 450 yoy IDR tn Financing Growth (rhs) 320 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Sep18 IDR Tn
79
Finan ancial cial Institutio titutions ns Remain ain Robust
CAR of the e banking g secto tor rema mains at a high h level
pt-18, CAR & Tier Tier-1 Capit ital was 23.03% & 21.29%, respec pectiv tively Risk-based ed capita tal (RBC) C) of the insurance e industr try also rema mains high gh, well above the mi minimu mum m thres esho hold (120%) %) Gearin ing g ratio of mu multifi finance comp mpanies es is 3.03 time mes, provid idin ing g amp mple room f m for future e growth Profita itabil ility ty of the e banking g secto tor is relativ tivel ely stable
Dom
estic tic financial instit titutio tions exhib hibit it a gener erall lly robust t condition
pital l adeq equacy is main inta tain ined ed well ll abov
e the minim imum requir irem emen ents ts. . Prof
itability ility and d lever erage ge are re main intain tained ed at a suffic icien ient t level vel. .
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 23.03 21.29 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 % CAR Tier 1 5.14 2.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 % Net Interest Margin Return on Assets 430% 315% 200% 230% 260% 290% 320% 350% 350% 400% 450% 500% 550% 3.03 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
80
124.75 188.58 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 %
Adequa quate te Li Liquidit uidity; ; Man anag ageable eable Cred edit it Risks ks
Ba Banks ks are re equippe ipped with th suffic icien ient li liquid id assets
Insurance in industry try als lso demonstr trates tes an an en enha hanced ed level level of
inves estme tment ade dequacy rati tio. The non-per perfor
ing loa
tio is is main inta tain ined belo low the thre resho hold.
The ratio of liquid id assets s to deposits sits in the banking g secto tor is ma manageable As of Sept-18, the e gross & net NPL L ratios of the banking g secto tor were e 2.66% & 1.17% respec pectiv tivel ely, ma maintained ed below the e thres eshol hold NPF ratio of the mu multifi finance industr try is 3.17% as of Sept-18, well below the 5% thres esho hold Inves estm tmen ent t adequacy ratio in the insurance e industr try y is ma maintained ed above 100%
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
*The spike in this ratio was due a change in calculation methods.
*
103.54 21.72 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 % % Liquid Assets to Non-Core Deposits (lhs) Liquid Assets to Deposit (rhs) 1.17 2.66 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 % NPL Net NPL Gross 3.17% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
81
Man anag ageable eable Mar arket et Risks
Amids idst the the in incre reasin ing marke rket vo volatilit tility, the the risk pr profile ile of
inancial in instit titution tions re remain ins manage geable
Net open
positi ition
the bankin king sect ector
is main intain tained ed at at a lo low level, level, while hile th the in inves vestme tment value of
domes estic tic in instit tituti tion
vesto tors rs (mutual funds ds, in insure rers rs, and pen pension ion funds ds) is is still ll rela latively tively stable le. Net open n positio ition n in the bankin king secto ctor is kept pt far below low the maxi ximu mum m limit it (20%) %) The inve vestme tment nt value lue of insur urers and pension nsion fund nds is relativ latively ly stabl ble amids idst t market volatility tility Multif tifinanc inance companies’ exposures to foreign debt have generally been mitig igate ated throug
ing measur ures Despite market fluctuations, mutual funds’ net asset value (NAV) still ll exh xhibi ibits ts positiv itive performa manc nce
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 1.68 1 2 3 4 5 % 1043 254.4 200 225 250 275 300 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 IDR Tn IDR Tn Insurance Pension Funds (rhs) 5,000 5,200 5,400 5,600 5,800 6,000 6,200 6,400 6,600 6,800 260 290 320 350 380 410 440 470 500 530 IDR Tn NAV Mutual Funds IDX (rhs) 181 101 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 IDR tn Domestic Debt Foreign Debt
82
12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 15,500 5 6 7 8 9 10 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Yield (%) 5-yr Yield 10-yr Yield 20-yr Yield IDR (rhs)
Cap apital ital Mar arket ets Perf rform rman ance ce Star arts ts to Improve ve
The globa
l econom
ial l markets kets gener erated ed som
e pres essures es on the domes estic tic capit pital l marke rkets ts. . Howev ever er, recen ently tly the vola latil tility ity has decre reased ed and the markets kets are re back k to a stren engtheni gthening g trend. d.
Source: Bloomberg, IBPA, Indonesia Stock Exchange, Ministry of Finance
Both th the equi uity ty and debt bt marke ket t indic ices demo monst nstrate te an improve veme ment nt Nonresid ident nt inflow lows in the dome mestic tic capit pital l marke ket t has incr creased, in gove vernm nment nt debt bt marke ket t and equi uity ty marke ket as well ll The year ar-to to-date correction of the Indonesia’s equity index is relatively moderate derate compar ared ed to some e othe her emergin rging g market ets Governm nment nt bond nd yields tend nds to decr crease
*as data 21 November 2018
Stock ck Index ex Perfo formance ce 21 Novem ember er 2018 18 vs 29 Desem embe ber 2017 17
14.22 11.77
3 7 11 15 TURK BRAZ RUS AS EURO JPN MAL CHIN PHIL SIN HKN INDO KOREA THAI WORLD
%
20 40 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 IDR Tn Gov't Debt Securities Equity 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 180 200 220 240 260 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Comp Bond Index Comp Stock Index (rhs)
83
Strate tegic gic Policies cies in Finan ancial cial Secto ctor
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
Supporting rting infrast struc ructur ture financi ncing ng and deepeni ning ng the capital ital mark market
Enhan hancin ing variab riabil ilit ity
finan inancing ing instr trum umen ents ts
bonds, green bonds, municipal bonds
products for mortgage
Simpl plif ific ication ion
issuan uance proces
in the capita tal mark rket et
issuance process
debt securities and sukuk for professional investors
Expand nding ing the investo estor base
the access
domestic retail investors to the capital market
the participation
local financial institutions through the establishment
local securities companies
Stren engt gthen enin ing the role
NBFIs Is in infrastructu ructure develop lopment nt
products by credit guarantee companies & insurers
Supporting rting inno nova vation tions in digital ital financ nance
Issuing the guiding principles for the providers
digital financial services, including for registering, licensing, and the crowdfunding scheme Directing financial institutions to synergize with the fintech sector
establish a fintech business line Promoting the role
fintech lending in supporting government programs, including in
retail sales
government debt securities
84
Strate tegic gic Policies cies in Finan ancial cial Secto ctor
Enhan Enhancing financ nancial ial liter terac acy & inc inclus lusio ion
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK), June 2017
OJK OJK has as als lso built uilt a str trong foun
for
fina inancial inclu inclusio ion pr prog
to to en ensure access ess to to fin financial produ
& & serv ervic ices es by In Indo donesia ians
all social al clas asses. . Suc uch init initia iatives also lso in include the the en enhancement
fina inancial lite teracy and nd fina inancial con
prot
Developing financial education models utilizing various delivery channels Enhancing the role
the “Investment Alert Taskforce” The he resu esult lt
OJK’s 201 016 natio tiona nal survey rvey dem emonstrated an impr provement in fina nancia ial lite teracy & & inclusion ion amon
Ind ndon
ians compa pared to tha hat
201 013, but ther here is sti till ll room
for furth ther er impr provement.
Financ ncial l Lite teracy Financ ncial l Inclu lusion
21.8% 29.7%
2013 2016
59.7% 67.8%
2013 2016
Developing micro-credit products with additional business support (“KUR Klaster”) Promoting the establishment
Islamic microfinance institutions (“Bank Wakaf Mikro”) Strengthening the role
Financial Access Acceleration Taskforce (TPAKD) in local areas
85
A A Compr preh ehens ensive ive Finan ancial cial Dee eepen pening ing Program am …strateg
tegy to tackle challenges in deepening Indonesia’s financial markets
Source: Bank Indonesia
In Apr-2016 2016, the Minis ister ter of Finance, e, the Gov
ernor r of Bank k Indo dones esia ia, and d the Chair irman of the Board d of Com
issio ioner ers of
ial l Serv rvic ices es Author thority ity launched hed a Coo
dinatio ion For
velopm pmen ent t Financin ing g thro rough gh Financia ial l Marke rket t (FK-PP PPPK). PK). The he thre ree autho thoriti ities es have ve agr greed eed to for
late e “The Natio tional l Stra rategy tegy of Financia ial l Marke rket t Devel velopm pmen ent”
Vision: To Establish Deep, Liquid, Efficient, Inclusive, and Safe Financial Market
ECONOMIC FUNDING & RISK MANAGEMENT MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT POLICY COORDINATION, HARMONIZATION & EDUCATION Benchmark Rate & Standardization Instrument Fund Regulatory Framework Market Infrastructure Intermediaries Coordination & Education
Mission: Financial Market as Sources of National Development Financing
1 2 3
Money Market FX Market Bond Market Stock Market Syariah Market Structure Product Market
3 Pilars 6 Markets 7 Elements
Financial Market Ecosystem
TARGET KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATOR STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN
86
Contin tinuou
Program am
Cap apital ital Mar arket et Dee eepen pening ing
…continuously strengthened, including through capital market deepening initiative ives
Stren engt gthen enin ing mark rket infras astructu ructure
Single Investor Identification (SID) coverage
electronic trading platform (ETP) in the debt market
Integrated Investment Management System (S-INVEST)
the clearing and settlement process
capital market data warehouse
Extensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) for issuers
Enhan hancin ing the supply ly-side ide
public-offering requirements and procedures
debt market
mutual fund industry
products, including those to support infrastructure development (private equity funds, REITs, ABS)
Islamic capital market
municipal bonds
Enhan hancin ing the deman and-side ide Stren engt gthen enin ing govern rnance nce
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK)
the role
the domestic institutional investors (insurers & pension funds) in capital markets
the domestic investor base (conducting investor education programs)
distribution channels
market products
87
BI’s Roles in Supporting Distribution
Non-Cash Cash Socia ial As Assis istan tance ce (NC NCSA) A)
BI supports ports govern rnment nt’s progr gram am
iftin ting social ial assist istan ance to tar arget eted ed non cash social cial assis ista tance ce disburs rsement throug
the electr ctronic ic payment syst stem
the futur ure, electr ectron
ic mechan hanism ism disb sburs rsem ement nt will be also applied ied to LPG subsidy. idy. NCSA Prog
Family ly Hope Progr
(Progr gram am Keluar arga ga Harapan an
KH) Smart rt Indones esia ia Progr gram am (Progr gram am Indones nesia ia Pintar tar-PIP IP) Non Cash Food Assistanc nce (Bantua uan Pangan Non Tunai – BPNT)
2016-2020
Pilot
Project
Grad adual Implem lemen entatio tion
Inter erconnecte cted & inter eroper erable le payment system em
LPG Subsid idy
Full Implem lemen entatio tion
XXYYZZ 12345678
9876543210
Source: Bank Indonesia
88
Progr
ss
NCSA Progr
ams
Famil ily Hope Program am (Program am Keluar uarga ga Harapa apan
H) Non Cash Food Assis ista tanc nce (Bantu ntuan an Pangan gan Non Tunai nai - BPNT)
Family Hope Program (PKH) is a program that provides cash to very poor households. Rp 1,89 million /year will be granted for each
will be granted every February, May, August, and November.
December 2017, PKH has been distributed to 6,0 million households on non- cash basis.
514 regencies/cities in 2018.
is a poverty alleviation and social protection program that is managed by the central government. It provides subsidized rice and eggs to low-income households. Rp 110 thousand/month will be granted for each household as BPNT that can be used in certain stores which called e-warong.
1,2 million households in 44 cities.
is expanded to 10 million households in 217 regencies/cities on the 25th of each month in 2018.
Source: Bank Indonesia
89
Strong nger er Fundam amen entals tals Fac acing ng the he Headw adwind inds
82.4 .4 12.1 .1 6.8 1998 2008 Sep-15 30 30 3.8 2.8 1998 2008 Aug-15 17.4 .4 50.2 .2 1998 2008 Sep-15
Inflation lation Rate te (%) %) IDR Move veme ment nt (%) Non-Perfor
ming Loan/NPL PL (% (%) Governm nment nt Debt bt/G /GDP Foreig ign n Reserve ves (USD bn)
100.0% 1998 27.4% 2008 30.5% Q3 - 201 2018 8.6x 1998 3.1x 2008 3.1x Q3 - 201 2018 116.8% 1998 33.2% 2008 34.5% Q3 - 201 018
More Liqui uid Marke ket (%) %) Exte ternal l Debt t (Publi blic & Priva vate te) to FX Reserve ve Ratio io Exte ternal l Debt/G t/GDP
Inflation controll lled ed within the target et range IDR depr precia ciated ed year-to to-da date e in November 201 2018 NPL lev evel el (gross) s) is below the maximum thres eshold ld of 5% Consisten ently ly well-maintained ned Significa cantly ly higher er than 1998 98 & 2008, 08, ample to cover er 6.2 2 months of import and external al debt repay payment Significa cantly ly lower er than 1998 98 crisi sis Sligh ghtly ly high gher er than 2008, 08, but significa cantly ly lower er than 1998 98 Oct ‘18 115.2 5.2
Oct ‘18
3.16 6 (yoy)
September ‘18 2.7 .7 62 62 10.5 .5 5.7 1998 2008 Jul-15
Over ernigh ght interbank nk money market rate is rela latively ly lower er
Sept 2018
5.39 39 (ytd)
25
35
197 14-Nov-18 2008 1998
90
Outlo look
Domestic stic Economy Remain ains Robust st
...d ...domes mestic ic econo nomic ic growt wth is predict icted to be highe her in 201 2018
201 2018 Econo nomic ic Outlo tlook
Economic growth in 2018 is projected in the 5.0-5.4% range, on sound investment and consumption performance, strong
building and non-building investment, backed by infrastructure development and investment in the manufacturing industry.
Inflation is predicted to remain within the target range for 2018, namely 3.5±1%, with the current account deficit is expected
to remain under control and within a safe threshold that is not exceed 3.0% of GDP in line with domestic economic improvements.
Credit growth is predicted to grow in the 10.0 -12.0% range, in line with the domestic economy ganing momentum dan
Econom nomic ic Growth Infl flation ion CAD AD (% (% of
Credit it Growth
2017 17 Realization alization 5. 5.07 07% 3.61% 1.7% 8.2 .2% %
Source : Bank Indonesia
2018 18 5.0–5. 5.4 % 3.5±1% <3.0% .0% 10 10.0 .0-12 12.0% .0%
92
IIGF has the potential to provide project guarantee for non-PPP projects
The he Governm rnment ent has as Enac acte ted Var arious us Reform rms to Accel eler erate te Infrast astru ructur cture Provisio ion
Fiscal al Reform
Instit titut utio iona nal Reform
Regu gula latory
Reform
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Viability ility Gap p Fundin ding (VGF) KPPIP IP Dire rect ct Lendin ing Increase project financial feasibility by contributing up to 49% of the construction cost (MoF Reg. No. 223/2012) Availa ilability ility Paymen ent Land d Revo volv lvin ing g Fund Issuance of regulatory framework to allow annuity payment by the Government during concession period to concessionaire since project operation based on infrastructure service availability (MoF Reg. No. 190/2015 for Central Gov’r and MoHA Reg. No. 96/2016 for Regional Gov’t.) A revolving-fund sourced from State Budget, to accelerate land acquisition (MoF Reg. No. 220/2010) KPPIP is actively involved in accelerating delivery of priority infrastructure projects
rana Multi lti Infra rastr truktu ktur Merging between PT. SMI and Gov’t Investment Center (PIP) to become an infrastructure funding company Indones nesia ia Infras. . Guara rantee tee Fund d (IIGF IGF) PPP Unit Provide facilities to help GCA on preparing PPP project (PDF/TA) BLU LMAN The State Asset Management Agency (BLU LMAN) is mandated to provide land fund for National Strategic Projects to ensure timely land acquisition process Allow guarantee for direct lending to SOE to accelerate financial close process for infrastructure projects (Presidential Reg. No. 82/2015) Land nd Acquis isiti ition Stipulate land acquisition acceleration based on Law No. 2/2012 (Presidential Reg.
payment for impacted community (Presidential Reg. No.56/2017) Econo
kages ges Conduct deregulation for issues hindering infrastructure delivery and develop a task force under CMEA to ensure the effectiveness of economic packages implementation Risk-sha harin ing g Guidel elin ines es IIGF has issued risk allocation and mitigation guidelines for PPP project Tax x Incen entives tives (Tax x Holida liday) MoF Reg. No.35/2018 allowed 100% Tax Holiday for 17 Pioneering Industries for 5 – 20 years depending on the investment value Indo dones esia ia Infrastru tructu ture re Guarantee tee Fund d (IIGF IGF) IIGF has the potential to provide project guarantee for non-PPP projects
93
Some
Most Recent ent Reform rms
Policy cy reform rms are aiming ng to create te a more conducive ucive invest stmen ment clima mate for infras astruc ructur ure delive very ry
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Pres esid iden ential tial
Use
Foreign ign Labor – released
March 2018
This regulation aims at simpl plif ifying ng the permi mit t applic licatio tion n proce cess for foreig ign n worke kers, hence making the process more efficient and faster, in order to rise foreign direct investment in Indonesia
Pres esid iden ential tial
Socia ial Impact Handlin ling in Land Acquis isit itio ion Proces ess for PSN – released
June 2017
This Presidential Reg. allows the Exe xecu cuting ting Agenc ncy to pay land nd acqui uisitio tion n compe pensatio nsation n to the impacte ted commu muni nity ty who does not have offic icia ial l rights ts over the land nd requi uired for PSN SN. . This regulation helps to solve the land acquisition problem due to community
MoF No. 60/2017
Procedur edures es for the Provis isio ion
Central al Governm ernment ent Guarant antee ee for the Acceler leratio tion
the Natio iona nal Strategic ic Proje
ts Implementa ntatio ion – released
May 2017
The supporting regulation for Presidential Reg. No. 3/2016 on the Acceleration of the National Strategic Projects Implementation. This is regula ulatio tion n regula ulate tes the scope pe and gene neral l requi uireme ments nts and proce cedur ures to propose and grant nt guarante ntees, as well ll as allocate te state te budget t oblig ligatio tion n on gove vernm nment nt guarante ntees to all l PSN.
trust of investors to participate in the implementation of PSN.
Governm ernmen ent
Natio ional al Spatia ial Plan (RTRWN) WN) – released
April 2017
The issuance of RTRWN can resolve spatial planning mismatch in the implementation of infrastructure projects listed in the annex of Government Reg. No. 13/2017. A number of breakthroughs were developed, and one of them is that the Mini niste ter of Agraria ian n and Spatia tial l can issue a reco comm mmend ndatio tion n of spatia tial l utiliz lizatio tion; n; so that t the proce cess of obtain ining ng project ct permi missio ion n can be done ne.
MoF No. 21/2017
Procedur edures es for Land Acquis isitio ition for Natio iona nal Strateg egic ic Projects ts and Asset Manag agem ement ent
Land Acquis isitio ition by State Asset Manag agem ement ent Agency – released
February 2017
The implementing regulation of Presidential Reg. No. 102/2016 on Financing of Land Acquisition for the Development of Public Interest in the Framework of the National Strategic Implementation. This regulation becomes the legal basis for the financing of the procurement of National Strategic and Priority Projects by BLU LMAN.
94
Reforms Along the Project’s Life Cycle
...to enco cour urag age and accele lerate te infras astruc ructur ure project ct using ng PPP scheme me Governm rnment nt
Indone nesia sia
Project
Dev evelop lopme ment Facility lity (PDF) PDF) Viab abil ilit ity Fundin ding Gap (VGF) F) Guar uarant ntee Fund Tax Facilities lities Availa ailabil ilit ity Payme ment Land nd Acquis uisition ition Preparation Bidding Process Construction
Project development facility contributing to assist GCA on PPP project preparation (PDF&TA) Managing entity: KPPIP, PT SMI PT IIF, and Ministry of Finance A facility with contribution to construction cost to increase project financial viability Managing Entitiy: Ministry of Finance based
proposal Gov’t. commitment: 49% max. Per project cost
Guaranteeing Govt. contractual
under infrastructure concession agreements and Mof Regulation No 130/PMK. 08/2016 re: Govt guarantee for electricity project acceleration Managing entity: IIGF and MoF Govt’s comitment: US$ 450 mn
MoF Reg. No. 159/PMK. 010/2015 re: tax holiday for pioneer sector, such as base metal, oil refinery, basic petrochemical, machinery, renewable energy, & telco equipment
will be further expanded Managing entitiy: Ministry of Finance A scheme in which concessionaires receive sum of money periodically from central or regional government after the completion of an asset. MoF Regulation, and MoHA Regulation on Availability Payment has been ratified. Managing entity: Ministry of Finance & Ministry of Home Affairs A facility to support land acquisition for infrastructure projects particularly projects that involve private sector Managing enitiy: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Agrarian and Land Spatial/BPN and BLU-LMAN Gov’t. commitment: US$ 12 mn (2016) Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
95
Effort rts to Accel eler erate te Infras astru tructu cture Provisio sion
Regu gula latio ion improveme ement to to accel elerate land procu curemen ment proce cess ss
about the land acquisition duration for the Government Contracting Agencies and the Investors. The Law sets an estimated 583 days maximum time to complete the land acquisition process.
Regulation No. 71 of 2012 on Land Acquisition Implementation for Developing Public Facilities, which has been revised into the Presidential Regulation No. 30
funding for a land acquisition which can be reimbursed by the Government following the completion of land acquisition process. With this Regulation, the land acquisition process is expected not to be delayed by the unallocated budget or the delay on the budget disbursement.
Land Procurem rement t Proces ess s as Stipula lated ted in Law No. 2 of 2012
Law No
was succes essfull lly applied plied in in: 1. 1. Pa Pale lembang – In Indr dralaya sect ection ion of
the Tr Trans Sumater era Toll ll Roa
2. 2. Java va Nor
th Line Dou
le Track Rail il Project
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
96
Effort rts to Accel eler erate te Infras astru tructu cture Provisio sion
…the establishment
Indone nesia ia Asset Manag agemen ment Agency ncy (LMAN) AN)
Source: Ministry of Finance
Governm rnment nt has establi blished shed State Asset Manag agemen ment Unit (LMA MAN) N) as a solution to accele lerate te the land acquisi uisitio ion throug ugh the provisi sion
land acquis uisit itio ion fund
1. Unutilized fund can be allocated for the following year 2. Non-project-specific land acquisition fund
allocated fund can flexibly be made available for the other project 3. Land acquisition fund for PSN projects is managed under
agency
was established in December 2015 through the issuance
MoF Reg. 219/2015 concerning State Assets Management
2016, BLU LMAN was mandated to provide land acquisition fund as a support to Ministry
Public Works due to US$ 1,081 Mio shortage
fund to acquire land for priority toll roads
scope
support is broaden for all National Strategic Projects through the issuance
MoF Reg. 21/2017 concerning land acquisition financing guideline for PSN
January 2018, LMAN has disbursed up to US$ 881.48 Million (IDR 11.9 Trillion) through bridging finance scheme for 27 toll road projects, and planned to start the implementation
direct payment scheme
Land Acqui uisiti tion
Budget eting ng Scheme me LMAN at a Glance ce This LMAN initiative ive provides ides better flexibi bili lity ty, coordina inatio ion and manag agement nt
land acquis uisit itio ion fund provisi sion for National nal Strategic ic Project cts (PSN)
97
New ew Fundam ament ental al Regu gula latio tions ns Hav ave Been een Initi tiate ted in 2017
to accele lerate te infras astruc ructur ture project cts delivery ry
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Governm ernmen ent
Natio ional al Spatia ial Plan (RTRWN) WN) The issuance
RTRWN can resolve spatial planning mismatch in the implementation
infrastructure projects listed in the annex
Government
number
breakthroughs were developed, and
them is that the Minister
and Spatial can issue a recommendation
spatial utilization; so that the process
project permission can be done.
MoF No. 60/2017
Procedur edures es for the Provis isio ion
Central al Governm ernment ent Guarant antee ee for the Acceler leratio tion
the National nal Strate tegic gic Proje jects Implem emen enta tatio tion The supporting regulation for Presidential
the Acceleration
the National Strategic Projects Implementation. This regulation regulates the scope and general requirements and procedures to propose and grant guarantees, as well as allocate state budget
government guarantees to all
guarantee provision is expected to increase the feasibility and trust
investors to participate in the implementation
PSN.
Pres esid iden ential tial
Socia ial Impact Handlin ling in Land Acquis isit itio ion Proces ess for PSN This Presidential
the Executing Agency to pay land acquisition compensation to the impacted community who does not have
rights
the land required for
regulation helps to solve the land acquisition problem due to community
the land use.
MoF No. 21/2017
Procedur edures es for Land Acquis isitio ition for Natio iona nal Strateg egic ic Projects ts and Asset Manag agem ement nt
Land Acquis isitio ition by State Asset Manag agem ement ent Agency The implementing regulation
Presidential
Financing
Land Acquisition for the Development
Public Interest in the Framework
the National Strategic
regulation becomes the legal basis for the financing
procurement
National Strategic and Priority Projects by BLU LMAN
98
Under Presidentia idential Reg.
56/2 /201 018, , PSN list has as been en revise sed into 223 23 Proje jects cts an and 3 Program ams
projects
26 26
Projects53 53
Projects18 18
Projects12 12
ProjectsSulawesi esi
US$22.8 B
Kalima imantan tan
US$35.6 B
Suma matra
US$40.4 B
Maluku & Papu pua
US$34.4 B
89 89 3
Programs
ProjectsNatio ional
Projects
1 2
Projects
Java
US$73.8 B US$99.7 B
13 13
Bali i & Nusa a Tenggar ara US$0 $0.7 7 B
Exchange rate: US$ 1 = IDR 13,500
Road 69 Projects Dams 51 Projects SEZs & IEs 29 Projects Railway 16 Projects Energy 11 Projects Ports 10 Projects Clean Water & Sanitation 8 Projects Airports 7 Projects Irigation 6 Projects Smelter 6 Projects Electricity 1 Program Technology 4 Projects Housing 3 Projects Fisheries/Farming 1 Projects Sea Dike 1 Projects Education 1 Projects Economic Equality 1 Program Aeroplane Industry 1 Program
Proje ject Progr gram am
PSN includes udes 15 s sectors rs at project ct level and 3 sectors rs at program am level
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Projects99
PSN may ay receive ive pri rivil vileg eges es as stipula pulated ted in the Presid sident entia ial Reg. . No.
2016 j.o j.o. . the Presid sidential ential Reg. . No.
/2017
01 01 02 03
Determination of National Strategic Projects
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 10 11 12
Permit & Non- permit Completion Spatial Planning Land clearing acceleration Local Content Utilization Government Guarantee Provision Projects Monitoring via KPPIP IT System SOE’s Assignment Problems and Hindrance Completion Accelerate Goods and Service Procurement Settlement of Legal Issues Acceleration of Non- State Budget Projects
Additional Facilities Existing Facilities Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
100
Progres ess
223 23 Projects ts an and 3 Program ams PSN
Prog
ess of Nationa ional l Strat rateg egic ic Project
ams (per er Septe tember er 2018 18)2 The Estimated timated Inves estme tment nt Value ue for 223 Projec ects ts + 3 Programs ams PSN1
1Exclude 7 projects which investment value are still unknownExchange rate : US$ 1 = IDR 13,500
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
2) Excluding the economic equality program that will be reported separatelyState Budget 10% SOEs/ RSOEs 31% Private 59%
Tota tal Investm estment nt Value lue2
US$ 307.4 7.4 Billio lion
State Budget US$ 31.7 Bn Bn SOEs/RSOEs US$ 94.3 Bn Bn Private US$ 181.4 Bn Bn
5 S 5 Secto tors rs with Highes est Invest stment nt Value
Energy 11 Projects US$ 89.8 Bn Electr tric icit ity 1 Program US$ 76.7 Bn Roads ads 69 Projects US$ 49.7 Bn Railwa lways ys 16 Projects US$ 29.2 Bn SEZs and IEs 31 Projects US$ 31 Bn
3 projects already completed 23 projects are in construction and will start
51 projects and 1 electricity program are in construction and partial-operation phase 52 projects are in construction and will start
37 projects are in construction and will start
1% 1% 23% 23% 10% 10% 23% 23% 17% 17% 3% 3% 23% 23% 6 projects in transaction 51 projects and 1 Airplane Industry Program in preparation
101
In 2016
mber er 2018, 33 PSNs have been Complet leted ed with Total al Investment estment Value lue
IDR 7.2 .2 Trillio lion
21 Soreang – Pasirkoja Toll Road, West Java (11km) 22 Mojokerto – Surabaya Toll Road, East Java (36,3km) 23 Tanjung Priok Access Road, DKI Jakarta (16,7km) 24 Raden Inten II Airport, Lampung 25 Jangkrik and Jangkrik North East Field Development, East Kalimantan 26 Nanga Badau National Border, West Kalimantan 1 Gempol – Pandaan Toll Road, East Java (14km) 2 Sentani Airport, Jayapura, Papua 3 Juwata Airport, Tarakan, North Kalimantan 4 Fatmawati Soekarno Airport, Bengkulu 5 Mutiara Airport, Palu 6 Matahora Airport, Wakatobi, Southeast Sulawesi 7 Labuan Bajo Airport, Komodo Island, East Nusa Tenggara 8 Soekarno Hatta Airport Development (Including Terminal 3), Banten 9 Kalibaru Port, DKI Jakarta 10 Belawan-Sei Mengkei Gas Pipe (75 mmscfd), North Sumatera 11 Entikong National Border, West Kalimantan 12 Mota’ain National Border, East Nusa Tenggara 13 Motamassin National Border, East Nusa Tenggara 14 Skouw National Border, Jayapura, Papua 15 Paya Seunara Dam, Sabang, Aceh 16 Rajui Dam, Pidie, Aceh 17 Jatigede Dam, Sumedang, West Java 18 Bajulmati Dam, Banyuwangi, East Java 19 Nipah Dam, Madura, East Java 20 Titab Dam,Buleleng, Bali 31 Prabumulih - Kertapati Railway (Part of Trans Sumatera Railway Network 32 Raknamo Dam 33 Tanju Dam 27 Aruk National Border, West Kalimantan 28 Wini National Border, East Nusa Tenggara 29 Teritip Dam, East Kalimantan 30 Umpu Irrigation System (Way Besai), Lampung
2016 2017
Jan
2018
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
102
Progres ess
3 37 Pri riori rity ty Projects cts
From the revise ised Nationa ional Str trate tegic gic Projects
the he Gov
rnment nt has as sele lecte ted a list
37 Priorit iority Projects
to be the focus us
astr tructu ucture prov
ision. n.
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
1. Balikpapan-Samarinda Toll Road 2. Manado-Bitung Toll Road 3. Panimbang-Serang Toll Road 4. 15 Segments of Trans – Sumatera Toll Road 5. Probolinggo – Banyuwangi Toll Road 6. Yogyakarta – Bawean Toll Road 7. SHIA Express Railway 8. MRT Jakarta South-North Line 9. Makassar-Parepare Railway 10. Light Rail Transit (LRT) of Jakarta- Depok-Bogor-Bekasi 11. LRT of South Sumatera 12. East Kalimantan Railway 13. LRT of DKI Jakarta 14. Kuala Tanjung International Hub Seaport 15. Bitung International Hub Seaport 16. Patimban Port 17. Inland Waterways Cikarang-Bekasi-Laut (CBL) 18. Palapa Ring Broadband 19. Batang, Central Java Power Plant (CJPP) 20. Central – West Java Transmission Line 500 kV 21. Indramayu Coal-fired Power Plant 22. Sumatera 500 kV Transmission (4 Provinces) 23. Mulut Tambang Coal-fired Power Plant (6 Provinces) 24. PLTGU (16 Provinces) 25. Bontang Oil Refinery 26. Tuban Oil Refinery 27. RDMP/Revitalization of the Existing Refineries (Balikpapan, Cilacap, Balongan, Dumai, Plaju) 28. Abadi WK Masela Field 29. Unilization Field Has Jambaran-Tiung Biru 30. Indonesian Deepwater Development (IDD) 31. Tangguh LNG Train 3 Development 32. West Semarang Drinking Water Supply System 33. Jakarta Sewerage System 34. National Capital Integrated Coastal Development (NCICD) Phase A 35. Jatiluhur Drinking Water Supply 36. Lampung Drinking Water Supply 37. Waste to Energy Program in 8 cities
103
Progres ess
37 Pri riori rity ty Projects cts
Recen ent t Miles esto tones es Prog
ess of 37 Prio iori rity Project
er Octob tober er 2018) Fundin ding g Schem eme e of 37 Prio iority ity Project
Loan Agreement has been signed on 15 November 2017. On March 2018, pre-qualification stage has resulted 4 shortlisted bidders Allocation of repayment liability on additional-loan for Phase I and Phase II has been decided in the KPPIP Ministerial meeting – 49% will be borne by Central Government and 51% will be borne Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta.
Patimb mban an Port
West Semarang Water Supply ly Sy System:
Mass Rapid Tran ansit sit (MRT) Jakarta South-Nort North
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
51% 51% 39% 39% 10% 10%
US$121.7 billion from Private/ PPP US$45.5 billion from SOE/ Regional SOE US$15.3 billion State/ Regional Budget (including G-to-G loan)
Exchange rate : US$ 1 = IDR 13,500
Total Investment Value US$ 182.5 Billion
West package has been fully operasional since April 2018.
Palapa Ring
Note: This data is still going to be verified by The Executive Office of President (KSP) and Indonesia’s National Government Internal Auditor (BPKP)
Outline Business Case has been done on December 2017.
Yogyakar arta-Bawen Toll Road
8% 8% 11% 11% 28% 28% 20% 20% 11% 11% 22% 22% 4 projects in transaction 8 projects in preparation 4 projects in construction and will start operating in 2018 3 projects in construction and partial operation phase 10 projects in construction and will start operating in 2019 8 projects in construction and will start operating after 2019
104
Energy gy Secto ctor: r: the he Progres ess
35.000 000 MW Program am
No No Phase MW MW % 1 Operating 2,614 7 2 Construction 18,457 52 3 Signed Power-purchase Agreement 11,117 32 4 Procurement 2,153 6 5 Planning 958 3 17 Dec ‘14
Cabinet t Meeting ing “There’s electricity crisis in Indonesia, requires construction
Jan ‘15
Aver erage ge economi mic growth th of 6.7% % requir ires s 7,000 MW / year or 35,000 MW / 5 years (Kepmen ESDM No. 0074/2015 on RUPTL 2015-2024)
Jan ‘15
Debottl tlen enec eckin ing g through gh regulatio tion:
supply cooperation & joint utilization of the electrical network among license holders.
No.3/2015, concerning Procedures
Purchasing Electrical Power and benchmark prices for Electrical Power through the Direct Selection & Appointment.
16 Mar ‘15 4 May ‘15 June‘17
Cabinet t Meeting ing Progress of 35,000 MW Launchi hing g 35.000 MW by the President in Goa Beach Sanden DIY The progres ess so far:
Sulawesi si PLN: 2,000 MW Private: 1,470 MW Transmission: 5,275 ckt.km Substation: 4,390 MVA Maluku PLN: 260 MW Private: 12 MW Transmission: 653 ckt.km Substation: 620 MVA Papua PLN : 220 MW Private: 0 MW Transmission: 364 ckt.km Substation: 460 MVA Kalima imanta tan PLN: 900 MW Private: 1,735 MW Transmission: 5,604 ckt.km Substation: 3,500 MVA Nusa Tenggara ra PLN: 670 MW Private: 0 MW Transmission: 2,347 ckt.km Substation: 1,410 MVA Sumate tera PLN: 1,100 MW Private: 8,990 MW Transmission: 18,729 ckt.km Substation: 35,521 MVA Jawa & Bali PLN: 5,000 MW Private: 13,697 MW Transmission: 9,185 ckt.km Substation: 66,265 MVA
35,000 MW Prog
tributio tion
Source: PLN
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
Note : Progress of 35,000 MW Electricity Program as of September 2018
105
Accel eler eratio tion
35.00 000 MW Program am
Gov
ernm nmen ent PT PLN
EPC C Power erpla plant t and d Transmis issio ion PLN Subsidia idiary (Joint
ture) e) Indepen ependen ent Power er Prod
er
Stren ength gthen Equity ty 2B 2B 1
Gov
ernmen ent t Supp ppor
t (outs tside ide Guara rantee) tee)
Local l Con
tent t Obligation on the usage of local content through an open book system, price guideline, reverse engineering or other methods to maximise the local content.
2A 2A
Assign ignmen ent SJKU* U* Minis istry try of Finance
Stren ength gthen PLN‘s Balanc nce Sheet
*)SJKU=Surat Jaminan Kelayakan Usaha/ Business Viability Guarantee Letter The Gov
ernmen ent t has issued ed Pres esiden identia tial l Regu gula latio ion No.
tric icity ity Infrastru tructu ture e Accel eler eratio tion to accel eler erate te power er proj roject ects Prov
isio ion of Electri tricity ity Refin inancin ing Hedgin ging Financia ial l Asset et Optim imiz izatio ion Direct Lending Direct Lending Bond issuance by PT PLN Company Tax Holiday PT PLN’s divident allocation Loan from independent lenders Asset Revaluation Other types
Equity Injection by the Government
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
106
Sign gnificant ificant Progres ess
I Infras astr tructu ucture Projects cts
Database Project information such as map, track, existing study and latest project status. An integrate ted IT system with monitoring capacity for stakeholders, so that they can have real time data ta. Platform rm data
that is efficient and functional using a user-friendly framework. Record decisions related to projects and synchronize ize the implementation schedule that can be utilized by stakeholders.
KPPIP developed an integrated IT System for monitoring
national strategic and priority projects, providing database on projects’ latest status which can be effectively utilized for monitoring and decision-making purposes. Impr prov
ing g Monitor itorin ing g System tem on Infrastru tructu ture e Project
Roads
Trans-Sumatr tra Toll Road Merah h Putih ih Bridge idge, Ambon
Dams
Jatige igede de Dam (Operatio tional)
Transpo portatio tion
Jakarta rta MRT Project2
Drinki nking ng Wate ter Proce cessin ing
Umbulan Drinkin king Water Provi visio sion System, East t Java
1 Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP) 2 Not funded from National Budget
Terminal 3 Ultima imate te Soeka karno-Hatta tta2 New Tanjung Priok k Port t Project2 Nop Go Golia iat t Dekai, i, Papua
107
Infras astr tructur cture Projects ts an and Finan ancing cing Sche hemes mes
Promoti tion
Infras astruc ructur ture Develo lopmen ment to Acce celerate te Econo nomic mic Growth th
Esta tabli blishment shment of PPP PPP Unit
Broad ad Objective Champion project preparation and acceleration of the PPP agenda in Indonesia Core Mandates Improve quality of project selection under KPPIP – OBC criteria Support project preparation through PDF support and highly qualified transaction advisors Act on behalf the Minister of Finance in providing government support and approvals for projects Addit itio ional al Man andates Coordinate all public finance instruments Provide input for PPP Policy program Development and Regulations Implement capacity building for Govt. Contracting Agency (GCAs) One stop shop for PPP promotion & Information
Budget get Public Priv ivate te Partn tner ershi ship SOE E & Priv ivate te Sec ecto tor
Central & regio ional budget (special allocatio ion fun und & rur ural tran ansfer) Primarily to to support bas asic ic infrastruct ucture projects: – Food secur urity: Irrigation, dams etc. – Mar aritime: Seaports, shipyards etc. – Connectivi vity: y: Village roads, public transportation etc. Certain in infrastruct ucture projects to be funded and operat ated throug ugh a par artnership ip between the Indonesian an government and the priva vate sector – Projects ready for auction under the PPP Scheme: – Toll roads projects such as Balikpapan-Samarinda and Manado-Bitung – Railway projects such as an express line into Soekarno-Hatta International Airport – Water supply projects such as the West Semarang Project Var ario ious government sup upport for PPP: PPP: – Project Development Facilit ity y (PDF): Helps Government Contracting Agencies (GCAs) in project preparation and transaction – Viab iabil ility y Gap ap Fund: improves financial viability of PPP projects – Government Gua uaran antees: Supports PPP projects’ bankability by providing sovereign guarantees – Infrastruct ucture Fin inan ancing Fund: Provided through PT SMI and IIGF – Avai ailab ability Payment (AP): GCA pays private partner based of availability
Government to to inject capital al into SOEs: Intended multiplier effect to develop more infrastructure projects Key focus us ar areas: as: – Infrastructure and maritime development – Transportation and connectivity – Food security Mediu ium term infrastruct ucture deve velopments to focus us on: – Water Supply – Airports – Seaports – Electricity and power plants – Housing – Mining
Source : Ministry of Finance; Bappenas; KPPIP: “Komite Kebijakan Percepatan Penyediaan Infrastruktur” or National Committee for the Acceleration of Infrastructure Delivery Note: OBC: Outline Business Case; PDF: Project Development Facility; GCA: Government Contracting Activity
Infras astructur ure Development in order to: 1. Accelerate growth particularly in rural areas 2. Support industrial development and tourism 3. Reduce unemployment and poverty Infras astructur ure fundraisin aising needs: $357.9 bn bn (or equivalent to IDR4,796.2 tn) 245 Natio ional Strategy y Projects under National Medium Term Plan for 2015 – 2019 with an estimated total cost of IDR 4,197 tn (USD 313 bn) 37 prio iorit ity infrastruct uctur ure projects with an estimated cost of IDR 2,490 tn (USD 180 billion) Majority of 37 priority projects are expected to commence commercial operation by 2018 - 2022
Infrast structure e Devel elopme pment t is a Key Priority ity
108
Gover ernment ment Guar aran antee tee For Bas asic ic Infras astr tructu ucture Devel velopment pment
Reflect cts strong ng commit itment nt to national nal developmen ment plannin ning
Source: Ministry of Finance No. Central al Government Guar aran antee for Infrast astruc ucture Programs Exposur ure/ Outstanding (USD D bn bn) 1 Coal Power Plant 10,000 MW Fast Track Program (FTP 1) 2.49 2 Clean Water Supply Program 0.01 3 Direct Lending from International Financial Institution to SOEs 0.56 4 Sumatra Toll Road 0.48 5 Renewable energy, Coals & Gas Power Plant 10,000 MW (FTP 2) 1.59 6 Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) 1.42 7 Regional Infrastructure Financing 0.09 8 Light Rail Transit (LRT) Jakarta Bogor Depok Bekasi
al 6. 6.63 63
Conting tingent nt Liabili bilitie ties from m Governm nment nt Guarante ntees Go Governme nment nt Guarantee tee Program
Credit it Guarantee ee PPP PPP Guarantee ee
Busin iness Viab abil ilit ity y Guar aran antee (BVG) VG) Power (Electric icit ity) – Full credit guarantee for PLN’s debt payment obligation under FTP 1 10,000 MW and 35GW Celan an Water – Guarantee for 70% of PDAM’s debt principal payment obligations Infras astructur ure - Full credit guarantee on SOE’s borrowing from international financial institution & guarantee for PT SMI’s local infrastructure financing Toll road ad – Full credit guarantee for PT Hutama Karya’s debt payment obligation (Sumatra Toll Road Development) Public ic Tran ansportat ation (Light Rail Tran ansit it) – Full credit guarantee for PT Kereta Api Indonesia’s debt payment obligations for the development of LRT Jabodebek Power (Electric icit ity) – Guarantee for PT PLN’s
with IPPs (off-take and political risk) under FTP-2 10.000MW and 35GW programs* Infras astructur ure – Guarantee for Government-related entities obligations (line ministries, local governments, SOEs, local SOEs) under PPP contracts/agreements From 2008 to Q1-2018, the Government has issued 75 guarantee documents with total value of USD28.84 billion, 5 of which (worth USD0.05 billion) have expired. The Maximum Guarantee Limit for the period 2018 – 2021 is set at 6% of GDP. The space for guarantee issuance for the period 2018-2021 is approximately IDR 1,200 trillion (cumulative). As of end of March 2018; currency conversion of IDR 13,756/USD1 (March 29, 2018)
Politi tical Risk Guarantee ee
Infras astructur ure – Guarantee against infrastructure risks for National Strategic Projects (Presidential Decree No.58/2017) which are not covered by
*) MOF provides both credit guarantees and BVGs for 35GW program
109
Gover ernment ment Finan ancia cial Fac acilities ilities for PPP Proje jects cts
Financ ncial ial Facilit ilities ies to Attrac act More Priv ivate te Part rtic icip ipatio tion
Those financial facilities were instrumental in supporting the execution of PPP projects, indicated by the signing of financial close
Viability ility Gap Fund (VGF) Proje ject Develo lopment ent Facilit ility (PDF) Governm ernmen ent Guarante ntees es (dir irec ectly ly by MoF or through gh IIGF) Financ ncing ing from PT
and
Availabilit lability Paymen ent Schemes es More Fundin ing Schemes es are
the Pipelines lines
Project Financing funded by the priv ivate te secto tor through the granting of concessions for an
Government/SOE (based on the policy of the Government) to the private sector to be
Project Financing funded by any source of funds other than Government’s budget, e.g. long term management funds (insurance, repatriated funds from tax amnesty, pension funds, etc.), private equity investors and infrastructure funds. Supported & facilitated by National Development Planning Ministry/Bappenas.
several years
Sche heme me Character teristic istics Sche heme me Character teristic istics
LCS (Limited ited Concessio ion Scheme) e) PINA (Non-Gov Governm ernment nt Budget et Infras astr truc uctur ure Financ ncing) ing)
Source: Ministry of Finance
110
Progress ess
P PPP Infrast astru ructur cture Proje jects ts
No No Projec ect Name me Projec ect Cost (IDR R tn tn) Financia ial Facil ilities ities Status 1 Central Java Power Plant 40 Guarantee (MoF & IIGF) FC on June 6th, 2016; Construction 30%; COD Target: May 2020 2 Palapa Ring – West Package 1.28 PDF, IIGF Guarantee & AP FC on August 11th, 2016; COD target: February 2018 3 Palapa Ring – Central Package 1.38 PDF, IIGF Guarantee & AP FC on September 29th, 2016; COD target: March 2018 4 Palapa Ring – East Package 5.13 PDF, IIGF Guarantee & AP FC on March 29th, 2017; COD target: September 2018 5 Umbulan Water 2.1 PDF, VGF & IIGF Guarantee FC on August 30th, 2016; COD target: July 2019
Succes essful ful Proje jects ts Reaching ing Finan ancial ial Close in 2016 and 2017
No No Projec ect Name me Projec ect Cost (IDR R tn tn) Financia ial Facil ilities ities Status 1 Batang–Semarang Toll Road 11 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on April 27th, 2016 2 Manado–Bitung Toll Road 5.1 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on June 8th, 2016 3 Samarinda–Balikpapan Toll Road 9.9 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on June 8th, 2016 4 Pandaan–Malang Toll Road 5.9 IIGF Guarantee PPP & guarantee contracts signed on June 8th, 2016 5 Serpong–Balaraja Toll Road 6.0
6 Jakarta–Cikampek Elevated Toll Road 14.8 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts both signed on December 5th, 2016 and February 22nd, 2017 7 Krian–Legundi-Krian Toll Road 9.0 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts both signed on December 5th, 2016 and February 22nd, 2017 8 Serang–Panimbang Toll Road 5.3 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts signed on February 22nd, 2017 9 Cileunyi–Sumedang-Dawuan Toll Road 8.2 Co guarantee (MoF & IIGF) PPP & guarantee contracts signed on February 22nd, 2017
Signed PPP PP Proje
in 2016 and 2017
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of July 2017
111
New Guar aran antee tee Sche hemes mes for Non-PPP PP Projects cts
The Government had issued Pres esid identi ential al Re Regula ulatio tion No No 82 82/2015 and Minis inistr try of
inanc nce Re Regula gulatio tion No No 189/2015 to provide guarantee for SOE Direct Lending from IFIs for the Development of Infrastructure Projects. Guarant antee ee
SOE Direc ect Lending ing from Interna rnatio tional nal Financ ancial ial Institut tutio ions ns (IFIs Is) Guarant antee ee for Regio ional al Infrastr tructur ture Financ ncin ing Provis isio ion State finan ance soundnes ness Fiscal al sustainabiliy nabiliy Best practic tice
fiscal al risk managem ement ent The
this guarantee is to provid ide credit edit enhanc ncem emen ent in terms
low inter erest rate and long tenor finan ancing ing, with 3 main prin incip iples les:
The Government had issued Min inis istry try
Fin inance Regu egulati tion
No No 174 174 of
2016 to provide guarantee to PT SMI
the assignment
regional infrastructure financing provision, by loan to local governments that is transferred from PIP to PT SMI, and new loan channeled by PT SMI to the local government. Based
Gove Govern rnme ment Regu egulation ation No No. 95 95/2015 2015 and Min inis istry try
Fin inance Reg egulation tion No No. 232 232/2015 2015, Minister of Finance assigns PT SMI (Sarana Multi Infrastruktur) to carry
local government, as previously carried
by PIP (Government Investment Center). The objective is to give give sti timulus to to the the accel eleration ion
lo local in infrastr tructure re dev devel elop
ent through the ease of access to infrastructure financing and to boost local economic growth, as well as to provide alternative financing schemes in
to meet local infrastructure development needs and to reduce reliance
state/local budget.