Vulnera bility of the Asia n Region Asia is famous for its great - - PDF document
R. Ra m esh, R. Purv a ja a nd S. Sriniv a sa lu ANNA UNIVERSITY CHENNAI Vulnera bility of the Asia n Region Asia is famous for its great diversities and also for disparities . Half of the total world population live in Eight disaster
1
Asia is famous for its great diversities and also for disparities . Half of the total world population live in Eight disaster prone countries
China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand
2
safety (time pressures) + in hazard prone areas
lowers resilience
Hail Hail& &Lightning Lightning Avalanches Avalanches Flash Flash floods floods Tornadoes Tornadoes Wildland Wildland fires fires & & haze haze Hot & cold Hot & cold spells spells Heavy Heavy precipitations precipitations ( (rain rain or
snow) ) Droughts Droughts Storm Storm surges surges Storm ( Storm (winds winds) ) River basin River basin flooding flooding Mud Mud & & landslides landslides Ice Ice Storms Storms Tropical cyclones Tropical cyclones Dust Dust storms storms
3
Avalanches and landslides 6% Droughts and famines 9% Earthquakes 8% Extreme Temperatures 5% Floods 37% Forest/scrub fires 5% Windstorms 28% Volcanic eruptions 2%
Africa 21% Americas 20% Asia 42% Europe 14% Oceania 3%
4
High human development 2% Medium human development 32% Low human development 66%
20 40 60 80 100 1 2 3
1- Damage (US$billion) 2- Number affected 3- Number killed
Hydrometeorological disasters Geophysical disasters
5
The coastal areas of the world are very densely populated and center around a large amount of economic activity.
(Source: National Geographic) (Source: NASA)
A satellite view of lights at night displays the dominance of world population along the coastline
which the mainland accounts for 5422 km, Lakshadweep coast extends 132 km and Andaman and Nicobar islands have a coastline of 1962 km
a distance of 20 km from the coast
and social occur along the coastline
always been implemented with an engineering perspective
coast
vulnerabilities need to be addressed
6
Multi-unit dwellings are more common and is constantly expanding
(Source:http:/ / www.globalchange.umic h.edu/ globalchange2/ current/ lectures/ c
(Source: http:/ / desip.igc.org/ populationmaps.html)
Settlement patterns by the coastline Top Ten Largest Cities:
Tokyo, Japan - Coastal Mexico City, Mexico - Inland Mum bai, India - Coastal Sáo Paulo, Brazil - Inland New York City, USA - Coastal Shanghai, China - Coastal Lagos, Nigeria - Coastal Los Angeles, USA - Coastal Calcutta, India - Coastal Buenos Aires, Argentina - Coastal
7
Favorable Climate Economic Opportunities Recreation Transportation Communication
Recreation and Tourism
(Source: http:/ / www.weddings-in- keywest.com/ 2-scuba-divers.jpg)
Coastal states together earn 85% tourist revenues in many countries
8
Trade & Commerce
(Source: http:/ / www.aapa-ports.org/ industryinfo/ gallery.htm)
Oil and Gas Production
(Source: www.rfdbase.com/ login/ index.cfm )
9
(Source:http:/ / webinstituteforteachers.org/ 2000/ teams/ dow neast/ letters/ Cutler.html)
Fisheries & Aquaculture
Aquaculture represents a large source of seafood consumption globally
10
Disasters occur in varied forms
– Some are predictable in advance – Some are annual or seasonal – Some are sudden and unpredictable
Factors leading to a Disaster
– Meteorological, Geological, Ecological or Environmental, Technological… .
11
Avalanches etc
12
Crop pests and diseases
Epidemics, Thunderstorm, Hailstorm Lightning, Tornado, Landslides etc.
Cold Waves
13
Coastal Hazards can be defined as natural hazards that occur within the coastal zone. The following are major coastal hazards
(Courtesy: www.electrofin.com) (Courtesy: http:/ / www.library.yale.ed u/ MapColl/ hyannis.htm) (Courtesy: www.missouri.edu/ ~geosc mbu/ ocean2003.html )
(Courtesy: http:/ / www.mthurrica ne.com/ hurricanes.ht m) (Courtesy:http:/ / www.weatherstock.c
(Courtesy: http:/ / hpccsun.unl.ed u/ nebraska/ Gtrack.ht ml) (Courtesy: NOAA Photo Library)
Hurricanes can take very variable tracks
14
(Courtesy: http:/ / www.sci.muni.cz/ botany/ gallery/ lf109.jpg)
There are two types of floods
Riverine floods are common in low lying, sandy coastal areas, whereas flash floods are more common along rocky coasts
(Courtesy: www.utahweather.org)
Exposure (People/Year) > 100'000 10'000 - 100'000 1'000 - 10'000 100 - 1'000 10 - 100
15
Vietnams’Mekong Delta region, 40 years for Cambodia, 35 years for Laos, and in a century for western Bangladesh and West Bengal, India.
caused significant economic losses
floods which is evident from Nepal, Bhutan, Thailand, Philippines
km/ hr - at least 412 deaths
Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, Maldives - death toll at least 212,000
16
The 2 deadliest disasters of 2006 were both in Asia
Exposure (People/year) > 100'000 10'000 - 100'000 1'000 - 10'000 100 - 1'000 10 - 100
17
regions between 1980-2000
million in Bangladesh
affected 15 million people, killed 9,500 people, destroyed 3 million homes, and left seven million people homeless
2007, Vietnam and Philippines in 2006
Distribution of Hurricanes
(Courtesy: NOAA) (Courtesy: ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu )
tracks, but are limited to the Western Hemisphere
elsewhere in the world.
18
(Black-and-white photographs courtesy of Pacific Studios, Newport, Oregon. Color photographs taken by Parke D. Snavely, Jr. of the USGS.)
1890 1920 1970 1990
Distribution of Coastal Erosion
by another section will accrete sand
19
(Courtesy: FEMA)
Tsunamis can be triggered by earthquakes, volcanoes or landslides
(Courtesy: users.belgacom.net) (Courtesy: National Weather Service)
Monitoring takes place on buoys
(Courtesy: http:/ / www.geophys.washington.edu/ tsunami/ general/ historic/ historic.html)
A map of large tsunamis of recent history that were generated by earthquakes
20 The Natural Hazard – How it Happened
(Source: NOAA)
The tsunami of December 26, 2004 is believed to have been caused by a 9.0-9.3 magnitude earthquake, have a wave height of up to 10 meters, and inundated land up to 2 kilometers from the shoreline in some areas. The Disaster – Where it Happened
(Source: www.reliefweb.int)
The tsunami struck a number of countries and took from 15 minutes to seven hours to reach the different coastlines.
21
22 The Disaster – Human Loss
(Source: CNN; http://edition.cnn.co m/SPECIALS/2004/t sunami.disaster/)
The Disaster – Property Loss
Before and after satellite images of the damage
(Source: NASA Earth Observatory)
23 The Disaster – Economic Loss
(Source:http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2004/tsunami.disaster/)
The impact on coastal fishing communities and fishermen has been devastating with high losses
and fishing gear
24
24 are inhabited
are inhabited
6408 km2 and Nicobar group, 1841 km2
with an annual average rainfall of 3180 mm
evergreen, moist deciduous and littoral forests including mangroves, coral reefs, sea grass and sea weeds
indented by innumerable creeks, bays, inlets, estuaries and lagoons - rich biodiversity and high productivity
Bay of Bay of Bengal Bengal Tro Tropical ical EVER EVERGREE GREEN F FORE REST STS Tro Tropical ical EVER EVERGREE GREEN F FORE REST STS LIME MEST STON ONE CAVE CAVES: S: Stalagtites & Stalagtites & Stalagmites Stalagmites LIME MEST STON ONE CAVE CAVES: S: Stalagtites & Stalagtites & Stalagmites Stalagmites MU MUD V D VOLCAN LCANO MU MUD V D VOLCAN LCANO MA MANGROVE VES MA MANGROVE VES ACTIVE VOLCANO ACTIVE VOLCANO CORAL ATOLLS CORAL ATOLLS Sandy & Rocky BEACHES Sandy & Rocky BEACHES CORAL REEFS CORAL REEFS REEF-Associated FAUNA REEF-Associated FAUNA
25
26
48 9.3 West Sumatra-Andaman Islands 26-Dec 2004 004 13 7.6 Java 02-Jun 1994 30 8.3 Java 19-Aug 1977 15 8.1 Makran 27-Nov 1945 7.7 Andaman Islands 26-Jun 1941 941 7.5 Java 11-Sep 1921 7.6 West Sumatra 04-Jan 1907 35 Sunda Strait (Krakatoa) 27-Aug 1883 1 7.9 Nicobar Islands 31-Dec 1881 881 7 8.3 - 8.5 North Sumatra 16-Feb 1681 7.2 North Sumatra 5-6 Jan 1843 8.7 - 9.2 West Sumatra 24-Nov 1833 7.7 Near Cutch 16 Ju 1819 South Sumatra 18-Mar 1818 8.4 West Sumatra 10-11 Feb 1797 Myanmar 02-Apr 1762 Ma Maxi ximu mum m wave ht wave ht (m) (m) Magn Magnit itud ude Source/ Lo urce/ Location cation Date Date Ye Year ar 48 9.3 West Sumatra-Andaman Islands 26-Dec 2004 004 13 7.6 Java 02-Jun 1994 30 8.3 Java 19-Aug 1977 15 8.1 Makran 27-Nov 1945 7.7 Andaman Islands 26-Jun 1941 941 7.5 Java 11-Sep 1921 7.6 West Sumatra 04-Jan 1907 35 Sunda Strait (Krakatoa) 27-Aug 1883 1 7.9 Nicobar Islands 31-Dec 1881 881 7 8.3 - 8.5 North Sumatra 16-Feb 1681 7.2 North Sumatra 5-6 Jan 1843 8.7 - 9.2 West Sumatra 24-Nov 1833 7.7 Near Cutch 16 Ju 1819 South Sumatra 18-Mar 1818 8.4 West Sumatra 10-11 Feb 1797 Myanmar 02-Apr 1762 Ma Maxi ximu mum m wave ht wave ht (m) (m) Magn Magnit itud ude Source/ Lo urce/ Location cation Date Date Ye Year ar
n
27
64025 1362 10065 6678 NR 45920 Boats damaged 11827 790 NR 506 NR 10245 Cropped Area (hectares) 927 301 187 33 30 Islands 376 Number of villages affected 5 3-5 10 >15 7-10 Average height of tidal wave in meters 0.5-2.0 1-2 0.3-3.0 1.5 – 7.0 1-1.5 Penetration of water into mainland in km 2260 985 250 25 Almost entire 1000 Coastal length affected in km Total Total And Andhra Pra Pradesh esh Kerala Kerala Po Pondi ndiche herry rry A&N A&N Islan Islands Tamil Tamil Na Nadu Details Details
Note: The Tsunamis have caused extensive damage in the Nicobar Islands, which will require more or less rebuilding/ reconstruction NR: Not Recorded
Maxim um Wave Runup Level (m ) in the Andam an and Nicobar Islands during Tsunam i
(adapted from: ICMAM, Chennai)
Maxim um Wave Runup Level (m ) in the Andam an and Nicobar Islands during Tsunam i
(adapted from: ICMAM, Chennai)
28
Receding water Complete Recession Incoming wall of water Intense wave height
wave height (cm) tsunami wave travel time
29
Epicenter: 124 km
Nicobar from Sumatra = 2 to 3 minutes (180 to 240 sec)
km h-1 (open ocean)
considered
– Trenches – Coastal and wetland sediments – Coral reefs
30
Before After
31
32
Average height of tsunami waves (~ 15 m)
33
Destruction of several Fishing Boats, Harbors & Bridges Destruction of several Fishing Boats, Harbors & Bridges
34
Continuous inundation of water into Cities (Port Blair, South Andaman) during high tide: June 2005 Continuous inundation of water into Cities (Port Blair, South Andaman) during high tide: June 2005
35
Land Emergence Submergence & Tilt
Land Emergence Land Submergence
Tilt Tilt Tilt Tilt
36
Little Andaman b) North c) South Sentinel Islands Interview Island Great Nicobar
37
Luxuriant North Reef Coral Islands of North Andaman
a) December 2, 2004 b) February 4, 2005
Uplift of Flat Island along the western coast of Middle Andaman Upthrow of Coral bed and rock starta in the same place
Coral Reef uplift in Flat Island Middle Andaman Coral Reef uplift in Flat Island Middle Andaman
38
Dec 26, 2004
(????)
Termed Coral graveyard
39
MANGROVE FORESTS IN NORTH ANDAMAN
Exposed m angrove roots at high tide in the Kalighat Creek, North Andam an
MANGROVE FORESTS IN NORTH ANDAMAN
Exposed m angrove roots at high tide in the Kalighat Creek, North Andam an Previous High Tide Line Present High Tide Line 1 – 1.25 m
40
Before After
Coral Reefs of Rutland Islands South Andaman Coral Reefs of Rutland Islands South Andaman
Brighter Blue: Healthy Reefs: light penetration high Dull Blue: Reefs submerged and therefore decreased light penetration
41
The lighthouse tower at Indira Point in Great Nicobar Island before the 26 December earthquake. The tower is surrounded by lush green grass, residences are at the base and a sandy beach is in the foreground. b Flooding of the lighthouse base because of land subsidence. The submergence of 3 m was caused by the 26 December earthquake
Highly turbid w aters covering the coral reefs at Red Skin Islands, South Andam an Highly turbid w aters covering the coral reefs at Red Skin Islands, South Andam an
42
Com plete degradation of m angroves due to subm ergence at Sipighat, South Andam an Com plete degradation of m angroves due to subm ergence at Sipighat, South Andam an
Sea w ater inundation in coconut plantations at South Andam an Sea w ater inundation in coconut plantations at South Andam an
43
Uprooted Evergreen Forest Trees at North Cinque Island Uprooted Evergreen Forest Trees at North Cinque Island
44
Port Blair Port Blair Havelock Havelock Island Island North Cinque Island North Cinque Island Red Skin Island Red Skin Island Wrightmyo Wrightmyo
45
Trenches.... Pits.... More pits.... big...
big...
and small...
Sediment Cores ....
7 samples for OSL 11 samples for radiocarbon 5 cores for Pb-210
sieve analysis Cs-137 x-ray fluoresence analyses GIS-based geological map of the Andaman-Islands
46
Red Skin Islands
could NOT be determined
than the activity in the horizon below
sediment below it
‘re- e- de deposit sition
suggests these could be two storm events
These d ese deposit sits are are NO NOT laid laid do down b wn by the the tsunami tsunami
2004
between 1940 and 1950
probably age between 190 and 200 years
cm depth indicate that there must be times of fast fast su subsid bsiden ence ce interrupted by times with no no mo move veme ment nt
AVERAGE RA RATE OF S SUBS BSIDE IDENCE: CE: 1 mm yr 1 mm yr-1
What does the OSL dating of these sediment sections tell us? What does the OSL dating of these sediment sections tell us?
North Cinque Islands
analysis indicates - deposits are definitely older than 60 years
tsunami events
radiocarbon ages indicate - horizon below the dark horizon could be deposited before the year 1530 A.D.
indicate deposit from a high energy event
probably confirms this
homogeneously by a tsunami - an effect called “fining inland”
Radiocarbon dating of these sediment sections
47 Sediment Section from Wright Myo Mangroves, South Andaman
at 20 cm depth
???? ????
48
δ13C) and elemental (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) analysis of coral skeletal material
analysis
Some results for the start...
M a r 2 6 D e c 2 5 May 2005 May 2004 D e c 2 4 D e c 2 3 May 2003 May 2002 May 2001 D e c 2 2 D e c 2 1
50 100 150 200 250 200 400 600 800 1000 M ar 2006 Dec 2005 M ay 2005 Dec 2004
(Unclear banding)
M ay 2004 Dec 2003 Dec 2002 M ay 2003 M ay 2002 May 2001 Dec 2001 Dec 2000
December 2004:- Distinct dark banding is not observed like in other monsoon years Peaks pointing right: Summer season (light penetration more; higher SST) Peaks pointing left: Monsoon season (light penertation less; lower SST)
49
and morphologic record of relative sea-level change
Sumatran subduction zone
changes in coral morphology – limit upward growth of the corals
Annu nual ring al rings – de derive rived fro d from seasonal v seasonal vari riations in ations in coral coral density density – serve as serve as an an internal chronometer internal chronometer of coral growth
sea-level variations on time scales of decades (including El Niño events)
Sumatran subduction zone using living corals as a “coral tide gauge”
cities by 2000; this will rise to 60% by 2025
a population greater than 1,000,000 are at significant risk from an earthquake
accounts for 64% of city growth in Asia
are prone to multi hazard risks and are awaiting a catastrophic event
50
Intensity Frequency Heatwaves Heavy rainfall / Flood Tropical Cyclones Coastal Marine Hazards Strong Wind
Water Resource Water Resource Management Management Health Health Industry Industry Food Food security security Transport Transport Energy Energy Urban areas Urban areas
Hazard Exposure is increasing !
Need for Prevention and Mitigation Hydro-m eteorological Hazards Warning System s:
51
National to local disaster risk reduction plans and legislation
52
Marine Health (etc.)… Geological
Communities at risk warning
National to local governments Hydrological Meteorological NATIONAL SERVICES
post-disaster response Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health (etc.) (coordination)
NATIONAL SERVICES
requirements r e q u i r e m e n t s Community Preparedness warning
National to local governments
supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms warning requirements
warning preventive actions
53
Response Recovery
Mitigation Prevention
Preparedness Monitoring Forecast and early warnings Vulnerability analysis and risk assessment Applications (agriculture, water resources, etc)
54
they are a part of the world around us; the world we live in.
human activity; with people, their property and possessions…
managing human activity
55
56
57
58
59
accuracy of prediction becomes high, only limited lead-time is available which may result in “under under-
warning” and possible chaos
prediction, unnecessary large sector of the coastline have to be placed in full warning phase resulting in “over
warning”
60
Displaying changing trends in motion Rapid changes in intensity specially close to a
populated coastline
Remaining quasi-stationary close to landfall. Displaying erratic tracks such as looping,
sudden acceleration/deceleration, interaction with other systems etc.
61
Interactive binary cyclones Nagapattinam & Chirala cyclones - November, 1977 Cyclone moving parallel to the coast Machlipatnam cyclone - May ,1990
62
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium 4 1 1 1 4 2 4 4 7 8 8 1 6 0 3 4 5 1 0 3 4 9 5
5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0 4 0 0 4 5 0 5 0 0 5 6 -6 5 6 6 -7 5 7 6 -8 5 8 6 -9 5 9 6 -0 5 Geological Hydrom eteorological Billions of USD per decade decade
0 .0 5 2 .6 6 0 .1 7 1 .7 3 0 .3 9 0 .6 5 0 .2 2 0 .2 5 0 .6 7 0 .2 2
0 .5 1 1 .5 2 2 .5 3 5 6 -6 5 6 6 -7 5 7 6 -8 5 8 6 -9 5 9 6 -0 5 Geological Hydrom eteorological Millions of casualties per decade decade
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
63
services
guidelines
64
65
66
9 0 0 Argo floats in operation by m id-20 0 3 By 20 0 5, som e 3 0 0 0 floats are planned
Ensemble Pred. tools
120 h 96 h 72 h 48 h 24 h
Global models Limited Area models Nowcasting tools Global models L.A. m odels EPS, Probabilities Warnings Activities Nowcasting
Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and maintenance of warnings at DWD (From Thomas Shuman –DWD)
67
Improved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are needed to be extended to all countries as a tool for risk communication among policy makers and communities Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use and city planning
Mitigation Defined Hazard
… .a possible source of danger
The American Heritage Dictionary 1985
68 Mitigation Defined Natural Hazard
an extreme natural event that poses a threat to people, their property and possessions… ..
Mitigation Defined Disaster
An occurrence causing widespread destruction and distress
The American Heritage Dictionary 1985
69 Mitigation Defined
The Four Phases of Em ergency Managem ent:
Mitigation Defined 1. Structural and Non-Structural Mitigation
Development
Approaches to Mitigation
70 Mitigation Defined
Types of Mitigation Strategies
Mitigation Defined
Exam ples of Mitigation Activities: