RESULTS FROM REGIONAL SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN THE WESTERN UNITED - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

RESULTS FROM REGIONAL SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES Lewison Lem, Ph.D.

Parsons Brinckerhoff and Center for Climate Strategies for Lincoln Institute of Land Policy April 2008

METRO REGION SCENARIO ANALYSIS: 2020 HORIZON YEAR

LUTRAQ Study

• 6.4%

Regional Livability Footprint

• 4.6%

PSRC Vision 2020

• 3.4%

Envision Utah

• 3.0%

2

Lem DRAFT for Lincoln in Vancouver

STANDARDIZING HORIZON YEAR TO 20 YEARS

31 SCENARIO ANALYSIS PROJECTS MEDIAN RESULT OF -2.32% VMT REDUCTION OFF

BASELINE

ALL WESTERN REGION ANALYSES PRODUCED LARGER

IMPACT THAN MEDIAN

WESTERN STATE ANALYSES INCLUDED: NM, AZ, WA, TX,

CA, OR, UT, CO

RESULTS RANGED FROM MEDIAN TO -17.3% 3

Lem DRAFT for Lincoln in Vancouver

CALIFORNIA STATE ESTIMATES OF -2.6% TO -10.2% ENERGY SAVINGS FROM VMT REDUCTION

VALUES RANGED BY METRO AREAS

Estimates Low High

Los Angeles

• 2.8%
• 12.4%

San Francisco

• 2.1%
• 6.2%

Sacramento

• 1.6%
• 13.7%

Stockton

• 3.1%
• 12.5%

Fresno

• 2.8%
• 9.3%

Smaller regions had similar low estimates and lower high

estimates (-8% to -9%)

4

Lem DRAFT for Lincoln in Vancouver

METRO REGION SCENARIO ANALYSIS: POST-2020 HORIZON YEAR

METRO VISION 2035

• 6.2%

BLUEPRINT

2050

• 31.7%

5

Lem DRAFT for Lincoln in Vancouver