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Jan 06, 2024 150 likes •357 views

Pr e par ing for Br e xit in r ur al Wale s - a c ha lle ng e o f de c isio n-ma king unde r unc e rta inty Ja ne t Dwye r, Pro fe sso r o f Rura l Po lic y a nd Dire c to r o f CCRI , Unive rsity o f Glo uc e ste rshire 13 F e b rua

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Pr e par ing for Br e xit in r ur al Wale s

  • a c ha lle ng e o f de c isio n-ma king unde r unc e rta inty

Ja ne t Dwye r, Pro fe sso r o f Rura l Po lic y a nd Dire c to r o f CCRI , Unive rsity o f Glo uc e ste rshire 13 F e b rua ry 2018

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Pr e par ing for Br e xit in r ur al Wale s

  • T

he study

  • Sta te o f We lsh a g ric ulture a nd rura l a re a s
  • T

he Bre xit pro c e ss – sc o ping future sc e na rio s

  • Co mpa riso n a c ro ss sc e na rio s – c o mmo n po ints, c o ntra sts
  • Po lic y sug g e stio ns

2

Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit in rura l Wa le s

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T he study

  • Ma y - No ve mb e r 2017
  • De sk-b a se d a na lysis + inte rvie ws / me e ting s with WG o ffic ia ls

& the me d sta ke ho lde r wo rking g ro ups

  • Cha sing a mo ving a nd o b sc ure ta rg e t – no thing is c e rta in
  • ‘ Be st g ue sse s’ o n Bre xit pro c e ss a nd de a l ma y still pro ve wro ng
  • Se e king de g re e s o f like liho o d

c o nsiste nt the me s, stra te g ic re spo nse

3

Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit

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State of We lsh agr ic ultur e and r ur al ar e as

Co nte xt

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State of We lsh r ur al ar e as

E c o no mic ally and so c ially

Rural Wale s has stro ng and we ak po ints. K e y se c to rs inc lude

  • pub lic se c to r
  • to urism
  • SME

ma nufa c turing a nd c ra fts

  • F
  • o d b usine sse s

16 ye a rs a g o , in re mo te rura l ma rke t to wns > 60% o f re g iste re d b usine sse s we re a sso c ia te d with fa rming (L UC) IWA (2015) sug g e sts a la c k o f me dium-size d firms in rura l a re a s linke d to po o r infra struc ture & se rvic e s Une mplo yme nt is lo w Rura l po ve rty is a n issue fo r re mo te e lde rly ho use ho lds

E nvir

  • nme ntally

A hig h-q uality rural e nviro nme nt is re c o ve ring slo wly fro m pa st pre ssure s, b ut vulne ra b le to c ha ng e

  • 30% is pro te c te d a re a
  • Ma jo r so urc e o f drinking wa te r to

Wa le s a nd E ng la nd

  • Ne g a tive tre nds in b irds & so me

prio rity ha b ita ts, b ut o the r indic a to rs mo ving in a po sitive dire c tio n

  • E

c o syste m se rvic e s de pe nd upo n se nsitive la nd ma na g e me nt

  • F

lo o d mitig a tio n & ma na g e me nt a n inc re a sing issue o f c o nc e rn

5

Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit

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Rur al var iations

6

Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit

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Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit

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AGRICUL T URE F ar m type s by land ar e a

No te – e xc lude s c o mmo ns a re a

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We lsh F ar ms

Most far ms he avily de pe nde nt upon public suppor t

  • Gra zing live sto c k fa rms de pe nd upo n b o th pilla r 1 a nd pilla r 2 a id
  • Wide ra ng e o f pe rfo rma nc e sta nda rds
  • Sig nific a nt so c ia l, we lfa re a nd he a lth c o nc e rns a mo ng fa rm fa milie s,

pa rtic ula rly in Ca rma rthe nshire , Po wys a nd Gwyne dd

8

Major pr

  • duc ts – tr

ading patte r ns and tr e nds

  • She e pme a t do mina te s pro duc tio n, mo st is e xpo rte d to E

U

  • Mo re b e e f a nd da iry c o nsume d in UK

, ke y impo rts fro m I re la nd

  • Ho rtic ulture a nd po ultry sma ll b ut with g ro wth po te ntia l – de pe nds

upo n input / e ne rg y pric e tre nds

  • T
  • urism / le isure is a n impo rta nt inc o me fo r so me ; o ff-fa rm inc o me

he lps >40% o f fa rm ho use ho lds

  • F
  • re stry sho ws po te ntia l, if fue l pric e s rise

Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit

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Ave r age F ar m Busine ss Inc ome s, Wale s

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Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit

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We lsh food se c tor

  • 70% o f We lsh fo o d a nd drink b usine sse s a re rura l, ma ny a re

ve ry sma ll, pa rtic ula rly in so me c o untie s

  • 4 ma jo r c o mpa nie s c o ve r 90% live sto c k sla ug hte re d in Wa le s,
  • the rs a lo ng the b o rde r in E

ng la nd

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Summa ry

He avy de pe nde nc e o f e nvir

  • nme ntal land manage me nt o n be e f

and she e p far ming, in tur n de pe nde nt o n CAP funds He avy de pe nde nc e o f r ur al e c o no mie s o n public se c to r jo bs

  • the se fe a ture s stro ng e st in No rth, Mid a nd We st Wa le s
  • So uth Wa le s a nd No rth-e a st mo re dive rse , mo re o ptio ns, c lo se r

to pe o ple a nd ma rke ts

Pre se nta tio n title

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Sc e nar ios of c hange

Bre xit o ptio ns

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Ke y points shaping Br e xit impac ts

  • 1. F

utur e tr ading c o nditio ns

  • T

a riffs b e twe e n UK a nd E U : 0% - 40%, e ve n 60%

  • L
  • we r ta riff b a rrie rs with third c o untrie s? (no t fo r 10 ye a rs,

pe rha ps)

  • 2. F

utur e public funding to far ms and r ur al ar e as

  • Sa me , lo we r o r hig he r?
  • Ne w prio ritie s a nd g o a ls a lre a dy sig na lle d
  • 3. Re g ula to ry re g ime & wide r e c o no mic c o nditio ns
  • Stro ng o r we a k?

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Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit

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Sc e na r ios: sta tus quo or sig nific a nt c ha ng e

Sc e na rio numbe r T ra de outc ome for UK- E U tra de Dome stic a g ri- rura l support

  • utc ome
  • utc ome for

UK- othe r tra de Re g ula tory

  • utc ome

1

L ittle c ha ng e fo r 5-10 ye a rs Sig nific a nt re duc tio n No c ha ng e No c ha ng e

2 L ittle c ha ng e for 5- 10 ye a rs Ma inta ine d a t c urre nt le ve ls No c ha ng e No c ha ng e 3 T a riffs, re duc ing tra de both wa ys Sig nific a nt re duc tion Ne w de a ls, c he a pe r imports Re la xing of some sta nda rds 4

T a riffs, re duc ing tra de b o th wa ys Ma inta ine d a t c urre nt le ve ls Ne w de a ls, c he a pe r impo rts Re la xing o f so me sta nda rds

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Common the me s fr

  • m sc e nar

ios

  • L

ike ly de c line in she e p pro duc tio n a fte r a sho rt-te rm ‘ he yda y’ , ne e d to re struc ture & re -o rie nta te

  • F
  • o d c ha in re spo nse will b e ke y: lo ya lty a nd willing ne ss to

inve st in Wa le s + We lsh pro duc t, lo ng e r-te rm pric ing a nd ma rke t g ro wth

  • L

a rg e r o pe ra to rs in the se c to r will a ntic ipa te a nd re spo nd q uic kly to c ha ng e

  • Pub lic se c to r – inc re a sing g a p b e twe e n de ma nd a nd supply

in rura l se rvic e s (e sp. he a lth & so c ia l c a re )

  • Whilst ha rdly visib le in sta tistic s, a g ric ulture re ma ins a ke y drive r
  • f:

– E

c o no mic a nd c o mmunity via b ility in re mo te a re a s

– L

a nd-use : implic a tio ns o f fe we r she e p, le ss g ra zing

  • Oppo rtunitie s fo r ne w la nd use s: fo re stry, ho rtic ulture , vine s,

e ne rg y a nd le isure , ho using ?

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Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit

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Contr asts ac r

  • ss Wale s
  • No rth, mid a nd we st Wa le s like ly to suffe r stro ng e r ne g a tive

e c o no mic , so c ia l a nd e nviro nme nta l impa c ts; in so uth a nd e a st, mo re dive rse impa c ts – g ro wing so c ia l ne e ds in mo re iso la te d se tting s

  • E

nviro nme nta l c ha lle ng e s in b o th dire c tio ns – unde r- ma na g e me nt in no rth, mid a nd we st; po ssib le issue s fro m c o nc e ntra tio n a nd g ro wth in da irying , indo o r live sto c k, e ne rg y in so uth

  • Po sitive o ppo rtunitie s within a g ric ulture , a nd in o the r se c to rs

e .g . fo re stry, a dding va lue – de pe nds upo n susta ina b le de sig n a nd c re a tive e ntre pre ne urship: ne w ide a s, stro ng ne two rks – so me a re a s will b e b e tte r pla c e d tha n o the rs to do this

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Pr ior itie s for F utur e Re silie nc e

Po lic y sug g e stio ns

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Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit

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  • 1. ADAPT

AT ION

Pre pa re We lsh fa rms, la nd ma na g e me nt a nd rura l b usine sse s fo r a ro c ky ride :

Up-skilling, de ve lo ping c o llabo r ative c apac ity, impr

  • ving

e ffic ie nc y, far m and c o mmunity-le ve l c o ping str ate gie s, e nvir

  • nme nt-pr
  • ofing o f c hange s

I nc re a se a g ri-fo o d se c to r a nd c o mmunity re silie nc e thro ug h mo re a c tive lo ng -te rm pa rtne rship b e twe e n We lsh Go ve rnme nt a nd c o mme rc ia l / so c ia l a c to rs in fo o d, pub lic se rvic e s a nd fina nc ia l se c to rs

Mo r e par tne r ship wo r king be twe e n go ve r nme nt and industr y, go ve r nme nt and c o mmunitie s, and ke y se c to r s

Prioritie s – Ada pta tion a nd a ne w F ra me work

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Pre pa ring fo r Bre xit

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Prioritie s – Ada pta tion a nd a ne w F ra me work

  • 2. F

UT URE SUPPORT F RAME WORK

De ve lo p a ne w, b e spo ke a ppro a c h to pub lic suppo rt, to ma inta in a nd e nha nc e na tura l re so urc e s a nd rura l vita lity b y la nd ma na g e rs a nd rura l c o mmunitie s a c ro ss rura l Wa le s, fo r the b e ne fit o f c urre nt a nd future g e ne ra tio ns

A lo ng-te r m, natur al r e so ur c e s and viable landsc ape s sc he me fo r all Wale s A fle xible , lo c ally-tailor e d appr

  • ac h, de ve lo pe d with

far me r s, fo r e ste r s and o the r stake ho lde r s, giving spac e fo r pr ivate funding as we ll as public Cle ar , agr e e d natio nal tar ge ts

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www.wc pp.or g.uk

Ca rdiff Unive rsity, 10/ 12 Muse um Pla c e . Ca rdiff, CF 103BG Prifysg o l Ca e rdydd, 10/ 12 Pla s yr Amg ue ddfa , Ca e rdydd, CF 103BG

T hank you - Diolc h yn fawr iawn

jdwye r@ g lo s.ac .uk