Implic ations of Br e xit for F ishing Oppor tunitie s in Wale s L a nd a nd Se a e ve nt, Ab e rystwyth Unive rsity Griffin Ca rpe nte r 13/ 02/ 2018 @ WCfPP
Conte xt of the r e se ar c h We lsh fishing industry is re la tive ly sma ll e c o no mic a lly & po litic a lly • Bre xit pro vide s a n o ppo rtunity fo r re fo rm a nd fo c use s a tte ntio n • Re se a rc h pa pe r is a pa rtne rship b e twe e n the Ne w E c o no mic s • F o unda tio n & ABPme r F o c use s o n the c a tc hing se c to r • F o c use s o n fishing o ppo rtunitie s • @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 2
Sc ope of the r e se ar c h @ WCfPP @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 3
Ar e as of fishe r ie s polic y @ WCfPP @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 4
Wha t’ s the impa c t o f Bre xit o n We lsh fishe rie s? Br e xit sc e na r ios a nd We lsh fle e t e c onomic pe r for ma nc e @ WCfPP
E xc lusive E c onomic Zone s (E E Zs) @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 6
Ke y Br e xit impac ts Pote ntial Br e xit F ac tor s that dir e c tly affe c t F ac tor s that indir e c tly affe c t c onse que nc e the We lsh fishing industr y the We lsh fishing industr y • • I mpo sitio n o f ta riffs* De pre c ia tio n o f ste rling E nding the four • • I mpo sitio n o f ‘ no n-ta riff Cha ng e s to c o nsume r fr e e doms b a rrie rs’ * spe nding o n fish • Re duc tio ns in E U la b o ur pro duc ts • • Re stric tio ns to the Cha ng e s to inve stme nt e sta b lishme nt o f E U b y fishing c o mpa nie s b usine sse s a nd b usine sse s • • E xte nt o f a nd a c c e ss to Ove rfishing * Change s to the UK UK wa te rs* E xc lusive E c onomic • Zone Quo ta sha re s* • • Ne w o r a me nde d UK E c o syste m impa c ts Re gulator y c hange fishing po lic ie s a nd re g ula tio ns @ WCfPP @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 7
Br e xit sc e nar ios analyse d Sc e nar io Ac c e ss Quota T ar iffs Quota-se tting Sta tus q uo (No Sta tus q uo Sta tus q uo Sta tus q uo Sta tus q uo Bre xit) Zo na l Ha rd Bre xit No ne WT O Unila te ra l a tta c hme nt Ne g o tia te d a s So ft Bre xit Pa rtia l Re ne g o tia tio n E E A third c o untry F ishe rie s F irst Zo na l Ne g o tia te d a s No ne Sta tus q uo Bre xit a tta c hme nt third c o untry F ishe rie s L a st Ne g o tia te d a s Sta tus q uo Sta tus q uo WT O Bre xit third c o untry Zo na l No De a l Bre xit Pa rtia l WT O + de la y Unila te ra l a tta c hme nt @ WCfPP @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 8
T he unique We lsh fishing fle e t Mo st ve sse ls a re sma ll-sc a le • Mo st la nding s a re no n-q uo ta • Mo st la nding s a re e xpo rte d • Mo st q uo ta is la nde d inte rna tio na lly • All sig nific a nt fo r the b a la nc e o f Bre xit risks a nd o ppo rtunitie s @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 9
Impac ts @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 10
Ve sse ls with c hange s to ne t pr ofits @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 11
We lsh por ts, not ne c e ssar ily We lsh landings 12,000 10,608 10,000 a nd e d va lue (£1000) 8,000 E U ve sse ls 6,000 Othe r UK ve sse ls We lsh ve sse ls 3,482 4,000 3,137 2,519 2,024 1,832 L 2,000 1,005 766 679 0 @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 12
Ho w sho uld Wa le s re fo rm its ma na g e me nt o f fishing o ppo rtunitie s po st-Bre xit? Polic y options for fishing oppor tunitie s @ WCfPP
F ishing oppor tunitie s @ WCfPP @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 14
Se tting total fishing limits Co uld de via te fro m ma ximum susta ina b le yie ld fra me wo rk • Mo st a lte rna tive s ha ve lo we r fishing limits • Se ve ra l sto c ks in We lsh wa te rs a re no t a t MSY ye t • @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 15
Division be twe e n c ountr ie s UK wa nts zo na l a tta c hme nt, E U wa nts histo ric a l sha re • Zo na l a tta c hme nt wo uld inc re a se We lsh q uo ta (+170%) • Cle a r prio rity sto c ks fo r a ny ne g o tia tio n • 12% Pla ic e 7fg 10% c e nta g e of UK tota l 8% 6% Me g rim 7 Pla ic e 7hjk Ska te s & Ra ys 67 So le 7fg xd 4% Ang le r 8a b de Ang le r 7 Pe r So le 7a Ha ddo c k 7b k 2% Po lla c k 7 Whiting 7b k Ha ke 67 Pla ic e 7de WS Ne phro ps 0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 @ WCfPP T onne s Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 16
We lsh quota landings E xc lusive L ande d we ight L ande d value of e c onomic zone T onne s of quota by E E Z Value (£) quota by E E Z F ra nc e 0.72 0% 2,700 0% I re la nd 481.86 70% 1,594,547 74% T otal E U 482.58 71% 1,597,247 75% E ng la nd 111.15 16% 347,635 16% Gue rnse y 3.33 0% 12,849 1% I sle o f Ma n 0.06 0% 448 0% No rthe rn I re la nd 0.02 0% 59 0% Sc o tla nd 3.00 0% 25,885 1% Wa le s 66.75 10% 137,569 6% T otal UK 184.31 27% 524,444 24% I nte rna tio na l wa te rs 16.69 2% 19,168 1% @ WCfPP T otal all ar e as 683.59 100% 2,140,859 100% Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 17
Division be twe e n DAs Wa le s la rg e ly e xc lude d fro m UK q uo ta thro ug h F QAs (<1%) • L a rg e r g a ins fro m We lsh wa te rs (he rring , Ne phro ps, white fish) • Co uld a pply to UK ve sse ls in We lsh wa te rs (Ne phro ps) • E xplo re ho w g a ins c o uld b e use d dire c tly a nd indire c tly • Devolved We lsh ve sse ls, We lsh E E Z, othe r Diffe r e nc e administrations othe r UK E E Z UK ve sse ls 3.00 57.40 54.40 Sc otland 111.15 165.24 54.09 E ngland 3.33 0.00 -3.33 Gue r nse y 0.00 0.00 0.00 Je r se y 0.02 1,652.62 1,652.60 Nor the r n Ir e land 0.06 0.00 -0.06 Isle of Man 117.56 1,875.27 1,757.70 T otal Cur r e nt quota landings 683.59 @ WCfPP Pe r c e ntage c hange 257% Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 18
Ove r all manage me nt syste m Ca tc h limits (q uo ta ) is the do mina nt ma na g e me nt re g ime , • tho ug h no t fo r We lsh fishe rie s – E xte nding to ne w spe c ie s is c o ntro ve rsia l (se a b a ss) So me suppo rt fo r a n e ffo rt tria l fo r q uo ta spe c ie s • – Re a l time inc e ntive s the mo st pro mising de ve lo pme nt – Oppo rtunity c o st – Cle a r pe rfo rma nc e me tric s Oppo rtunity to e nha nc e spa tia l ma na g e me nt • – Co nditio na l a c c e ss – E mpo we r sta ke ho lde r g ro ups @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 19
Alloc ation to fle e ts/ ve sse ls Curre nt a llo c a tio n a lso b a se d o n histo ric a l sha re • Oppo rtunity to c ha ng e a llo c a tio n (We lsh c o mpe te nc y) • Crite ria -b a se d a llo c a tio n (‘ b e a uty c o nte st’ ), q uo ta re se rve , • mo re fitting to WF GA tha n q uo ta a uc tio n Pro duc e r o rg a nisa tio ns like ly to c o ntinue ; ne e d fo r inte g ra tio n • o f sma ll-sc a le ve sse ls @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 20
Post- alloc ation polic ie s F le xib ility a ke y tra it to he lp with disc a rd po lic y a nd c lima te • c ha ng e – Quo ta ma rke ts use d e lse whe re b ut o ppo se d in Wa le s – Oppo rtunity fo r no n-fina nc ia l tra nsfe ra b ility: p2p swa ps Se c uring b e ne fits fo r We lsh po rts a nd wide r so c ie ty • – Re fo rming e c o no mic link – L a nding s ta x We lsh Go ve rnme nt c o uld imple me nt the se po lic ie s • imme dia te ly (b ut b e ne fits fro m a wide r b a se ) @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 21
Conc lusions Wa le s ha s a uniq ue fle e t a nd divisio n o f risk/ o ppo rtunity • No t he a rd fro m in Bre xit disc ussio ns a nd me dia c o ve ra g e • UK -Wa le s divisio n a s sig nific a nt a s E U-UK divisio n • E xc iting po lic y de ve lo pme nt po te ntia l to inte g ra te fishe rie s • into wide r ma rine a nd so c ie ta l visio n Cle a r re se a rc h ne e ds • – Zo na l a tta c hme nt (b io lo g y, pric e s, upta ke ) – Pre pa re dne ss fo r sub sta ntia l q uo ta g a ins – I de ntify q uo ta spe c ie s o f g re a te st prio rity – Who le supply c ha in a sse ssme nt @ WCfPP Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 22
www.wc pp.or g.uk @ WCfPP Ca rdiff Unive rsity, 10/ 12 Muse um Pla c e . Ca rdiff, CF 103BG Prifysg o l Ca e rdydd, 10/ 12 Pla s yr Amg ue ddfa , Ca e rdydd, CF 103BG
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