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Implic ations of Br e xit for F ishing Oppor tunitie s in Wale s L a nd a nd Se a e ve nt, Ab e rystwyth Unive rsity Griffin Ca rpe nte r 13/ 02/ 2018 @ WCfPP Conte xt of the r e se ar c h We lsh fishing industry is re la tive ly

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Implic ations of Br e xit for F ishing Oppor tunitie s in Wale s

L a nd a nd Se a e ve nt, Ab e rystwyth Unive rsity

Griffin Ca rpe nte r 13/ 02/ 2018

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Conte xt of the r e se ar c h

  • We lsh fishing industry is re la tive ly sma ll e c o no mic a lly & po litic a lly
  • Bre xit pro vide s a n o ppo rtunity fo r re fo rm a nd fo c use s a tte ntio n
  • Re se a rc h pa pe r is a pa rtne rship b e twe e n the Ne w E

c o no mic s F

  • unda tio n & ABPme r
  • F
  • c use s o n the c a tc hing se c to r
  • F
  • c use s o n fishing o ppo rtunitie s

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Sc ope of the r e se ar c h

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Ar e as of fishe r ie s polic y

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Br e xit sc e na r ios a nd We lsh fle e t e c onomic pe r for ma nc e

Wha t’ s the impa c t o f Bre xit o n We lsh fishe rie s?

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E xc lusive E c onomic Zone s (E E Zs)

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Ke y Br e xit impac ts

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

Pote ntial Br e xit c onse que nc e F ac tor s that dir e c tly affe c t the We lsh fishing industr y F ac tor s that indir e c tly affe c t the We lsh fishing industr y E nding the four fr e e doms

  • I

mpo sitio n o f ta riffs*

  • I

mpo sitio n o f ‘ no n-ta riff b a rrie rs’ *

  • Re duc tio ns in E

U la b o ur

  • Re stric tio ns to the

e sta b lishme nt o f E U b usine sse s

  • De pre c ia tio n o f ste rling
  • Cha ng e s to c o nsume r

spe nding o n fish pro duc ts

  • Cha ng e s to inve stme nt

b y fishing c o mpa nie s a nd b usine sse s

Change s to the UK E xc lusive E c onomic Zone

  • E

xte nt o f a nd a c c e ss to UK wa te rs*

  • Quo ta sha re s*
  • Ove rfishing *

Re gulator y c hange

  • Ne w o r a me nde d UK

fishing po lic ie s a nd re g ula tio ns

  • E

c o syste m impa c ts

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Br e xit sc e nar ios analyse d

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

Sc e nar io Ac c e ss Quota T ar iffs Quota-se tting

Sta tus q uo (No Bre xit) Sta tus q uo Sta tus q uo Sta tus q uo Sta tus q uo Ha rd Bre xit No ne Zo na l a tta c hme nt WT O Unila te ra l So ft Bre xit Pa rtia l Re ne g o tia tio n E E A Ne g o tia te d a s third c o untry F ishe rie s F irst Bre xit No ne Zo na l a tta c hme nt Sta tus q uo Ne g o tia te d a s third c o untry F ishe rie s L a st Bre xit Sta tus q uo Sta tus q uo WT O Ne g o tia te d a s third c o untry No De a l Bre xit Pa rtia l Zo na l a tta c hme nt WT O + de la y Unila te ra l

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T he unique We lsh fishing fle e t

  • Mo st ve sse ls a re sma ll-sc a le
  • Mo st la nding s a re no n-q uo ta
  • Mo st la nding s a re e xpo rte d
  • Mo st q uo ta is la nde d inte rna tio na lly

All sig nific a nt fo r the b a la nc e o f Bre xit risks a nd o ppo rtunitie s

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Impac ts

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Ve sse ls with c hange s to ne t pr

  • fits

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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We lsh por ts, not ne c e ssar ily We lsh landings

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s 10,608 3,482 3,137 2,024 1,832 1,005 766 679 2,519 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 L a nd e d va lue (£1000) E U ve sse ls Othe r UK ve sse ls We lsh ve sse ls

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Polic y options for fishing

  • ppor

tunitie s

Ho w sho uld Wa le s re fo rm its ma na g e me nt

  • f fishing o ppo rtunitie s po st-Bre xit?
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F ishing oppor tunitie s

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Se tting total fishing limits

  • Co uld de via te fro m ma ximum susta ina b le yie ld fra me wo rk
  • Mo st a lte rna tive s ha ve lo we r fishing limits
  • Se ve ra l sto c ks in We lsh wa te rs a re no t a t MSY ye t

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Division be twe e n c ountr ie s

  • UK

wa nts zo na l a tta c hme nt, E U wa nts histo ric a l sha re

  • Zo na l a tta c hme nt wo uld inc re a se We lsh q uo ta (+170%)
  • Cle a r prio rity sto c ks fo r a ny ne g o tia tio n

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

Ang le r 7 Me g rim 7 Ska te s & Ra ys 67 xd Ha ke 67 WS Ne phro ps Po lla c k 7 Whiting 7b k Pla ic e 7de Ang le r 8a b de Ha ddo c k 7b k So le 7fg Pla ic e 7fg Pla ic e 7hjk So le 7a 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 50 100 150 200 250

Pe r c e nta g e of UK tota l T

  • nne s
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We lsh quota landings

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

E xc lusive e c onomic zone T

  • nne s

L ande d we ight

  • f quota by E

E Z Value (£) L ande d value of quota by E E Z

F ra nc e 0.72 0% 2,700 0% I re la nd 481.86 70% 1,594,547 74%

T

  • tal E

U 482.58 71% 1,597,247 75%

E ng la nd 111.15 16% 347,635 16% Gue rnse y 3.33 0% 12,849 1% I sle o f Ma n 0.06 0% 448 0% No rthe rn I re la nd 0.02 0% 59 0% Sc o tla nd 3.00 0% 25,885 1% Wa le s 66.75 10% 137,569 6%

T

  • tal UK

184.31 27% 524,444 24%

I nte rna tio na l wa te rs 16.69 2% 19,168 1%

T

  • tal all ar

e as 683.59 100% 2,140,859 100%

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Division be twe e n DAs

  • Wa le s la rg e ly e xc lude d fro m UK

q uo ta thro ug h F QAs (<1%)

  • L

a rg e r g a ins fro m We lsh wa te rs (he rring , Ne phro ps, white fish)

  • Co uld a pply to UK

ve sse ls in We lsh wa te rs (Ne phro ps)

  • E

xplo re ho w g a ins c o uld b e use d dire c tly a nd indire c tly

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

Devolved administrations

We lsh ve sse ls,

  • the r

UK E E Z We lsh E E Z, othe r UK ve sse ls Diffe r e nc e Sc otland

3.00 57.40 54.40

E ngland

111.15 165.24 54.09

Gue r nse y

3.33 0.00

  • 3.33

Je r se y

0.00 0.00 0.00

Nor the r n Ir e land

0.02 1,652.62 1,652.60

Isle of Man

0.06 0.00

  • 0.06

T

  • tal

117.56 1,875.27 1,757.70

Cur r e nt quota landings

683.59

Pe r c e ntage c hange

257%

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Ove r all manage me nt syste m

  • Ca tc h limits (q uo ta ) is the do mina nt ma na g e me nt re g ime ,

tho ug h no t fo r We lsh fishe rie s

– E

xte nding to ne w spe c ie s is c o ntro ve rsia l (se a b a ss)

  • So me suppo rt fo r a n e ffo rt tria l fo r q uo ta spe c ie s

– Re a l time inc e ntive s the mo st pro mising de ve lo pme nt – Oppo rtunity c o st – Cle a r pe rfo rma nc e me tric s

  • Oppo rtunity to e nha nc e spa tia l ma na g e me nt

– Co nditio na l a c c e ss – E

mpo we r sta ke ho lde r g ro ups

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Alloc ation to fle e ts/ ve sse ls

  • Curre nt a llo c a tio n a lso b a se d o n histo ric a l sha re
  • Oppo rtunity to c ha ng e a llo c a tio n (We lsh c o mpe te nc y)
  • Crite ria -b a se d a llo c a tio n (‘ b e a uty c o nte st’ ), q uo ta re se rve ,

mo re fitting to WF GA tha n q uo ta a uc tio n

  • Pro duc e r o rg a nisa tio ns like ly to c o ntinue ; ne e d fo r inte g ra tio n
  • f sma ll-sc a le ve sse ls

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Post- alloc ation polic ie s

  • F

le xib ility a ke y tra it to he lp with disc a rd po lic y a nd c lima te c ha ng e

– Quo ta ma rke ts use d e lse whe re b ut o ppo se d in Wa le s – Oppo rtunity fo r no n-fina nc ia l tra nsfe ra b ility: p2p swa ps

  • Se c uring b e ne fits fo r We lsh po rts a nd wide r so c ie ty

– Re fo rming e c o no mic link – L

a nding s ta x

  • We lsh Go ve rnme nt c o uld imple me nt the se po lic ie s

imme dia te ly (b ut b e ne fits fro m a wide r b a se )

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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Conc lusions

  • Wa le s ha s a uniq ue fle e t a nd divisio n o f risk/ o ppo rtunity
  • No t he a rd fro m in Bre xit disc ussio ns a nd me dia c o ve ra g e
  • UK
  • Wa le s divisio n a s sig nific a nt a s E

U-UK divisio n

  • E

xc iting po lic y de ve lo pme nt po te ntia l to inte g ra te fishe rie s into wide r ma rine a nd so c ie ta l visio n

  • Cle a r re se a rc h ne e ds

– Zo na l a tta c hme nt (b io lo g y, pric e s, upta ke ) – Pre pa re dne ss fo r sub sta ntia l q uo ta g a ins – I

de ntify q uo ta spe c ie s o f g re a te st prio rity

– Who le supply c ha in a sse ssme nt

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Implic a tio ns o f Bre xit fo r F ishing Oppo rtunitie s in Wa le s

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www.wc pp.or g.uk

Ca rdiff Unive rsity, 10/ 12 Muse um Pla c e . Ca rdiff, CF 103BG Prifysg o l Ca e rdydd, 10/ 12 Pla s yr Amg ue ddfa , Ca e rdydd, CF 103BG