Ongoing Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia Pavel Ya. Groisman - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Ongoing Climatic Changes in Northern Eurasia Pavel Ya. Groisman (pasha.groisman@noaa.gov) NEESPI Project Scientist, UCAR Project Scientist at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina, USA CITES-2009 Young
Pavel Ya. Groisman (pasha.groisman@noaa.gov) NEESPI Project Scientist, UCAR Project Scientist at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina, USA CITES-2009 Young Scientists’ School July 10, 2009, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Scientist, UCAR Project Scientist at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina, USA
(Razuvaev@meteo.ru), Russian Institute for Hydrometeorological information, Obninsk, Russia
(meschers@main.mgo.rssi.ru), Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg, Russia
University, Odessa, Ukraine
Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Center, Asheville, North Carolina, USA
Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia
Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Authors’ team
Regional networks used for these analyses
Stations where soil moisture in the upper 1 meter has been measured systematically since 1970s (Speranskaya 2009)
contemporary warming and associated climatic and environmental changes are among the most pronounced globally during the period of instrumental
as they are reflected in many atmospheric and terrestrial variables of economic, social and ecological interest.
Global (latitudinal zone from 60°S to 90°N) and Northern Eurasia (north of 40° N) surface air temperature anomalies, 1881-2008
(Archive of Lugina et al. 2007 updated).
[Budyko & Vinnikov, 1976 “Global warming”]
Linear trend, 0.97K/128yrs, is statistically significant at the 0.001 level
1990
Cold season temperature gradient [T(0°-30°N) -
T(60°-90°N)]. December through March
Intermediate seasons temperature gradient
[T(0°-30°N) - T(60°-90°N)]. Apr-May and Oct-Nov
Annual anomalies
Data source: Archive of work
2007.
Summer
Increase: 1.5K per 128 years
Surface air temperature anomalies from the 1951- 1975 reference period
Linear trend: 1.65K/128 yrs; R2 = 0.40
0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Years Temperature anomalies, K
During the past twenty years, all anomalies were above 0.5K and eight
0.5 1 1.5 2 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
trend: 0.17℃ /10a (℃ )
Mean annual surface air temperature anomalies area-averaged over China
Trend = 0.2°C /10yr
Mean annual surface air temperature anomalies area-averaged over the Russian Federation since 1939
Russian Federation
Surface air temperature anomalies area-averaged over quasi- homogeneous climatic regions of the Russian Federation
Surface air temperature anomalies area-averaged over quasi- homogeneous climatic regions of the Russian Federation
Differences between mean values of October temperatures for 1990-2006 and the previous 30-year –long period (1960-1989) over Kazakhstan (°C).
1.5 1.0
Differences between mean values of July temperatures for 1990-2006 and the previous 30-year –long period (1960-1989) over Kazakhstan (°C).
125 150 175 200 225 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Growing season duration, days
Russia Kazakhstan
Duration of the growing season area- averaged over Russia and Kazakhstan
During the past 70 years, significant changes by 6 to 11 days (or by 5% to 6%)
dD/dt=1.5 days /decade R2 = 0.10
140 160 180 200
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
During the past 70 years, we observe a significant decrease in energy needed for heating, by 5% and 12% in Russia and Kazakhstan respectively.
4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Russia Kazakhstan
Annual heating degree-days area-averaged
During the past 70 years in the south of European Russia, we observe a significant decrease in energy needed for heating (by 11%). In the north, the decrease (by 7% per 40 years) became apparent only in the last four decades.
4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
North of 60N South of 60N Annual heating degree-days area-averaged
During the past 70 years, a significant decrease in energy needed for heating: by 6%, 8%, and 9% in Central, Southern, and Western Siberia respectively.
Annual heating degree-days area-averaged
5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Central Siberia South Siberia West Siberia
collocated with cruises in the 1990s.
Archive of Yu et al. 2004
June time series and its linear trend Ł Available from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center
http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html
Courtesy of Dr. Florence Fetterer, NSIDC, Boulder, Colorado
Arctic Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, Sept., %
2008
Terra-MODIS RGB, July-Sept 2008, 250 m resolution. Courtesy of Dr. Alexander Trishchenko, Chief, Canada Centre for Remote Sensing
Annual land surface air temperature changes (MIT GCM run) due to “forcing” by SST and sea ice changes (Sokolov 2008) => Northern Eurasia is “attacked” globally and from the Arctic
Soil moisture changes over European Russia south
100 and 10 cm respectively (Speranskaya 2009)
30 60 90 120 150 180
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Years
Soil moisture, mm
5 10 15 20
upper meter upper 10 cm
Upper 1 m Upper 10 cm
r = 0.78; rates of change = 9.3%/10yr [R2=0.58] and 5.5%/10yr [R2=0.15] respectively.
1 – derno-podzolic soil 2 – gray forest soil A – western and B – eastern regions
Soil moisture changes in the first upper meter in Asian Russia
April-May June-August
20 40 60 80 100 120 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
5 10 15 20 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
Whole China Mean Precipitation Anomalies
Anomalies Percentage Anomalies
80 90 100 110 120 130 20 30 40 50
Trends in Annual Precipitation during 1951-2000
Filled (open) circles 10%, 5% increase (decrease) X – means that trend is statistically significant at the 5% level
latest period (since 1990) with the previous three decades shows:
– A significant increase in surface air temperatures with the largest changes (~1°C) in the cold season – A significant (up to 1 m s-1) decrease in the near surface wind speed across the nation in all seasons matching changes in the neighboring steppe areas of Russia and changes in ∂T/∂ϕ. – A sizeable increase in the surface air absolute humidity while the relative humidity remains mostly unchanged, and – No discernable changes in precipitation (except an increase in the Tian Shan piedmonts)
Annual precipitation area-averaged over the Danube (blue) and Dnieper (green) River Basins, mm (Ivanov et al. 2009)
Summer precipitation
Ukraine
Trans-Carpathian (Uzhgorod) June-September rainfall totals
300 600 900 1200 1500 1800
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
While summer rainfall in the Western Ukraine does not increase (actually the totals were going down), in the last decade a more frequent
was observed that caused devastating flooding (the last such flood was in August 2008).
1995 1965
Summer frequency of rainy days and days with heavy rains. Asian part of Russia
(Sun and Groisman 2000)
Trends in the number days with heavy precipitation (above the upper 5th percentile)
More Extreme events
Filled (open) circles 10%, 5% increase (decrease) X - Significant at the 5% level; 1951-2000 period
Regions with more humid conditions (blue), regions where potential forest fire danger has increased in the 20th century (red), the region where agricultural droughts have increased (circled), and the region where prolonged dry episodes have increased (rectangled).
M a j
w h e a t p r
u c i n g a r e a i n N
t h e r n A s i a
Changes in the surface water cycle over Northern Eurasia that have been statistically significant in the 20th century
Mescherskaya & Blazhevich (1997 updated), Dai et al. (2004), Zhai et al. (2005), Niu and Zhai (2008), Groisman et al. (2005, 2007), Groisman and Knight (2007).
Agricultural regions of West Siberia and northern Kazakhstan: Regional drought index;
Meshcherskaya & Blazhevich, 1997, updated to 2008
DYNAMICS OF FIRES NUMBERS AND BURNED AREA (PROTECTED TERRITORY OF RUSSIA)
Korovin and Zukkert 2003, updated
Potential Forest Fire Danger Increase. Russian Far East south of 55°N
Groisman et al. 2007, “Global and Planetary Change”, 56, 371-386.
Seasonal and annual changes in forest fire indices in northeastern China
Niu & Zhai 2008 Niu & Zhai 2008 MNI ( MNI (----
) & FFDI ( FFDI (-----
)
1 3 5 7 9 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Years Percent
Dry episodes above 30 days during the warm season
Linear trend 1.0% per 50 yrs; R2 = 0.14
0.75 1.5 2.25 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Over European Russia south of 60°N, a widespread occurrence of hot nights (with Tmin ≥ 23.9°C) became more frequent during the past decade
Days
Changes of the winter frequency of days with thaw over Fennoscandia. Thaw-day is defined as a day with mean daily temperature above 2°C and the presence
Water (0),Tundra (1), forest-tundra (2), darkleaf taiga (3) and lightleaf taiga (4), forest-steppe (5), steppe (6), semidesert (7), and polar desert (8).
Biome distribution over Siberia in current (a) and 2090 (b) climates (Vygodskaya et al. 2007)
Annual anomalies Data source: Archive of work of Lugina et al. 2007.
Increase: 1.8K per 128 years
Global (latitudinal zone from 60°S to 90°N) and Northern Eurasia (north of 40° N) surface air temperature anomalies, 1881-2008 (Archive of Lugina et al. 2007 updated).
.
Linear trends, 0.86K/128yrs and 1.47K/128yrs respectively, are statistically significant at the 0.001 level