INTEGRATED STUDIES OF CLIMATIC STUDIES OF CLIMATIC INTEGRATED - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
INTEGRATED STUDIES OF CLIMATIC STUDIES OF CLIMATIC INTEGRATED CHANGES IN SIBERIA: METODS AND CHANGES IN SIBERIA: METODS AND INVESTIGATION RESULTS INVESTIGATION RESULTS RAS Corresponding member RAS Corresponding member Kabanov Mikhail
Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, Tomsk Systems SB RAS, Tomsk RAS Corresponding member RAS Corresponding member
Main investigation fields of IMCES SB RAS Main investigation fields of IMCES SB RAS IMCES projects carrying out in the context of RAS programs, Depa IMCES projects carrying out in the context of RAS programs, Department of Earth rtment of Earth sciences sciences
16.5. Comprehensive monitoring of contemporary climate changes in West Siberia (RAS Corr. member M.B. Kabanov) Scientific and technological basis for monitoring and modeling climatic and ecosystem changes under impact of natural and anthropogenic factors Basic foundation for designing new instruments, elements and materials for environmental monitoring
IMCES projects carrying out in the context of SB RAS Projects IMCES projects carrying out in the context of SB RAS Projects
7.10.1.1. Investigation of climate forming atmospheric processes accounting for impact of global and regional factors (RAS Corr. member M.V. Kabanov, Doctor of Sci..(Phys.&Math.) I.I. Ippolitov) 7.10.1.2. Development of information and measuring technologies for monitoring and modeling atmospheric, hydrospheric and lithospheric processes in Siberian geosystem (Doctor of Sci..(Phys.&Math.) V.A. Krutikov) 7.10.1.3. Investigation of ecosystem changes in Siberia and associated land use risks (Doctor of Sci. (Geogr.) A.V. Pozdnyakov) 7.13.1.2. Development of methods and instruments based on optical, radiowave and acoustic effects for studying natural and technogenic systems (Doctor of Sci. (Engineering) A.A. Tikhomirov) 6.3.1.16. Diversity of boreal forests ecosystems: dynamic and functional aspects (Doctor of Sci. (Geogr.) A.G. Dyukarev 4.5.2.2. Development of scientific basis for information-calculation system based on Web and GIS- technologies for studying regional climate processes Doctor of Sci. (Phys.&Math.) E.P. Gordov
Regularities of warming observed in Siberia Regularities of warming observed in Siberia
Analysis of unterannual changes of temperature regime
Leading role of atmospheric circulation is characteristic for warming in Siberia in 20th century (mostly due to winter months of recent decades) From correlation analysis of wavelet spectra the climatic phenomenon has been revealed in the middle of 20th century, namely, high correlation between T and NAO index periodicities with the scale of 30-50 years Analysis of phase shifts for T and NAO index wavelet spectra revealed delay of up to 7 years between the above periodicities. This fact is associated with inertial mechanisms of heat transfer by oceanic fluxes
Periodicity scale, years Wavelet location, years
Analysis of troposphere zonal circulation in Northern Hemisphere Analysis of troposphere zonal circulation in Northern Hemisphere has shown has shown increase of wind velocity at subtropical stream flux axis by 1 increase of wind velocity at subtropical stream flux axis by 1 m/s m/s for 10 years for 10 years for sequence of cold seasons in for sequence of cold seasons in 1948 1948-
2005. .
Long Long-
term mean distribution of zonal wind component at component at 200 200 hPa hPa level level ( (~ ~11 11 km km) ) Distribution of linear trends of zonal wind Distribution of linear trends of zonal wind component at component at 200 200 hPa hPa level level ( (~ ~11 11 km km) )
January
Regularities of zonal atmospheric circulation in Northern Hemisp Regularities of zonal atmospheric circulation in Northern Hemisphere here Analysis of Analysis of interannual interannual changes of subtropical stream flux changes of subtropical stream flux
Regularities of warming observed in Siberia Regularities of warming observed in Siberia Analysis of Analysis of unterannual unterannual changes of temperature regime changes of temperature regime Diurnal and seasonal temperature variations (weather station Bakchar, Tomsk oblast). Vertical bars correspond to difference between maximum and minimum diurnal temperature Amplitude of interseasonal temperature variations А is determined by variations of winter temperatures Т and described by formula (in ºС):
Surface temperature, oC Surface temperature, oC
Seasonal and annual mean temperature obtained from Seasonal and annual mean temperature obtained from data of Irkutsk weather station in 1882 data of Irkutsk weather station in 1882-
2006: summer (1), annual mean (2), winter (3). annual mean (2), winter (3).
Regularities of changes observed at Siberian bog ecosystems Regularities of changes observed at Siberian bog ecosystems
Results of long Results of long-
term observations of СО СО2
2 emission at Great
emission at Great Vasyugan Vasyugan Bog (GVB) Bog (GVB)
Empirical dependence of Empirical dependence of СО СО2
2 emission on
emission on meteorological conditions meteorological conditions : : where where F F is emission flux is emission flux, , С ССО
СО2 2 is
is СО СО2
2 concentration,
concentration, Т Т is air temperature is air temperature. .
,
2
cT bC a F
CO +
− =
Forecast made to Forecast made to 2080 2080 accounting for IPCC scenario accounting for IPCC scenario shows that shows that carbon balance carbon balance at GVB will remain positive at GVB will remain positive. .
Map of Great Vasyugan Bog (peat deposits) and landscape profile with observations sites , и
Stratigraphic column of peat deposit for a set of characteristics (degree of decomposition, accumulation rates for carbon and organic matter, content of microelements, etc.)
Regularities of changes observed at Siberian bog ecosystems Regularities of changes observed at Siberian bog ecosystems
Results of Results of paleoresearch paleoresearch of peat deposits at Great
Vasyugan Bog Bog
Wavelet analysis of bog-forming process development on
Regional peculiarities of bog Regional peculiarities of bog-
forming process have been revealed, as well as its relation to climatic, cryogenic and relation to climatic, cryogenic and pyrogenic pyrogenic processes of peat accumulation at GVB processes of peat accumulation at GVB Cycles in peat forming process have been found for natural (with Cycles in peat forming process have been found for natural (without anthropogenic
impact) site at GVB with scales from impact) site at GVB with scales from 500 500 to to 2300 2300 years.
These cycles are similar to hydrological cycles of European and North American bogs, as well hydrological cycles of European and North American bogs, as well as to as to paleolevels paleolevels
Vac C g/m2/year Scales, years
Innovation project of IMCES SB RAS Innovation project of IMCES SB RAS: : creation of information creation of information-
analytical center for ecological monitoring of man center for ecological monitoring of man-
induced risks under development of development of Bakchar Bakchar iron iron-
Biochemical laboratory for sample preparation Quantulus Radioisotope spectrometer (Finland) Analytical center of IMCES SB RAS
(IMCES SB RAS)
(Japan)
Key sites for ecological monitoring network
Analysis of Analysis of phytonomic phytonomic, morphological and molecular , morphological and molecular-
genetic features of 5-
needle pines of Northern and Eastern Asia shown that cedar pines form c pines of Northern and Eastern Asia shown that cedar pines form common
phylogenetic phylogenetic system. This system is formed as a result of alternation of cyc
les of climatically stipulated species divergence and their natural hyb climatically stipulated species divergence and their natural hybridization. ridization.
Mountain pine Mountain pine ( (at the left at the left), ), Siberian stone pine Siberian stone pine ( (in the in the center center) ) and their natural and their natural hybrid (at the right) at hybrid (at the right) at Sokhondo Sokhondo mountain mountain ( (Baikal region, altitude of Baikal region, altitude of 1 1700 700 m m) )
Regularities of changes observed for forest ecosystems in Siberi Regularities of changes observed for forest ecosystems in Siberia a
Results of long Results of long-
term observations of Siberian stone pine growth
Innnovation Innnovation project of IMCES SB RAS project of IMCES SB RAS: : testing of new testing of new afforestation afforestation technologies and creation of a new arboretum for selected planti technologies and creation of a new arboretum for selected planting ng stock stock ( (by the example of Siberian stone pine pool of Tomsk oblast by the example of Siberian stone pine pool of Tomsk oblast) )
Main station for selected planting stock cultivation (Kurlek village) Map of rented forest sites for testing afforestation technologies
Scientific instrument Scientific instrument-
making
AMK appearance AMK appearance Comparison of measured Comparison of measured and forecasted air and forecasted air temperature temperature MGR appearance MGR appearance MGR location at Russian MGR location at Russian territory territory
AMK automated weather stations AMK automated weather stations based on ultrasonic based on ultrasonic thermoanemometers thermoanemometers, using , using special software, provide forecast special software, provide forecast
parameters up to 6 hours ahead parameters up to 6 hours ahead MGR MGR multichannel multichannel geophysical geophysical recorders based on low recorders based on low-
frequency radiometers radiometers provide short provide short-
term forecast of earthquakes and landslip forecast of earthquakes and landslip risks. risks. New electromagnetic method with New electromagnetic method with the use of MGR has been tested the use of MGR has been tested at at Sibir Sibir-
West Europe gas pipeline (Kama river slope).
Innovation project of IMCES SB RAS Innovation project of IMCES SB RAS : : creation of information creation of information-
measuring system for special monitoring and forecast of squall risks squall risks ( (with tests at Tomsk airport with tests at Tomsk airport) )
Planned network of information Planned network of information-
measuring system for squall risks squall risks forecast forecast