Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI): An - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI): An Overview of its current Status and Studies in Northern Asia Pavel Y. Groisman 1 Garik Gutman 2 Vladimir M. Kattsov 3 and Richard G. Lawford 4 1. UCAR at NOAA NCDC, Asheville, NC, United States 2. NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC USA 3. VMGO, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation 4. U. Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada

PART 1 Why the research in Northern Eurasia is expedient

Global Surface Air Temperature Anomalies, °C 1.0 2010 Budyko and Vinnikov 1976: 0.8 Global Warming 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 3.5 Temperature anomalies, K "globe" Northern Eurasia, north of 40N Rates of increase of 2.5 annual temperature 1.5 for the 0.5 “ globe ” (60 ° S to 90 ° N) and Northern -0.5 Eurasia are 0.91 ° C/ -1.5 1955 130 yr and 1.5 ° C/ 130yr respectively. -2.5 (Lugina et al 2007, -3.5 updated). 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 Years

Annual ¡surface ¡air ¡temperature ¡area-­‑averaged ¡ over ¡the ¡60°N ¡-­‑ ¡90°N ¡la;tudinal ¡zone ¡(Arc;c) ¡ ¡ 2.5 2010 ¡ 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 dT/dt = 1.33°C/100yrs; R ² = 0.44 -1.5 -2 1880 ¡ 1900 ¡ 1920 ¡ 1940 ¡ 1960 ¡ 1980 ¡ 2000 ¡ 2020 ¡ Linear trend for the entire period of instrumental observations is 1.73 ° C/130 yr but there were periods (e.g., 1936-2004) when there was no statistically significant linear trend (Groisman et al. 2006, updated).

Decrease in surface air temperature meridional gradients over the Northern Hemisphere estimated as a difference of tropical mean zonal temperature (zone 0 ° - 30 ° N) and polar mean zonal temperature (zone 60 ° N - 90 ° N). Winter For Northern Eurasia climate, zonal heat and water vapor transport are of critical importance.

Autumn sea ice extent changes (%) Arctic Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, Sept. (%) Terra-­‑MODIS ¡RGB, ¡July-­‑ Sept ¡2008, ¡250 ¡m ¡ resolu;on. ¡Cloud ¡free ¡ composite. ¡(Trishchenko ¡ et ¡al ¡2009). ¡ ¡Please, ¡note ¡ large ¡areas ¡of ¡ice-­‑free ¡ water ¡in ¡the ¡Arc;c ¡during ¡ this ¡three-­‑months-­‑long ¡ season. ¡ ¡ Source: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

What is going now? Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies (%) in June Sea Ice Extent on July 4, 2011 2011

Changes of the maximum snow water equivalent over Russia Zone, region Change in 1967-2009 • Arctic No changes • Fields of European Russia, north of 55 ° N Increase by 4 to 6%/10yr • Southeast of “-”-”-”-”-”-” (ER) Decrease by 4.5%/10yr • Steppe-forest steppe of ER No changes • Fields of West Siberia Increase by 6%/10yr • Central East Siberia Slight increase • South of East Siberia No changes • Fields of Russian Far East Increase by 3 to 6%/10yr

Northern Asia, north of 40°N Winter temperature anomalies for the past 130 years, 1951-1975 reference period 7 Winter 5 Temperature anomalies, K 3 1 -1 -3 -5 dT/dt= 2.35K/130 yrs; R ² = 0.17 Years -7 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 Archive of Lugina et al. 2007, updated

7 Asia north of 40N Temperature anomalies, K Spring 5 3 temperature 1 changes over -1 -3 North Asia -5 dT/dt = 2.35 K/130 yrs; R 2 = 0.29 -7 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 Years Temperature 7 Asia north of 60N Temperature anomalies, K 5 anomalies (°C) 3 from the mean for 1 the 1951-1975 -1 reference period. -3 Archive of Lugina -5 dT/dt = 2.22 K/130 yrs; R 2 = 0.17 et al. 2007, updated -7 Years 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010

April ¡ ¡snow ¡cover ¡extent ¡anomalies ¡over ¡Eurasia ¡ Snow cover extent from NOAA satellites for 1967-2011. NOAA NCDC 2011: State of the Climate Global Analysis April 2011. [ Available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php?report=global&year=2011month=apr ]

Area-averaged dates of the spring onset over Russia D is defined as a spring date when mean daily temperature stably passes 5 ° C (nationwide mean D-date is ~ May 25 th ). During the past four decades changes in D have not matched with changes in the dates when the snowmelt start (defined as a late winter date when mean daily temperature stably passes -5 ° C; nationwide mean date is ~April 15 th ).

Begin of the no-frost season in Siberia Julian days 170 1966-2010; dD/dt = -1.7 days/10yr; R ² = 0.34 165 160 155 150 May 30 145 1936-2010; dD/dt = -0.6 days/10yr; R ² = 0.14 140 1930 ¡ 1940 ¡ 1950 ¡ 1960 ¡ 1970 ¡ 1980 ¡ 1990 ¡ 2000 ¡ 2010 ¡ Dates when daily minimum temperature sustainably crosses 0°C in spring and remains above it

Summary of the cold season changes During the past 130 years, the annual surface air temperature in Northern Eurasia has increased by 1.5 ° C (over Northern Asia by 1.8 ° C and in the winter season by 3 ° C). The late summer sea ice extent decreased by 40% exposing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in early cold season months. • As a result of these changes, (a) in autumn the dates of the onset of snow cover have not changed noticeably despite the strong temperature increase in this season; (b) in late spring, snow cover extent has decreased, retreating by 1 to 2 weeks earlier during the past 40 years; (c) in the cold season maximum snow depth and SWE (at open areas) have increased over most of Russia; and (d) more early and devastating floods were documented in Siberia. • In the western half of Eurasian continent days with thaw became more frequent. For example, in Fennoscandia in the second half of the 20th century, the number of days with winter thaw increased by 6 days in 50 years, or by 35% changing the winter season as it has been known.

The mean seasonal net surface radiation budget, W m -2 (Stackhouse 2004)

July total net irradiance (solar net + thermal infrared net) The 22 year average from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget project. Courtesy of Paul Stackhouse Jr. and Colleen Mikovitz, NASA Langley Research Center

Northern Asia, north of 40°N Summer temperature anomalies for the past 130 years; 1951-1975 reference period ¡ ¡ ¡ 3 Temperature anomalies, K Summer 2 1 0 -1 dT/dt = 0.78 K/130 yrs; R 2 = 0.24 -2 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 Years Archive of Lugina et al. 2006, updated

Number of days with “hot” nights (when minimum daily surface air temperatures remain above 23.9°C) area-averaged over European Russia south of 60°N during the 1891-2009 period. This number for 2010 exceeds 5.

Duration of the no-frost period Central Siberia, south of 55°N 130 D a 120 y s 110 100 90 80 dD/dt = 14 days (100 yr) -1 ; or 13%(100 yr) -1 ; R ² = 0.31 70 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Biome distribution over Siberia in current (a) and 2090 (b) climates (Vygodskaya et al. 2007) Water (0),Tundra (1), forest-tundra (2), darkleaf taiga (3) and lightleaf taiga (4), forest-steppe (5), steppe (6), semidesert (7), and polar desert (8).

Changes in the surface water cycle over Northern Eurasia that have been statistically significant in the 20 th century More humid conditions (blue), more dry conditions (red), more agricultural droughts (circled), more prolonged dry episodes (rectangled). Groisman et al 2009 (Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.)

DYNAMICS OF FIRES NUMBERS AND BURNED AREA (PROTECTED TERRITORY OF RUSSIA) Korovin and Zukkert 2003, updated

Intense fire in a Pinus sylvestris forest, resulting in a likely conversion to steppe • Left , no regeneration after several years; right , no regeneration after 20 years (Siberia) Tchebakova et al. (2009)

Landscape after forest fires • Thawing of ice-rich permafrost, triggered by forest fire in Central Yakutia, transforms boreal forest into steppe-like habitats (photo by Vladimir Romanovsky)

Biome distribution over Siberia in current (a) and 2090 (b) climates (Vygodskaya et al. 2007) Water (0),Tundra (1), forest-tundra (2), darkleaf taiga (3) and lightleaf taiga (4), forest-steppe (5), steppe (6), semidesert (7), and polar desert (8).

Larch wood remnants at Pionerskaya rivulet, the Khatanga River, Taymyr Peninsula. Climatic Optimum of Holocene (6000-6500 years BP) Air temperatures of January and July in the Peninsula area were 2-4° С and 1-2° С higher, respectively (Nikolskaya 1982), Picture by M.M. Naurzbaev

Why we have to be expedient in our research? Firstly: the changes are already here and they have been large!

Secondly, • We are facing a non-linearity in environmental and climatic changes in Northern Eurasia right now due to – Dramatic retreat of the Arctic sea Ice that is causing • rampaged coastal erosion (up to 10 m yr -1 ) • additional source of heat and moisture in early winter – Impact on the World Ocean thermohaline circulation due to changes in the fresh water inflow into the Arctic Ocean – Feedbacks to the global carbon budget & climate due to • Permafrost thaw, including release of carbon (both, methane and CO 2 ) stored in the frozen Arctic shelf and coast • Wetlands transformation • Land cover changes and • Ecosystems shift