Change of hydrological cycle due to climate warming in northern - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Change of hydrological cycle due to climate warming in northern Eurasia

V.P.Meleshko

Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, Roshydromet,

• St. Petersburg, Russia

(Hansen, 2006)

Last 50 years surface temperature change based on linear trends (deg C)

(Hansen, 2006)

(Georgievsky at al., 2003)

Observed runoff changes (%) in major river basins of Russia for winter 1978-2000 in relation to previous 55 years.

Annual anomalies Winter anomalies Annually averaged runoff changes (%) observed in major river basins

• f Russia for period 1978-2000 in relation to previous 55 years.

(Georgievsky at al., 2003)

Specific features of climate in the Northern Eurasia

The region has variety of climates. It includes vast areas of tundra,

boreal forests, semi-deserts and deserts.

The surface air temperature increase reported for the last 30 years was the

greatest in the northern hemisphere and the model simulations show that the climate of this region will undergo the most substantial changes in the future.

The region plays an important role in transfer of energy, water,

greenhouse gases and aerosols between the atmosphere, land surface, hydrosphere, and cryosphere.

Number of non-frosty days for the current climate (basic period 1980-1999) simulated by IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble 1980-1999

CRYOSPHERE AND HYDROLOGY

When climate warms and precipitation increases mostly in winter, three possibilities may occur depending on regions considered: Snow mass accumulation decreases. It results in decreasing snow melt and flooding in spring, but increases drying of soil in at the beginning of summer. Increase of solid precipitation in excessively cold regions results in larger accumulation of snow mass by the end of winter. It contributes to more frequent flooding in spring and favours development of wet condition in early summer. All precipitation falls down in liquid phase, runoff increases. It favours flooding and contributes to soil drying in spring and particularly at the beginning of summer.

Why do we believe that current climate change is due to GHG Why do we believe that current climate change is due to GHG increase in the atmosphere? increase in the atmosphere?

• Global warming could be stimulated by violation radiation balance of

climate system due to external forcing

(Gareth et al., 2003)

• Cooling of the stratosphere and warming of the troposphere could occur
• nly due to GHG forcing on climate system.

• Current climate models reproduce major patterns of 20th

century climate change only when atmospheric GHG increase is taken into account.

БАЛАНС БАЛАНС СО СО2

2

в в глобальной глобальной системе системе Земля Земля (IPCC (IPCC, , 2001) 2001)

Выбросы СО2 в атмосферу

6.3±0.4 млрд. т. (100%)

Накопление в атмосфере

3.3±0.1 млрд. т. ( 52%)

Усвоение СО2 океаном

• 2.3±0.5 млрд. т. (-37%)

Усвоение СО2 почвой

• 0.7±0.6 млрд. т. (-11%)

СО2 emission to atmosphere

6.3±0.4 Gt. (100%)

Accumulation in atmosphere

3.3±0.1 Gt. ( 52%)

Absorption by ocean

• 2.3±0.5 Gt. (-37%)

Assimilation by soil

• 0.7±0.6 Gt. (-11%)

CO CO2

2 BALANCE

BALANCE in global terrestrial system in global terrestrial system (IPCC (IPCC, , 2001) 2001)

ВРЕМЯ ВРЕМЯ ЖИЗНИ ЖИЗНИ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ГАЗОВ ГАЗОВ В В АТМОСФЕРЕ АТМОСФЕРЕ (IPCC (IPCC, , 2001) 2001)

СО2

50-200 лет

CH4

10 лет

N2O

150 лет

CFC-11

65 лет

CFC-12`

130 лет

СО2

50-200 yrs

CH4

10 yrs

N2O

150 yrs

CFC-11

65 yrs

CFC-12`

130 yrs LIFE TIME OF GHG IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIFE TIME OF GHG IN THE ATMOSPHERE (IPCC (IPCC, , 2001) 2001)

ВРЕМЯ ВРЕМЯ ЖИЗНИ ЖИЗНИ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ГАЗОВ ГАЗОВ В В АТМОСФЕРЕ АТМОСФЕРЕ (IPCC (IPCC, , 2001) 2001)

СО2

50-200 лет

CH4

10 лет

N2O

150 лет

CFC-11

65 лет

CFC-12`

130 лет

Carbon dioxide(CO2) - 31% Methan (CH4) 151% Nitrous oxide (N2O) 17%

How much GHG have increased in the atmosphere for How much GHG have increased in the atmosphere for the last 140 years? the last 140 years?

A2 B1

Источник: IPCC, 2001

Increase of major GHG from 1990 to 2100

A2 B1

CO2

2.38 1.39

CH4

1.46 0.89

N2O

1.45 1.22

1.20x20L31 Grid point 144x48xL19 IPSL-CM4, 2005 Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France 13 20x2.50L33 Grid point 72x45xL21 INM-CM3.0, 2004 Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia 12 (0.3-1.00)x1.00 Grid point 144x90xL24 GFDL-CM2.0, 2005 NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA 8 (0.5-1.50)x1.50L44 Spectral T63L31 BCCR-BCM2.0, 2005 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway 1 (0.50-2.80)x2.80L20 Spectral T30L20 ECHO-G, 1999 Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn/MRI KMA. Germany/Korea 7 1.90x1.90L29 Spectral T85L26 NCAR_CSM3, 2005 National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA 15 (0.50-0.70)x1.10L40 Spectral T42L26 NCAR_PCM, 1998 National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA 16 0.80x1.90L31 Spectral T63L18 CSIRO Mk3.0, 2001 CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Australia 4 1.40x(0.5-1.40)L44 Spectral T42L20 MIROC3.2(medres), 2004 Center for Climate System Research, Japan. 3 192x96L29 Spectral T47L32 CGCM3.1(t47), 2005 Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling & Analysis, Canada 2 1.5x1.5L40 Spectral T63L31 ECHAM5/MPI-OM, 2005 Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, Germany 6 (0.5-2.00)x2.00L31 182x152L31 Spectral T63L45 CNRM-CM3, 2004 Meteo-France/Centre National de recherches Meteorologique 5 (0.50-2.00)x2.50L23 Spectral T42L30 MRI-CGCM2.3.2, 2003 Meteorological Research Institute, Japan 14 (1.00-0.30)x1.00L40 Grid point 92x144xL21 HADGEM, 2004 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research/Met UK 11 1.5x1.5L20 Grid point 96x73xL19 HADCM3, 1997 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research/Met UK 10 (0.3-1.00)x1.00 Grid point 144x90xL24 GFDL-CM2.1, 2005 NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA 9 Ocean Resolution Atmospheric resolution IPCC ID Modeling groups No.

IPCC AR4 climate models IPCC AR4 climate models

ENS-16

IPCC AR4 MODEL RANKS

ENS 16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

M-16 CCSR_me ECHAM CCC-T47 ECHO-G MRI GFDL_CM2.1 HADGEM1 HADCM3 NCAR_CSM CSIRO CNRM INM GFDL_CM2.0 BCCR IPSL NCAR PCM

PRC TAS SLP SST-N

Composed annual RMSE of individual models for precipitation (PRC), surface air temperature over continents (TAS), sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern hemisphere normalized at appropriate multi- model RMSEs.

ΔT16=3.26 ± 0.67

TAS PR

• 0.1

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 02 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 20 5 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 7 0 2 0 8 0 2 0 9 0 2 1 00

• 2
• 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0

1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 7 0 2 0 8 0 2 0 9 0 2 1 0 0

Annually averaged surface air temperature (deg C) and precipitation (mm/day) changes in Russia during 21st century relative to basic climate period (1980-1999). Scenario B1 and A2. Ensemble runs with 16 IPCC AR4 climate models.

B1 A2 A2 B1

Winter 2011-2030 гг. Summer 2041-2060 гг. Winter 2041-2060 гг. Summer 2011-2030 гг. Surface air temperature changes (deg C) in winter and summer at the beginning (2011-2030) and middle (2041-2060) of the 21st century with respect to temperature at the basic period (1980-1999). Scenario A.

Administrative regions selected for evaluation of anthropogenic climate changes.

Summer 2011-2030 Winter 2011-2030

Regions Regions Regions Regions

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6

Expected changes of surface air temperature (deg C) over administrative regions of Russia in winter and summer at beginning and middle of the 21st century with respect to the basic period 1980-1999. Multi-model ensemble comprising 16 AOGCMs. Scenario A2.

Winter 2041-2060 Summer 2041-2060

Increase vegetation period (days) at the beginning and middle of the 21st century with respect to basic period 1980-1999 in Northern Hemisphere as computed from multi-model ensemble IPCC AR4. Scenario A2.

2011-2030 2041-2060

2011-2030 2041-2060 2011-2030 2041-2060 Winter Summer Winter Summer Total precipitation changes (in %) in winter and summer at the beginning (2011-2030) and middle (2041-2060) of the 21st century with respect to total precipitation at the basic period (1980-1999). Scenario A2.

Administrative regions selected for evaluation of anthropogenic climate changes.

Summer 2011-2030 Winter 2011-2030

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

• 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

• 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

• 25
• 20
• 15
• 10
• 5

5 10 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

• 25
• 20
• 15
• 10
• 5

5 10 15

Expected changes of presipitation (%) over administrative regions of Russia in winter and summer at beginning and middle of the 21st century with respect to the basic period 1980-1999. Multi-model ensemble comprising 16 AOGCMs. Scenario A2.

Winter 2041-2060 Summer 2041-2060

Changes of total and solid precipitation (in %) for winter at the beginning (2011-2030) and middle (2041-2060) of the 21st century with respect to total precipitation at the basic period (1980-1999). 2011-2030 2041-2060 2011-2030 2041-2060 Зима 2041-2060 Total precipitation Total precipitation Snow Snow

Winter 2041-2060 Winter 2011-2030

регионы регионы

Expected changes of snow mass (%)

• ver administrative regions of Russia

at beginning and middle of the 21st century with respect to the basic period 1980-1999. Multi-model ensemble comprising 16 AOGCMs. Scenario A2. Administrative regions

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

• 15
• 10
• 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

• 15
• 10
• 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2011-2030 2041-2060 2011-2030 2041-2060

Total precipitation Convective precipitation

Changes of total and convective precipitation (in %) in summer at the beginning (2011-2030) and middle (2041-2060) of the 21st century with respect to total precipitation at the basic period (1980-1999).

Total precipitation Convective precipitation

Change of annual runoff at the middle of the 21st century with respect to basic period (1980-1999). Scenario A2 2041-2060

Expected changes of annual runoff (%) over major watersheds at beginning and middle of the 21st century with respect to the basic period 1980-

• 1999. Multi-model ensemble

comprising 16 AOGCMs. Scenario A2. 2041-2060 2011-2030

Д н е п р /Д о н В о л г а О б ь Е н и с е й П е ч о р а /С .Д в . Л е н а

• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 10 и з м е н е н и я с т о к а , %

Д н е п р /Д о н В о л г а О б ь Е н и с е й П е ч о р а /С .Д в . Л е н а

• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 10 и з м е н е н и я с т о к а , %

Watersheds

Pechora Pechora Baltic Baltic Dnepr/ Don Volga Ob Enisey Lena

Февраль Март Апрель Май

Changes of melting rate of snow (mm/day) in spring at the middle of the 21st century (2041-2060) with respect to basic period (1980-1999), scenario A2

Summer 2041-2060 Spring 2011-2030 Spring 2011-2030 Summer 2041-2060

Changes of soil moisture of the upper layer (in %) for spring and summer at the beginning (2011-2030) and middle (2041-2060) of the 21st century with respect to soil moisture at the basic period (1980-1999).

Summer 2041-2060 Spring 2011-2030 Spring 2011-2030 Summer 2011-2030

Changes of total clouds (in %) for spring and summer at the beginning (2011-2030) and middle (2041-2060) of the 21st century with respect to total clouds at the basic period (1980-1999).

HOW OBSERVED SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER RUSSIA DO AGREE WITH THOSE SIMULATED BY MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE?

Last 50 years surface temperature change based on linear trends (deg C)

(Hansen, 2006)

Last 30 years surface temperature change based on linear trends (deg C)

(Gruza, 2006)

Last 30 years surface temperature change based on linear trends (deg C)

(Gruza, 2006)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

years

• 2
• 1

1 2 3 4

TAS anomaly (deg. C)

Observation

Multimodel Projection

ensemble mean 11 yrs moving average

• 2.0
• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Mean coefficients of 30-years linear trends of monthly surface air temperature over Russia.

1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361

Days of year

1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971

Beginig of 30 yrs period

2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920

• 2.0
• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Mean 30-years anomaly of surface air temperature over Russia with respect to corresponding norm for period 1961-1990 averaged with monthly moving filter.

1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361

Days of year

1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971

Begining of 30 yrs period

2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920

HOW ENSEMBLE CLIMATE CHANGE DEPENDS ON MODEL SELECTION?

ENS-16

IPCC AR4 MODEL RANKS

ENS 8.1 ENS 8.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

M-16 CCSR_me ECHAM CCC-T47 ECHO-G MRI GFDL_CM2.1 HADGEM1 HADCM3 NCAR_CSM CSIRO CNRM INM GFDL_CM2.0 BCCR IPSL NCAR PCM

PRC TAS SLP SST-N

Composed annual RMSE of individual models for precipitation (PRC), surface air temperature over continents (TAS), sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern hemisphere normalized at appropriate multi- model RMSEs.

ΔT81 =3.54 ± 0.40 ΔT82 =2.88 ± 0.78

TAS PR Annually averaged surface air temperature (deg C) and precipitation (mm/day) changes in Russia during 21st century relative to basic climate period (1980-1999). Scenario B1 and A2. Multi-model runs with 3 IPCC AR4 ensembles

• 2
• 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Ensemble 16 Ensemble 8.1 Ensemble 8.2

• 0.1

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Ensemble 16 Ensemble 8.1 Ensemble 8.2

IS CLIMATE WARMING BENIFICIAL FOR RUSSIA?

Однозначная оценка последствий ожидаемого потепления для РФ (в целом, выгодно или вредно) в принципе невозможна, учитывая: сложность взаимодействия разных факторов на ее огромной территории, этическую сторону проблемы - возможность уничтожения биологических видов, катастрофические последствия для населения отдельных регионов, с одной стороны, и новые экономические возможности, с другой, политические факторы (энергетическая безопасность, геополитика, отношения с развитыми и развивающимися странами, конфликт интересов разных стран).

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 ARAL SEA How transformation of environment on regional scale for better living turned into environmental crises in Central Asia

Pessimistic future 2004

• Появляется все больше убедительных свидетельств,

что потепление в конце 20-го – начале 21-го вв. невозможно объяснить только естественными процессами, и следует ожидать дальнейшего усиления антропогенного фактора в продолжающемся глобальном потеплении.

• Результаты модельных расчетов показывают, что в 21-м в.

значительная часть территории РФ (особенно арктические и суб-арктические регионы) будет находиться в области заметно большего потепления, по сравнению с глобальным.

ЗАКЛЮЧЕНИЕ

Актуальные для РФ исследования климата находятся в русле основных задач, однако ограниченные финансовые и кадровые возможности современной российской науки требуют четкого определения национальных приоритетов.

• Российская климатическая наука должна использовать

все возможные преимущества международного сотрудничества, включая финансирования собственных или совместных исследований из зарубежных или международных источников.

• Поиски «альтернативных» направлений, идущих вразрез

с магистральными направлениями мировой науки о климате, в сложившихся условиях ведут к пустой трате и без того скудных финансовых и интеллектуальных ресурсов.

• Предсказание климата и оценка последствий

его изменений – центральная задача науки о климате. При ее решении широкое применение сложных физико- математических моделей не имеют альтернативы. В этой связи развитие национальных моделей и их использование в фундаментальных и прикладных исследованиях должны входить в число высших приоритетов российской науки о климате.

• Организация регулярной подготовки национальных

оценочных докладов должно быть приоритетом государственной политики РФ в области климата и объектом государственного управления.

• Первоочередные задачи, связанные с учетом факторов

меняющегося климата при разработке региональных программ устойчивого развития, могут решаться на основе Национального доклада об оценках изменения климата и их последствий на территории РФ.

• Чем позднее будут сформулированы и приняты

надлежащие меры по адаптации хозяйственной деятельности и социальных структур к меняющемуся климату, тем большими будут затраты.

• Необходимо создать механизмы, посредством которых

развивался бы конструктивный и открытый диалог между научным сообществом (НИУ Росгидромета, РАН и ВШ) и органами государственной власти РФ, ответственными за принятие решений.