OKLAHOMA SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS April 18 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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1 OKLAHOMA SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS April 18 th 19 th and 15 th , 2018 2 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Methodology Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 644n

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SLIDE 1

OKLAHOMA SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

April 18th – 19th and 15th, 2018

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SLIDE 2

Methodology

Ø Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 644n

autodial survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in the state

  • f Oklahoma.

Ø The interviews were conducted from April 18th, 19th and 22nd, 2018. Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.86% at the 95%

confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population.

Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past voter turnout

demographics for a Republican primary election in Oklahoma.

Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project, and

Courtney Sievers was the project director.

2

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 3

Survey Demographics

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

7% 10% 14% 24% 45% 3

48% 52% Male Female

Evangelical, Christian Conservative Trump Republican "Traditional" Republican Unsure or No Opinion

34% 31% 20% 15%

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 4

Survey Demographics

Married Widowed Separated or Divorced Single, Never Been Married Single, Living with Partner No Opinion

76% 11% 6% 5% 1% 1%

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Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 5

Congressional Districts

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Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

Oklahoma Regions - By Congressional District

3 2 4 5 1

OSAGE TEXAS KAY BEAVER ELLIS CADDO CIMARRON WOODS LE FLORE MCCURTAIN GRADY KIOWA GRANT ATOKA CREEK DEWEY BRYAN MAJOR BLAINE HARPER CUSTER PITTSBURG CRAIG WASHITA LINCOLN NOBLE PAYNE GARFIELD GARVIN LOGAN PUSHMATAHA WOODWARD ALFALFA TILLMAN MAYES CARTER HUGHES LOVE COMANCHE ADAIR COAL GREER BECKHAM TULSA CANADIAN ROGER MILLS ROGERS LATIMER STEPHENS JACKSON CHOCTAW COTTON KINGFISHER MUSKOGEE DELAWARE PAWNEE CHEROKEE NOWATA MCINTOSH HASKELL PONTOTOC JEFFERSON SEQUOYAH OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE JOHNSTON OTTAWA OKFUSKEE WAGONER MURRAY MCCLAIN SEMINOLE HARMON POTTAWATOMIE CLEVELAND MARSHALL WASHINGTON

µ

Legend

Congressional District

CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5

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SLIDE 6

VOTER ISSUE PREFERENCE

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SLIDE 7

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Major Themes Budget Problems–Audit Govt. Agencies Education – Paying Teachers – Consolidating School Districts Jobs High Taxes

“Oklahoma needs a full

audit and investigation into every agency from the top down on where

  • ur tax money is going,

who is spending it, the waste, the corruption and fix it. And stop raising taxes every time the wind blows up their

  • skirt. ”
  • Female, 55-64,

Evangelical “Leadership in the

  • legislature. The economy

and jobs. Education

  • problems. Healthcare

problems.”

  • Female, 65+, Traditional

“Figure out the states

budget problems. They have had budget problems for years and it needs to be addressed.”

  • Female, 45-54, Evangelical

“Economy and education.”

  • Male, 55-64, Traditional

“Should address the bureaucracy. Have

audits of everything and see what we can

  • cut. We should address the union of

government employees, it isn't right that the union runs our state more than the state does. ”

  • Male, 45-54, Trump Rep

“Taxes are too high. Teachers

pay is too low. Too much corruption.”

  • Female, 65+, Trump Rep

“Teacher pay raise. More funding for

schools in OK.”

  • Female, 65+, Evangelical

In your own words, being as descriptive as possible, please tell me what you think the most important issues and problems are that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most.

“Raising teachers pay.”

  • Male, 55-64, Trump Rep

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 8

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

8

ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS OTHER NO OPINION

24% 19% 13% 10% 10% 10% 7% 1% 6%

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 9

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

9 MEN WOMEN 23% 24% 15% 24% 14% 12% 15% 6% 14% 6% 10% 9% 4% 10% 2% 1% 4% 8% ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS OTHER NO OPINION

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 10

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

10 TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP 33% 17% 23% 31% 17% 9% 14% 14% 11% 7% 8% 19% 4% 11% 16% 1% 21% 4% 5% 9% 7% 2% 2% 3% 3% 9% ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS OTHER NO OPINION

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 11

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

11 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 27% 33% 27% 22% 21% 10% 19% 25% 19% 20% 34% 11% 13% 13% 10% 15% 17% 9% 9% 10% 5% 5% 8% 13% 11% 11% 8% 8% 10% 6% 1% 13% 8% 1% 4% 1% 8% 2% 5% 9% ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS OTHER NO OPINION

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 12

GARY RICHARDSON IMAGE RATING

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SLIDE 13

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

  • pinion of Gary Richardson?

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23% 28% 35% 14%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

25% 21% 31% 25% 31% 37% 12% 17% MEN WOMEN 25% 26% 26% 39% 27% 20% 24% 37% 36% 11% 11% 19% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 14

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

  • pinion of Gary Richardson?

23% 28% 35% 14%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 14

42% 23% 24% 21% 21% 18% 27% 30% 34% 26% 40% 37% 31% 31% 36% 13% 15% 14% 17% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 15

TODD LAMB IMAGE RATING

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SLIDE 16

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

  • pinion of Todd Lamb?

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35% 25% 34% 6%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

32% 37% 29% 22% 33% 35% 7% 5% MEN WOMEN 37% 41% 25% 35% 16% 31% 22% 39% 36% 6% 4% 7% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 17

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

  • pinion of Todd Lamb?

35% 25% 34% 6%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 17

35% 23% 34% 41% 34% 27% 25% 26% 30% 22% 38% 48% 32% 24% 36% 4% 8% 5% 8% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 18

KEVIN STITT IMAGE RATING

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SLIDE 19

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

  • pinion of Kevin Stitt?

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28% 19% 31% 22%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

29% 26% 21% 17% 28% 34% 22% 22% MEN WOMEN 25% 30% 33% 33% 17% 12% 29% 31% 33% 13% 21% 22% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 20

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

  • pinion of Kevin Stitt?

28% 19% 31% 22%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 20

25% 10% 25% 31% 31% 48% 10% 18% 22% 14% 27% 27% 32% 32% 33% 52% 25% 15% 22% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 21

MICK CORNETT IMAGE RATING

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SLIDE 22

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

  • pinion of Mick Cornett?

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33% 29% 21% 17%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

32% 33% 33% 25% 19% 23% 16% 19% MEN WOMEN 45% 28% 30% 23% 32% 29% 21% 24% 17% 11% 16% 24% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 23

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

  • pinion of Mick Cornett?

33% 29% 21% 17%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 23

10% 6% 38% 36% 39% 32% 46% 28% 33% 22% 31% 25% 18% 18% 21% 27% 23% 16% 14% 18% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 24

GARY JONES IMAGE RATING

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SLIDE 25

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

  • pinion of Gary Jones?

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12% 24% 33% 31%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

14% 10% 26% 21% 29% 38% 31% 31% MEN WOMEN 18% 13% 11% 31% 23% 22% 33% 37% 30% 19% 27% 37% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 26

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

  • pinion of Gary Jones?

12% 24% 33% 31%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 26

0% 12% 17% 15% 11% 45% 21% 19% 27% 20% 47% 34% 32% 32% 32% 8% 33% 32% 26% 36% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 27

DONALD TRUMP JOB APPROVAL

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SLIDE 28

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

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80% 14% 6%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION

83% 78% 12% 15% 5% 7% MEN WOMEN 56% 90% 98% 39% 5% 5% 5% 2% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 29

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

80% 14% 6%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION 29

72% 68% 74% 83% 85% 18% 12% 22% 15% 10% 10% 20% 4% 2% 4% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 30

REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL JOB APPROVAL

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SLIDE 31

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing?

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26% 58% 16%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION

25% 27% 65% 52% 10% 21% MEN WOMEN 32% 22% 29% 58% 58% 56% 10% 19% 15% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 32

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing?

26% 58% 16%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION 32

18% 8% 29% 31% 28% 54% 66% 66% 56% 56% 28% 26% 5% 13% 16% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 33

MARY FALLIN JOB APPROVAL

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SLIDE 34

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mary Fallin is doing as Governor?

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20% 63% 17%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION

24% 16% 60% 66% 16% 18% MEN WOMEN 22% 22% 21% 69% 59% 58% 9% 19% 21% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 35

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mary Fallin is doing as Governor?

20% 63% 17%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION 35

11% 10% 19% 19% 25% 64% 77% 71% 67% 55% 26% 12% 9% 14% 21% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 36

OKLAHOMA GOVERNOR REPUBLICAN PRIMARY BALLOT TEST

36

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SLIDE 37

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and Dan Fisher?

37

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED

19% 19% 17% 12% 5% 5% 23%

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SLIDE 38

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and Dan Fisher?

38

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

MEN WOMEN 15% 22% 18% 19% 18% 16% 15% 10% 6% 5% 5% 4% 23% 23% LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED

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SLIDE 39

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and Dan Fisher?

39

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP 26% 19% 17% 8% 24% 24% 31% 9% 14% 8% 15% 16% 2% 10% 2% 7% 4% 4% 18% 19% 24% LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED

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SLIDE 40

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and Dan Fisher?

40

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 27% 23% 14% 21% 17% 16% 17% 14% 20% 20% 21% 18% 22% 17% 26% 13% 9% 10% 14% 5% 7% 4% 19% 7% 4% 3% 20% 20% 27% 22% 24% LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED

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SLIDE 41

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and Dan Fisher?

41

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 13% 22% 19% 23% 20% 23% 15% 19% 24% 8% 11% 6% 18% 17% 32% 17% 14% 11% 11% 8% 5% 7% 2% 5% 10% 2% 2% 7% 5% 8% 29% 33% 24% 15% 14% LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED

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SLIDE 42

VOTER OPINION ON TEACHER RAISES

42

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SLIDE 43

As you may know, the Oklahoma Governor and state legislature recently approved a pay increase for public school teachers of about $6,000 depending on experience. Knowing this, do you support or

  • ppose the pay increase for Oklahoma public school teachers?

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79% 18% 3%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION

74% 84% 23% 14% 3% 2% MEN WOMEN 87% 77% 77% 12% 20% 22% 1% 3% 2% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 44

As you may know, the Oklahoma Governor and state legislature recently approved a pay increase for public school teachers of about $6,000 depending on experience. Knowing this, do you support or

  • ppose the pay increase for Oklahoma public school teachers?

79% 18% 3%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION 44

73% 77% 81% 80% 80% 27% 23% 17% 18% 17% 2% 2% 3% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 45

Additional Funding for Classrooms and Teachers

As you may know, after the pay raise for public school teachers was approved, teachers walked out in protest for nine days asking the Governor and state legislature for additional funding for Oklahoma’s

  • classrooms. To pay for the additional funding, the

Governor and state legislature expanded the number

  • f online purchases subject to the state sales tax, and

allowed ball and dice games at tribal casinos in which winnings are taxed. Knowing this information, do you support or oppose these actions to generate additional funding for Oklahoma’s classrooms?

45

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 46

46

66% 28% 6%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION

Additional Funding for Classrooms and Teachers

61% 71% 34% 23% 5% 6% MEN WOMEN 78% 62% 63% 18% 33% 34% 4% 5% 4% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 47

Additional Funding for Classrooms and Teachers

66% 28% 6%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION 47

56% 49% 70% 69% 69% 44% 40% 27% 28% 23% 11% 3% 3% 7% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018

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SLIDE 48

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES

303-861-8585 www.MagellanStrategies.com

David Flaherty | Courtney Sievers