COLORADO SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS February - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

COLORADO SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

February 26th – 27th, 2018

1

Methodology

ØMagellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 647n

autodial survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in the state

• f Colorado.

ØThe interviews were conducted from February 26th – 27th, 2018. ØThe overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.85% at the 95%

confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population.

ØThe survey results were weighted based upon past voter turnout

demographics for a Republican primary election in Colorado.

ØDavid Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project, and

Courtney Sievers was the project director.

2

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

Survey Demographics

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

7% 6% 14% 26% 47%

90% 10% Republican Unaffiliated

3

49% 51% Male Female

Very Conservative Conservative Moderate Refused

34% 41% 22% 3%

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

Survey Demographics

Married Widowed Separated or Divorced Single, Never Been Married Single, Living with Partner No Opinion

71% 11% 8% 7% 2% 1%

4

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

5

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

Congressional Districts

6

Colorado Congressional Districts

3 4 2 5 6 7 1

Weld Moffat Mesa Baca Park Routt Yuma Las Animas Garfield Larimer Lincoln Pueblo Gunnison Bent Saguache Elbert Grand Eagle Logan Rio Blanco Kiowa El Paso Montrose Otero Delta Washington La Plata Kit Carson Jackson Prowers Fremont Cheyenne Morgan Montezuma Adams Pitkin Huerfano Costilla Conejos Archuleta Dolores Chaffee Hinsdale Mineral San Miguel Custer Teller Douglas Crowley Boulder Phillips Ouray Arapahoe Alamosa Lake Rio Grande Sedgwick Jefferson Summit San Juan Clear Creek Gilpin Denver Broomfield

Legend

Congressional District

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2 7 6 1 4 4

Adams Jefferson Boulder Denver Weld Gilpin Arapahoe Broomfield Clear Creek

Denver Metro Area Inset

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

VOTER ISSUE PREFERENCE

7

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

8

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA UNSURE NO OPINION

43% 13% 10% 9% 9% 8% 3% 5%

9

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

MEN WOMEN

44% 42% 15% 10% 13% 7% 7% 11% 9% 9% 7% 9% 3% 4% 2% 8%

ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA UNSURE NO OPINION

10

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE 56% 41% 30% 6% 14% 20% 11% 11% 7% 6% 7% 19% 9% 11% 4% 5% 8% 12% 5% 2% 2% 2% 6% 6%

ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA UNSURE NO OPINION

11

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most?

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

43% 48% 47% 37% 44% 10% 6% 11% 15% 13% 0% 7% 6% 14% 10% 19% 11% 6% 6% 11% 15% 11% 14% 10% 6% 13% 9% 9% 9% 6% 0% 5% 4% 3% 8% 1% 6% 6% ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA UNSURE NO OPINION

WALKER STAPLETON IMAGE RATING

12

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Walker Stapleton?

13

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

33% 13% 32% 23% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

38% 28% 12% 14% 28% 35% 22% 23% MEN WOMEN

43% 32% 23% 9% 12% 21% 29% 30% 37% 19% 26% 20%

VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Walker Stapleton?

14

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

33% 13% 32% 23% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

30% 35% 29% 9% 26% 31% 15% 25% SUPPORT SAME SEX OPPOSE SAME SEX 37% 26% 10% 22% 31% 29% 23% 24% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Walker Stapleton?

33% 13% 32% 23% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

15

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 29% 40% 29% 33% 34% 7% 18% 10% 14% 13% 21% 28% 34% 28% 35% 43% 14% 27% 25% 18%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

16

Walker Stapleton Image Rating Time Series

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

• f Walker Stapleton?”

March 2017 through February 2018

35% 34% 28% 28% 33% 12% 11% 12% 14% 13% 31% 30% 34% 29% 32% 22% 25% 27% 29% 22% March 17 June 17 October 17 January 18 February 18

Favorable Unfavorable Heard of, No Opinion Never Heard Of

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

CYNTHIA COFFMAN IMAGE RATING

17

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Cynthia Coffman?

18

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

20% 21% 36% 23% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

25% 16% 20% 21% 32% 39% 23% 24% MEN WOMEN

25% 19% 16% 17% 20% 29% 35% 36% 35% 23% 24% 21%

VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Cynthia Coffman?

19

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

20% 21% 36% 23% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

29% 20% 33% 18% 23% 36% 15% 25% SUPPORT SAME-SEX OPPOSE SAME-SEX 23% 16% 19% 30% 35% 33% 23% 22% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Cynthia Coffman?

20% 21% 36% 23%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 20

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 27% 24% 10% 23% 21% 11% 28% 26% 23% 18% 29% 42% 30% 29% 41% 33% 5% 34% 25% 20%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

21

Cynthia Coffman Image Rating Time Series

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

• f Cynthia Coffman?”

March 2017 through February 2018

29% 22% 19% 20% 14% 21% 2% 21% 32% 33% 31% 36% 25% 24% 26% 23%

March 17 October 17 January 18 February 18

Favorable Unfavorable Heard of, No Opinion Never Heard Of

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

VICTOR MITCHELL IMAGE RATING

22

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Victor Mitchell?

23

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

11% 11% 30% 48% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

15% 7% 12% 11% 28% 32% 45% 51% MEN WOMEN

16% 9% 8% 8% 11% 17% 28% 30% 36% 48% 50% 40%

VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Victor Mitchell?

24

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

11% 11% 30% 48% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

15% 11% 22% 9% 29% 31%

35% 49%

SUPPORT SAME-SEX OPPOSE SAME-SEX 11% 9% 10% 17% 31% 28% 48% 46% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Victor Mitchell?

11% 11% 30% 48%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 25

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 25% 10% 6% 15% 8% 9% 26% 5% 13% 11% 11% 38% 31% 25% 34% 55% 25% 58% 47% 47%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

26

Victor Mitchell Image Rating Time Series

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

• f Victor Mitchell?”

March 2017 through February 2018

4% 5% 7% 11%

6% 6% 8% 11%

17% 19% 27% 30% 73% 70% 57% 48%

March 17 June 17 October 17 February 18

Favorable Unfavorable Heard of, No Opinion Never Heard Of

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

DOUG ROBINSON IMAGE RATING

27

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Doug Robinson?

28

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

9% 11% 32% 48% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

11% 7% 12% 10% 29% 34% 47% 49% MEN WOMEN

13% 8% 5% 8% 10% 19% 30% 31% 38% 49% 51% 38%

VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Doug Robinson?

29

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

9% 11% 32% 48% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

16% 9% 21% 8% 26% 33% 37% 50% SUPPORT SAME-SEX OPPOSE SAME-SEX 11% 8% 9% 18% 31% 33% 49% 41% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable

• pinion of Doug Robinson?

9% 11% 32% 48%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 30

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 19% 10% 4% 10% 9% 12% 19% 9% 11% 11% 27% 34% 32% 25% 35% 42% 36% 55% 54% 45%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

DONALD TRUMP JOB APPROVAL

31

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

32

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

82% 13% 5% APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE, NO OPINION

84% 79% 13% 14% 3% 7% MEN WOMEN

97% 88% 52% 1% 9% 40% 3% 3% 7%

VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

82% 13% 5% APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE, NO OPINION

33

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

83% 78% 85% 79% 82% 3% 16% 12% 17% 13% 14% 6% 3% 3% 5% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

34

Donald Trump Job Approval Among Colorado Likely Republican Primary Voters

March 2017 to February 2018

86% 81% 81% 80% 82% 10% 13% 12% 15% 13% 4% 6% 7% 5% 5%

March 17 June 17 October 17 January 18 February 18

Approve Disapprove Unsure/No Opinion

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL JOB APPROVAL

35

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing?

36

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

35% 49% 16%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE, NO OPINION

34% 35% 53% 45% 13% 20% MEN WOMEN 42% 34% 24% 46% 46% 62% 12% 20% 14% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing?

35% 49% 16%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE, NO OPINION 37

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

49% 32% 35% 34% 33% 27% 53% 58% 51% 47% 24% 14% 7% 15% 20% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

38

Republican Congressional Job Approval Among Colorado Likely Republican Primary Voters “Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing?” March 2017 to February 2018

48% 28% 14% 37% 35% 36% 57% 78% 50% 49% 16% 15% 8% 13% 16%

March 17 June 17 October 17 January 18 February 18

Approve Disapprove Unsure/No Opinion

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

COLORADO GOVERNOR REPUBLICAN PRIMARY BALLOT TEST

39

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Doug Robinson, Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, and Victor Mitchell?

40

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

26% 13% 8% 5% 9% 39%

STAPLETON COFFMAN ROBINSON MITCHELL OTHER UNDECIDED

29% 22% 12% 13% 9% 7% 6% 4% 10% 9% 33% 46%

MEN WOMEN

31% 26% 20% 10% 12% 18% 11% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 10% 18% 38% 42% 33%

VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Doug Robinson, Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, and Victor Mitchell?

41

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

26% 13% 8% 5% 9% 39%

STAPLETON COFFMAN ROBINSON MITCHELL OTHER UNDECIDED

19% 27% 18% 12% 14% 7% 8% 5% 17% 7% 23% 42%

SUPPORT SAME-SEX OPPOSE SAME-SEX

27% 23% 12% 17% 8% 7% 6% 4% 7% 15% 40% 34%

PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Doug Robinson, Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, and Victor Mitchell?

26% 13% 8% 5% 9% 39%

STAPLETON COFFMAN ROBINSON MITCHELL OTHER UNDECIDED 42

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

18% 27% 30% 25% 25% 13% 17% 9% 15% 12% 11% 15% 4% 9% 6% 23% 6% 4% 3% 8% 9% 12% 10% 33% 33% 49% 32% 42%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER OPINION OF SAME SEX MARRIAGE

43

Do you support or oppose same-sex marriage?

44

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

17% 67% 16%

SUPPORT OPPOSE UNSURE, NO OPINION

18% 17% 67% 67% 15% 16% MEN WOMEN 8% 13% 39% 84% 72% 36% 8% 15% 25% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

Do you support or oppose same-sex marriage?

17% 67% 16%

SUPPORT OPPOSE UNSURE, NO OPINION 45

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

22% 16% 20% 21% 14% 56% 61% 59% 69% 70% 22% 23% 20% 10% 15% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Would you ever consider voting for a Republican primary candidate that supports same-sex marriage?

46

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

47% 34% 19%

NOT VOTE FOR VOTE FOR UNSURE, NO OPINION

49% 45% 35% 33% 16% 21% MEN WOMEN 67% 44% 25% 21% 36% 55% 12% 20% 21% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

Would you ever consider voting for a Republican primary candidate that supports same-sex marriage?

47% 34% 19%

NOT VOTE FOR VOTE FOR UNSURE, NO OPINION 47

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

41% 41% 47% 43% 51% 30% 48% 43% 38% 29% 28% 12% 10% 19% 20% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER OPINION OF ABORTION POSITION

48

Do you consider yourself to be pro-life or pro-choice?

49

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

67% 24% 9%

PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE UNSURE, NO OPINION

68% 67% 23% 25% 9% 8% MEN WOMEN 86% 71% 34% 9% 18% 59% 4% 11% 7% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

Do you consider yourself to be pro-life or pro-choice?

67% 24% 9%

PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE UNSURE, NO OPINION 50

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

73% 68% 70% 69% 65% 14% 17% 19% 23% 28% 14% 15% 11% 8% 7% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Would you ever consider voting for a Republican primary candidate that is pro- choice?

51

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

47% 36% 17%

NOT VOTE FOR VOTE FOR UNSURE, NO OPINION 48% 45% 37% 36% 14% 19% MEN WOMEN 65% 47% 20% 23% 34% 65% 11% 19% 15% VERY CONSERVATIVE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE

Would you ever consider voting for a Republican primary candidate that is pro- choice?

47% 36% 17%

NOT VOTE FOR VOTE FOR UNSURE, NO OPINION 52

Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

55% 57% 45% 47% 44% 17% 28% 44% 35% 39% 27% 15% 11% 17% 17% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES

303-861-8585 www.MagellanStrategies.com

David Flaherty | Courtney Sievers Ryan Winger