National Survey Common Core State Standards Likely General Election Voters Oversamples of GOP Primary Voters and Swing Voters By: John McLaughlin April 24 th , 2014 On the web www.mclaughlinonline.com
Presentation Outline 1. Methodology 2. Major Findings 3. Common Core Ratings and Analysis 4. Message Testing 5. Political Analysis 6. Media Analysis National - CSS - Common Core 2 April 2014
Methodology This national survey of 1000 likely general election voters was conducted from April 7-13 , 2014. The subsequent oversample conducted to reach 500 GOP primary voters was conducted from April 14 – 17. The subsequent oversample conducted to reach 500 swing voters for state legislature was conducted from April 14-17. All interviews were conducted online; survey invitations were distributed randomly within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a nationwide general election. This poll of 1000 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.0% at a 95% confidence interval. The oversamples of 500 GOP primary voters and 500 swing voters each have an accuracy of +/-4.4% at a 95% confidence interval. National - CSS - Common Core 3 April 2014
Major Findings 1. Common Core is still relatively unknown, undefined and somewhat incorrectly defined. • More than 4 in 5 of all voters, 84%, support assigning schools a letter grade regarding how well they educate students. • A large percentage of voters don’t even know what Common Core State Standards are. • 42% of all voters say they have not seen, read or heard anything about Common Core Standards. This includes 32% among all voters with children under 18, 34% among Republican primary voters and 44% among the November swing voters. • Initially voters have a mixed reaction to Common Core State Standards. • Among all voters 35% approve, 33% disapprove and 32% don't know. • Among Republican primary voters 33% approve, 41% disapprove and 26% don't know. • Among November's swing voters 32% approve, 30% disapprove and 37% don't know. • Among those who approve, 15% say they support “setting goals/standards”, putting “everyone on the same page” 13%, they're “good” 12%, establish “accountability” 10% and “better than before” 8%. • Among those who disapprove, they oppose the standards saying “students are different” 14%, “teaching to the test” 11%, “confusing” 10%, “dumbing down/making students average” 9% and keeping the federal government out of schools, 8%. • This is a decidedly different finding than the anecdotal evidence that Common Core is red- hot at the grassroots level and a virtual litmus test for candidates these days. National - CSS - Common Core 4 April 2014
Major Findings 2. Then in the very next question when Common Core is described to people in simple, neutral language, support for the concept soars to a two-thirds majority. When voters were asked if they approve or disapprove of "Common Core State Standards are simply a set of standards in Math and English which state what a child should know in both subjects by the end of each grade of school they complete. Common Core set expectations for what students should be able to achieve and compare schools from state to state." All voters approve 65%-29%. Republican primary voters approve 59%-35%. Swing voters approve 66%-25%. 3. Similarly, two-thirds of all voters, 64%-23%, are more likely to support a candidate who supports "Having test standards for Math and English at every grade level to measure if students in your state and across the country are achieving minimum levels of education". Among Republican primary voters it's 68%-19% and among swing voters 64%- 23%. If you’re in a race where the general election matters, this is an issue that resonates with women 60%-27% and Hispanics 74%-19%. 4. Similarly, almost six in ten of all voters, 58%-30%, are more likely to support a candidate who supports "Making sure your state utilizes Common Core State Standards for Math and English to ensure that students are adequately prepared for college or get a good job." Among Republican primary voters it's 54%-37% and among swing voters 60%-26%. 5
Major Findings 5. The majority, 57%, prefers a candidate who says that “Common Core State Standards are supported by 75% of the teachers and will help students learn more and be better prepared when they graduate high school” vs. the candidate who says that “they were developed in secret by the Obama administration and are being imposed on kids without input from parents and local school boards,” 26%. Among Republican primary voters it's 48%-36% and among swing voters, 58%-25%. 6. When people learn more about Common Core State Standards popular support increases and support among Republicans is strong. This includes GOP-ers over the age of 55, who are so critical in Republican primaries. Republicans are not as nearly as monolithic as the media portrays. More Likely/Less Likely TOT. Thirty percent of current high school graduates can’t pass the U.S. military entrance exam, which is focused just on basic reading a nd math skills 64/22 and Common Core State Standards are intended to improve this result. According to national polls, more than 75% of teachers support implementing the Common Core State Standards in their schools. 63/22 We need Common Core State Standards because 60% of new jobs in this century will require math and science skills that only 20% of t oday’s 62/24 American workforce possesses. Common Core State Standards preserve local control. They were developed by states and will be implemented by states. Each state retains full 62/25 flexibility to modify or improve them at any time. Common Core Standards will help parents and taxpayers better assess the performance of our schools, so we can hold the education establishment 61/26 accountable for results. Academic standards experts at the conservative Thomas B. Fordham Institute compared the old standards against the new standards and found 60/23 Common Core State Standards are superior to existing standards in 39 states for math and 37 states for English. After hearing these arguments and others against, all voters approve 62%-30%. Republican primary voters approve 58%-36%. Swing voters approve 63%-26%. 6
Major Findings 7. There is dissatisfaction with the state of education these days, and a belief that there is significant room for improvement. When given a choice between implementing Common Core State Standards, or sticking with the way schools are currently being run, the majority of all voters say implement the standards 62%- 26%; among Republican primary voters 59%-32% and among swing voters 63%- 22. CONCLUSION: All the dangers that come from being associated with the national Republican brand – being exclusive, Anglo-only, anti-woman, anti-Hispanic – are in play here and Republicans would be wise to think of this issue in a broader context. The anti-Common Core positions may be inviting in the short-term, but looking to November supporting state standards that elevate school achievement have far more upside. National - CSS - Common Core 7 April 2014
Students often receive letter grades of A, B, C, D or F to grade the quality of their work. Suppose public schools themselves were graded in the same way. What letter grade between A, B, C, D or F would you give the public schools in your community? TOTAL Mean GPA = 2.34 40 35 35 35 30 25 20 13 12 15 6 10 5 0 A B C D F Mean GPA = 2.30 Mean GPA = 2.28 GOP Primary Voters Swing Voters 40 37 45 39 35 40 36 29 35 30 30 25 25 20 15 20 14 15 15 12 10 8 10 5 6 5 5 0 0 A B C D F A B C D F National - CSS - Common Core April 2014 8
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