J Street National Jewish Survey June 2015 Methodology National - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

J Street National Jewish Survey June 2015

Methodology • National survey of 1,000 Jewish adults; margin of error +/- 3.1 percent, conducted May 31-June 3, 2015 • National survey administered by email invitation to web-based panel of 900,000 Americans; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study • Demographic data closely aligns with the demographic data in the 2013 Pew Jewish National Survey GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 1

Key Findings • Iran is not a high priority issue, but most Jews have been following the nuclear negotiations. • Jews express strong support for an agreement with Iran that increases inspections in exchange for economic sanctions relief. – Jewish support is higher than support among the general U.S. population. • Jewish support grows further when provided more details about a final agreement. • Jews have extraordinarily negative opinion of the Republican Party and key leaders. While Netanyahu’s Congressional speech injected partisanship into the Iran debate, this undermines those who want to rally American Jews to oppose an agreement. • Support for a 2-state solution and the U.S. playing an active role to help resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict remains solid. GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 2

Political Environment GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 3

Negative Mood Persists Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 100 90 90 80 66 70 64 61 59 57 56 55 60 54 50 40 46 45 44 43 41 39 30 36 34 20 10 10 0 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 Right Direction Wrong Track GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 4

Majority Approve of President Obama While Holding Very Negative Views of Congress Do you approve or disapprove of the way And what about Congress – do you Barack Obama is handling his job as approve or disapprove of the job Congress president? is doing? 100 100 90 90 80 80 79 70 70 60 60 56 50 50 40 40 44 30 30 20 20 21 10 10 0 0 Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 5

Obama, Clinton, and Democratic Party Rated Much More Favorably Than Republicans Favorability Ratings 100 80 60 40 48 48 47 46 20 20 13 9 7 0 -20 27 39 40 41 -40 53 62 64 -60 68 -80 -100 Barack Hillary The The Jeb John Mitch Benjamin Obama Clinton Democratic Republican Bush Boehner McConnell Netanyahu Party Party Favorable Unfavorable GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 6

Hillary Clinton Holds Large Lead Over Jeb Bush It is a very long way off, but thinking about the election for president in 2016, if the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush, for whom would you vote? 100 90 80 70 68 60 64 50 40 30 30 26 20 10 10 2 0 Vote Allocated* Vote *Undecided voters allocated by which candidate Hillary Clinton Jeb Bush Undecided they rated more favorably – if still tied, then by party identification GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 7

Iran Nuclear Negotiations GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 8

Economy and ISIS Seen As Top Priorities; Few People Prioritize Israel and Iran Below is a list of concerns that people have. Which one of these do you think President Obama and Congress should make their most important priority / second most important priority? The economy 27 45 18 29 ISIS The deficit and government spending 12 25 Health care 9 22 Social Security and Medicare 9 21 Education 8 17 The environment 7 14 Taxes 3 8 3 7 Immigration Most Important Israel 3 7 Iran 2 6 Combined Most / 2nd Most Important 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 9

Jews Are Paying Attention to Iran Negotiations, Unchanged From November 2014 As you may know, the United States, Britain, Germany, France, China, and Russia last year reached a first step agreement with Iran to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for modest relief from sanctions. How much have you heard about this agreement? 70 60 50 48 45 40 30 30 25 20 22 16 10 9 6 0 A great deal of Some information Not much information No information at all information June 2015 November 2014 GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 10

Majority of Jews Favor an Agreement, Higher Levels of Support Than the General Public 100 As you may know, the U.S. and other countries 90 have imposed strict economic sanctions against Iran while that country has nuclear 80 facilities which could eventually allow it to 70 produce its own nuclear weapons. 60 Do you favor or oppose an agreement that 59 50 53 would ease some of those economic sanctions and, in exchange, require Iran to 40 43 41 accept major restrictions on its nuclear 30 program, but not end it completely, and submit to greater international inspection 20 of its nuclear facilities? 10 0 J Street - CNN/ORC - June 2015 April 2015 Jewish Voters Adults Nationwide Nationwide Favor Oppose GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 11

Agreement Support by Denomination, Party ID, and Age 100 90 80 70 69 68 60 63 61 61 59 58 55 50 53 51 49 47 45 40 42 41 39 39 37 30 32 31 20 10 0 Reform No Con- Orthodox Dem. Ind. Rep. Under Age Age 65+ Particular servative Age 40 40 to 64 Denom. Favor Oppose GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 12

When Provided More Details, Support Grows 100 Now, imagine that the U.S., Britain, Germany, 90 France, China, Russia, and Iran reach a final agreement that places significant limits on 80 Iran's nuclear program to prevent Iran from 78 developing a nuclear weapon. 70 60 The agreement imposes intrusive inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities by international 50 nuclear experts, and it caps the level at which 40 Iran can enrich uranium to far below what is necessary to make a nuclear weapon. In 30 exchange for limiting its nuclear program and agreeing to intrusive inspections, Iran would 26 20 22 receive phased relief from U.S. and international economic sanctions, as Iran 10 complies with the terms of the agreement. 8 0 Support Oppose Would you support or oppose this Strongly support Total Support agreement? Strongly oppose Total Oppose GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 13

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 14

Overwhelming Support for the U.S. Playing an Active Role in Resolving the Arab-Israeli Conflict Now, something different. Do you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict? 100 90 80 84 70 60 50 40 37 30 20 16 10 4 0 Support Oppose Strongly Support Total Support Strongly Oppose Total Oppose GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 15

Support for Public Disagreement With Both Parties; Opposition When Israel Is Singled Out (SPLIT) Would you support or oppose the (SPLIT) Would you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab- helping the parties to resolve the Arab- Israeli conflict if it meant the United States Israeli conflict if it meant the United States publicly stating its disagreements with publicly stating its disagreements with both the Israelis and the Arabs? Israel? 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 70 60 60 50 50 54 40 40 46 30 30 32 30 20 20 24 10 10 16 7 0 0 Support Oppose Support Oppose Strongly Support Total Support Strongly Oppose Total Oppose GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 16

Support for Exerting Pressure on Both Parties; Opposition When Israel Is Singled Out (SPLIT) Would you support or oppose the (SPLIT) Would you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab- helping the parties to resolve the Arab- Israeli conflict if it meant the United States Israeli conflict if it meant the United States exerting pressure on both the Israelis and exerting pressure on Israel to make the Arabs to make the compromises necessary compromises necessary to achieve peace? to achieve peace? 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 69 60 60 50 50 56 40 40 44 30 30 31 20 20 24 24 10 10 12 8 0 0 Support Oppose Support Oppose Strongly Support Total Support Strongly Oppose Total Oppose GBA Strategies – June 2015 Jewish National Survey Figure 17