COLORADO REPUBLICAN SURVEY
January 30th – 31st and February 4th, 2019
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COLORADO REPUBLICAN SURVEY January 30 th 31 st and February 4 th , - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
1 COLORADO REPUBLICAN SURVEY January 30 th 31 st and February 4 th , 2019 2 Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019 Methodology Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 622n telephone survey of
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ØMagellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a
622n telephone survey of registered Republican voters in the state of Colorado.
ØThe interviews were conducted from January 30th – 31st and
February 4th, 2019.
ØThe overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.93% at the 95%
confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population.
ØThe survey results were weighted based upon Republican
voter registration demographics.
ØDavid Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project,
and Courtney Sievers was the project director.
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Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
19% 13% 18% 22% 28%
39% 25% 18% 17% 1%
Suburban Area Small Town Big City Rural Area Refused
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51% 49% Male Female
Less than $50,000 $51,000 - $75,000 $76,000 - $125,000 More than $126,000 Refused
23% 20% 26% 18% 13%
Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Trump Republican Traditional Republican Other Republican No Opinion
29% 37% 28% 6% Among the different groups of voters within the Republican Party, which of the following best describes the kind of Republican you consider yourself to be?
Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Colorado Congressional Districts
3 4 2 5 6 7 1
Weld Moffat Mesa Baca Park Routt Yuma Las Animas Garfield Larimer Lincoln Pueblo Gunnison Bent Saguache Elbert Grand Eagle Logan Rio Blanco Kiowa El Paso Montrose Otero Delta Washington La Plata Kit Carson Jackson Prowers Fremont Cheyenne Morgan Montezuma Adams Pitkin Huerfano Costilla Conejos Archuleta Dolores Chaffee Hinsdale Mineral San Miguel Custer Teller Douglas Crowley Boulder Phillips Ouray Arapahoe Alamosa Lake Rio Grande Sedgwick Jefferson Summit San Juan Clear Creek Gilpin Denver Broomfield
Legend
Congressional District
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 7 6 1 4 4
Adams Jefferson Boulder Denver Weld Gilpin Arapahoe Broomfield Clear Creek
Denver Metro Area Inset
Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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ØCurrently, a near majority of Republican voters are focused on solving one
problem: immigration. That is the top issue among 48% of Republican primary voters and 40% of non-primary voters. No other issue comes close to registering as such a high priority in this survey. It is quite clear that the government shutdown was a major influence on Republican opinions.
ØPresident Trump’s job approval and image rating could not be any stronger
among Colorado Republicans, with 90% approving of the job he is doing and 72% strongly approving. He is giving Republican voters what they want, and they love him for it.
ØRepublicans strongly approve of the job Donald Trump is doing for a number
illegal immigration, improving the economy, creating jobs and not acting like a typical politician. Many respondents express a loyalty toward him because they believe he sincerely cares about all Americans, rich or poor, white or minority, and that he is fighting for them personally.
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Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
ØEighty-seven percent of respondents think President Trump’s
economic program and policies are making the economy better. 88% support building a wall along the border of Mexico and 81% supported his decision to shut down the government in order to get funding for the wall.
ØAny thought of a primary challenge to Donald Trump at this time
would be futile. Among all respondents, 78% want Donald Trump to be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2020 and only 17% prefer “someone else”.
ØThe overwhelming belief regarding why Republican candidates lost
in 2018 was because of a migration of liberal and Democratic voters from other states to Colorado.
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Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
ØRepublican voters overwhelmingly prefer uncompromising,
conservative candidates (61%) to moderate candidates who are more willing to work with Democrats to get things done (33%).
ØSixty-two percent of Republican voters oppose state funded, full-
day kindergarten regardless of the cost, while 34% support it.
ØSixty percent of Republicans support the proposed “Red Flag”
gun control legislation and 33% oppose it.
ØThere are many different opinions regarding what Republicans
should do to be more successful in the 2020 election cycle. Many respondents believe the right approach is to educate voters about the economic accomplishments of the Trump Administration and stand with the President.
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Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Major Themes Immigration Cost of Healthcare Homelessness Effects of Marijuana
“Drug abuse. Illegal aliens. Worthless politicians.”
“I would have to say immigration for one thing. We have to get this thing right because this is ridiculous. Some of the stuff happening with abortion is
the stuff I am seeing on TV is absolutely disgusting.”
“The illegal immigrants and homelessness.”
“Recreational marijuana, and the crap that is developing with crime and everything that goes with it. It’s creating a lot of issues. ”
Being as specific as possible, please tell me what you think the most important issue or problem is in your community that our elected officials should be addressing the most.
“Building the wall so the immigrant problem can be taken care of. ”
“We need to be able to help
he’s doing. Everyone seems to be going against him. So, I think we should all make compromises to help our
“There’s two. Number one, immigration and number two is mental health throughout the United States. ”
“That would probably be the safety of our neighborhood and roads. ”
“There aren’t any low-cost rental properties and there aren’t enough jobs. ”
Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS KEEPING LID ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING INVESTING ROADS TRANSPORTATION CREATING JOBS GROWING ECONOMY IMPROVING PUBLIC EDUCATION AFFORDABLE HOUSING ADDRESSING PROBLEMS LEGALIZING MARIJUANA REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE UNSURE REFUSED
44% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 6% 4% 2%
Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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MEN WOMEN 48% 41% 13% 10% 13% 8% 8% 9% 6% 10% 3% 10% 4% 8% 4% 4% 2% 1% ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS KEEPING LID ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING INVESTING ROADS TRANSPORTATION CREATING JOBS GROWING ECONOMY IMPROVING PUBLIC EDUCATION AFFORDABLE HOUSING ADDRESSING PROBLEMS LEGALIZING MARIJUANA REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE UNSURE REFUSED Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN 42% 63% 30% 12% 9% 13% 10% 8% 13% 9% 5% 13% 6% 4% 14% 9% 5% 5% 8% 4% 3% 4% 2% 7% 1% 3% ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS KEEPING LID ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING INVESTING ROADS TRANSPORTATION CREATING JOBS GROWING ECONOMY IMPROVING PUBLIC EDUCATION AFFORDABLE HOUSING ADDRESSING PROBLEMS LEGALIZING MARIJUANA REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE UNSURE REFUSED Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 PLUS 42% 25% 46% 48% 50% 13% 15% 9% 8% 13% 10% 8% 11% 15% 8% 9% 14% 12% 7% 5% 9% 17% 7% 5% 7% 10% 6% 2% 7% 6% 3% 11% 4% 5% 7% 3% 3% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS KEEPING LID ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING INVESTING ROADS TRANSPORTATION CREATING JOBS GROWING ECONOMY IMPROVING PUBLIC EDUCATION AFFORDABLE HOUSING ADDRESSING PROBLEMS LEGALIZING MARIJUANA REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE UNSURE REFUSED Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07 36% 44% 39% 51% 41% 41% 52% 11% 8% 13% 7% 12% 16% 12% 14% 8% 2% 16% 15% 8% 7% 14% 4% 15% 7% 4% 13% 5% 8% 13% 12% 5% 11% 3% 4% 3% 10% 5% 4% 8% 6% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 2% 5% 5% 5% 1% 3% 7% 4% 1% 1% 2% 1% 4% ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS KEEPING LID ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING INVESTING ROADS TRANSPORTATION CREATING JOBS GROWING ECONOMY IMPROVING PUBLIC EDUCATION AFFORDABLE HOUSING ADDRESSING PROBLEMS LEGALIZING MARIJUANA REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE UNSURE REFUSED Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Very Favorable 68% Somewhat Favorable 20% Very Unfavorable 7% Somewhat Unfavorable 4%
88% 11% 1%
TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED
90% 98% 74% 10% 24% 2% 1% 1% TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Strongly Approve 72% Somewhat Approve 18% Strongly Disapprove 6% Somewhat Disapprove 3%
90% 9% 1%
TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE REFUSED
92% 100% 78% 8% 21% 2% TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Major Themes Keeping Campaign Promises Stance on Illegal Immigration Fighting for Jobs Improving Economy Delivering What He Promised
“Donald Trump has lowered our taxes and we feel it for those of us who are on low
back to this country and people are working again when hundreds and thousands were not working. Donald Trump has increased our military and protected us. Donald Trump wants good schools and he wants good healthcare. He’s not responsible for what Congress does and Donald Trump really cares about the American people, not like the others in Congress and not like what we have in Colorado now. ”
“President Trump is doing an incredible job for this country, unlike the last President who ruined everything for the last 8 years. President Trump is making America great again, he is increasing jobs for everyone, he is helping everyone out. He is making people want to be Americans again. ”
“I approve of Donald Trump because has kept his word on everything he has said he would do for our country. ”
“He is trying to get things that are important done and stuff that will help the United States in general, not just the rich or the
things done to help people and get the poor and the middle class to where they have a change in
“He is governing with conservative principles. He is trying to reach out to both sides of the aisle. Trying to uphold the Constitution of the U.S. as it is written. Not succumbing to the mob rule, populist mentality. ”
“He is for America. He is against the immigration of the illegal coming in. They need to go away, we are suffering day by day. ”
“He has helped the
black and Hispanic minorities with getting jobs. He has certainly helped everybody as far as I can see. ”
Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Major Themes Liberal, Democratic Leaning Voters Moving into CO Voters Being Attracted to “Free Stuff” Negative Media Coverage
“Too many liberals and too many people wanting a free handout instead of working for a living. Too many people wanting big government ”
“I think due to the growth in Denver a large part of the people that have moved here have come from a very liberal state and have brought their politics with them. ”
“It was because of the influx of
Colorado, and that the government is taking a more active role or bigger role in terms regulation of everyday lives. ”
As you may know, Republicans suffered historical losses in the 2018 general election here in Colorado. In your own words, being as descriptive as possible, please tell me why you think that happened.
“I guess it was probably because more people in California are moving here and we are sort of a blue state and combined with Trump not being completely strong in his campaign. I think he lost momentum in the last 2 years on the specific issue of immigration. ”
“Too much influx from California and other liberal states, and a very poor job by Republicans. ”
“I think there’s been a lot of lies spread about Republicans and about Trump and I think Colorado is very liberal. I think that people don’t listen, they just believe what they want to believe. They don’t check out the facts. There are so many people against President Trump because he is a businessman, and not a politician. ”
Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Major Themes Back the President Shouldn’t Compromise Take a Stance, Stand on their Principles Educate Voters on Trump Policies
“I think they should support the President and fight for what America should be and take a stance instead of being cowards.”
“I think they need to articulate and verbalize Republican values, support the things that Donald Trump has done that supports Republican values and Western values. And be proactive, pushing, and organizing, and being vocal. And not being pushed around by the other plus. Be pleasant and be positive, but be assertive at the same time. ”
“They need to support the President and when they get to Washington they need to keep their promises about supporting the President. We're not going to put up with politicians who lie to us anymore.”
“They should be truthful and honest. Majority of them are lying anyway. They should focus on the problems, like abortion. They should not flip-flop when they stand on some issues, like military and abortion.”
“They need to get out and let their voices be heard and not let the media quiet
“They should stick to their guns and stick to the issues, and do what they say they are going to do. ”
“It is to have a backbone. I can't be specific. They need to have a backbone.”
Town “Support our President in addressing the illegal immigration issue in generating jobs and working for the better of the
Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Thinking now about the kind of Republican candidates that you prefer to support… Do you prefer Republican candidates who are strong fiscal and social conservatives that rarely compromise their values to work with Democrats across the aisle to get things done... OR Do you prefer Republican candidates who are more moderate in their political views, and are willing to compromise and work with Democrats across the aisle to get things done?
Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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61% 33% 6%
CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATES MODERATE CANDIDATES UNSURE REFUSED
64% 59% 32% 33% 4% 8% MEN WOMEN 63% 79% 41% 31% 18% 52% 5% 3% 7% TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
61% 33% 6%
CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATES MODERATE CANDIDATES UNSURE REFUSED 28
59% 52% 61% 65% 66% 39% 40% 34% 29% 26% 2% 8% 5% 6% 8% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 PLUS Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
61% 33% 6%
CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATES MODERATE CANDIDATES UNSURE REFUSED 29
32% 56% 65% 69% 69% 57% 61% 58% 37% 32% 26% 27% 34% 27% 9% 7% 2% 4% 3% 9% 12% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07 Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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ECONOMEY BETTER ECONOMY WORSE NO REAL EFFECT UNSURE REFUSED
Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Strongly Support 80% Somewhat Support 8% Strongly Oppose 8% Somewhat Oppose 3%
88% 11% 1%
TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED
91% 99% 72% 8% 1% 25% 1% 1% 3% TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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81% 17% 2%
TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED
83% 96% 61% 14% 3% 36% 3% 1% 3% 1% TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN Strongly Support 63% Somewhat Support 18% Strongly Oppose 11% Somewhat Oppose 6% Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Thinking ahead to the 2020 Presidential primaries next year. Do you want Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President or would prefer someone else to be the Republican nominee?
78% 17% 5% DONALD TRUMP SOMEONE ELSE UNSURE UNDECIDED REFUSED
78% 98% 55% 16% 36% 6% 2% 8% TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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Strongly Support 15% Somewhat Support 19% Strongly Oppose 50% Somewhat Oppose 12%
34% 62% 4% TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED
29% 39% 67% 56% 4% 5% MEN WOMEN 38% 24% 39% 59% 72% 54% 4% 4% 7% TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
34% 62% 4%
TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 39
Strongly Support 15% Somewhat Support 19% Strongly Oppose 50% Somewhat Oppose 12% 34% 47% 33% 27% 33% 64% 47% 64% 69% 61% 3% 6% 3% 5% 6% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 PLUS Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
34% 62% 4%
TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 40
Strongly Support 15% Somewhat Support 19% Strongly Oppose 50% Somewhat Oppose 12% 31% 46% 31% 32% 34% 34% 26% 62% 47% 65% 65% 63% 59% 70% 6% 7% 4% 3% 3% 6% 4% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07 Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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During the state legislative session last year, a bill was introduced called the “Red Flag” law. The Red Flag law allows a judge to take guns temporarily from someone who is determined to be a significant risk to themselves or others, based
Strongly Support 29% Somewhat Support 31% Strongly Oppose 22% Somewhat Oppose 11%
60% 33% 7%
TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED
57% 64% 38% 28% 5% 9% MEN WOMEN 63% 57% 61% 31% 36% 35% 6% 7% 5% TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
During the state legislative session last year, a bill was introduced called the “Red Flag” law. The Red Flag law allows a judge to take guns temporarily from someone who is determined to be a significant risk to themselves or others, based
60% 33% 7%
TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 43
Strongly Support 29% Somewhat Support 31% Strongly Oppose 22% Somewhat Oppose 11% 57% 66% 56% 59% 62% 42% 30% 37% 36% 25% 2% 3% 7% 5% 12% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 PLUS Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
During the state legislative session last year, a bill was introduced called the “Red Flag” law. The Red Flag law allows a judge to take guns temporarily from someone who is determined to be a significant risk to themselves or others, based
60% 33% 7%
TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 44
Strongly Support 29% Somewhat Support 31% Strongly Oppose 22% Somewhat Oppose 11% 68% 58% 54% 61% 54% 70% 61% 24% 34% 36% 33% 39% 30% 29% 8% 8% 10% 6% 6% 8% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07 Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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58% 30% 10% 1% 1%
VERY CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL DON'T KNOW REFUSED
63% 54% 28% 31% 8% 12% 1% 1% 3% MEN WOMEN 62% 70% 43% 31% 24% 36% 6% 5% 18%2% 1% 1% TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
58% 30% 10% 1% 1%
VERY CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL DON'T KNOW REFUSED 47
60% 57% 62% 55% 59% 30% 28% 27% 33% 29% 10% 13% 10% 8% 8% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 PLUS Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
58% 30% 10% 1% 1%
VERY CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL DON'T KNOW REFUSED 48
56% 57% 57% 58% 66% 57% 56% 38% 25% 33% 32% 27% 29% 24% 6% 14% 7% 8% 6% 13% 15% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07 Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
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55% 22% 16% 6% 1%
VERY CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL DON'T KNOW REFUSED
52% 59% 26% 19% 15% 16% 7% 6% 1% 1% MEN WOMEN 59% 65% 41% 26% 21% 18% 11% 9% 30% 4% 3% 12% 1% 2% TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN TRUMP REPUBLICAN OTHER REPUBLICAN Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
55% 22% 16% 6% 1%
VERY CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL DON'T KNOW REFUSED 51
46% 50% 50% 63% 61% 25% 17% 26% 20% 22% 16% 29% 17% 11% 11% 12% 5% 6% 4% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 PLUS Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019
55% 22% 16% 6% 1%
VERY CONSERVATIVE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL DON'T KNOW REFUSED 52
44% 47% 61% 61% 60% 48% 56% 17% 22% 28% 20% 20% 27% 19% 25% 19% 7% 15% 13% 19% 17% 12% 11% 4% 4% 5% 6% 5% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07 Colorado Republican Survey, 622n, +/-3.93%, Jan/Feb 2019