Republic of Kenya National Opinion Poll June 15-18, 2006 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Republic of Kenya National Opinion Poll

June 15-18, 2006

International Republican Institute Strategic Public Relations and Research

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INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY

• This nationwide opinion survey was conducted from

June 15-18, 2006.

• 3,001 Kenyan citizens aged 18 and above were

interviewed face-to-face on a household basis.

• The margin of error does not exceed +/- 2 percent.
• The survey was carried out on behalf of the International

Republican Institute (IRI).

• The study was designed, coordinated and analyzed by

Strategic Public Relations and Research (SPRR), in consultation with IRI’s Nairobi office. All fieldwork was carried out by SPRR.

• For more detailed methodology, please contact Peter

Oriare, Strategic Public Relations and Research, (Tel: 254-20-601005; email: spr@africaonline.co.ke)

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Respondents’ Demographic Information

Number of respondents: 3,001 Sex Male 54.4% Female 45.6% Age Group 18-25 33.2% 26-35 27.6% 36-45 18.4% 46-55 11.2% 56+ 9.4% Don’t Know 0.3% Education Level No formal education 3.7% Primary 22.9% Secondary 36.6% Tertiary 25.9% University 8.1% Post Graduate 2.1% Monthly Income Less than Kshs 5,000 30.7% 5,001-10,000 23.9% 10,001-20,000 16.6% 20,001-30,000 9.0% 30,001-40,000 4.9% 40,001-50,000 2.7% 50,001-150,000 2.3% More than 150,000 0.7% Don’t Know 3.1% Refused to Answer 6.1% Location Urban 42.4% Rural 57.6%

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Respondents’ Demographic Information

Employment Status Full time formal employment 18.1% Full time informal employment 27.1% Part time formal employment 5.4% Part time informal employment 11.1% Unemployed 26.1% Student 7.5% Retired 4.4% No Response 0.3% Religion Catholic 32.9% Protestant 55.9% Traditionalist 2.2% Muslim 6.8% Hindu 0.2% Others 1.4% No Response 0.8% Occupation Medical 2.9% Education 0.2% Administration 2.8% Civic Leader 0.2% Housewife 4.5% Farmer 18.2% Student 6.2% Business 18.8% Professional 18.8% Civil Servant 1.4% Clergy 0.4% Unemployed 3.7% Unskilled Laborer 13.9% Retired 1.0% House Help 1.1% No Response 6.1%

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VIEWS ON THE STATE OF THE COUNTRY AND THE GOVERNMENT

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Overall, would you say that the country is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?

46.5 49.8 3.1 0.7 10 20 30 40 50 60 Right Direction Wrong Direction Don't Know No Response

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Do you approve or disapprove of the job the government has done running the country since the 2002 election?

18.4 37.3 11.5 15.9 16.2 0.5 0.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Neither Approve Nor Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Don't Know No Response

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Has the government done well or done poorly in fulfilling its election promises from 2002?

47.7 13.3 38.3 0.5 0.2 10 20 30 40 50 60

Well Neither Well nor Poorly Poorly Don't Know No Response

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Would you say the condition of Kenya’s economy is good or bad?

38.5 17.3 43.2 1 0.1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Good Neither Good nor Bad Bad Don't know No Response

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Would you say that your personal economic condition has gotten better, stayed the same or gotten worse over the past five years?

21.5 37.2 39.2 1 1.1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Gotten Better Stayed the Same Gotten Worse Don't Know No Response

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What is the most important issue the Kenyan government should address?

0.9 4.5 1.3 1.4 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.7 9.3 9.8 12.4 12.7 30.6 10 20 30 40

No Response Others Political Wrangles Constitutional Review HIV/AIDS, other Health Issues Infrastructure Education Agricultural Growth Security Corruption Economic Recovery Poverty Reduction Creating Employment

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VIEWS ON THE 2007 GENERAL ELECTION

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Are you likely or unlikely to vote in the 2007 general election?

90.5 2.9 5.7 0.9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Likely Neither likely nor Unlikely Unlikely Don't Know

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Which one of the following methods do you think political parties should use to nominate their presidential candidates?

59 32 6 0.3 2.4 0.4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Direct voting by all party members Delegate system Party chairman is automatically the candidate Others Don't know No Response

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Would the people you know be likely or unlikely to vote for a female candidate for president?

33.7 7.4 56.3 2.4 0.3 10 20 30 40 50 60

Likely Neither Likely nor Unlikely Unlikely Don't know No Response

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Would voters in your constituency be likely or unlikely to vote for a female candidate for parliament?

40.3 8.6 48.1 2.5 0.4 10 20 30 40 50 60

Likely Neither Likely nor Unlikely Unlikely Don't know No Response

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What is the single most important quality a parliamentary candidate should have?

1.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.8 3 7.1 7.3 8.9 30.8 34.4 10 20 30 40

No Response Others Patriotic Not Tribalistic God-fearing Age Not Selfish Popular Education/Wisdom Development Record Transparent/Accountable

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VIEWS ON THE 9TH PARLIAMENT

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Do you approve or disapprove of the current parliament’s performance since the 2002 election?

7.7 31.9 11.5 21.9 25.9 0.8 0.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Neither Approve Nor Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Don't Know No Response

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Do you approve or disapprove of your own member of parliament’s performance since the 2002 election?

16.4 27.5 9.6 14 30 1.5 1.1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Stongly Approve Somewhat Approve Neither Approve Nor Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Don't Know No Response

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Do you think your member of parliament deserves to be re-elected?

38.7 54.2 4.1 3 10 20 30 40 50 60

Yes No Don't Know No Response

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When I say “coalition” I mean two or more political parties coming together for a common cause. Do you support or oppose such coalitions?

73.2 24.6 1.5 0.7 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Support Oppose Don't Know No Response

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VIEWS ON CORRUPTION

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Would you say that corruption has increased, decreased or remained the same since the 2002 election?

52.4 34.3 12 1.1 0.2 10 20 30 40 50 60

Increased Decreased Remained the Same Don't Know No Response

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Do you think that the government is committed to the fight against corruption in Kenya?

44.4 51.5 3.7 0.5 10 20 30 40 50 60

Yes No Don't Know No Response

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Now I’m going to read you a list of corruption cases that have been in the news recently. For each of them, I would like you to tell me whether the government is likely or unlikely to deal conclusively with them.

Case Likely Unlikely Don’t Know No Response Goldenberg 23.3 67.8 8.1 0.8 Anglo Leasing 19.8 70.9 8.3 0.9 Ndungu Report on Land Use 18.9 64.7 14.8 1.6 The Armenian (Artur) Brothers Issue 15.6 69.7 13.0 1.7

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VIEWS ON THE MEDIA AND FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION

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Overall, would you say that the Kenyan media is free or not free to accurately report news?

78.6 4 16 1.5 0.1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Free Neither free Nor not Free Not Free Don't Know No Response

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Overall, would you say that Kenyans are free or not free to openly express their political opinions?

85.5 3 10.6 0.7 0.1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Free Neither Free nor Not Free Not Free Don't Know No Response

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Would you say that Kenyans’ freedom of expression has increased, decreased or remained the same since the 2002 elections ?

81.5 8.7 8.3 1.4 0.2 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Increased Decreased Remained the same Don't Know No Response

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Which of the following statements do most you agree with?

0.5 4.6 5.2 30.2 59.4 20 40 60 80

No Response Don’t Know The government is always justified in raiding a media house The government is sometimes justified in raiding a media house The government is never justified in raiding a media house

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Where do you get most of your news?

1.1 0.4 1 10.2 23.8 63.2 20 40 60 80

No Response Others Neighbors and Friends Newspaper Television Radio

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VIEWS ON THE CONSTITUENCY DEVELOPMENT FUND (CDF)

In 2003, the Kenyan Parliament established the CDF. It seeks to decentralize development planning by devoting a percentage of the national budget to constituency-level development projects, to be directed by local committees. However, critics have pointed out that the member of parliament representing each constituency wields a great deal of influence over the makeup and decisions of the committee, and some members have been accused of using the CDF as a tool for political and financial advancement.

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Have you ever heard or read about the CDF?

88.8 10.6 0.6 0.4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Yes No Don't Know No Response

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Would you say that the CDF program in your constituency is managed in an open way?

N = 2,654 28.5 62.6 7.9 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Yes No Don't Know No Response

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Has the impact of CDF programme in your constituency been large or small?

N = 2,654

31.9 14.6 46.9 5.8 0.8 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Large Neither large nor small Small Don't know No Response

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Which of the following would you most trust to manage the CDF?

N = 2,654

0.5 1.3 2 4.9 10.6 20.7 60 20 40 60 80

No Response Don't Know Others District Commisioner Local MP Local religious leaders A committee elected by constituents

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Should the amount of CDF funds be increased, decreased or remain the same?

N = 2,654

78.3 3.1 14 0.8 12.4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Increased Decreased Remain the same Don't know No response