Key findings from a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Nevada, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Key findings from a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Nevada, with 100 cell phone interviews, conducted September 19-20, 2012.

Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present the key findings of a statewide telephone survey conducted in Nevada. The survey was completed September 19-20, 2012, among 500 likely voters, with 100 cell phone interviews, and has a margin

• f error of +4.38%.

Glen Bolger was the principal researcher on this

• project. Jim Hobart was the project director, and

Court Hall provided analytical support.

11% 17% 24% 18% 33% 37% 80% 76% 69% 77% 60% 54% 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Right Direction Wrong Track

State Mood Trend

While Nevadans continue to be pessimistic, their mood about the state’s direction has improved.

“Would you say things in Nevada are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?”

34% 40% 42% 44% 28% 42% 41% 43% 2/10 9/10 2/12 9/12 Republican Democrat

“If the election for State Legislature were being held today, for whom would you vote…the Republican candidate OR the Democratic candidate?”

The generic ballot remains tied.

47% 50% 63% 62% 26% 33% 25% 24% 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Total Approve Total Disapprove

Sandoval Approval Trend

Voters continue to approve of the Governor’s job performance.

“Do you approve or disapprove of the job Brian Sandoval is doing as Governor?”

Strongly Approve: 23% Strongly Disapprove: 10%

40% 53% 41% 51% 45% 51% 39% 52% 41% 48% 2/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Yes, Understands the Problems Facing People Like Yourself No, Does Not Understand the Problems Facing People Like Yourself

“Do you think the Governor understands the problems facing people like yourself, or do you think he does not understand the problems facing people like yourself?”

Voters are divided over whether the Governor understands the problems facing people like them.

*2/10 poll taken while Jim Gibbons was Governor ^Split Sample (N=251)

37% 37% 31% 31% 38% 33% 58% 56% 60% 65% 58% 62% 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Yes, Understands the Problems Facing People Like Yourself No, Does Not Understand the Problems Facing People Like Yourself

“Do you think your state legislators understand the problems facing people like yourself, or do you think they do not understand the problems facing people like yourself?”

A large majority of Nevada voters continue to believe their State Legislators do not understand their problems.

^Split Sample (N=250)

91% 90% 79% 79% 91% 82% 67% 68% 46% 78% Base GOP (23%) Soft GOP (13%) Independent (22%) Soft Democrat (13%) Base Democrat (28%) 8-10 (High) 10 (Very High)

Base GOPers and base Democrats are most interested in the upcoming election.

“And how interested are you in the election for such offices as President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Congress? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten.”

By Party

1% 1% 2% 3% 7% 8% 9% 10% 12% 21% 32% 41% 52%

None of These Don't Know Transportation/Roads/Gridlock Moral Values Taxes Health Care Illegal Immigration Gas & Energy Prices State Budget & Spending Housing/Home Foreclosures Education The Economy Jobs

Nevadans say the economy, jobs and education should be the top issues for the Governor and State Legislature.

Combined Choices

2/12 9/12 1% 1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 11% 13% 14% 16% 36% 45% 48%

Transportation/Roads/Gridlock None of These Don't Know Moral Values Gas & Energy Prices Taxes Health Care Illegal Immigration State Budget & Spending Housing/Home Foreclosures Education The Economy Jobs

“Which ONE of the following issues should be the top priority of Nevada’s Governor and State Legislature? And which of the following is the NEXT most important priority?”

By Party

Jobs and the economy are the top issues for Independents.

Base GOP (23%)

The Economy (53%) Jobs (49%) Illegal Immigration (22%) State Budget & Spending (21%)

Soft GOP (13%)

The Economy (53%) Jobs (48%) Education (26%) Housing/Home Foreclosures (18%)

Soft Democrat (13%)

The Economy (60%) Jobs (49%) Education (33%) Housing/Home Foreclosures (19%)

Base Democrat (28%)

Education (63%) Jobs (41%) The Economy (27%) Health Care (19%)

Independent (22%)

Jobs (56%) The Economy (44%) Education (28%) Housing/Home Foreclosures (17%)

Definitely Romney/ Ryan 41% Probably Romney/ Ryan 5% Probably Obama/ Biden 8% Definitely Obama/ Biden 39% Goode/ Clymer 1% Johnson/ Gray 1% None of the Above 3% Undecided 2%

The Presidential race is tied.

“If the election for President were being held today, for whom would you vote… Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republicans; Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats; Virgil Goode and Jim Clymer, Independent American; Gary Johnson and James Gray, Libertarians; or None of the Above?”

Total Romney/Ryan: 46% Total Obama/Biden: 46%* *Denotes Rounding

Romney leads among Independents.

96% 78% 44% 24% 3% 3% 17% 36% 66% 96% Base GOP (23%) Soft GOP (13%) Independent (22%) Soft Democrat (13%) Base Democrat (28%) Total Romney/Ryan Total Obama/Biden

Romney vs. Obama Ballot by Party

+93% +8%

• 42%
• 93%

+61%

Romney leads big among older men and seniors, while Obama leads among younger voters.

43% 60% 36% 47% 59% 53% 36% 49% 46% 34% Men 18-49 (28%) Men 50+ (19%) Women 18-49 (21%) Women 50+ (29%) 65+ (21%) Total Romney/Ryan Total Obama/Biden

Romney vs. Obama Ballot by Gender/Age + Seniors

• 10%
• 13%

+1% +25% +24%

Romney leads in Washoe County and the rural parts

• f the state, while Obama leads in Clark County.

41% 55% 60% 51% 40% 34% Clark (67%) Washoe (20%) Rural (14%) Total Romney/Ryan Total Obama/Biden

Romney vs. Obama Ballot by Region

• 10%

+15% +26%

Heller continues to lead on the Senate ballot.

48% 47%* 44% 42% 44% 39%

9/11 2/12 9/12

Intensity Definitely Heller: 37% Definitely Berkley: 32%

Heller: Berkley:

“If the election for U.S. Senate were being held today, for whom would you vote… Dean Heller, Republican; Shelley Berkley, Democrat; David VanderBeek, Independent American;

• r None of the Above?”

*Denotes Rounding

Heller vs. Berkley Ballot Trend by Party

Heller continues to lead among Independents.

90% 74% 40% 24% 5% 3% 13% 29% 53% 82% Base GOP (23%) Soft GOP (13%) Independent (22%) Soft Democrat (13%) Base Democrat (28%) Total Heller Total Berkley 90% 70% 51% 25% 11% 4% 16% 34% 64% 87%

• 39%

+17% +54%

• 76%

+86%

• 29%

+11% +61%

• 77%

+87%

2/12 9/12

Heller vs. Berkley Ballot Trend by Gender/Age + Seniors

Seniors are now firmly behind Heller. Younger voters are split.

42% 55% 36% 45% 53% 42% 33% 37% 40% 36% Men 18-49 (28%) Men 50+ (19%) Women 18-49 (21%) Women 50+ (29%) 65+ (21%) Total Heller Total Berkley 49% 56% 38% 45% 47% 39% 41% 53% 46% 48%

• 1%
• 15%

+15%

• 1%

+10% +5%

• 1%

+22% +17% 0%

2/12 9/12

37% 58% 57% 45% 26% 25% Clark (67%) Washoe (20%) Rural (14%) Total Heller Total Berkley 45% 47% 61% 46% 49% 27%

• 2%

+34%

• 1%

+32% +32%

• 8%

Heller vs. Berkley Ballot Trend by Region

Heller now leads big in Washoe County; his support in Clark County has dropped since February.

2/12 9/12

Much More Likely for Incumbent 14% Somewhat More Likely for Incumbent 15% Somwhat More Likely for Someone New 21% Much More Likely for Someone New 18% Depends/ Don't Know 30% Refused 2%

Swing voters are looking for someone new, while base voters are more supportive of incumbents.

Overall “Thinking about the state and local elections this November, are you more likely to vote for the incumbent, or more likely to vote for someone new?”

Total Someone New: 39% Total Incumbent: 29% *Denotes Rounding 33% 52% 54% 45% 25% 27% 19% 21% 21% 47% Base GOP (23%) Soft GOP (13%) Independent (22%) Soft Democrat (13%) Base Democrat (28%) Total Someone New Total Incumbent

By Party

• 22%

+24% +33% +6% +33%

32% 30% 38% 50% 37% 52% 56% 62% 64% 55% 46% 57% 41% 36% 5/09 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Worst is Over Worst is Still to Come

“Nevada has recently been going through a difficult time. Do you feel that the worst is over or is the worst is still to come?”

Nevada voters increasingly believe the worst is over for the state.

Better Off 38% Worse Off 47% About the Same 15%

A majority of Independents say they are worse off than they were four years ago.

Overall “And, thinking now just about you, would you say you are better off or worse off than you were four years ago?”

*Denotes Rounding

19% 27% 32% 56% 54% 69% 65% 52% 31% 23% 12% 8% 15% 12% 21%

Base GOP (23%) Soft GOP (13%) Independent (22%) Soft Democrat (13%) Base Democrat (28%) Better Off Worse Off About the Same

By Party

1% 11% 11% 28% 32% 36%

Don't Know Yes, Self/Not Able To Find Job Yes, Self/Settle For Job Paying Less Yes, Someone Else/Not Able To Find Job No Yes, Someone Else/Settle For Job Paying Less

A large majority of voters have either lost a job or had to settle for less themselves or know someone who has.

“Thinking now about yourself, have you or someone you know not been able to find a job or been forced to settle for a job paying significantly less than previously?”

Total Yes: 67%

36% 29% 24% 23% 21% 23% 47% 49% 52% 59% 47% 37% 16% 19% 23% 16% 30% 34% 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Increase Stay About the Same Decrease

“And, as you may know, Nevada’s unemployment rate is nearly the highest it has been in decades. Over the next year, do you think Nevada’s unemployment will...”

One-third of Nevadans now believe the unemployment rate will decrease over the next year.

A majority of Nevadans say the amount

• f taxes they pay is about right.

“Thinking about the state taxes you pay, do you consider the overall amount of state taxes you pay to be…?”

22% 24% 18% 22% 54% 54% 64% 59% 18% 16% 9% 8% 2/10 9/10 2/12 9/12 Too High About Right Too Low

60% 61% 61% 64% 62% 59% 33% 33% 37% 32% 34% 34% 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Yes, Increased Taxes or Fees Will Result in Additional Job Losses No, Increased Taxes or Fees Will Not Result in Additional Job Losses

“For a long time, Nevada led the nation in job creation and economic growth. However, since the recession began Nevada has lost thousands of jobs and now leads the nation in unemployment. Do you believe that increased taxes or fees on businesses will result in additional job losses?”

Nevadans continue to believe that increased taxes or fees will result in additional job losses.

52% 62% 60% 59% 45% 34% 35% 37% 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Raising Taxes Will Harm Attempt To Diversify Raising Taxes and Fees Will Have Little Impact

Voters agree that raising taxes will harm Nevada’s attempt to diversify the economy and attract new businesses.

“And, do you think that raising new taxes or fees on businesses will harm Nevada’s attempt to diversify the economy and attract new businesses to the state, or do you think that raising taxes or fees will have little impact on the state’s ability to attract new industries?”

40% 38% 43% 37% 35% 37% 32% 47% 47% 41% 52% 57% 58% 58% 5/09 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Cut Spending Raise Your Taxes

“As you may know, Nevada’s constitution requires that the state operate on a balanced budget. If state revenues fall, would you rather the Governor and State Legislature CUT SPENDING for government services such as education and health care, or RAISE YOUR TAXES to avoid these cuts?”

A strong majority of Nevada voters say they would rather raise taxes than cut spending in order to keep government services like education and health care.

**Split Sample A, (N=255)

69% 70% 56% 64% 59% 58% 26% 24% 40% 32% 34% 37% 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Additional Spending Cuts Can be Absorbed Additional Spending Cuts Will Hurt Important Programs

“Do you believe that spending cuts in Nevada’s state budget can be absorbed by trimming waste, fraud and abuse in the state budget and through government reorganization, or do you believe that additional spending cuts will hurt important programs?”

Voters continue to believe that spending cuts can be absorbed by trimming waste, fraud, and abuse.

“There may be a proposal on the ballot in 2014 to impose an additional two percent tax, called a margin tax, on all non-gaming businesses whose net revenue exceed one million dollars. I am going to read you two statements about the proposal. After I read each statement, please tell me which one comes closest to your own opinion.”

Some people say that this general business tax will generate needed tax revenues to support education and this form of corporate income tax is necessary to improve our schools. …while… Other people say that this type of general business tax will increase unemployment, cause already struggling businesses to fail since it applies even to businesses that are not profitable, and harm efforts to attract new businesses to Nevada.

Voters remain largely divided

• ver the margin tax messages.

45% 49%

2/12 9/12

47% 48%

69% 58% 53% 51% 25% 27% 39% 40% 45% 66% Base GOP (23%) Soft GOP (13%) Independent (22%) Soft Democrat (13%) Base Democrat (28%) Will Raise Prices, Unemployment Rate & Hurt Business Will Generate Necessary Revenues 71% 53% 58% 42% 21% 24% 40% 36% 55% 73%

2/12 9/12

• 13%

+22% +13%

• 52%

+47% +6% +13% +19%

• 41%

+42%

Margin Tax by Party

Independents continue to oppose the margin tax, while soft Democrats are also now against it.

“Now, I’d like to read you two statements about this proposal, and please tell me for each one if the statement makes you MORE likely or LESS likely to support the margin tax proposal,

• r if it makes no difference to your vote..”

The hit on the margin tax about funds being used for non-education purposes resonates with voters.

4% 41% 8% 21% 10% 59% 20% 35% Much More Likely Total More Likely Much Less Likely Total Less Likely Opponents of this proposal note that although the tax does not apply to gaming revenues, it does apply to all non-gaming revenues earned by casinos, such as revenues from shops, restaurants, hotels, and shows. Therefore, opponents argue that this tax will harm the gaming industry and cause job losses just when gaming industry employment was finally starting to recover. Supporters of this proposal claim that the hundreds of millions of dollars in additional tax revenue will help our struggling education system, but the supporters admit that the funds raised can be used for non-education purposes and that not a single dollar of the new tax is required to be used to increase education funding.

“Thinking now about education, Nevada’s education system has below average graduation rates and has below average scores on standardized tests. Do you think that the school system can be improved through increased spending or do you believe that the system also needs significant reforms in order to improve results?”

Nearly three-quarters of voters believe Nevada’s education system needs significant reforms to be improved.

System Improved Through Increased Spending 22% System Needs Significant Reforms 73% Don't Know 5% 90% 77% 78% 71% 53% 6% 17% 18% 27% 37% Base GOP (23%) Soft GOP (13%) Independent (22%) Soft Democrat (13%) Base Democrat (28%) Significant Reforms Increased Spending

By Party

+16% +44% +60% +84% +60%

Overall

58% 49% 44% 50% 36% 30% 42% 42% 36% 47% Base GOP (23%) Soft GOP (13%) Independent (22%) Soft Democrat (13%) Base Democrat (28%) Total Favor Total Oppose

By Party

• 11%

+14% +7% +28% +2%

Overall

GOPers and soft Democrats are in favor of a proposal that would limit the State Legislature’s ability to increase state spending.

“Would you favor or oppose a proposal that would not allow the State Legislature to increase total state government spending by more than the percentage increase in population plus the percentage increase of inflation?”

Total Favor: 47% Total Oppose: 39%*

Strongly Favor 20% Somewhat Favor 27% Somewhat Oppose 22% Strongly Oppose 18% Don't Know 13%

*Denotes Rounding

Strongly Favor 35% Somewhat Favor 36% Somewhat Oppose 12% Strongly Oppose 11% Don't Know 6%

The language that we tested last year on limiting spending is significantly different than this year’s question.

Strongly Favor 20% Somewhat Favor 27% Somewhat Oppose 22% Strongly Oppose 18% Don't Know 13%

“Would you favor or oppose a proposal that would not allow the State Legislature to increase total state government spending by more than the percentage increase in population plus the percentage increase of inflation?”

Total Favor: 47% Total Oppose: 39%* *Denotes Rounding

9/12 9/11

Total Favor: 71% Total Oppose: 23%

“Still thinking about the state budget, would you favor or oppose a proposal to limit the increase in state government spending annually to the same rate as economic growth?”

“Thinking some more about Nevada’s tax system...”

Some people say that Nevada’s tax system generally works well. They say times are unusually hard across the country, as most other states have major budget problems too. Making all businesses pay more in taxes will

• nly end up increasing the state’s unemployment rate and budget shortfall.

…while… Other people say that Nevada needs to significantly change its tax system to become less dependent on gaming and sales taxes and more stable because

• ther businesses would pay more. They say every time there is a downturn

in the national economy, the casinos are hurt and consumers spend less money, which ends up hurting the state budget.

Nevadans are divided over the effectiveness of the state’s tax system.

45% 47%

5/09 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 Works Well: 56% 48% 50% 46% 47% 50% Needs to Change: 39% 43% 40% 48% 45% 46%

Cut Spending 32% Both/ Primarily Cut Spending 2% Both/ Primarily Raise Your Taxes 1% Raise Your Taxes 58% Don't Know 5% Refused 2%

A majority of voters say taxes should be raised to balance the budget; they are divided over the margin tax and whether or not the state’s tax system works well.

Will Generate Necessary Revenues 45% Will Raise Prices, and Hurt Business 49% Don't Know 5% Refused 1%

CUT SPENDING or RAISE YOUR TAXES Margin Tax

Total Cut: 34% Total Raise Taxes: 59%

Tax System Works Well 45% Significantly Change Tax System 47% Don't Know 7% Refused 1%

Nevada’s tax system: Gaming and Sales Tax

A majority of Nevadans now say pensions should not be frozen in order to hold down expenses.

Yes, Freeze 49% No, Do Not Freeze 44% Don't Know 6% Refused 1%

“Some private companies, including General Motors, have said that they will freeze the defined benefit pension plans of all salaried workers in an effort to hold down expenses. A number of state governments are also considering taking this step in order to control costs. Do you believe that Nevada should freeze the defined benefits provided through the Public Employees Retirement System?”

Yes, Freeze 41% No, Do Not Freeze 52% Don't Know 6% Refused 1%* 2/12 9/12 *Denotes Rounding

64% 52% 37% 38% 23% 34% 42% 58% 52% 69% Base GOP (23%) Soft GOP (13%) Independent (22%) Soft Democrat (13%) Base Democrat (28%) Yes, Freeze No, Do Not Freeze 65% 47% 50% 42% 39% 30% 52% 38% 47% 54%

2/12 9/12

• 5%

+12%

• 5%
• 15%

+35%

• 14%
• 21%

+10%

• 46%

+30%

By Party

Independents have flipped on the pension issue.

46

“Thinking now about the House Republicans’ Medicare plan, I would like to read you two statements about what Democrats and Republicans are saying about the plan. After I read each statement, please tell me which one comes closest to your own opinion.”

A majority of Nevadans agree with the message supporting the Republican Medicare plan.

Republicans say this plan is a good idea because it leaves the current Medicare system exactly as-is for people 55 years old and older and protects the system for future generations. It stops Obamacare’s raid on the Medicare trust fund, increases funding for those who are poor and sick, and comes along with a bipartisan plan to fight Medicare waste and fraud. Without any changes, Medicare will be bankrupt in approximately ten years, requiring enormous tax increases or rationed care. …while… Democrats say this plan is a bad idea because it would cut Medicare spending and replace Medicare with a voucher system. Democrats say that a voucher system will force seniors to renegotiate with insurance companies, which are free to raise rates and deny coverage. Medicare’s guaranteed coverage would end, and seniors would have to pay more and more out of pocket.

51% 43%

47

“Thinking now about Medicaid, do you think that Nevada should...”

By a slim margin, voters say the state should

• pt in to expanded Medicaid coverage.

Opt in to expanded Medicaid coverage because expanding eligibility will provide more coverage to poor people, increase jobs in the health care industry, and cost the state very little because the federal government will pay nearly all of the program’s costs for at least the first few years. …or… Opt out of the expanded Medicaid coverage because the state cannot afford to pay its added share of the program’s costs and the system already covers the neediest children and elderly.

48% 44%

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