THE GEORGE WASHINGTON BATTLEGROUND POLL A national survey of 1,000 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

THE GEORGE WASHINGTON BATTLEGROUND POLL

A national survey of 1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction,

• r do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

24% 10% 67% Right direction Unsure Wrong track

Q1

October 27-31, 2013/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

28% 32% 28% 31% 29% 32% 37% 39% 34% 73% 24% 38% 32% 39% 37% 33% 35% 36% 31% 34% 38% 38% 40% 40% 41% 67% 59% 54% 57% 64% 63% 62% 55% 59% 72% 59% 75% 59% 56% 57% 61% 56% 54% 55% 57% 51% 62% 60% 52% 54% 67%

Right Direction 38% 40% 40% 41% 39% 28% 32% 31% 38% 34% 36% 28% 31% 29% 32% 19% 18% 35% 33% 32% 37% 38% 37% 39% 34% 19% 24% Wrong Track 57% 55% 54% 52% 54% 67% 60% 62% 51% 56% 55% 62% 63% 64% 59% 72% 75% 59% 59% 61% 57% 56% 57% 54% 59% 73% 67% Unsure 7% 7% 9% 7% 11% 9% 9% 10% 7% 9% 9% 8% 6% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 8% 10% Mar- 04 Jun- 04 Aug- 04 Oct- 04 Mar- 05 Oct- 05 Feb- 06 Sep- 06 Jul- 09 Dec- 09 Apr- 10 Aug- 10 Sep- 10 Oct- 10 May- 11 Sep- 11 Nov- 11 Feb- 12 May- 12 Aug- 12 Sep- 12 9/27 /12 10/1 8/12 11/5 /12 12/6 /12 10/3 1/13 1/16 /14

Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Q1

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

In thinking about the past few months and leaders in Washington solving problems, do you think that things have gotten better, gotten worse, stayed the same over the past few months?

12% 32% 54% 2% Gotten better Gotten worse Stayed the same Unsure/Refused

Q2

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate

• r the Democratic candidate, in your Congressional district?

43% 16% 41% Republican Undecided Democratic

Q3

October 27-31, 2013/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

47% 43% 45% 46% 44% 41% 42% 43% 46% 45% 45% 16% 15% 11% 8% 13% 13% 7% 8% 13% 9% 10% 41% 44% 45% 46% 46% 46% 47% 44% 47% 44% 42%

Republican 43% 45% 46% 45% 45% 44% 46% 47% 42% 41% 43% Undecided 13% 8% 11% 13% 9% 10% 8% 7% 13% 15% 16% Democratic 44% 47% 44% 42% 47% 46% 46% 46% 45% 44% 41% 11/9/11 2/22/12 5/3/12 8/8/12 9/20/12 9/27/12 10/18/12 11/5/12 12/6/12 10/31/13 1/16/14

If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for, the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, in your Congressional district?

Q3

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you think your Member of Congress has performed their job well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it's time to give a new person a chance?

29% 17% 54% Deserves re-election Undecided New person a chance

Q4

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Does Your Member of Congress Deserve Re-election

Deserves Re- election Unsure / Depends

• n Opponent

New Person a Chance Total 29% 17% 54% GOP Control 26% 19% 55% DEM Control 34% 13% 56%

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

41% 5% 54% Approve Unsure Disapprove

Q5

October 27-31, 2013/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

48% 49% 50% 53% 41% 45% 50% 48% 49% 49% 46% 45% 52% 44% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3% 2% 5% 3% 5% 49% 54% 52% 47% 48% 49% 48% 49% 48% 45% 51% 45% 50% 52%

Approve 46% 52% 45% 44% 53% 48% 48% 50% 49% 49% 49% 50% 45% 41% Unsure 4% 4% 5% 5% 3% 5% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% Disapprove 51% 45% 50% 52% 45% 48% 49% 48% 49% 48% 49% 47% 52% 54% 10/20/10 5/12/11 9/1/11 11/9/11 2/22/12 5/3/12 8/8/12 9/20/12 9/27/12 10/18/12 11/5/12 12/6/12 10/31/13 1/16/14

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

Q5

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, what is your impression of Barack Obama as a person? Do you approve or disapprove of him?

61% 10% 29% Approve Unsure Disapprove

Q6

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue. Here is the first one: 40% 43% 40% 33% 43% 41% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 6% 57% 55% 56% 63% 54% 53% The economy Solving problems Working with Congress The federal budget and spending Jobs Taxes

Approve Unsure Disapprove

Q7-12

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

How would you rate the job Congress is doing? Do you approve

• r disapprove of the job they are doing?

9% 4% 87% 14% 4% 81% Approve Unsure Disapprove 10/31/2013 1/16/2014

Q13

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

How would you rate the job your Member of Congress is doing? Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing?

39% 11% 50% 47% 9% 44% Approve Unsure Disapprove 10/31/2013 1/16/2014

Q14

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Your Member Job Approval

Approve Disapprove Strongly Total 47% 44% 28% GOP Control 42% 47% DEM Control 50% 42%

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

As you may already know, in December Congress passed and the President signed a law to fund the federal government for two

• years. Have you seen, read or heard anything about this federal

budget deal?

47% 2% 51% Yes Unsure No

Q21

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Thinking about what you have seen, read or heard about this budget deal, has it made you more likely or less likely to vote for your Member of Congress?

(If “Yes” in Q21, Asked of N=479, or 47.4% of Sample) 36% 10% 12% 42% More likely Unsure No difference Less likely

Q22

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

And, based on what you know, do you think this deal was more

• f a step in the right direction or giving up on key principles?

(If “Yes” in Q21, Asked of N=479, or 47.4% of Sample) 42% 49% 1% 7% Step in the right direction Giving up on key principles Other Unsure/Refused

Q23

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

In general, do you favor or oppose the Affordable Care Act, which is also called Obamacare?

43% 4% 53% 41% 3% 56% Favor Unsure Oppose 1/31/2013 1/16/20142

Q24

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you think that the Affordable Care Act, also called Obamacare, went too far, did not go far enough, or was about right?

49% 23% 21%

49% 23% 20% 1% 2% 6%

Too far Not far enough Was about right Combo/Other None Unsure/Refused

1/16/2014 1/16/20142

Q25

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you think that the national economy has gotten better, worse,

• r stayed the same over the past four years?

35% 42% 23% 1% Gotten better Gotten worse Stayed the same Unsure/Refused

Q26

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you think that your personal economic situation has gotten better, worse, or stayed the same over the past four years?

22% 36% 40% 1% 1% Gotten better Gotten worse Stayed the same Combo/Other Unsure/Refused

Q27

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

How big of a problem would you say that income inequality is? Would you say it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, not much of a problem, or not a problem at all?

49% 30% 8% 9% 4% Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not much of a problem Not a problem at all Unsure/Refused

Q28

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

What do you think would be the best way to make sure that everyone can move up economically? Would you say it is reducing the gap between the wealthiest Americans and the rest of the country or cutting taxes and removing unnecessary regulations?

43% 45% 4% 3% 5% Closing the gap Cutting taxes/removing regulations Combo/Other None Unsure/Refused

Q29

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

What is the likelihood that you will actually watch the speech live from the floor of the House of Representatives? Are you extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at all to watch President Obama’s speech?

23% 24% 18% 33% 1% Extremely Likely Very Likely Somewhat Likely Not at all Likely Unsure/Refuse

Q30

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Still thinking about the State of the Union speech, how important do you think this year’s speech will be? Would you say this will be extremely important, very important, somewhat important or not very important speech?

18% 24% 26% 31% 2% Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not at all Important Unsure/Refuse

Q31

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

And, in thinking about the State of the Union speech that President Obama will give this year, do you think the nation needs to hear a list of detailed policy proposals to address our problems or an inspirational speech that will bring us together as a nation?

56% 27% 8% 4% 5% Detailed policy proposals Inspirational speech Both Neither Unsure/Refuse

Q32

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Now I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me whether you think it is extremely important, very important, somewhat important or not very important for President Obama to talk about that issue. Here is the first one… 85% 25% 48% 55% 83% 11% 45% 40% 24% 12% 3% 27% 11% 18% 4% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% The economy The civil war in Syria Immigration Income inequality Jobs Very Important Somewhat Important Not at all Important Unsure

Q33-37

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

Now I am going to read you several issues. For each one, please tell me whether you think it is extremely important, very important, somewhat important or not very important for President Obama to talk about that issue. Here is the first one… 66% 72% 66% 53% 26% 19% 19% 31% 6% 7% 13% 13% 2% 2% 2% 2% Taxes The Federal deficit The new healthcare law The role of government in

• ur lives

Very Important Somewhat Important Not at all Important Unsure

Q38-41

January 12-16, 2014/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E.

12% 12% 16% 14% 16% 18% 16% 15% 15% 1/16/2014 10/31/2013 12/6/2012 10/11/2012 9/20/2012 8/9/2012 5/3/2012 2/22/2012 5/12/2011

Tea Party / Strongly

Tea Party / Strongly

Time Series