Bidens new consolidated lead in the ba battlegr ttleground ound - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Biden’s new consolidated lead in the ba battlegr ttleground

• und

Phone Poll

August 24, 2020

47 51 52 53 50 51 49 49 51 51 51 52 51 48 46 45 43 46 45 43 47 44 43 46 45 43 1 1 1 1

March May August March May August March May August March May August

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 3rd Party

+6

Trump V. Biden Generic Congressional Named Senate

AZ,CO, IA, ME, NC

2016 Pres Vote

+2

1

+5 +7 PRESIDENTIAL, HOUSE & SENATE BALLOTS

BATTLEGROUND

Displaying Senate result from Democracy Corps March & May & August 2020 battleground phone surveys.

+1 +7 +8 +6

Biden moves up to 10-point lead in battleground, with Democratic sweep possible

+7 +8 +4 +5 +10

92 98 98 71 73 89 76 76 77 94 93 76 6 2 1 9 7 3 20 14 18 2 2 20 77 80 90 63 51 77 70 71 85 7 1 6 1 1 1

March May August March May August March May August Biden in Primary Sanders in Primary Other in Primary March May August March May August March May August

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 3rd Party Biden in Primary Other in Primary Other in Primary

2

PRESIDENTIAL & SENATE BALLOTS

BATTLEGROUND

Biden has finally consolidated & energized Sanders and other primary

• pponents

Presidential Vote Trump v. Biden

Generic Congressional

Sanders in Primary Biden in Primary Sanders in Primary

+96 +86 +66 +62 +62 +56 +91 +94 +56 +86 +97 +59

Interest in Election (%10)

70 83 79 84 72 82 81 85

May August May August May August May August %10, interest 3

ENGAGEMENT AND CONSOLIDATION

Democrats more consolidated, more anti-Trump and equally engaged

71 70 2 69 8 89 7 89 6 89 82 4 79 4 87 6 91 8 89 9 93 11

Strong approve Strong disapprove

Rep

Democrats Republicans Biden voters Trump voters

Dem Dem Dem Rep Rep

+81 +81 +78 +83 +83 +87 95 7 3 89

Democrats Republicans

Deomcrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump

March May August Presidential Vote Trump Job Approval

Interest in Election (1-10 Scale)

+82 +92

52 60 43 49 47 49 54 45 47 54 52 61 35 40 41 43 48 43 37 31 47 47 49 47 43 51 43 36 37 33 58 56 54 53 48 53 10 5 6 1 2 1 9 5 3 6 1 2 1 1 1

May August May August May August May August May August May August May August May August May August

Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump 3rd Party

+15 +28 +23

Gen X Baby Boomer Silent Generation Millennials

+15 +29 +18 +2 +2 +2

4

+16 +13

Biden moves into real lead with millennials and young, but warning, loses lead with older voters

+11

• 2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT

Registered Voters in Battleground

White Gen X White Baby Boomer White Silent Generation White Millennials

+4 +10 +10 +6 +4

White Under 30

81 79 55 64 63 64 57 58 57 62 52 60 47 54 51 65 43 44 6 12 36 32 27 31 34 39 36 34 37 31 43 36 39 27 47 45 9 3 4 2 7 2 7 1 6 1 10 5 9 5 3 8 8

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Democrat Joe Biden Republican Donald Trump Libertarian/Other

+67 +75 +32

5 Thinking about the election for President in 2020, who would you vote for if the candidates were -- (ROTATE TRUMP AND BIDEN, KEEP AMASH LAST) Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, or the Libertarian candidate? Displaying results from Democracy Corps May & August 2020 battleground phone surveys.

RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL: BIDEN V. TRUMP

Biden now gets huge margins with broad base of Rising American Electorate, especially the women

African American, 13% Hispanic, 7% Unmarried Women, 28% White Unmarried Women, 18% White College Women, 23% Millennials, 33% White Millennials, 23%

+33 +23 +19 +21 +28 +15 +29 +4 +18 +19 +36

White Millennial Women, 11% White Millennial Men, 12%

+12 +38 +4 +1

34 42 45 44 23 32 30 32 61 56 50 52 71 66 69 62

16 Nation 18 Nation May Two-Way Vote August Two-Way Vote 16 Nation 18 Nation May Two-Way Vote August Two-Way Vote Clinton 2016/Democrat 2018/Biden 2020 Trump 2016/Republican 2018/Trump 2020

2016 V. 2018 NATIONAL V. 2020 BATTLEGROUND VOTE

+34

White Working-Class Women White Working-Class Men

+48 +27

6

24% 20%

Democracy Corps/VPC April 2020 battleground phone survey data compared to the 2016 presidential vote and 2018 Congressional vote in national exit polls. White working class =non college educated.

+8 +30

Trump’s 2016 white working class vote cooled in mid-terms and cooled further with Biden who competes for women

+13 +14 +14 +5 +39 +6 +4

28 20 31 19 14 22 35 34 34 43 26 52 41 38 34 41 45 36 39 38 28 33 37 51 45 41 47 45 48 35 43 48 57 51 44 53

Total Independent GOP Defector Millennial White millennial White Gen Z White Baby Boom White Silent Gen White Working Class Women

Very Warm (76-100) Warm (51-74) Very Cool (0-25) Cool (26-49)

Joe Biden does not yet have emotional hold on voters – at least before closing speech

7 Now, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and ideas, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling.

• 2
• 22

+17

• 2
• 10
• 23
• 10

+1

• 17

29 35 41 47 28 33 48 55 32 31 44 47 63 66 47 49 63 65 40 38 37 34 7 7 27 25 18 17 48 46 43 38 12 10 34 29 22 20 52 51

March August March August March August March August March August

Very Warm (76-100) Warm (51-74) Very Cool (0-25) Cool (26-49)

8 Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

The defining symbols: pro-health care; pro-wealth tax; and anti-border wall

+1 +9

Neutral: 13 DK: 2 Neutral: 11 DK: 2

THERMOMETERS

Neutral: 6 DK: 2 Neutral: 10 DK: 2 Neutral: 19 DK: 5 Neutral: 21 DK: 4

Medicaid

+51 +56 +12 +13

The border wall on the Mexican border

+41 +45

Neutral: 13 DK: 2 Neutral: 13 DK: 2

Raising taxes on people with wealth worth more than $35 million per year

Neutral: 20 DK: 2 Neutral: 17 DK: 3

+13 +20

Raising taxes on those making over $250,000 a year The Affordable Care Act

• r Obamacare

Evangelical Conservative, 31% Tea Party, 15% Catholic Conservative, 18% Secular Conservatives, 19% Moderate, 16%

9

Diminished GOP dominated by Tea Party and religious, with precious few moderates

64% 36%

Evangelical Conservatives, 26% Tea Party, 17%

Catholic Conservatives, 16%

Secular Conservative, 18% Moderate, 23%

59% 41%

Evangelical Conservatives, 28% Tea Party, 20% Catholic Conservatives, 17% Secular Conservative, 16% Moderates, 18%

65% 35%

2018 COMPOSITION OF GOP BASE 2019 COMPOSITION OF GOP BASE 2020 COMPOSITION OF GOP BASE

33 25 8 32

Democrat Independent/Lean Democrat Independent Independent/Lean Rebulican

10

18 percent of electorate now GOP defectors and key target

GOP DEFECTORS 65 28 79 3

2020 Presidential Vote Interest in Election (%10) Joe Biden Donald Trump

Party ID

4 6 8 3 17 94 88 90 91 87 88 91 78 78 74 1 2 4 5 1

Trump v. Biden %10 Interest Trump v. Biden %10 Interest Trump v. Biden %10 Interest Trump v. Biden %10 Interest Trump v. Biden %10 Interest

Democrat Biden/Warren Republican Donald Trump Total 3rd Party Evangelical, 31% Tea Party, 15% Catholic Conservative, 18% Secular Conservative, 19% Moderate, 16%

+84 +79 +88 +61 +90

11

2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT

GOP TYPOLOGY

Biden winning some moderates & Catholics; McCain conserve less engaged

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DEMOCRACY CORPS GREENBERG RESEARCH