Univision News September Poll: Poll Overview & Key Findings - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

@SergioGarciaRs Sergio I. Garcia-Rios

Univision News September Poll:

Poll Overview & Key Findings

The Univision Latino Poll – Methodology

2

Univision News polling strives for the most accurate and representative Latino sample in the industry. Every potential Latino voter must have an equal

• pportunity to

participate and be included in our polling.

• Collaborative approach
• Univision - Latino Decisions - North Star Opinion Research
• Sample consists of validated registered voters
• All respondents drawn from and matched against the voter file
• Hybrid Mode – Online, Cell, Landline
• Bilingual always offered at point of contact
• Weighted to match Census CPS voter demographics
• Two Polls
• National Latino – 1,043 Latino registered voters (+/- 3%)
• Texas Voters
• Statewide all racial groups – 1,004 representative sample of Texas

registered voters (+/- 3.1%)

• Oversample of 641 Latino Texas registered voters (+/- 3.9%)

The Univision Latino Poll – Methodology

3

Univision News polling strives for the most accurate and representative Latino sample in the industry. Every potential Latino voter must have an equal

• pportunity to

participate and be included in our polling. Univision Polling Approach

• Second major poll of the 2020 campaign cycle (June, pre-Miami debate)
• Additional future polls planned around debates and primary elections
• Univision News will offer consistent and accurate insights into the Latino

electorate Content:

• Democratic primary
• Presidential
• Trump vs generic Democrat
• Specific candidate matchups
• Senate election in Texas
• El Paso and Gun Violence
• Race relations

Trump Approval – National Latino

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

4

25 22 75 78 June 2019 Sept 2019

Approve Disapprove

Trump approval remains low, 78%

• f Latino voters

disapprove of Trump, up from 75% disapproval in June.

Democratic Primary Candidate Favorability

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of {candidate name} - National Latino Registered Voters

5

59 56 51 44 49 42 67 64 54 53 50 48

Sanders Biden Castro Warren Harris O'Rourke

June 2019 Sept 2019

Since June, Biden and Sanders experienced favorability gains of +8, and Warren +9.

Democratic Primary Vote – National Latino

[Dem and Dem leaners only] Among the candidates running for President, who are you currently planning to vote for?

6

20 19 9 7 7 7 22 20 12 11 8 6

Biden Sanders Castro Warren Harris O'Rourke

June 2019 Sept 2019

Biden, Sanders, Castro, Warren are now all in double

• digits. A notable

shift from our June poll.

Racism against Latinos major problem

Generally speaking, how much of a problem do you think racism against Latinos and immigrants is today?

7

Major problem 62

Somewhat of a problem 25

Not too much 10

Not at all 4

Among Latino voters, 87% think racism against immigrants and Latinos is a problem today, including 62% who say it is a "major problem" National Latino Registered Voters

White supremacist groups pose threat

Please indicate if you agree or disagree with each of the following statements: White supremacist groups pose a threat to the United States

8

Strongly agree 57

Somewhat agree 27

Somewhat disagree 11

Strong Disagree 5

Among Latino voters, 74% believe that White supremacist groups pose a threat to the United States. The majority, 57%, strongly agree. National Latino Registered Voters

Factors responsible for El Paso shooting

How much responsibility – if any – does each item bear for the mass shooting that took place at a Walmart in El Paso

9

69% of Latino voters make a direct connection between language used by President Trump and the El Paso shootings 74% sight the rise

• f white

supremacy as a contributing factor

46 46 48 49 30 23 26 25

17 17 14 15 7 14 12 11

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Lack of mental health treatment Trump language in speeches/tweets Assault and military firearms Rise of white supremacy Great deal Good amount Not much None

National Latino Registered Voters

Wide support for stronger gun laws

Please indicate if you agree or disagree: Congress should pass a law expanding background checks to all gun sales and transfers. Please indicate if you agree or disagree: Congress should ban the sale of assault weapons like the AR-15 rifle.

10

Strongly agree 76 Strongly agree 65

Somewhat agree 16 Somewhat agree 19

Somewhat disagree 5 Somewhat disagree 9 Strongly disagree 3 Strongly disagree 7

Background checks all gun sales and transfers Ban sale of assault weapons

An overwhelming majority (92%) believe Congress should pass a law expanding background checks

• n all gun sales

and transfers; 76% strongly agree. And, 84% of Latinos support a ban on assault weapons National Latino Registered Voters

Presidential Vote in Texas Statewide

Thinking ahead to the 2020 election for President of the United States, do you plan to vote for [ROTATE: Donald Trump or the Democratic Candidate?]

11

Total Democrat 47 Total Democrat 69 Total Trump 42 Total Trump 19

Undecided 11 Undecided 12

Texas Registered Voters Texas Latino Voters

Total Democrat Total Trump Undecided

In a statewide sample (all racial groups) Texans report a +5% preference for a Democratic candidate over Trump in the 2020 presidential race.

Castro and O’Rourke - President or Senate

Are you satisfied with the current field of Democratic candidates running for Senate in Texas, or do you think former [Congressman Beto O'Rourke / Housing Secretary Julian Castro] should drop out of the presidential race and instead run for U.S. Senate in Texas?

12

42 35 31 30 Julian Castro should drop out of presidential race and run for Senate Beto O'Rourke should drop out of the presidential race and run for Senate

Texas Registered Voters Texas Latino Voters

Most Texas voters do not want for Castro or O'Rourke to drop out of the presidential race to run for Senate. There is a bit more support among Latinos to see Castro in the Texas Senate race though.

Texas: Democratic Primary Candidate Vote

[Dem and Dem leaners only] Among the candidates running for President, who are you currently planning to vote for?

13

26 19 16 13 6 3 19 20 13 12 12 5 O'Rourke Biden Sanders Castro Warren Harris

Texas Latino Voters Texas Registered Voters

O'Rourke is a leading choice ranking first among Texas Latinos and statistically tied with Biden for first among all voters statewide.