COLORADO GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY October 8 th 10 th , 2018 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

COLORADO GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY

October 8th – 10th, 2018

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Methodology

ØMagellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a

500n live survey of likely general election voters in the state of Colorado.

ØThe interviews were conducted from October 8th – 10th, 2018. ØThe overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95%

confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population.

ØThe survey results were weighted based upon past voter

turnout demographics for a non-presidential general election in Colorado.

ØDavid Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project,

and Courtney Sievers was the project director.

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

Survey Demographics

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

18% 15% 19% 23% 25%

35% 33% 31% 1% Republican Democrat Unaffiliated Other

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48% 52% Male Female

White Hispanic Black or African American Other

80% 13% 2% 5%

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

Survey Demographics

Married Single, Never Married Separated Divorced Widowed Unmarried Living with Partner

67% 10% 11% 5% 1%

38% 34% 25% 3%

Conservative Moderate Liberal Unsure 4

41% 29% 16% 9%

Suburban Area Big City Small Town Rural Area

Less Than $75k $76k to $125k More Than $126k Refused

31% 38% 14% 17%

Suburban Area Vs. Rural Area Marital Status Income Ideology

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

Congressional Districts

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Colorado Congressional Districts

3 4 2 5 6 7 1

Weld Moffat Mesa Baca Park Routt Yuma Las Animas Garfield Larimer Lincoln Pueblo Gunnison Bent Saguache Elbert Grand Eagle Logan Rio Blanco Kiowa El Paso Montrose Otero Delta Washington La Plata Kit Carson Jackson Prowers Fremont Cheyenne Morgan Montezuma Adams Pitkin Huerfano Costilla Conejos Archuleta Dolores Chaffee Hinsdale Mineral San Miguel Custer Teller Douglas Crowley Boulder Phillips Ouray Arapahoe Alamosa Lake Rio Grande Sedgwick Jefferson Summit San Juan Clear Creek Gilpin Denver Broomfield

Legend

Congressional District

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2 7 6 1 4 4

Adams Jefferson Boulder Denver Weld Gilpin Arapahoe Broomfield Clear Creek

Denver Metro Area Inset

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

KEY FINDINGS

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Key Findings:

ØThere is clear evidence that Democrat voters are more energized

and interested in the November elections than Republican voters. Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning the respondent was very interested in the election, 59% of Democrat respondents are a “10” compared to 47% of Republicans.

ØAmong all respondents, 46% of likely voters prefer an outcome from

the election where Democrats control Congress and 40% prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, 36% prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats, 23% prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans, and 41% are undecided.

ØDemocrat Congressman Jared Polis leads Republican State Treasurer

Walker Stapleton by 7 points, 47% to 40% respectively, Libertarian Scott Helker has 4% support, and 9% are undecided. This ballot test is exactly the same as the Healthier Colorado survey fielded in mid- September.

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

Key Findings:

ØThe survey included ballot test questions measuring

support and opposition for the two transportation funding

• proposals. Voters are more likely to support and approve

Proposition 109, (52% approve/23% reject/25% undecided) than Proposition 110 (35% approve/34%

• ppose/31% undecided). The primary difference

between the two proposals is Proposition 109 would not raise taxes and Proposition 110 would.

ØColorado voters are evenly split in their opinion of Brett

Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court with 43% approving his confirmation and 43% disapproving.

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

VOTER OPINION ON CONTROL OF CONGRESS AND STATE LEGISLATURE

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What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s elections for Congress, a Congress controlled by Democrats or a Congress controlled by Republicans?

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46% 40% 14%

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS UNDECIDED REFUSED

41% 50% 43% 37% 15% 13% 1% MEN WOMEN 6% 96% 36% 92% 2% 23% 2% 2% 41% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s elections for Congress, a Congress controlled by Democrats or a Congress controlled by Republicans?

46% 40% 14%

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS UNDECIDED REFUSED 11

50% 55% 42% 41% 45% 37% 39% 38% 38% 46% 14% 6% 20% 19% 9% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s elections for the State Legislature, a legislature controlled by Democrats or a legislature controlled by Republicans?

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46% 39% 15%

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS UNDECIDED REFUSED

42% 50% 42% 36% 17% 13% 1% MEN WOMEN 7% 98% 35% 90% 2% 22% 3% 44% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s elections for the State Legislature, a legislature controlled by Democrats or a legislature controlled by Republicans?

46% 39% 15%

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS UNDECIDED REFUSED 13

49% 54% 45% 41% 45% 35% 35% 39% 38% 45% 17% 10% 16% 19% 11% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

CANDIDATE AND POLITICAL PARTY IMAGE RATINGS

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Governor Candidate Image Ratings

I am now going to read to you names of

• rganizations and people that are involved in
• politics. After hearing each name, please tell

me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of that organization or

• person. If you have heard of the organization
• r person, but do not have an opinion of

them, or you have never heard of them, there are options for that as well. Let’s get started. The first name is…

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

Jared Polis

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Very Favorable 30% Somewhat Favorable 15% Very Unfavorable 23% Somewhat Unfavorable 13%

45% 36% 14% 5%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED

41% 49% 37% 35% 15% 13% 8% 3% MEN WOMEN 5% 86% 47% 77% 2% 27% 11% 9% 20% 8% 3% 6% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

Jared Polis

45% 36% 14% 5%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 17

Very Favorable 30% Somewhat Favorable 15% Very Unfavorable 23% Somewhat Unfavorable 13%

48% 53% 36% 46% 44% 35% 37% 42% 31% 36% 13% 8% 18% 16% 13% 4% 2% 4% 7% 8% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

Walker Stapleton

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Very Favorable 23% Somewhat Favorable 19% Very Unfavorable 24% Somewhat Unfavorable 12%

42% 36% 14% 8%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED

42% 41% 35% 37% 17% 12% 6% 9% MEN WOMEN 85% 5% 32% 3% 73% 36% 9% 12% 22% 3% 11% 9% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

Walker Stapleton

42% 36% 14% 8%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 19

Very Favorable 23% Somewhat Favorable 19% Very Unfavorable 24% Somewhat Unfavorable 12%

39% 39% 47% 39% 42% 32% 48% 30% 40% 34% 20% 11% 16% 14% 12% 7% 1% 7% 8% 12% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

VOTER OPINION OF DEMOCRAT AND REPUBLICAN PARTIES

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The Democrat Party

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Very Favorable 31% Somewhat Favorable 17% Very Unfavorable 31% Somewhat Unfavorable 11%

48% 42% 10%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED

43% 52% 44% 40% 12% 8% MEN WOMEN 4% 95% 47% 90% 4% 28% 6% 24% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

The Democrat Party

48% 42% 10%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 22

Very Favorable 31% Somewhat Favorable 17% Very Unfavorable 31% Somewhat Unfavorable 11%

52% 53% 43% 49% 44% 35% 40% 43% 40% 49% 12% 6% 13% 11% 7% 1% 1% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

The Republican Party

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Very Favorable 30% Somewhat Favorable 16% Very Unfavorable 33% Somewhat Unfavorable 12%

46% 45% 9%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED

46% 45% 41% 49% 12% 6% 1% MEN WOMEN 95% 3% 36% 3% 95% 40% 1% 2% 23% 1% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

The Republican Party

46% 45% 9%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 24

Very Favorable 30% Somewhat Favorable 16% Very Unfavorable 33% Somewhat Unfavorable 12%

43% 40% 46% 45% 50% 45% 54% 40% 45% 44% 11% 6% 13% 10% 5% 1% 1% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

PRESIDENT TRUMP JOB APPROVAL RATING

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Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

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Strongly Approve 33% Somewhat Approve 11% Strongly Disapprove 40% Somewhat Disapprove 10%

44% 50% 6%

TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

49% 41% 44% 55% 7% 4% MEN WOMEN 96% 2% 32% 3% 97% 51% 1% 1% 16% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

44% 50% 6%

TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 27

Strongly Approve 33% Somewhat Approve 11% Strongly Disapprove 40% Somewhat Disapprove 10%

37% 37% 42% 49% 52% 54% 60% 54% 42% 45% 9% 3% 4% 9% 3% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

GOVERNOR BALLOT TEST

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If the election for Governor were being held today would you vote for Jared Polis, the Democratic candidate, Walker Stapleton, the Republican candidate, Scott Helker, the Libertarian candidate or Bill Hammons, the Unity Party of Colorado candidate?

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Definitely Polis 34% Probably Polis 13% Definitely Stapleton 33% Probably Stapleton 7%

47% 40% 4% 9%

TOTAL POLIS TOTAL STAPLETON HELKER HAMMONS UNDECIDED REFUSED

43% 50% 43% 37% 3% 4% 11% 8% MEN WOMEN 2% 96% 46% 95% 2% 20% 2% 8% 1% 3% 26% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

If the election for Governor were being held today would you vote for Jared Polis, the Democratic candidate, Walker Stapleton, the Republican candidate, Scott Helker, the Libertarian candidate or Bill Hammons, the Unity Party of Colorado candidate?

47% 40% 4% 9%

TOTAL POLIS TOTAL STAPLETON HELKER HAMMONS UNDECIDED REFUSED 30

Definitely Polis 34% Probably Polis 13% Definitely Stapleton 33% Probably Stapleton 7%

46% 57% 50% 42% 43% 35% 36% 34% 40% 50% 1% 3% 10% 1% 2% 1% 17% 2% 6% 16% 5% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

VOTER OPINION OF JUSTICE KAVANAGH CONFIRMATION

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Strongly Approve 27% Somewhat Approve 16% Strongly Disapprove 31% Somewhat Disapprove 12%

As you may know, over this past weekend Brett Kavanagh was confirmed to the Supreme Court. Knowing this, do you approve of Brett Kavanagh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court or do you disapprove of his confirmation?

43% 43% 14%

TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE REFUSED

44% 43% 39% 46% 18% 11% MEN WOMEN 83% 13% 31% 8% 83% 37% 8% 4% 31% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

As you may know, over this past weekend Brett Kavanagh was confirmed to the Supreme Court. Knowing this, do you approve of Brett Kavanagh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court or do you disapprove of his confirmation?

43% 43% 14%

TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE REFUSED 33

Strongly Approve 27% Somewhat Approve 16% Strongly Disapprove 31% Somewhat Disapprove 12%

36% 36% 46% 42% 52% 45% 46% 42% 39% 42% 19% 18% 12% 19% 6% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

VOTER OPINION OF TRANSPORTATION PROPSALS

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There are two propositions on the ballot regarding transportation funding, Proposition 109 and Proposition 110. I am now going to read to you the ballot language of Proposition 109. After hearing it, please tell me if you intend to vote YES and approve the proposition, or if you intend to vote NO and reject it. The ballot language reads as: SHALL STATE DEBT BE INCREASED THREE POINT FIVE BILLION DOLLARS [$3.5 BILLION], WITH A MAXIMUM REPAYMENT COST OF FIVE POINT TWO BILLION DOLLARS [5.2 BILLION], WITHOUT RAISING TAXES OR FEES, BY A CHANGE TO THE COLORADO REVISED STATUTES REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF TRANSPORTATION REVENUE ANTICIPATION NOTES, AND, IN CONNECTION THEREWITH, NOTE PROCEEDS SHALL BE RETAINED AS A VOTER- APPROVED REVENUE CHANGE AND USED EXCLUSIVELY TO FUND SPECIFIED ROAD AND BRIDGE EXPANSION, CONSTRUCTION, MAINTENANCE, AND REPAIR PROJECTS THROUGHOUT THE STATE? If the election were being held today, would you vote YES and approve 109, or would you vote NO and reject it?

Proposition 109 – Transportation Funding

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

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Definitely Yes, Approve 16% Probably Yes, Approve 36% Definitely No, Reject 9% Probably No, Reject 14%

52% 23% 25%

TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED

51% 53% 24% 21% 23% 26% 2% MEN WOMEN 46% 62% 47% 27% 20% 21% 27% 16% 31% 2% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Proposition 109 – Transportation Funding

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

52% 23% 25%

TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED 37

Definitely Yes, Approve 16% Probably Yes, Approve 36% Definitely No, Reject 9% Probably No, Reject 14% 47% 61% 48% 53% 53% 22% 18% 26% 21% 25% 27% 21% 26% 26% 23% 4% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Proposition 109 – Transportation Funding

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

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As I mentioned before, Proposition 110 is also about transportation funding. I am now going to read to you the ballot language of Proposition 110. After hearing it, please tell me if you intend to vote YES and approve the proposition, or if you intend to vote NO and reject it. The ballot language is rather long, so please be patient and listen carefully. It reads as: SHALL STATE TAXES BE INCREASED SEVEN HUNDRED AND SIXTY-SIX MILLION DOLLARS [$766 MILLION] ANNUALLY FOR A TWENTY-YEAR PERIOD, AND STATE DEBT SHALL BE INCREASED SIX BILLION DOLLARS [$6 BILLION] WITH A MAXIMUM REPAYMENT COST OF NINE POINT FOUR BILLION DOLLARS [$9.4 BILLION], TO PAY FOR STATE AND LOCAL TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS, AND, IN CONNECTION THEREWITH, CHANGING THE COLORADO REVISED STATUTES TO: “ONE”, INCREASE THE STATE SALES AND USE TAX RATE BY ZERO POINT SIX TWO PERCENT [0.62%] BEGINNING JANUARY 1, 2019; REQUIRING 45% OF THE NEW REVENUE TO FUND STATE TRANSPORTATION SAFETY, MAINTENANCE, AND CONGESTION RELATED PROJECTS, 40% TO FUND MUNICIPAL AND COUNTY TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS, AND 15% TO FUND MULTIMODAL TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS, INCLUDING BIKE, PEDESTRIAN, AND TRANSIT INFRASTRUCTURE; “TWO”, AUTHORIZE THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL TRANSPORTATION REVENUE ANTICIPATION NOTES TO FUND PRIORITY STATE TRANSPORTATION MAINTENANCE AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS, INCLUDING MULTIMODAL CAPITAL PROJECTS; AND “THREE”, PROVIDE THAT ALL REVENUE RESULTING FROM THE TAX RATE INCREASE AND PROCEEDS FROM ISSUANCE OF REVENUE ANTICIPATION NOTES ARE VOTER- APPROVED REVENUE CHANGES EXEMPT FROM ANY STATE OR LOCAL REVENUE, SPENDING, OR OTHER LIMITATIONS IN LAW? If the election were being held today, would you vote YES and approve Proposition 110, or would you vote NO and reject it?

Proposition 110 – Transportation Funding

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

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Definitely Yes, Approve 11% Probably Yes, Approve 24% Definitely No, Reject 13% Probably No, Reject 21%

Proposition 110 – Transportation Funding

35% 34% 29% 2%

TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED

33% 36% 36% 32% 29% 30% 2% 2% MEN WOMEN 23% 47% 35% 50% 26% 24% 25% 25% 40% 3% 3% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

Proposition 110 – Transportation Funding

35% 34% 29% 2%

TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED 40

Definitely Yes, Approve 11% Probably Yes, Approve 24% Definitely No, Reject 13% Probably No, Reject 21% 38% 47% 30% 30% 33% 31% 27% 33% 35% 38% 21% 25% 36% 34% 29% 9% 1% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES

303-861-8585 www.MagellanStrategies.com

David Flaherty | Courtney Sievers