COLORADO GENERAL ELECTION VOTER OPINION SURVEY July 15 th 17 th , - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

COLORADO GENERAL ELECTION VOTER OPINION SURVEY

July 15th – 17th, 2019

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Methodology

Ø Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a

500n live telephone and online survey of likely 2020 general election voters in the state of Colorado. The online interviews were collected using Dynata’s online panel.

Ø The interviews were conducted from July 15th – 17th, 2019. Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95%

confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population.

Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past general

election voter turnout demographics.

Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project,

and Courtney Sievers was the project director.

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

Survey Demographics

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

27% 16% 17% 19% 21%

30% 33% 36% 1% Republican Democrat Unaffiliated Other

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48% 52% Male Female

White Hisapanic or Latino Black or African American Other Refused

80% 13% 2% 5%

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

Survey Demographics

Married Single, Never Married Unmarried Living with Partner Separated Divorced Widowed

54% 22% 10% 9% 4%

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Marital Status

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

Suburban Area Big City Small Town Rural Area Refused

48% 24% 16% 11% 1%

Area Live In

KEY FINDINGS

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Key Findings:

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

Ø Voters are evenly split when asked if Governor Polis and the Democratic state legislature overreached during this past legislative session, passing bills that went too far and were out of touch with everyday Coloradans. A plurality of voters, 45%, believe that they did

• verreach, 40% do not think they overreached, and 15% are unsure
• r don’t have an opinion.

Ø Despite 45% agreeing that Governor Polis and the legislature

• verreached this past session, 47% of voters oppose the effort to

recall the Governor, 38% support recalling him and 15% are undecided. Ø Right now, nearly 30% of voters who do agree that the Governor and the legislature overreached remain unconvinced that a recall is the right course of action.

Key Findings:

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

Ø Colorado voters are evenly split regarding the direction in which the state is headed. Among all respondents, 44% think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction, 41% feel things are off on the wrong track and 15% are unsure or do not have an opinion. Ø Democratic voters have a slight edge in voter intensity heading into the 2020 elections, though Republicans and unaffiliated voters show a high level of interest as well. Ø Currently, Colorado voters prefer Democrats to have control of Congress by a 10-point margin, 47% to 37%, over Republicans.

Key Findings:

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

Ø A majority of voters, 57%, disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, compared to only 39% who approve of the job he is doing. Ø President Trump trails a generic Democratic Party candidate by 12 points, 44% to 32% in a 2020 ballot test, with 15% of voters choosing some other candidate and 8% being undecided. Ø Governor Jared Polis currently has a +12% job approval rating as 49% approve of the job he is doing, 37% disapprove and 14% are unsure.

VOTER MOOD

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Generally speaking, do you think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

44% 41% 15%

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

44% 44% 44% 39% 12% 18% 1% MEN WOMEN 25% 58% 47% 66% 23% 36% 8% 19% 17% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Generally speaking, do you think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

44% 41% 15%

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 11

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 50% 41% 38% 32% 50% 43% 17% 9% 20% 1% 18-44 45-64 65+ 47% 48% 47% 39% 30% 43% 51% 31% 37% 40% 43% 51% 46% 41% 22% 14% 13% 18% 19% 11% 8% 2% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

VOTER OPINION ON CONGRESS CONTROL AFTER 2020

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What is your preference for the outcome of the 2020 November elections for the United States Congress? Do you want Congress to be controlled by Democrats or Republicans?

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

47% 37% 16%

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS UNDECIDED REFUSED

44% 50% 42% 32% 14% 17% 1% MEN WOMEN 6% 92% 42% 87% 4% 24% 7% 4% 33% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

What is your preference for the outcome of the 2020 November elections for the United States Congress? Do you want Congress to be controlled by Democrats or Republicans?

47% 37% 16%

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS UNDECIDED REFUSED 14

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 54% 38% 49% 28% 44% 42% 18% 17% 9% 1% 18-44 45-64 65+ 58% 58% 38% 39% 34% 48% 51% 26% 30% 42% 41% 39% 44% 37% 16% 12% 18% 20% 26% 8% 11% 2% 1% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

PRESIDENT TRUMP APPROVAL RATING

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Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

39% 57% 3% 1%

TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

Strongly Approve 24% Somewhat Approve 15% Strongly Disapprove 49% Somewhat Disapprove 8% 43% 35% 54% 60% 3% 4% 1% MEN WOMEN 75% 7% 37% 21% 90% 58% 4% 2% 5% 1% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

39% 57% 3% 1%

TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 17

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 25% 51% 45% 69% 46% 54% 5% 3% 1% 1% 1% 18-44 45-64 65+ 24% 37% 50% 41% 43% 41% 37% 70% 63% 46% 53% 51% 55% 61% 4% 2% 5% 6% 5% 2% 3% 2% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

GOVERNOR POLIS APPROVAL RATING

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Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jared Polis is doing as Governor?

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Strongly Approve 21% Somewhat Approve 28% Strongly Disapprove 27% Somewhat Disapprove 10%

49% 37% 14%

TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

46% 51% 45% 29% 8% 20% MEN WOMEN 20% 75% 49% 70% 13% 30% 10% 13% 21% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jared Polis is doing as Governor?

49% 37% 14%

TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 20

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 51% 44% 51% 29% 45% 39% 20% 11% 11% 18-44 45-64 65+ 58% 55% 47% 39% 42% 43% 55% 24% 38% 40% 44% 36% 44% 33% 19% 7% 14% 18% 22% 14% 12% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT TEST

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If the election for President were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, the Democratic Party’s candidate or some other candidate?

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

44% 32% 15% 8% 1%

TOTAL DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE TOTAL TRUMP SOME OTHER CANDIDATE UNDECIDED REFUSED

Definitely Dem Candidate 33% Probably Dem Candidate 11% Definitely Trump 25% Probably Trump 7% 43% 45% 36% 28% 10% 20% 10% 7% 1% MEN WOMEN 8% 82% 41% 73% 4% 24% 12% 11% 21% 7% 2% 14% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

If the election for President were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, the Democratic Party’s candidate or some other candidate?

44% 32% 15% 8% 1%

TOTAL DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE TOTAL TRUMP SOME OTHER CANDIDATE UNDECIDED REFUSED 23

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 53% 34% 42% 20% 41% 41% 20% 13% 10% 6% 11% 7% 1% 1% 18-44 45-64 65+

58% 52% 31% 38% 32% 46% 48% 22% 30% 43% 30% 38% 35% 26% 13% 9% 24% 19% 18% 13% 13% 5% 8% 2% 12% 12% 6% 13% 2% 1% 1% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

VOTER OPINION ON COLORADO STATE LEGISLATURE OVERREACH IN 2019

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Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Governor Polis and the Democratic state legislature overreached during this past legislative session and passed bills that went too far and were

• ut of touch with everyday Coloradans.

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

45% 40% 15%

TOTAL AGREE TOTAL DISAGREE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

Strongly Agree 28% Somewhat Agree 17% Strongly Disagree 19% Somewhat Disagree 21% 47% 43% 41% 39% 12% 18% MEN WOMEN 72% 26% 39% 17% 58% 42% 11% 16% 19% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Governor Polis and the Democratic state legislature overreached during this past legislative session and passed bills that went too far and were

• ut of touch with everyday Coloradans.

45% 40% 15%

TOTAL AGREE TOTAL DISAGREE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 26

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 38% 55% 42% 43% 34% 43% 19% 11% 15% 18-44 45-64 65+ 33% 47% 51% 53% 43% 50% 39% 45% 42% 34% 33% 39% 43% 43% 23% 12% 15% 13% 18% 7% 18% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

VOTER OPINION ON GOVERNOR POLIS RECALL ELECTION

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As you may know, there is an effort underway to recall Governor Jared Polis, and signatures are currently being collected around the state. If that effort to hold a recall election is successful, would you vote yes to recall Governor Polis and remove him from office, or would you vote no to keep Governor Polis in office?

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Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019

47% 38% 15%

TOTAL NO, KEEP IN OFFICE TOTAL YES, RECALL UNDECIDED REFUSED

Definitely No, Keep 34% Probably No, Keep 13% Definitely Yes, Recall 27% Probably Yes, Recall 11% 49% 45% 42% 33% 9% 21% MEN WOMEN 24% 66% 50% 62% 21% 32% 14% 13% 18% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

As you may know, there is an effort underway to recall Governor Jared Polis, and signatures are currently being collected around the state. If that effort to hold a recall election is successful, would you vote yes to recall Governor Polis and remove him from office, or would you vote no to keep Governor Polis in office?

47% 38% 15%

TOTAL NO, KEEP IN OFFICE TOTAL YES, RECALL UNDECIDED REFUSED 29

Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 49% 44% 51% 31% 45% 38% 20% 11% 11% 1% 18-44 45-64 65+ 57% 51% 42% 42% 43% 38% 57% 26% 41% 38% 42% 32% 48% 36% 17% 8% 19% 16% 25% 14% 7% 1% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES

303-861-8585 www.MagellanStrategies.com

David Flaherty | Courtney Sievers Ryan Winger