COLORADO TABOR AMENDMENT VOTER OPINION SURVEY August 5 th 7 th , - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

COLORADO TABOR AMENDMENT VOTER OPINION SURVEY

August 5th – 7th, 2019

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Methodology

Ø Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a

500n live telephone and online survey of likely 2020 general election voters in the state of Colorado. The online interviews were collected using Dynata’s online panel.

Ø The interviews were conducted from August 5th – 7th, 2019. Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95%

confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population.

Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past Colorado

general election voter turnout demographics for a Presidential election cycle.

Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project,

and Courtney Sievers was the project director.

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

Survey Demographics

Among Likely 2020 General Election Voters

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

27% 16% 17% 19% 21%

30% 33% 36% 1% Republican Democrat Unaffiliated Other

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48% 52% Male Female

White Hisapanic or Latino Black or African American Other Refused

80% 13% 2% 5%

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

Survey Demographics

Married Single, Never Married Unmarried Living with Partner Separated Divorced Widowed

53% 23% 8% 10% 6%

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Marital Status

Suburban Area Big City Small Town Rural Area Refused

47% 22% 16% 15%

Area Live In

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

Colorado Congressional Districts

3 4 2 5 6 7 1

Weld Moffat Mesa Baca Park Routt Yuma Las Animas Garfield Larimer Lincoln Pueblo Gunnison Bent Saguache Elbert Grand Eagle Logan Rio Blanco Kiowa El Paso Montrose Otero Delta Washington La Plata Kit Carson Jackson Prowers Fremont Cheyenne Morgan Montezuma Adams Pitkin Huerfano Costilla Conejos Archuleta Dolores Chaffee Hinsdale Mineral San Miguel Custer Teller Douglas Crowley Boulder Phillips Ouray Arapahoe Alamosa Lake Rio Grande Sedgwick Jefferson Summit San Juan Clear Creek Gilpin Denver Broomfield

Legend

Congressional District

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2 7 6 1 4 4

Adams Jefferson Boulder Denver Weld Gilpin Arapahoe Broomfield Clear Creek

Denver Metro Area Inset

KEY FINDINGS

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Key Findings:

Ø At this time, 54% of likely 2019 general election voters intend to

vote yes and approve Proposition CC, 30% intend to vote no and reject it and 15% are undecided.

Ø A plurality of Colorado voters, 46%, have a favorable opinion

• f the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, also known as the TABOR

Amendment, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of the amendment and 18% have no opinion of the amendment.

Ø The primary reasons 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of

the TABOR Amendment are a check on government spending, holding elected officials accountable and requiring them to explain their spending decisions.

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

Key Findings:

Ø The primary reasons 36% of respondents have an unfavorable

• pinion of TABOR is the belief that the amendment has had a

negative impact on adequate funding for public education, roads, transportation and other government services. They also believe TABOR is unnecessary because elections provide an

• pportunity for voters to remove elected officials that are

unhappy with their spending decisions.

Ø Forty-seven percent of respondents would support a ballot

measure that would allow the state of Colorado to retain revenue that would otherwise be subject to a taxpayer refund for no specific purpose. Thirty-nine percent would oppose the ballot measure and 13% were undecided.

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

Key Findings:

Ø The component of TABOR that requires voter approval for

tax increases and bond measures has strong support. Among all respondents, 62% support voter approval for tax increases, 26% oppose, and 12% were undecided.

Ø At this time, the full repeal of the TABOR Amendment in

the 2020 election cycle is unlikely. Among all respondents,

• nly 36% would support the full repeal of TABOR, 48%

would oppose it and 16% of respondents were undecided.

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

VOTER MOOD

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Generally speaking, do you think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

49% 39% 12%

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

54% 43% 39% 40% 6% 17% MEN WOMEN 23% 71% 49% 65% 21% 35% 11% 8% 16% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Generally speaking, do you think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

49% 39% 12%

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 12

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 49% 40% 44% 50% 58% 36% 46% 45% 43% 30% 15% 14% 11% 7% 11% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Generally speaking, do you think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

49% 39% 12%

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 13

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 68% 50% 36% 40% 43% 52% 49% 21% 38% 50% 47% 45% 40% 37% 11% 12% 14% 13% 10% 9% 14% 1% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

PROPOSITION CC BALLOT TEST

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Proposition CC Ballot Test

This question was among 486 likely 2019 general election voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.45%. As you may know, currently there will be a question on the ballot this November known as Proposition CC. I am now going to read to you the language of the ballot question. After hearing it, please tell me if you would vote yes and approve it, or if you would vote no and reject it. The ballot question reads as… WITHOUT RAISING TAXES AND TO BETTER FUND PUBLIC SCHOOLS, HIGHER EDUCATION, AND ROADS, BRIDGES, AND TRANSIT, WITHIN A BALANCED BUDGET, MAY THE STATE KEEP AND SPEND ALL THE REVENUE IT ANNUALLY COLLECTS AFTER JUNE 30, 2019, BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY ALLOWED TO KEEP AND SPEND UNDER COLORADO LAW, WITH AN ANNUAL INDEPENDENT AUDIT TO SHOW HOW THE RETAINED REVENUES ARE SPENT? Now that you have heard the ballot question, would you vote yes and approve Proposition CC or would vote no and reject it?

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

Proposition CC Survey Demographics

Among Likely 2019 General Election Voters

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

14% 13% 18% 24% 31%

36% 34% 29% 1% Republican Democrat Unaffiliated Other

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47% 53% Male Female

White Hisapanic or Latino Black or African American Other Refused

82% 11% 2% 5%

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

Proposition CC Ballot Test

This question was among 486 likely 2019 general election voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.45%.

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

54% 30% 15% 1%

TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED

Definitely Yes, Approve 23% Probably Yes, Approve 31% Definitely No, Reject 17% Probably No, Reject 13% 55% 53% 34% 26% 10% 20% 1% 1% MEN WOMEN 32% 73% 60% 49% 14% 23% 17% 12% 16% 2% 1% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Proposition CC Ballot Test

This question was among 486 likely 2019 general election voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.45%.

54% 30% 15% 1%

TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED 18

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Definitely Yes, Approve 23% Probably Yes, Approve 31% Definitely No, Reject 17% Probably No, Reject 13% 65% 47% 56% 46% 58% 15% 37% 31% 37% 26% 18% 16% 13% 14% 15% 1% 3% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Proposition CC Ballot Test

This question was among 486 likely 2019 general election voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.45%.

54% 30% 15% 1%

TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED 19

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 60% 64% 50% 52% 50% 44% 53% 24% 22% 37% 30% 30% 38% 29% 16% 15% 11% 16% 18% 16% 16% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07 Definitely Yes, Approve 23% Probably Yes, Approve 31% Definitely No, Reject 17% Probably No, Reject 13%

VOTER FAMILIARITY OF THE TABOR AMENDMENT

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How familiar would you say you are with the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, also known as the TABOR Amendment in Colorado’s constitution? Would you say you are…

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

20% 39% 22% 16% 3%

VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

27% 14% 41% 37% 16% 27% 15% 17% 2% 4% MEN WOMEN

26% 20% 15% 33% 39% 45% 27% 22% 17% 11% 18% 19% 3% 2% 4% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

How familiar would you say you are with the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, also known as the TABOR Amendment in Colorado’s constitution? Would you say you are…

20% 39% 22% 16% 3%

VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 22

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 9% 20% 22% 29% 24% 36% 38% 41% 38% 43% 29% 24% 17% 14% 22% 25% 13% 16% 16% 8% 2% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

How familiar would you say you are with the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, also known as the TABOR Amendment in Colorado’s constitution? Would you say you are…

20% 39% 22% 16% 3%

VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 23

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

22% 13% 23% 17% 19% 26% 22% 44% 36% 38% 42% 39% 38% 38% 22% 13% 20% 25% 23% 25% 25% 10% 36% 20% 9% 11% 11% 10% 1% 1% 6% 7% 6% 1% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

TABOR AMENDMENT IMAGE RATING

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Regardless of how familiar you are with the TABOR Amendment; do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of it? (Asked to 404 respondents that were

familiar with TABOR, +/- 4.88% MoE)

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Very Favorable 18% Somewhat Favorable 28% Very Unfavorable 17% Somewhat Unfavorable 19% Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

46% 36% 18%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

51% 41% 35% 38% 14% 22% MEN WOMEN 60% 32% 47% 19% 53% 37% 22% 15% 17% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Regardless of how familiar you are with the TABOR Amendment; do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of it? (Asked to 404 respondents that were

familiar with TABOR, +/- 4.88% MoE) 46% 36% 18%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 26

Very Favorable 18% Somewhat Favorable 28% Very Unfavorable 17% Somewhat Unfavorable 19% Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 41% 55% 49% 51% 39% 30% 29% 42% 35% 45% 29% 16% 8% 14% 16% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Regardless of how familiar you are with the TABOR Amendment; do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of it? (Asked to 404 respondents that were

familiar with TABOR, +/- 4.88% MoE) 46% 36% 18%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 27

Very Favorable 18% Somewhat Favorable 28% Very Unfavorable 17% Somewhat Unfavorable 19% Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 41% 36% 47% 50% 48% 51% 50% 42% 48% 29% 35% 34% 32% 34% 17% 17% 24% 16% 18% 16% 16% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

28 Top Themes Keeping Government Spending in Check Holding Politicians Accountable Making Elected Officials Explain Spending Decisions

“Helps to keep a lid on rampant state government spending and returns excess money to the taxpayers.”

• Female, 55-64, Unaffiliated

“I like it because it keeps more money in the citizens pockets. It forces the government to have spending limits. It forces them to let the taxpayers vote on each tax

• increase. Basically, it gives citizens

more control over the government

• n how they spend their money. “
• Male, 45-54, Unaffiliated

“Politicians cannot be trusted. They spend every dime. It should be taken away from their hands.”

• Male, 65+, Republican

In your own words, being as descriptive as possible, please tell me why you have a favorable opinion of the TABOR Amendment.

“It keeps the politicians and government to be accountable of their spending.”

• Male, 35-44, Democrat

“It gives power to the

• people. I feel like it has

worked for many years. I want to see it continued.“

• Female, 65+, Republican

“It guarantees that the government can’t keep too much money from me, and the current Proposition CC would allow them to seriously infringe

• n the rights of the people. ”
• Male, 18-34, Democrat

“I like the fact that people are in control of the tax money.”

• Female, 55-64, Republican

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

29 Top Themes Negative Impact on Adequate Funding for Education, Transportation Preference for Elected Officials to Make Local Tax and Spending Decisions

“I think TABOR has made it nearly impossible for decent funding for our schools, roads, etc. Votes to increase taxes, even by a miniscule amount, cost the state a lot of money and rarely pass, resulting in poor schools, poor roads, poor infrastructure, and other public deficiencies here in

• Colorado. ”
• Female, 35-44, Democrat

“I believe that the people elect representatives to the Legislature and that the Legislature should have the right to raise or lower

• taxes. If people don’t like it, they

can vote their representatives and senators out of office. TABOR removes the ability of the state to respond to changing needs, particularly in economic downturns, and should actually be unconstitutional because it establishes a direct democracy rather than a republican form of government as required by the US Constitution.“

• Male, 45-54, Democrat

“The TABOR Amendment doesn’t allow the state to spend the money that they should on education. Our state is far behind other states because of the TABOR Amendment.”

• Female, 65+, Democrat

In your own words, being as descriptive as possible, please tell me why you have a unfavorable opinion of the TABOR Amendment.

“There is only one good thing

• ut of it, people having to

declare and explain where they money is going. That’s

• it. The rest is crap.”
• Female, 45-54, Unaffiliated

“The general public should not be allowed to vote on spending initiatives for which they have limited knowledge and understanding of the needs, purposes and benefits that the elected officials and budget career service people in the government understand.”

• Male, 45-54, Unaffiliated

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

VOTER OPINION OF THE TABOR AMENDMENT

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The TABOR Amendment

“As you may know, the TABOR Amendment has two main parts to it. The first limits the amount of revenue the State of Colorado can retain and spend, with the excess revenue getting refunded to taxpayers. While the second part requires voter approval for all tax increases at any level of government. Knowing this…”

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019

VOTER OPINION OF ALLOWING STATE TO KEEP TABOR REFUND REVENUE FOR NO SPECIFIC REASON

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Would you support or oppose a ballot measure that would allow the state of Colorado to retain excess revenue that would otherwise be refunded to taxpayers under the TABOR Amendment?

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Strongly Support 21% Somewhat Support 26% Strongly Oppose 23% Somewhat Oppose 16%

47% 39% 13% 1%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE REFUSED

49% 45% 41% 37% 9% 17% 1% 1% MEN WOMEN 30% 60% 49% 60% 24% 35% 11% 14% 14% 2% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Would you support or oppose a ballot measure that would allow the state of Colorado to retain excess revenue that would otherwise be refunded to taxpayers under the TABOR Amendment?

47% 39% 13% 1%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE REFUSED 34

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Strongly Support 21% Somewhat Support 26% Strongly Oppose 23% Somewhat Oppose 16% 53% 38% 52% 36% 51% 31% 47% 41% 50% 32% 14% 14% 7% 14% 15% 2% 1% 1% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Would you support or oppose a ballot measure that would allow the state of Colorado to retain excess revenue that would otherwise be refunded to taxpayers under the TABOR Amendment?

47% 39% 13% 1%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE REFUSED 35

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Strongly Support 21% Somewhat Support 26% Strongly Oppose 23% Somewhat Oppose 16% 55% 50% 41% 42% 36% 53% 50% 32% 32% 44% 43% 53% 33% 37% 11% 15% 15% 15% 11% 11% 13% 1% 2% 3% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

VOTER OPINION OF VOTER APPROVAL FOR TAX INCREASES

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As mentioned before, the TABOR Amendment requires voter approval for any proposed tax increases or bond measures that are put forth by state, city, county and local governments. This also applies to special districts such as schools, libraries, and fire departments. Knowing this, do you support or oppose this part of the TABOR Amendment?

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Strongly Support 30% Somewhat Support 32% Strongly Oppose 15% Somewhat Oppose 11%

62% 26% 12%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE REFUSED

63% 60% 29% 23% 8% 15% 1% MEN WOMEN 71% 52% 63% 21% 36% 21% 7% 12% 15% 2% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

As mentioned before, the TABOR Amendment requires voter approval for any proposed tax increases or bond measures that are put forth by state, city, county and local governments. This also applies to special districts such as schools, libraries, and fire departments. Knowing this, do you support or oppose this part of the TABOR Amendment?

62% 26% 12%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE REFUSED 38

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Strongly Support 30% Somewhat Support 32% Strongly Oppose 15% Somewhat Oppose 11% 64% 65% 59% 63% 59% 22% 23% 34% 23% 28% 12% 13% 7% 13% 12% 2% 1% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

As mentioned before, the TABOR Amendment requires voter approval for any proposed tax increases or bond measures that are put forth by state, city, county and local governments. This also applies to special districts such as schools, libraries, and fire departments. Knowing this, do you support or oppose this part of the TABOR Amendment?

62% 26% 12%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE REFUSED 39

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Strongly Support 30% Somewhat Support 32% Strongly Oppose 15% Somewhat Oppose 11% 60% 61% 67% 57% 64% 58% 66% 27% 25% 24% 28% 25% 32% 20% 12% 14% 8% 15% 10% 8% 15% 1% 2% 3% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

VOTER OPINION OF FULL REPEAL OF THE TABOR AMENDMENT

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Thinking ahead to the 2020 general election… If there was a measure on the Colorado ballot to fully repeal both parts of the TABOR Amendment from the Colorado state constitution, would you support or oppose the ballot measure?

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Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Strongly Support 17% Somewhat Support 19% Strongly Oppose 24% Somewhat Oppose 24%

36% 48% 16%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE REFUSED

37% 35% 54% 43% 9% 22% 1% MEN WOMEN 26% 53% 28% 61% 30% 53% 12% 15% 19% 1% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Thinking ahead to the 2020 general election… If there was a measure on the Colorado ballot to fully repeal both parts of the TABOR Amendment from the Colorado state constitution, would you support or oppose the ballot measure?

36% 48% 16%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE REFUSED 42

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Strongly Support 17% Somewhat Support 19% Strongly Oppose 24% Somewhat Oppose 24% 41% 26% 38% 30% 41% 44% 54% 51% 51% 43% 16% 19% 11% 19% 14% 1% 2% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Thinking ahead to the 2020 general election… If there was a measure on the Colorado ballot to fully repeal both parts of the TABOR Amendment from the Colorado state constitution, would you support or oppose the ballot measure?

36% 48% 16%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE REFUSED 43

Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Strongly Support 17% Somewhat Support 19% Strongly Oppose 24% Somewhat Oppose 24% 44% 37% 41% 23% 27% 43% 34% 40% 45% 49% 50% 52% 49% 53% 16% 18% 8% 25% 21% 8% 13% 1% 1% 1% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES

303-861-8585 www.MagellanStrategies.com

David Flaherty | Courtney Sievers Ryan Winger