COLORADO NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE VOTER OPINION SURVEY March 11 th 13 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

COLORADO NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE VOTER OPINION SURVEY

March 11th – 13th, 2019

1

Methodology

Ø Magellan Strategies is pleased to present the results of a 500n

live telephone survey of likely 2020 General Election voters in the state of Colorado.

Ø The interviews were conducted from March 11th – 13th, 2019. Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95%

confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population.

Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past general

election voter turnout demographics in Colorado.

Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project.

Courtney Sievers was the project director.

2

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

Survey Demographics

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

27% 16% 17% 19% 21%

30% 33% 35% 2% Republican Democrat Unaffiliated Other

3

48% 52% Male Female

White Hispanic Black or African American Other

80% 13% 2% 5%

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

Survey Demographics

33% 36% 28% 3%

Conservative Moderate Liberal Unsure 4

41% 25% 19% 15%

Suburban Area Big City Small Town Rural Area

Suburban Area Vs. Rural Area Ideology

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

KEY FINDINGS

5

Key Findings:

Ø At this time, likely 2020 Colorado general election

voters do not have an informed opinion of the National Popular Vote law, with only 34% of respondents having a favorable opinion of it, 39% having an unfavorable opinion, and 27% not having any opinion of the law.

Ø Voters are more familiar with the Electoral

College than the National Popular Vote law. Among all respondents, 49% said they had a favorable opinion of the Electoral College and 47% had an unfavorable opinion of it, and 4% had no opinion.

6

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

Key Findings:

Ø Colorado voters are evenly divided on a possible ballot

measure that would affirm or repeal the National Popular Vote law. Among all respondents, 47% of voters would vote yes and approve the law and 47% would vote no and reject it. Six percent of voters were undecided.

Ø Support for the NPV law is strongest among Democratic

and younger voters, while opposition is strongest among Republican and older voters. Unaffiliated voter opinion is evenly split, with 44% supporting the law and 48%

• pposing it.

Ø Voter intensity is stronger among voters that oppose the

law, with 35% of respondents saying they would definitely vote no and reject it compared to 23% of respondents saying they would definitely vote yes and approve it.

7

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

Key Findings:

Ø Opposition to the NPV ballot measure is not limited

to Republicans and Trump voters. Among respondents that oppose the ballot measure, 14% intend to vote for the Democratic Presidential nominee and 13% intend to vote for “some other candidate”.

Ø Historically, it has been very difficult for a Colorado

ballot measure to achieve voter approval when initial support at the start of the campaign is below 55%. This survey finds voter support for the NPV law at 47%. Among respondents that are very familiar with the NPV law voter support is 30% and opposition is 69%, indicating voter opinion declines the more they learn about the law.

8

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

VOTER FAMILIARITY WITH THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE LAW

9

10

How familiar would you say you are with a proposal in the legislature that will likely become law very soon called the “National Popular Vote Law” or the “National Popular Vote Interstate Agreement”?

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

26% 35% 11% 27% 1%

11

How familiar would you say you are with a proposal in the legislature that will likely become law very soon called the “National Popular Vote Law” or the “National Popular Vote Interstate Agreement”?

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

MEN WOMEN 18% 34% 35% 35% 13% 9% 33% 21% 1% 1% VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

12

How familiar would you say you are with a proposal in the legislature that will likely become law very soon called the “National Popular Vote Law” or the “National Popular Vote Interstate Agreement”?

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED 39% 17% 23% 31% 35% 39% 11% 13% 10% 18% 34% 27% 1% 1% 1% VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

13

How familiar would you say you are with a proposal in the legislature that will likely become law very soon called the “National Popular Vote Law” or the “National Popular Vote Interstate Agreement”?

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 16% 27% 29% 31% 31% 28% 35% 37% 37% 41% 15% 9% 7% 11% 10% 40% 27% 27% 21% 16% 1% 1% 1% VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

14

How familiar would you say you are with a proposal in the legislature that will likely become law very soon called the “National Popular Vote Law” or the “National Popular Vote Interstate Agreement”?

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

CD1 CD2 CD3 CD4 CD5 CD6 CD7 18% 28% 20% 25% 26% 32% 35% 31% 38% 36% 44% 39% 26% 31% 10% 10% 11% 12% 17% 10% 9% 40% 23% 33% 19% 17% 32% 26% 1% 1% 2% VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE LAW IMAGE

15

Regardless what you know about it, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the National Popular Vote Law?

16

Very Favorable 16% Somewhat Favorable 18% Very Unfavorable 28% Somewhat Unfavorable 11% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

34% 39% 27%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

38% 30% 31% 48% 32% 21% 1% MEN WOMEN 10% 54% 36% 72% 12% 38% 17% 34% 26% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Regardless what you know about it, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the National Popular Vote Law?

34% 39% 27%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 17

Very Favorable 16% Somewhat Favorable 18% Very Unfavorable 28% Somewhat Unfavorable 11% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 35% 29% 30% 39% 36% 34% 46% 39% 39% 42% 31% 25% 31% 21% 22% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Regardless what you know about it, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the National Popular Vote Law?

34% 39% 27%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 18

Very Favorable 16% Somewhat Favorable 18% Very Unfavorable 28% Somewhat Unfavorable 11% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 33% 48% 21% 38% 29% 42% 24% 30% 37% 43% 46% 45% 28% 49% 37% 15% 34% 16% 26% 30% 27% 2% CD1 CD2 CD3 CD4 CD5 CD6 CD7

ELECTORAL COLLEGE IMAGE

19

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

• f the Electoral College process of electing the

president and vice president of the United States?

20

Very Favorable 32% Somewhat Favorable 17% Very Unfavorable 27% Somewhat Unfavorable 20% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

49% 47% 4%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

41% 56% 54% 41% 5% 3% MEN WOMEN 84% 23% 44% 14% 73% 50% 1% 4% 6% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

• f the Electoral College process of electing the

president and vice president of the United States?

49% 47% 4%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 21

Very Favorable 32% Somewhat Favorable 17% Very Unfavorable 27% Somewhat Unfavorable 20% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 41% 48% 53% 49% 55% 53% 49% 43% 47% 43% 6% 3% 4% 4% 2% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

• f the Electoral College process of electing the

president and vice president of the United States?

49% 47% 4%

TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 22

Very Favorable 32% Somewhat Favorable 17% Very Unfavorable 27% Somewhat Unfavorable 20% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 35% 41% 62% 58% 61% 45% 44% 61% 58% 33% 35% 39% 52% 49% 4% 2% 5% 7% 3% 7% CD1 CD2 CD3 CD4 CD5 CD6 CD7

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE LAW BALLOT TEST

23

National Popular Vote Law Ballot Test

24

As you may know, there is an effort underway that would give Colorado voters the opportunity to vote to approve or reject the National Popular V

• te
• law. I am now going to read to you the language of a ballot question that

would do that. After hearing the question, please tell me if you would vote yes and approve it, or if you would vote no and reject it. The ballot question reads as… SHALL THE FOLLOWING ACT OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY BE APPROVED: AN ACT, CONCERNING ADOPTION OF AN AGREEMENT AMONG THE STATES TO ELECT THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES BY NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE, BEING SENATE BILL 19-042? Now that you have heard the ballot question, would you vote yes and approve the National Popular V

• te law or would vote no and reject it?

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

25

Definitely Yes, Approve 23% Probably Yes, Approve 24% Definitely No, Reject 35% Probably No, Reject 12%

National Popular Vote Law Ballot Test

Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

47% 47% 6%

TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED

53% 40% 37% 55% 9% 5% MEN WOMEN 15% 77% 44% 81% 14% 48% 3% 8% 8% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

National Popular Vote Law Ballot Test

47% 47% 6%

TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED 26

Definitely Yes, Approve 23% Probably Yes, Approve 24% Definitely No, Reject 35% Probably No, Reject 12% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 49% 49% 42% 50% 43% 43% 45% 51% 43% 51% 9% 6% 7% 6% 5% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

National Popular Vote Law Ballot Test

47% 47% 6%

TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED 27

Definitely Yes, Approve 23% Probably Yes, Approve 24% Definitely No, Reject 35% Probably No, Reject 12% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 62% 53% 35% 41% 42% 50% 39% 33% 40% 58% 49% 52% 46% 52% 5% 8% 7% 8% 6% 4% 9% 2% CD1 CD2 CD3 CD4 CD5 CD6 CD7

28

LOOKING AHEAD… 2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT TEST

29

Definitely Dem Candidate 29% Probably Dem Candidate 11% Definitely Trump 26% Probably Trump 7% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019

If the election for President were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican Party’s candidate, the Democratic Party’s candidate or some

• ther candidate?

40% 33% 16% 10% 1%

TOTAL DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE TOTAL TRUMP SOME OTHER CANDIDATE UNDECIDED REFUSED

46% 34% 28% 38% 17% 15% 9% 12% 1% 1% MEN WOMEN 5% 80% 31% 79% 3% 23% 7% 12% 25% 7% 3% 20% 2% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

If the election for President were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican Party’s candidate, the Democratic Party’s candidate or some

• ther candidate?

40% 33% 16% 10% 1%

TOTAL DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE TOTAL TRUMP SOME OTHER CANDIDATE UNDECIDED REFUSED 30

Definitely Dem Candidate 29% Probably Dem Candidate 11% Definitely Trump 26% Probably Trump 7% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 45% 33% 42% 37% 37% 26% 31% 41% 30% 41% 20% 21% 11% 14% 11% 9% 14% 4% 18% 9% 1% 1% 1% 2% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

If the election for President were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican Party’s candidate, the Democratic Party’s candidate or some

• ther candidate?

40% 33% 16% 10% 1%

TOTAL DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE TOTAL TRUMP SOME OTHER CANDIDATE UNDECIDED REFUSED 31

Definitely Dem Candidate 29% Probably Dem Candidate 11% Definitely Trump 26% Probably Trump 7% Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 50% 55% 25% 26% 28% 46% 41% 17% 20% 40% 52% 48% 26% 34% 19% 13% 19% 9% 16% 19% 15% 12% 12% 14% 10% 7% 8% 11% 2% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% CD1 CD2 CD3 CD4 CD5 CD6 CD7

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 Louisville, CO 80027 303-861-8585 | www.MagellanStrategies.com

32

David Flaherty | Courtney Sievers Ryan Winger