ENERGY & VOTERS Poll Briefing Luncheon Survey of North Carolina - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ENERGY & VOTERS Poll Briefing Luncheon

Survey of North Carolina Voters

Prepared for Conservatives for Clean Energy May 3, 2016

• Methodology
• NC Voter History Data
• Voter Intensity and Ideological Overview
• Issue Overview
• Ballot Test
• Demographic Overview

Table of Contents

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• This poll of 800 registered voters living in North

Carolina was conducted via telephone by professional interviewers over the course of two nights, April 18 - 19, 2016. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter participation from past Presidential Election election cycles.

• The poll of 800 likely general election voters has

an accuracy of +/- 3.46% at a 95% confidence interval.

• Paul Shumaker served as project manager for

the survey.

Methodology

3

North Carolina Voter Registration Trend Data

Chart shows voter registration trend of North Carolina voters since 2004. Data source, North Carolina State Board of Elections –Percentages show market shares.

4

47.52% 45.93% 45.79% 44.73% 43.28% 41.92% 41.21% 40.51% 34.53% 34.70% 31.98% 31.63% 30.97% 30.49% 30.59% 30.63% 17.96% 19.37% 22.23% 23.64% 25.75% 27.59% 28.19% 28.86% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% May 2004 May 2006 November 2008 November 2010 November 2012 November 2014 November 2015 April 2016

NC Voter Registration Trends

Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated

Partisan Ideological Trends 1998 - 2016

Chart tracks the self-described ideology of North Carolina voters from 1998 –

• 2016. Source, North Carolina polling data from Capitol Communications,

conducted by Diversified Research, Inc.

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33.7% 29.5% 22.7% 24.0% 16.4% 23.1% 14.5% 11.4%

• 18.7%
• 12.2%
• 24.0%
• 19.2%

62.9% 59.2% 75.6% 79.1% 70.4% 74.8% 16.2% 15.2% 24.8% 14.4% 16.4% 20.0%

• 40.00%
• 20.00%

0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% October 1998 October 2000 October 2012 October 2014 August 2015 April 2016

Partisan Ideological Trends

North Carolina Democrats Republicans Unaffilated

Voting Intensity

WHEN THERE IS A NOVEMBER ELECTION IN NORTH CAROLINA, DO YOU ALWAYS VOTE, ALMOST ALWAYS VOTE, VOTE MOST OF THE TIME, VOTE SOME OF THE TIME, HARDLY EVER VOTE, OR NEVER VOTE?

6

N = Always Almost Always Most of the Time Question Sample 800 85.5% 7.0% 7.0% RDU - DMA 251 87.6% 6.8% 5.6% CLT - DMA 214 84.1% 7.9% 7.9% GSO - DMA 144 83.3% 7.6% 9.0% Wilmington - DMA 40 82.5% 7.5% 10.0% Greenville/NB - DMA 85 85.9% 4.7% 9.4% Asheville - DMA 66 87.9% 6.1% 6.1% Republican 286 85.7% 8.0% 6.3% Democrat 338 86.7% 4.1% 9.2% Unaffiliated 165 82.4% 11.5% 6.1% Always "D" Voter 144 85.4% 4.2% 10.4% Always "R" Voter 118 86.4% 3.4% 10.2% Splits-Ticket 153 79.7% 13.7% 6.5% White 575 86.8% 7.3% 5.9% Non-White 191 84.3% 3.7% 12.0% Male 376 83.5% 8.8% 7.7% Female 424 87.3% 5.4% 7.3%

Ideological Profile of Key Voting Subsets

IF YOU HAD TO LABEL YOURSELF, WOULD YOU SAY YOU ARE A LIBERAL, A MODERATE, OR A CONSERVATIVE IN YOUR POLITICAL BELIEFS?

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N = Liberal Moderate Conservative Ideological Center Ideological Range April 2016 800 20.8% 30.3% 43.9% 23.1% RDU - DMA 251 25.1% 31.1% 37.8% 12.7%

• 10.4%

CLT -DMA 214 17.8% 29.9% 47.2% 29.4% 6.3% GSO - DMA 144 22.2% 24.3% 49.3% 27.1% 4.0% Wilmington -DMA 40 25.0% 30.0% 40.0% 15.0%

• 8.1%

Greenville/NB -DMA 85 16.5% 28.2% 48.2% 31.7% 8.6% Asheville -DMA 66 13.6% 43.9% 40.9% 27.3% 4.2% Urban 163 24.5% 30.7% 38.7% 14.2%

• 8.9%

Suburban 329 19.5% 33.7% 42.2% 22.7%

• 0.4%

Rural 289 20.8% 25.6% 48.8% 28.0% 4.9% Republican 286 2.1% 18.9% 76.9% 74.8% 51.7% Democrat 338 40.2% 32.8% 21.0%

• 19.2%
• 42.3%

Unaffiliated 165 13.9% 44.2% 33.9% 20.0%

• 3.1%

Always "D" Voter 144 42.4% 23.6% 25.0%

• 17.4%
• 40.5%

Always "R" Voter 118 4.2% 5.9% 84.7% 80.5% 57.4% Splits-Ticket 153 13.7% 52.9% 29.4% 15.7%

• 7.4%

Entire Life 383 15.4% 30.0% 50.1% 34.7% 11.6% 20+years 212 20.8% 30.7% 39.2% 18.4%

• 4.7%

11-20 -years 111 31.5% 26.1% 39.6% 8.1%

• 15.0%

6-10 years 55 29.1% 43.6% 27.3%

• 1.8%
• 24.9%

Male 376 18.9% 31.6% 45.5% 26.6% 3.5% Female 424 22.4% 29.0% 42.5% 20.1%

• 3.0%

A Look Beyond the Ideological Labels

Probe: If Liberal, then ask would you say you are very liberal or somewhat liberal; if conservative, then ask would you say you are very conservative or somewhat conservative?

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Urban Suburban Rural Republican Democrat Unaffiliated N=800

N=800

Vey Liberal Somewhat Liberal Moderate Somewhat Conservative Very Conservative

What Are Voters Angry About?

There has been a lot of media attention about voters being angry this election

• year. In your opinion, what makes you most angry about our elected government

leaders in Raleigh and Washington? (Open-ended)

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16.1% 11.4% 11.0% 10.4% 7.4% 4.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%

N=800

What Voters Had to Say

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HOW THERE IS NO MIDDLE GROUND ANYMORE/ PARTIES HAVE GONE SO FAR ON EACH SIDE THAT THEY WONT EVEN DISCUSS IMPORTANT SITUATIONS IND M MOD 26-40 THAT BOTH PARTIES CAN'T AGREE ON ANYTHING GOP F VERY CONS 65+ THE LANGUAGE AND THE ATTITUDE IS AWFUL NEVER HEARD IT BEFORE GOP M MOD 65+ THE FACT THAT THEY FIGHT AMONGST THEMSELVES INSTEAD OF WORKING TOGETHER. DEM F MOD 55-64 THE GOVERNMENT WORKING TOGETHER DEM M MOD 55-64 THEY ACT LIKE CHILDREN DEM F VERY LIB 55-64 THE GOVERNMENT LEADERS NEED TO WORK TOGETHER TO GET THINGS DONE DEM F VERY CONS 26-40 THEY CAN'T FIND COMMON SOLUTIONS GOP M VERY CONS 65+ I GUESS THE WAY THEY TEAR INTO EACH OTHER./IT'S JUST LIKE THEY'RE FUSSING AND ARGUING AND SAYING EVERYTHING BAD THEY CAN. GOP F VERY CONS 65+ THEY ARE NOT WORKING TOGETHER IND F MOD 55-64 A LOT OF DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS GOP M VERY CONS 55-64 THEY CAN'T WORK TOGETHER TO COME UP WITH IDEAS THAT WORK FOR MOST PEOPLE. GOP F MOD 55-64 THEY'RE ALL CONFUSED AND FIGHT TOO MUCH. DEM M SMWT LIB 65+ STATE AND GOVERNMENT LEVELS NOT GETTING ALONG GOP M VERY CONS 55-64 ALOT OF BIKERING / NOT GETTING ENOUGH DONE IND M MOD 55-64 I THINK THEY ARE ALL CRAZY, THEY ARE ALWAYS FIGHTING IND F DK 55-64 I'M NOT HAPPY ABOUT THE BICKERING BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES. DEM F SMWT LIB 41-54 BEING OR ACTING LIKE IDIOTS. GOP F MOD 55-64 THEY HAVE A THREE YEAR OLD MENTALITY. THE FIGHTING THAT GOES ON BETWEEN CANDIDATES. DEM F SMWT LIB 65+ THE FIGHTING. GOP F VERY CONS 65+ THEY ARGUE WITH EACH OTHER INSTEAD OF GETTING THINGS DONE DEM M SMWT LIB 65+ LACK OF CONCERN AND ACTION/ BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT TOGETHER CAN COMPROMISE DEM M DK 65+ THEY FIGHT TOO MUCH. GOP F VERY CONS 65+ I WISH THEY WOULDN'T SNARL AT EACH OTHER. I'M NOT ANGRY BUT WISH THEY WOULDN'T SNARL AT EACH OTHER. IND F MOD 65+ JUST THE WAY TREAT EACH OTHER DEM F VERY CONS 65+

Off-Shore Drilling for Oil and Natural Gas

STATE LEADERS ARE DEBATING MANY LAWS TO IMPACT CURRENT AND FUTURE ENERGY SOURCES. WHEN IT COMES TO YOUR OPINION ABOUT STATE LEADERS, PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT OR OPPOSE A LAWMAKER OR CANDIDATE: "A LAWMAKER OR CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS OFFSHORE DRILLING FOR OIL OR GAS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA?"

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N= Support Strongly Support Oppose Strongly Oppose DK/ Refused

February 2015 800 57.5% 30.5% 34.5% 20.1% 8.0% April 2016 800 47.8% 26.3% 42.3% 27.1% 10.0% RDU - DMA 251

43.0% 23.5% 49.8% 34.7% 7.2%

CLT - DMA 214

50.0% 28.5% 40.2% 23.8% 9.8%

GSO - DMA 144

54.2% 26.4% 32.6% 22.0% 13.2%

Wilmington - DMA 40

35.0% 20.0% 55.0% 32.5% 10.0%

Greenville/NB - DMA 85

49.4% 27.1% 41.2% 25.9% 9.4%

Asheville - DMA 66

50.0% 31.8% 34.8% 18.2% 15.2%

Republican 286

67.5% 43.4% 24.1% 12.2% 8.4%

Democrat 338

33.1% 13.0% 56.2% 37.3% 10.7%

Unaffiliated 165

43.6% 23.6% 45.5% 32.7% 10.9%

Always "D" Voter 144

32.6% 16.0% 59.0% 32.6% 8.3%

Always "R" Voter 118

71.2% 47.5% 19.5% 9.3% 9.3%

Splits-Ticket 153

41.2% 22.9% 46.4% 30.7% 12.4%

McCrory Voter 349

67.0% 41.0% 24.6% 11.2% 8.3%

Cooper Voter 325

30.2% 12.0% 62.2% 44.3% 7.7%

Undecided Governor 102

39.2% 21.6% 40.2% 26.5% 20.6%

Male

376

55.6% 33.8% 37.0% 25.3% 7.4%

Female

424

40.8% 19.6% 46.9% 28.8% 12.3%

47.8% 26.3% 42.3% 27.1% 10.0% 57.5% 30.5% 34.5% 20.1% 8.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Support Strongly Support Oppose Strongly Opose DK/ Refused

N=800

April 2016 February 2015

Overall support for offshore drilling has dropped about 10 points since

• 2015. Republican support remains

strong but is down from 78.1% in 2015, Unaffiliated voters dropped from 58.1% and Democratic voters dropped from 41.4%.

Policies to Encourage New Nuclear Plants

"A LAWMAKER OR CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS POLICIES THAT ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW NUCLEAR ENERGY PLANTS IN NORTH CAROLINA?”

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N= Support Strongly Support Oppose Strongly Oppose DK/ Refused

February 2015 800 50.4% 24.8% 40.6% 24.9% 9.0% April 2016 800 42.1% 18.8% 47.5% 28.0% 10.4% RDU - DMA 251

38.6% 18.7% 54.2% 33.9% 7.2%

CLT - DMA 214

43.0% 19.2% 43.5% 24.8% 13.6%

GSO - DMA 144

44.4% 22.2% 42.4% 26.4% 13.2%

Wilmington - DMA 40

57.5% 22.5% 30.0% 22.5% 12.5%

Greenville/NB - DMA 85

41.2% 14.1% 51.8% 30.6% 7.1%

Asheville - DMA 66

39.4% 13.6% 51.5% 19.7% 9.1%

Republican 286

53.8% 28.7% 36.4% 20.6% 9.8%

Democrat 338

32.0% 12.7% 59.2% 36.4% 8.9%

Unaffiliated 165

41.8% 13.3% 45.5% 24.8% 12.7%

Always "D" Voter 144

32.6% 11.8% 59.7% 38.2% 7.6%

Always "R" Voter 118

50.8% 28.8% 41.5% 25.4% 7.6%

Splits-Ticket 153

41.2% 21.6% 41.8% 21.6% 17.0%

McCrory Voter 349

53.0% 27.2% 38.7% 20.9% 8.3%

Cooper Voter 325

32.6% 11.4% 58.5% 35.7% 8.9%

Undecided Governor 102

32.4% 10.8% 46.1% 29.4% 21.6%

Male

376

51.1% 25.0% 39.6% 23.4% 9.3%

Female

424

34.2% 13.2% 54.5% 32.1% 11.3%

42.1% 18.8% 47.5% 28.0% 10.4% 50.4% 24.8% 40.6% 24.9% 9.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Support Strongly Support Oppose Strongly Opose DK/ Refused

N=800

April 2016 February 2015

Overall support was down compared to 2015 data, with the greatest drop

• f support being among Unaffiliated

Voters and Republican Voters

Renewable Energy Options

"A LAWMAKER OR CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS POLICIES THAT ENCOURAGE RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS SUCH AS WIND AND SOLAR POWER?"

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N= Support Strongly Support Oppose Strongly Oppose DK/ Refused

February 2015 800 86.8% 60.3% 10.3% 4.6% 3.0% April 2016 800 86.5% 63.8% 10.6% 6.0% 2.9% RDU - DMA 251

87.6% 68.1% 11.2% 8.4% 1.2%

CLT - DMA 214

84.1% 59.8% 12.1% 6.1% 3.7%

GSO - DMA 144

86.1% 66.0% 6.9% 2.1% 6.9%

Wilmington - DMA 40

95.0% 65.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Greenville/NB - DMA 85

88.2% 61.2% 10.6% 7.1% 1.2%

Asheville - DMA 66

83.3% 57.6% 16.7% 6.1% 0.0%

Republican 286

78.0% 53.8% 17.1% 9.4% 4.9%

Democrat 338

92.6% 74.3% 6.5% 3.8% 0.9%

Unaffiliated 165

88.5% 58.8% 8.5% 4.8% 3.0%

Republican Men 144

73.6% 47.9% 23.6% 14.6% 2.8%

Republican Women 142

82.4% 59.9% 10.6% 4.2% 7.0%

Always "D" Voter 144

93.6% 77.2% 6.1% 3.5% 0.3%

Always "R" Voter 118

77.5% 48.5% 18.1% 9.6% 4.4%

Splits-Ticket 153

88.9% 62.7% 7.2% 5.2% 3.9%

McCrory Voter 349

76.8% 48.7% 18.9% 10.3% 4.3%

Cooper Voter 325

96.3% 80.9% 3.1% 1.8% 0.6%

Undecided Governor 102

87.3% 60.8% 7.8% 5.9% 4.9%

Male

376

84.8% 60.9% 13.0% 8.8% 2.1%

Female

424

88.0% 66.3% 8.5% 3.5% 3.5%

86.5% 63.8% 10.6% 6.0% 86.8% 60.3% 10.3% 4.6% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Support Strongly Support Oppose Strongly Opose

N=800

April 2016 February 2015

Support for renewable energy options such as wind and solar power remain relatively unchanged among all voting

• groups. There is nearly a ten-point

gap between Republican men and Republican women on the issue.

Energy Efficiency Upgrades

“A LAWMAKER OR CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS LEGISLATION THAT WOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WAYS FOR HOME OR BUSINESS OWNERS TO FINANCE ENERGY EFFICIENCY UPGRADES SUCH AS IMPROVED INSULATION, LIGHTING OR WINDOWS?”

14

N= Support Strongly Support Oppose Strongly Oppose DK/ Refused

February 2015 800 84.9% 60.8% 10.8% 6.1% 4.4% April 2016 800 87.6% 60.5% 8.9% 4.1% 3.5% RDU - DMA 251

89.6% 66.5% 8.4% 5.6% 2.0%

CLT - DMA 214

83.6% 51.9% 10.3% 3.3% 6.1%

GSO - DMA 144

86.8% 59.0% 8.3% 4.9% 4.9%

Wilmington - DMA 40

95.0% 70.0% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0%

Greenville/NB - DMA 85

91.8% 69.4% 5.9% 3.5% 2.4%

Asheville - DMA 66

84.8% 51.5% 13.6% 1.5% 1.5%

Republican 286

82.5% 54.5% 14.3% 7.0% 3.1%

Democrat 338

92.0% 67.2% 5.3% 1.5% 2.7%

Unaffiliated 165

88.5% 57.6% 6.1% 4.2% 5.5%

Always "D" Voter 144

90.3% 68.8% 8.3% 2.1% 1.4%

Always "R" Voter 118

81.6% 50.5% 15.0% 7.2% 3.4%

Splits-Ticket 153

87.6% 59.5% 4.6% 2.6% 7.8% McCrory Voter

349

81.4% 53.9% 15.8% 7.4% 2.9% Cooper Voter

325

96.6% 69.8% 1.8% 0.6% 1.5% Undecided Governor

102

82.4% 51.0% 5.9% 2.9% 11.8% Male

376

87.5% 59.6% 9.3% 5.3% 3.2% Female

424

87.7% 61.3% 8.5% 3.1% 3.8%

87.6% 60.5% 8.9% 4.1% 3.5% 84.9% 60.8% 10.8% 6.1% 4.4% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Support Strongly Support Oppose Strongly Opose DK/ Refused

N=800

April 2016 February 2015

Support is slightly stronger than in 2015, with Unaffiliated voters moving from 81.8% in 2015, to 88.5% in 2016. Republicans moved from 78.1% to 82.5% with Democrats unchanged at 91.8% to 92%

Hydro-Fracking

"A LAWMAKER OR CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS THE DRILLING OF NATURAL GAS THROUGH A PROCESS KNOWN AS HYDRO-FRACKING?"

15

N= Support Strongly Support Oppose Strongly Oppose DK/ Refused

February 2015 800 39.5% 22.3% 44.8% 33.4% 15.8% April 2016 800 29.8% 15.0% 52.8% 39.5% 17.6% RDU - DMA 251

24.7% 13.9% 58.6% 46.6% 16.7%

CLT - DMA 214

34.1% 15.4% 48.6% 35.0% 17.3%

GSO - DMA 144

29.2% 14.6% 51.4% 39.6% 19.4%

Wilmington - DMA 40

32.5% 12.5% 50.0% 30.0% 17.5%

Greenville/NB - DMA 85

35.3% 18.8% 40.0% 30.6% 24.7%

Asheville - DMA 66

27.3% 15.2% 63.6% 43.9% 9.1%

Republican 286

48.6% 24.8% 35.3% 22.4% 16.1%

Democrat 338

16.6% 7.4% 66.9% 53.3% 16.6%

Unaffiliated 165

24.8% 13.3% 53.3% 43.0% 21.8%

Republican Men 144

54.2% 29.9% 34.7% 21.5% 11.1%

Republican Women 142

43.0% 19.7% 35.9% 23.2% 21.1%

Always "D" Voter 144

20.1% 6.9% 66.0% 47.2% 13.9%

Always "R" Voter 118

46.6% 23.7% 33.1% 19.5% 20.3%

Splits-Ticket 153

22.2% 15.0% 57.5% 44.4% 20.3%

McCrory Voter 349

47.6% 25.5% 34.7% 20.9% 17.8%

Cooper Voter 325

13.2% 5.2% 75.4% 60.9% 11.4% Undecided Governor

102

23.5% 9.8% 41.2% 32.4% 35.3%

Male

376

34.6% 18.4% 50.5% 37.2% 4.9%

Female

424

25.5% 12.0% 54.5% 41.5% 20.0%

29.8% 15.0% 52.8% 39.5% 17.6% 39.5% 22.3% 44.8% 33.4% 15.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Support Strongly Support Oppose Strongly Opose DK/ Refused

N=800

April 2016 February 2015

Voters continue to be opposed to hydro- fracking with intensity being more than 2 to 1 between those who strongly

• ppose to those who strongly favor.

Providers of Electricity

Which of the following companies or entities provide the electricity you use at home? 16

49.3% 17.8% 19.8% 9.3% 3.0% 1.0% 50.5% 18.5% 17.3% 9.5% 2.3% 2.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Duke Energy Duke Energy/Progress Local Electric Co-op Town or City Other DK/Refused

N=800

April 2016 February 2015

N= Duke Energy Duke Energy/Progress Local Electric Co-op Town or City Other DK/Refused

February 2015 800 50.5% 18.5% 17.3% 9.5% 2.3% 2.0% April 2016 800 49.3% 17.8% 19.8% 9.3% 3.0% 1.0% RDU - DMA 251

37.8% 32.7% 17.9% 9.2% 0.8% 1.6%

CLT - DMA 214

57.0% 8.4% 19.6% 10.3% 4.2% 0.5%

GSO - DMA 144

70.1% 5.6% 12.5% 9.0% 2.1% 0.7%

Wilmington - DMA 40

42.5% 17.5% 35.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5%

Greenville/NB - DMA 85

28.2% 11.8% 31.8% 15.3% 11.8% 1.2%

Asheville - DMA 66

53.0% 25.8% 18.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Electricity Rates

Which of the following do you think is the number one cause for electricity rates to increase in North Carolina?

Higher profits and lack of competition continue to dominate across partisan

• lines. Republicans put

renewable mandates 3rd, while Democrats and Unaffiliated voters put them last.

38.9% 24.0% 9.9% 8.6% 8.5% 10.1% 33.3% 28.1% 12.8% 8.0% 7.1% 10.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Higher Profits Lack of Competition Supply and Demand Overall Cost/Incrs Renewable Mandates DK/ Refused

N=800

April 2016 February 2015 N= Higher Profits Lack of Competition Supply and Demand Overall Cost/Incrs Renewable Mandates DK/ Refused

February 2015 800 33.3% 28.1% 12.8% 8.0% 7.1% 10.8% April 2016 800 38.9% 24.0% 9.9% 8.6% 8.5% 10.1% Republican 286

35.7% 24.1% 10.1% 7.7% 13.6% 8.7%

Democrat 338

40.5% 24.6% 10.4% 8.0% 4.7% 11.8%

Unaffiliated 165

40.0% 23.6% 8.5% 11.5% 7.3% 9.1%

Always "D" Voter 144

46.5% 15.3% 11.0% 8.5% 4.9% 14.6%

Always "R" Voter 118

38.1% 22.9% 10.9% 7.5% 12.7% 6.8%

Splits-Ticket 153

37.9% 24.8% 8.5% 13.7% 7.8% 7.2%

McCrory Voter 349

37.0% 23.5% 9.5% 8.0% 15.2% 6.9%

Cooper Voter 325

43.4% 24.3% 9.5% 8.0% 2.2% 12.6%

Undecided Governor 102 35.3% 19.6% 12.7% 13.7% 3.9% 14.7% Male

376

30.9% 25.0% 12.0% 10.4% 11.7% 10.1% Female

424

46.0% 23.1% 8.0% 7.1% 5.7% 10.1%

17

Energy Policy Options

As you may know, state leaders are discussing several changes to our state’s current energy

• policies. Which of the following do you think is most important to you and you think should be

a priority for lawmakers to consider?

Voters support for investing in new clean energy has increased since 2015. The small gender gap on the issue is driven by Unaffiliated voters. New clean energy policies continue to be the first choice among all voting groups.

N= New Clean Energy More Competition Oil/Gas Exploration Low Energy Costs Alternatives Support Use

• f Coal

DK/Refused February 2015 800 47.5% 20.5% 15.1% 6.4% 5.9% 4.6% April 2016 800 53.6% 18.6% 10.9% 5.9% 5.8% 5.3% Republican 286

36.7% 25.5% 17.1% 3.8% 9.8% 7.0%

Democrat 338

69.2% 11.5% 6.5% 6.5% 2.7% 3.6%

Unaffiliated 165

52.1% 20.6% 9.1% 7.9% 4.8% 5.5%

Unaffiliated Men 86

40.7% 22.1% 10.5% 12.8% 7.0% 7.0%

Unaffiliated Women 79

64.6% 19.0% 7.6% 2.5% 2.5% 3.8%

Always "D" Voter 144

66.0% 8.3% 9.7% 9.7% 2.8% 3.5%

Always "R" Voter 118

34.7% 23.7% 16.1% 4.2% 15.3% 5.9%

Splits-Ticket 153

56.9% 23.5% 5.9% 5.2% 3.3% 5.2%

McCrory Voter 349

35.8% 26.6% 15.2% 4.9% 10.3% 7.2%

Cooper Voter 325

72.3% 10.2% 5.2% 7.4% 1.8% 3.1%

Undecided Governor 102

55.9% 16.7% 12.7% 4.9% 2.9% 6.9%

Male

376

51.9% 19.1% 12.2% 6.4% 6.9% 3.5%

Female

424

55.2% 18.2% 9.7% 5.4% 4.7% 6.8%

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2007 REPS Law

In 2007, the state legislature passed a standard that requires public utilities to increase their use of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind to 12.5% by the year 2021. Would you say you support or oppose this legislation?

N =

Support Oppose DK/Refused

February 2015 800 69.6% 23.0% 7.1% April 2016 800 74.8% 21.1% 4.1% Republican 286 64.7% 31.5% 3.8% Democrat 338 84.0% 12.7% 3.3% Unaffiliated 165 72.7% 21.2% 6.1% Liberal 166 91.0% 7.2% 1.8% Moderate 242 81.0% 15.3% 3.7% Conservative 351 64.1% 32.2% 3.7% Urban 163 81.0% 14.7% 4.3% Suburban 329 77.5% 19.1% 3.3% Rural 289 70.2% 24.9% 4.8% Always "D" Voter 144 78.5% 17.4% 4.2% Always "R" Voter 118 63.6% 32.2% 4.2% Splits-Ticket 153 77.1% 18.3% 4.6% Entire Life 383 73.4% 22.2% 4.4% 20+years 212 75.5% 20.8% 3.8% 11-20 - years 111 76.6% 20.7% 2.7% 6-10 years 55 78.2% 16.4% 5.5% Male 376 73.4% 22.9% 3.7% Female 424 75.9% 19.6% 4.5%

74.8% 21.1% 4.1% 69.6% 23.0% 7.1% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Support Oppose DK/ Refused

N=800

April 2016 February 2015

Support for the legislation remains strong with all voting groups. The issue maintains a minimum support level over 60% with all key voting groups.

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Message Push on 2007 REPS Law

Those opposed to the renewable standard were asked a series of questions, if they would still be opposed if they knew that; cost was <$2.00 on your electricity bill, there are over 25,000 jobs in NC related to the industry, new technology will likely lead to low costs and 75% of new projects have gone to rural areas.

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0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% <$2.00 on your Utility Bill 25,000 New Jobs Created Likely Lower Energy Cost in the Future 80% of Jobs go to Rural Areas of North Caorlina

N=800, April 2016

Support Oppose DK/Refused

April 2016 N =

Now Support Still Opposed DK/Refused

<$2.00 on your Utility Bill 169 24.9% 68.6% 6.5% 25,000 New Jobs Created 169 33.1% 56.8% 10.1%

Likely Lower Energy Cost in the Future

169 46.2% 43.8% 10.1% 80% of Jobs go to Rural Areas of North Carolina 169 37.9% 49.7% 12.4%

Monopoly or Options for Consumers

When it comes to where you purchase the electricity needed to run your home, do you think North Carolina consumers have options or do you feel the public utilities have a monopoly? Do you think state and local officials should work to provide consumers of electricity more options on where they can purchase their power or would you say you are satisfied with our current system of public utilities?

21

10.6% 84.9% 4.5% 8.8% 86.4% 4.9% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Have Options Have a Monopoly DK/Refused

N=800

April 2016 Februrary 2015 67.1% 27.0% 5.9% 69.5% 26.5% 4.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% Provide More Options Satisfied Current System DK/ Refused

N=800

April 2016 February 2015

N = Consumers Have Options Utilities Have Monopoly Dk/Refused February 2015 800 8.8% 86.4% 4.9% April 2016 800 10.6% 84.9% 4.5% Liberals 166 10.2% 88.0% 1.8% Moderates 242 12.4% 85.5% 2.1% Conservatives 351 9.4% 84.0% 6.6% Republican 286 10.8% 83.6% 5.6% Democrat 338 10.4% 85.5% 4.1% Unaffiliated 165 11.5% 86.1% 2.4% Male 376 10.9% 84.8% 4.3% Female 424 10.4% 84.9% 4.7%

N =

Provide More Options Satisfied Current System DK/ Refused

February 2015 800 67.1% 27.0% 5.9% April 2016 800 67.1% 27.0% 5.9% Republican 286 65.4% 28.0% 6.6% Democrat 338 67.8% 27.2% 5.0% Unaffiliated 165 69.1% 24.8% 6.1% Liberal 166 73.5% 22.9% 3.6% Moderate 242 69.8% 24.0% 6.2% Conservative 351 62.1% 31.6% 6.3%

Third Party Sales

There has been discussion about allowing third party energy sales in North Carolina. Third-party sales will allow other companies to compete with the public utility in your area and provide consumers with more choices for service and pricing. Do you think lawmakers should pass legislation that would allow for third-party energy sales to consumers?

22

72.0% 16.3% 11.8% 78.8% 12.0% 9.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% Yes No DK/ Refused

N=800

April 2016 February 2015

N = Yes No DK/ Refused

February 2015 800 78.8% 12.0% 9.3% April 2016 800 72.0% 16.3% 11.8% Republican 286 69.6% 18.5% 11.9% Democrat 338 73.7% 16.0% 10.4% Unaffiliated 165 71.5% 13.9% 14.5% Liberal 166 77.1% 13.3% 9.6% Moderate 242 71.9% 15.7% 12.4% Conservative 351 70.7% 18.2% 11.1% Urban 163 76.1% 12.3% 11.7% Suburban 329 69.9% 18.8% 11.2% Rural 289 71.6% 16.3% 12.1% Always "D" Voter 144 63.2% 25.7% 11.1% Always "R" Voter 118 66.1% 23.7% 10.2% Splits-Ticket 153 74.5% 13.1% 12.4% Entire Life 383 64.5% 22.5% 13.1% 20+years 212 73.6% 14.6% 11.8% 11-20 - years 111 82.9% 8.1% 9.0% 6-10 years 55 81.8% 7.3% 10.9% Male 376 75.0% 11.4% 13.6% Female 424 69.3% 20.5% 10.1%

Support for third-party sales remains above 70% in North Carolina. It has almost equal support from core-based voters in both major Parties. Strength of support is driven in part by voters who have moved to North Carolina.

Third Party Sales

Would you be more inclined to support or oppose a legislator who supported third-party energy sales?

23

72.6% 13.1% 14.3% 69.0% 16.8% 14.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Support Oppose DK/ Refused

N=800

February 2015 April 2016

N =

Support Oppose DK/ Refused

February 2015 800 72.6% 13.1% 14.3% April 2016 800 69.0% 16.8% 14.3% Republican 286 65.0% 19.6% 15.4% Democrat 338 70.7% 18.0% 11.2% Unaffiliated 165 72.1% 10.3% 17.6% Liberal 166 74.7% 15.1% 10.2% Moderate 242 71.9% 14.0% 14.0% Conservative 351 65.8% 19.4% 14.8% Urban 163 75.5% 11.0% 13.5% Suburban 329 68.1% 19.1% 12.8% Rural 289 67.1% 18.0% 14.9% Always "D" Voter 144 58.3% 29.9% 11.8% Always "R" Voter 118 61.0% 23.7% 15.3% Splits-Ticket 153 71.2% 11.1% 17.6% Entire Life 383 62.7% 23.8% 13.6% 20+years 212 68.4% 14.2% 17.5% 11-20 - years 111 82.0% 8.1% 9.9% 6-10 years 55 78.2% 7.3% 14.5% Male 376 71.3% 14.6% 4.1% Female 424 67.0% 18.6% 14.4%

Voters are inclined to support a legislator who supports third-party sales. The issue remains very strong with Unaffiliated voters and core-based Republican voters are slightly stronger than core-based Democratic voters.

Renewable Energy Tax Credit

Just last year, the North Carolina state legislature allowed the tax incentives to homeowners and businesses who utilize renewable energy options such as solar, wind and other renewable sources to expire. Do you support or oppose the State Legislature re-establishing the renewable energy tax credit?

24

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Support Oppose DK/ Refused

N=800

N = Support Oppose DK/ Refused April 2016 800

72.1% 20.1% 7.8%

Republican 286 64.3% 27.6% 8.0% Democrat 338 80.5% 13.0% 6.5% Unaffiliated 165 69.7% 21.2% 9.1% Liberal 166 90.4% 5.4% 4.2% Moderate 242 76.9% 15.7% 7.2% Conservative 351 61.5% 29.3% 9.1% Urban 163 81.0% 14.1% 4.9% Suburban 329 73.6% 21.0% 5.5% Rural 289 67.5% 22.5% 10.0% Always "D" Voter 144 75.7% 16.7% 7.6% Always "R" Voter 118 55.9% 32.2% 11.9% Splits-Ticket 153 73.2% 17.6% 9.2% McCrory Voter 349

62.8% 30.7% 6.6%

Cooper Voter 325

86.8% 8.3% 4.9% Undecided Governor

102

57.8% 21.6% 20.6%

Entire Life 383 70.5% 21.1% 8.4% 20+years 212 73.6% 19.3% 7.1% 11-20 -years 111 75.7% 21.6% 2.7% 6-10 years 55 70.9% 14.5% 14.5% Male 376 71.8% 20.7% 7.4% Female 424 72.4% 19.6% 8.0%

Support is strongest with Democratic and Unaffiliated voters as well as those voters who describe themselves as ticket- splitters.

Candidate Message Test

Candidate A supports encouraging the development of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar through economic incentives such as tax credits. This candidate believes that by solely relying upon traditional energy sources such as oil, coal and natural gas, we are putting our economy and nation at risk from global forces beyond our control. Candidate B says that we have enough energy sources already and that clean energy policies are just another way for liberals like President Obama and Hillary Clinton (added in 2016) to create more government programs at taxpayers’ expense in order to save the the environment.

25

N =

Candidate A Candidate B DK/ Refused

February 2015 800

66.0% 25.9% 8.1%

April 2016 800

62.9% 24.3% 12.9%

Republican 286 53.8% 33.6% 12.6%

Republican -2015 278

46.8% 44.2% 9.0%

Democrat 338 73.7% 16.3% 10.1%

Democrat - 2015 353

81.6% 12.5% 5.9%

Unaffiliated 165 57.0% 24.2% 18.8%

Unaffiliated -2015 148

66.9% 25.0% 8.1%

Urban 163 67.5% 17.2% 15.3% Suburban 329 66.0% 21.9% 12.2% Rural 289 58.1% 31.5% 10.4% Always "D" Voter 144 64.6% 23.6% 11.8% Always "R" Voter 118 53.4% 32.2% 14.4% Splits-Ticket 153 66.0% 20.3% 13.7% McCrory Voter 349

53.0% 34.7% 12.3%

Cooper Voter 325

77.8% 13.5% 8.6%

Undecided Governor 102

52.0% 18.6% 29.4%

Entire Life 383 61.1% 27.9% 11.0% 20+years 212 65.6% 22.2% 12.3% 11-20 -years 111 61.3% 24.3% 14.4% 6-10 years 55 67.3% 12.7% 20.0% Male 376 61.7% 24.7% 13.6% Female 424 63.9% 23.8% 12.3%

We added Hillary Clinton to the candidate message test to try and move Republicans away from Candidate A, however support for Candidate A increased with Republicans and dropped with Democrats when compared to 2015

• data. Unaffiliated voters moved to

”Don’t Know”. However, even with Obama and Clinton in the candidate message test, North Carolina voters still showed strong support for renewable energy sources.

Ballot Test - Governor

If the election for Governor were held today and the two candidates were Roy Cooper the Democrat and Pat McCrory the Republican and Lon Cecil the Libertarian, for whom would you vote?

26

40.6% 43.6% 3.0% 12.9% 42.1% 43.8% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% Cooper McCrory Cecil Undecided

N=800

April 2016 February 2015

N =

Cooper McCrory Cecil Undecided

February 2015 800 42.1% 43.8% 0.0% 14.1% April 2016 800 40.6% 43.6% 3.0% 12.9% Republican 286 7.3% 81.1% 2.1% 9.4% Democrat 338 71.6% 15.4% 2.1% 10.9% Unaffiliated 165 37.0% 38.8% 5.5% 18.8% Liberal 166 75.9% 9.0% 3.6% 11.4% Moderate 242 52.1% 28.9% 2.1% 16.9% Conservative 351 15.1% 72.1% 3.7% 9.1% Urban 163 53.4% 32.5% 2.5% 11.7% Suburban 329 41.6% 45.9% 1.8% 10.6% Rural 289 34.6% 48.4% 4.8% 12.1% Splits-Ticket 153 35.9% 34.6% 7.8% 21.6% Entire Life 383 35.5% 47.8% 2.6% 14.1% 20+years 212 47.6% 40.6% 2.8% 9.0% 11-20 - years 111 44.1% 43.2% 4.5% 8.1% 6-10 years 55 41.8% 34.5% 3.6% 20.0% Male 376 36.7% 44.9% 3.2% 15.2% Female 424 44.1% 42.5% 2.8% 10.6%

The race is going to go down to the wire. Both candidates have solidified their base and split the middle. Movement in the Urban/Suburban/Rural clusters runs in

• pposite direction for Cooper & McCrory.

The National Make-up on NC Voters

When asked, how long have you lived in North Carolina? 47.9% said their entire

• life. As a follow up, we asked those who had not: What was the last state you

lived in, if it was another country, then just say so.

13.9% 9.4% 6.7% 6.5% ç4.2% 6.2% 47.9% 3.8% 4.1% ë2.4% 3.1%

3.1% 2.9%

4.1% said another country and 1.7% said Washington, DC.

2.6%

2.2%

27

Demographic Overview

• 20.4% - Urban Based Voters
• 41.1% - Suburban Based Voters
• 36.1% - Rural Based Voters
• 47.9% - Lived in NC entire Life
• 26.5% - > 20years
• 13.9% - 11-20 years
• 11.2% - < 10 years
• 52.6% - Are College Graduates
• 23.8% - Received some College
• 16.5% - High School Degree
• 4.4% - Some High School or Less
• 53.0% Female
• 47.0% Male
• 35.8% Registered Republican
• 42.3% Registered Democrat
• 20.6% Registered Unaffiliated
• 18.0% - Greensboro
• 26.8% - Charlotte
• 10.6% - Greenville/New Bern
• 8.3% Asheville
• 5.0% Wilmington
• 31.4% - Raleigh/Durham
• 31.1% ----65 or older
• 28.8% ---55-64 years old
• 18.8.% ---41-54 years old
• 16.6% ---26-40 years old
• 2.6% ---18-25 years old
• 71.9% White
• 23.9% non-White
• 21.1% Black
• 85.5% Cell & landline
• 9.5% Landline Only
• 3.6% Cell only

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