Monitoring Mountain Pine Beetle Life Cycle Timing at Multiple - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Aug 10, 2023 359 likes •571 views

Monitoring Mountain Pine Beetle Life Cycle Timing at Multiple Elevations and Latitudes in California Barbara J. Bentz Dendroctonus ponderosae Rocky Mountain Research Station Jim Vandygriff USDA Forest Service, Logan UT www.usu.edu/beetle

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Barbara J. Bentz

Rocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service, Logan UT www.usu.edu/beetle

Monitoring Mountain Pine Beetle Life Cycle Timing at Multiple Elevations and Latitudes in California

Jim Vandygriff

Rocky Mountain Research Station Logan, UT

Dendroctonus ponderosae

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Cooperators

Sheri Smith, Forest Health Protection, Susanville, CA Patricia Maloney, UC Davis, Davis, CA Camille Jensen, UC Davis, Davis, CA Tom Coleman, Forest Health Protection, Riverside, CA Amanda Garcia, Forest Health Protection, Flagstaff, AZ

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Dendroctonus ponderosae Mountain pine beetle (MPB)

Pinus contorta

  • P. monticola
  • P. ponderosa
  • P. lambertiana
  • P. monophylla
  • P. albicaulis
  • P. flexilis
  • P. balfouriana
  • P. aristata
  • P. longaeva
  • P. strobiformis
  • P. banksiana

Current MPB host tree associations:

Matt Ayres photo

Mountain pine beetle (MPB) distribution is limited by climate not host trees. MPB distribution is expanding. ~41m acres affected in western US (1999 – 2011)

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Temperature can directly influence MPB success Seasonality – Appropriately timed phenology that is synchronized among individuals to facilitate a mass attack on host trees.

Beetle wins Beetle loses

June 29 July 19 Aug 8 Aug 28

Proportion of Total Emergence

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 2001 2002 2003

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Egg Instar 1 Instar 2 Instar 3 Instar 4 Pupae Teneral Adult Oviposition

From Bentz et al. 1991, Powell and Bentz 2009, Regniere, Powell, Bentz and Nealis 2012

MPB Phenology

‘Effective’ beetles

Instar-specific development rates and thresholds influence population synchrony and success.

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Temperature can directly influence MPB success Seasonality – Appropriately timed phenology that is synchronized among individuals to facilitate a mass attack on host trees.

DEATH DEATH

Mortality due to cold temperatures

Bentz and Mullins 1999, Regniere and Bentz 2007

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ID CA1 SD CA2 CA3 OR UT

Days from Infestation

25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250

Cumulative Emergence

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ID OR CA3 UT CA CA1 AZ

22 C

AZ

22˚C

Days from Infestation

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220

Cumulative Emergence

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

ID CA1 CA2 SD

22˚C

Bracewell et al. 2010; Bentz et al. 2001, 2011

Common Garden Rearing Experiments

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  • Based on AFLP data, gene flow
  • ccurs in a horseshoe-shaped

distribution around the Great Basin and Mojave deserts.

  • CA and AZ populations are the

most divergent.

  • Mating studies show a reproductive

incompatibility between populations

  • n the eastern and western sides of

the Great Basin.

Phylogeography of mountain pine beetle

From Mock et al. 2007; Bentz et al. 2011; Bracewell et al. 2010

ID AZ F1 F1 CA1

No offspring due to sterile males !!

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Objectives

  • Develop baseline information on mountain pine

beetle lifecycle timing across multiple latitudes and elevations in California.

  • Evaluate the potential for bivoltine (2 generations

per year) populations in California.

  • Evaluate how well our mountain pine beetle

phenology model predicts developmental timing in California.

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Phloem temperatures

Mountain pine beetle lifecycle monitoring in California, 2009 - 2012

1393m 1756m 2576m 2907m 2079m 2865m

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Lassen Prosser Incline Relay Peak Inyo Date in 2009 - 2010 July 19 Oct 28 Feb 4 June 15 Aug 23 San Bernardino Tree 2 San Bernardino Tree 5 2009 Attacks 2010 Emergence Incline Prosser Lassen Relay Peak Inyo Date in 2010 - 2011 July 19 Oct 28 Feb 4 June 15 Aug 23 San Bernardino Tree 7 2010 Attacks 2011 Emergence

Number MPB

Date in 2009-2010

July 19 Oct 28 Feb 4 June 15 Aug 23 Temperature > 12 C

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Lassen Incline Relay Peak San Bernardino Date in 2010-2011

July 19 Oct 28 Feb 4 June 15 Aug 23 Temperature > 12 C

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Lassen Prosser Incline Relay Peak Inyo San Bernardino

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July 19 Feb 4 Aug 23 March 11 Sept 27 Number MPB

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

2009 Attacks 2010 Emergence 2011 Emergence July 19 Feb 4 Aug 23 March 11 Sept 27 Number MPB

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

2010 Attacks 2011 Emergence 2012 Emergence?

Relay Peak, Tahoe Basin MU Pinus albicaulis 2907 m Univoltine – Semivoltine Mix

Date

July 19 Oct 28 Feb 4 June 15 Aug 23

Temperature > 12 C

500 1000 1500 2000

Relay Peak 2009 attacks Relay Peak 2010 attacks

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San Bernardino NF, CA Pinus monophylla, 2079 m

July 19 Oct 27 Feb 4 May 15 Aug 22 Dec 1

Proportion MPB

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30

Attacks Emergence holes Emergence cage

June 28 baited

Tree 2

  • Oct. 20

Cages installed Samples: teneral adults most brood gone

Date

July 19 Oct 27 Feb 4 May 15 Aug 22 Dec 1

Proportion MPB

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 June 28

Tree 5

Date July 19 Oct 27 Feb 4 May 15 Aug 23 Dec 1

Proportion MPB

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

Tree 7

3 generations in ~2½ years. NOT Bivoltine

2009 2010 2011

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Predicted MPB Lifestages

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Oviposition Egg Instar 1 Instar 2 Instar 3 Instar 4 Pupae Adult emergence June 21 Sept 29 Jan 7 April 17 July 26 Nov 3

Observed MPB

10 20 30 40 50 60

San Bernardino NF - pinyon pine 2079 m T2 North phloem Observed Emergence Observed Attacks 2009 2010 Predicted MPB

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Predicted Oviposition Predicted Teneral Adults July 28 Nov 5 Feb 13 May 24 Sept 1 Dec 10 March 20 June 28 Sept 27

Observed MPB

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Observed attacks Observed emergence 2009 2010 2011

Lake Tahoe Basin MU Whitebark pine 2932 m T1S

Univoltine –Semivoltine Mix < Univoltine Mix MPB Phenology Model Validation

Date

July 19 Oct 27 Feb 4 May 15 Aug 23 Dec 1

Observed Attack and Emergence

50 100 150 200 250

Predicted Adults

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Observed attacks Observed emergence Predicted emergence

2010 2011

Univoltine

Prosser Creek Lodgepole pine 1757m

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Temperature increase up to 4.0°C results in NO BIVOLTINISM

Date April 10 July 19 Oct 27 Feb 4 May 15 MPB observed

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

MPB predicted

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

2010 Temperatures Plus 2.5 C Plud 4.0 C

Instar 4 Pupae

Development Rate Temperature

WHY? 15 – 17°C threshold for development to pupal lifestage Can climate change and increasing temperature result in a bivoltine lifecycle at Prosser Creek?

Attacks

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San Bernardino, CA – Mixed Univoltine

July 19 Oct 27 Feb 4 May 15 Aug 22 Dec 1

Proportion MPB

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30

Attacks Emergence holes Emergence cage

June 28 baited

Tree 2

  • Oct. 20

Cages installed Samples: teneral adults most brood gone

Date in 2009 June 21 Sept 29 Jan 7 April 17

Predicted MPB

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

2009 temperature Plus 2.5 degrees Plus 4.0 degrees Attacks Adult emergence timing is later with increasing temperature

When temperatures at a site are at optimal or above for development (~25°C) then - Development rate will decrease with increasing temperature causing later emergence timing.

Instar 4/pre-pupae Pupae Development Rate Temperature

25°C is optimal development rate

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Predicted Number Days

30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Year

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Probability of Survival

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Predicted number of days for 30 to 90% emergence

MPB Population Success

High High Low Low

Cold temperature survival Development and emergence timing

Lake Tahoe NF , CA Prosser creek Lodgepole pine, 1757 m

Predicted number of days for 30 to 90% emergence

We can use these data and models to analyze trends in MPB population success

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Proportion Univoltine 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Year

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Probability of Survival

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Predicted Univoltinism

Shoshone NF, WY Togwotee Pass Whitebark pine, ~2900 m

MPB Population Success

High High Low Low

Cold temperature survival Development and emergence timing

Year

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

No Whitebark pine recording death date

5 10 15 20

Whitebark pine Acres Affected

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 Kipfmueller & Swetnam - MT Perkins & Swetnam - ID

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Conclusions

  • Field-observed mountain pine beetle lifecycle timing confirm

the role of temperature and phenotypic plasticity in population success at multiple sites across CA.

  • We did not observe bivoltine lifecycle timing at any site,

despite warm temperatures.

  • Based on our knowledge of mountain pine beetle physiology,

bivoltinism is not possible without adaptation that would result in new developmental thresholds.

  • Projections with our temperature-driven mechanistic models

can provide important information on population success in a changing climate.

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SLIDE 20

Jacques Régnière Jim Powell

Matt Hansen

Collaborators and Funding Acknowledgements

  • USDA FS, Forest

Health Protection Region 5

  • USDA FS, Forest

Health Monitoring, WC-EM-09-02 Stacy Hishinuma Andreana Cipollone Brian Knox Tom Coleman’s SOCAL crew