Learnings from MoCho-TIMES - Modal choice within bottom-up - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Learnings from MoCho-TIMES - Modal choice within bottom-up - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 06, 2023 219 likes •421 views

Learnings from MoCho-TIMES - Modal choice within bottom-up optimization energy system models ETSAP Meeting College Park, 10 th -11 th July 2017 Jacopo Tattini PhD Student Energy System Analysis group Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

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Learnings from MoCho-TIMES -

Modal choice within bottom-up optimization energy system models

ETSAP Meeting College Park, 10th -11th July 2017 Jacopo Tattini PhD Student Energy System Analysis group

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Motivation

  • Bottom-up (BU) energy system models describe in detail the technical,

economic and environmental dimensions of an energy system

  • They are weak in representing consumer behaviour: only one central-

decision maker is considered

  • The behavioural dimension is fundamental in decision making in the

transportation sector  It shall not be neglected

  • Essential to represent real households’ preferences

2 19 July 2017

Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

For more info: Venturini et al., Improvements in the representation of behaviour in integrated energy and transport models, 2017 (Under revision)

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MoCho-TIMES model

  • MoCho-TIMES (Modal Choice in TIMES) is an approach to

incorporate modal choice directly in BU optimization energy system models

  • The methodology consists in two main steps:
  • 1. Divide transport users into heterogeneous consumer groups
  • 2. Incorporate intangible costs
  • Other constraints:
  • Monetary budget
  • Availability of transport infrastructures
  • Travel Time Budget (TTB)
  • Travel patterns
  • Maximum shift potential
  • Maximum rate of shift

3 19 July 2017

For more info refer to working paper: Tattini et al., Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model, 2017

Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

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Demand side heterogeneity

4 19 July 2017 DENMARK DENMARK EAST DENMARK WEST URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL VERY LOW INCOME MEDIUM INCOME HIGH INCOME LOW INCOME VERY LOW INCOME MEDIUM INCOME HIGH INCOME LOW INCOME VERY LOW INCOME MEDIUM INCOME HIGH INCOME LOW INCOME VERY LOW INCOME MEDIUM INCOME HIGH INCOME LOW INCOME VERY LOW INCOME MEDIUM INCOME HIGH INCOME LOW INCOME VERY LOW INCOME MEDIUM INCOME HIGH INCOME LOW INCOME

Modes have different levels of service Different perceptions of levels of service

  • Heterogeneity differentiates modal perception among subgroups of transport

users

Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

Region Urbanization area Income level

Region 1 Region 2

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Intangible costs

5 19 July 2017

Intangible costs are introduced for two reasons:

  • 1. To capture other non-economic factors into the expression of the

generalized cost, accounting modal perception

  • 2. To differentiate modal perceptions across consumer groups through

monetization.

Varies across income classes Varies across types

  • f urbanisation

Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

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SLIDE 6

Overall structure of MoCho-TIMES

6 19 July 2017 NON MOTORIZED

Fuel

Consumer Group 2

Demands

Consumer Group 1 Consumer Group 24 Consumer Group 3

Travel time Infrastructure

EXISTING INFRA- STRUCTURE TRAVEL TIME BUDGET

Perceived cost

MONETARY BUDGET

...

Intangible cost CG1 Intangible cost CG24

…

Intangible cost CG2

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

Intangible cost CG1 Intangible cost CG24

…

Intangible cost CG2

PRIVATE CAR

Intangible cost CG1 Intangible cost CG24

…

Intangible cost CG2

NEW INFRA- STRUCTURE

Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

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Data requirement

7 19 July 2017

Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

  • Many new data are required:

– Spatial distribution of the population (region, type of urbanization) – Income distribution across the population – Mileage distribution across the population – LoS attributes: free travel time, congestion travel time, waiting time, walking time, access/egress time, etc – Value of time (VoT) – Infrastructure data: investment and O&M costs, capacity utilization level – Travel pattern: share of km in the urban/suburban/rural areas – Public transport fares – Car parking cost – …..

  • Need a rich and reliable data-source, consistent with the energy system

model that will incorporate modal choice

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Support model

  • The development of MoCho-TIMES requires a support model:
  • Transport model able to simulate modal choice
  • Consistent with the geographical scope of the energy system model
  • The support model is used to draw data and parameters for MoCho-TIMES
  • The transport model might have a different time horizon than the energy

system model  Assumptions required

  • In case support model is not available, a travel survey (travel diary) could be

used

8 19 July 2017

Transport Model

Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

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SLIDE 9

Reflections

  • Modal choice is determined at aggregated level, for macro clusters of

consumers, but is able to capture variability acorss population

  • Dimensions for heterogeneity is crucial
  • Finer resolution is achievable, but trade-off trade-off between model size and

representation of the population shall be pursued

  • Additional variability to modal perception achieved through the ”clones”
  • Vague spatial resolution  Focus is not trip, but entire energy system
  • Heterogeneity overcomes the “mean-decision maker” perspective
  • Perfect-information, perfect-foresight and perfect-rationality

9 19 July 2017

Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

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SLIDE 10

Shall MoCho-TIMES be incorporated into an integrated energy system model?

  • Modal shift as an option to decarbonize energy system,within a unique

model framework.

  • Effect of energy system dynamics on modal shares and vice versa
  • Transport sector is expected to become increasingly integrated into

the energy system

  • New policy and scenario analyses: effect of variations of LoS and

consumers’ perception of modes on rest of energy system and viceversa

  • Intangible costs act as a barrier to decarbonisation of the transport

sector  Required consistency across sectors Compare MoCho-TIMES and soft-linking

  • f

TIMES with external transport model (ABM+system dynamic model)

10 19 July 2017

Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 11

Jacopo Tattini jactat@dtu.dk

…questions, suggestions?!?!

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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Soft link of TIMES-DK and LTM

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ABM+System Dynamic

Inputs to ABM+SD model:

  • Socioeconomic description:

gender, income class, car

  • wnership, age, nr. of

children, marital status, GDP , employment

  • Infrastructure: existing and

planned

  • Average mode travel cost
  • …

Outputs from LTM (2010-2030):

  • Passenger travel demand per mode,

location, purpose (pkm)

  • Freight travel demand per mode, location,

purpose (tkm)

  • ……..

TIMES-DK Interface

Outputs from TIMES-DK:

  • Fuels prices

Iterations Modal choice in LTM and technology choice in TIMES-DK

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MoCho-TIMES vs Soft-link with external model

Soft link with transport model Advantages:

  • Transport

models have suitable structure and mathematical expression (MNL) for computing modal shares

  • Spatial disaggregated
  • Household/Individual resolution

Disadvantages:

  • Long computational time of transport

model

  • Low sensitivity to price changes
  • Iterations required?

14 19 July 2017

Motivation MoCho-TIMES model Discussion

MoCho-TIMES Advantages:

  • Wider scope of analysis, including

the energy system

  • Enables

assessing cross-sectoral influences

  • Flexible for scenario analysis
  • Catch some variability of preferences

Disadvantages:

  • Macro-clusters of consumers
  • Aggregated spatial resolution
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Disaggregated modal shares

15 19 July 2017

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Disaggregated modal shares

16 19 July 2017

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Disaggregated modal shares

17 19 July 2017

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Disaggregated modal shares

18 19 July 2017

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SLIDE 19

DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 19 19 July 2017

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