The European Com m issions science and know ledge service Joint - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The European Com m ission’s science and know ledge service

Joint Research Centre

JRC w ork on resilience

• F. Campolongo

Directorate Grow th & I nnovation OECD-NAEC sem inar Paris, 2 3 October 2 0 1 7

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in consultation w ith European Com m ission services JRC developed a conceptual fram ew ork for resilience

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Resilience is the ability of a system/ society to sustain its level of societal w ellbeing, without compromising that of future generations, by reacting to shocks and persistent structural changes

W hat is resilience?

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Low : small disturbance Medium : greater disturbance High: unbearable disturbance

Stability: Absorptive capacity Flexibility: Adaptive capacity Change: Transform ative capacity DISTURBANCE INTENSITY TIME OF EXPOSURE

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The system view

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A test case on the 2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 2 financial and econom ic crisis

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Measurem ent strategy

System variables I ndicators of resilience Resilience drivers

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Natural capital Human capital Social capital Built capital

INSTITUTIONS

• Markets
• Business and R&D
• Infrastructures
• Policies
• Communities

2008-2012 crisis

Consumption Investment Wellbeing Production process Negative

• utcomes

Eco-system services Socio-system services Resilience of assets Resilience of the engine Resilience of

• utcomes

Human capital Built capital Social capital Socio system service Market Communities Consumption Investment Wellbeing Negative

• utcomes

Pilot on the financial and econom ic crisis

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I ndicators of resilience - exam ples

I m pact Absorptive capacity Recovery Adaptation capacity

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Result 1 : Good absorption does not im ply good adaptation, and vice-versa

I m pact: Low  High Recovery: Low  High

Econom ic and financial resilience

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Result 2 : Shock absorption : the role of tax & social benefits as "autom atic stabilisers"

Negative shocks on household income are absorbed by between 20% and 45% on average in the EU (lhs). Social benefits are particularly important for the poorest households (rhs). Level of autom atic incom e stabilisation for households in EU countries ( 2 0 1 4 )

Regional Resilience indicator Resilience indicator

not resilient resilient

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Key variables :

• GDP per capita: key

variable for measuring economic performances

• Productivity

(GDP/ employment): required for a lasting growth

• Employment rate

(employment/ population): key for generating GDP

Note: GDP/ pop. = GDP/ employment × employment/ pop

Source: JRC.B.3 LUI SA

Result 3 : W e need to go dow n to regions

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Routine w orkers are the least resilient group

Change of em ploym ent, by type of occupation and country - 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 6

Result 4 : W e need to go dow n to different groups/ com m unities

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Result 5 : A system view is w hat w e need

I m pact: Low  High Recovery: Low  High

System view : including social resilience

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Preliminary findings of a JRC study indicate that:

• Generalized trust is positively associated to education
• This association is stronger in countries with greater

birthplace diversity and w eaker in countries with greater incom e inequality

Result 6 : TRUST helps increasing resilience

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• Further develop our case studies

(e.g. dig into resilience characteristics/ drivers to produce a dashboard for monitoring purposes)

• Enlarge the dataset with region-

and city-level data

• Extend the work to urgent

challenges such as m igration and digital transform ation

W ay forw ard

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Potential collaboration w ith the OECD

• Data exchange
• Use JRC resilience framework as intergovernmental

standard in the context of the project being discussed between NIST, NAEC, JRC (meeting 13 October)

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