Future Submarine Through-life Support Cost Modelling in the Concept - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Future Submarine Through-life Support Cost Modelling in the Concept Phase

Nira Chamberlain CMath FIMA CSci Modelling and Simulation Capability Lead.

LSC is a Consultancy and Systems Integration services company LSC is a Consultancy and Systems Integration services company

LSC Group

We work closely with clients to enhance their decision- making capabilities We work closely with clients to enhance their decision- making capabilities 200 people across 4 key locations and numerous customer sites 200 people across 4 key locations and numerous customer sites Defence market focus across Maritime, Air, Land & MoD centre Defence market focus across Maritime, Air, Land & MoD centre Our mission is to make complex decision-making informed, precise and collaborative ….. Our mission is to make complex decision-making informed, precise and collaborative ….. …enabling better decisions throughout the asset life cycle …enabling better decisions throughout the asset life cycle

Modelling and Simulation roles

• LSC Groups Modelling and Simulation

Lead

• Future Submarine Design for

Minimum Cost Manager

• Concept phase investment appraisal

through life cost studies for systems selection.

The Problem

• Most of the problems within the

concept phase of a project are messy and complex, often entailing considerable uncertainty

The Challenge

• Because of the nature of the project

the cost team were being asked Demonstration Phase style questions within the concept phase.

• It was widely believed that there is a

relatively small window in which significant whole life cost savings can be engineered into the boat.

Window of Opportunity

• This is due to the well known fact that

75-80% of the cost of a product is determined during the design phase.

Concept Assessment Demonstration Manufacture In Service

Cumulative Life Cycle Cost

Committed Costs

Incurred Costs

Traditional Approach

• “Wet finger in the air”
• Cost estimates based on physical

characteristics.

Issues with traditional approach

• In terms of “Wet finger in the air”
• The assumptions become the

solution.

• A guess will always be replaced with

a guess.

Issues with traditional approach

• In terms of cost estimating based on

physical characteristics; finding significant cost deltas between the

• ptions proved to be problematic.

The Approach

• Recognise that we are being asked

different questions

• Instead of bending the client to fit the

model, we have to develop the model(s) to fit the client.

Modelling Philosophy

• A “guess will always be replaced by a

guess but a logical argument evolves”

Guess Guess Guess Guess Concept Design Concept Concept Design Logical Argument Logical Argument Logical Argument Logical Argument

Addressing the Challenge:

Addressing the Challenge:

What are the cost consequences of the design characteristics?

Logical Argument Based Model

• LABM uses advanced quantitative

methods, modelling, problem structuring, analytical techniques to examine assumptions, facilitate an in - depth understanding and from this develop a practical solution which is transparent and challengeable.

Addressing the Challenge:

Another challenge

• What happens when the client ask

about maintenance cost of a system that never existed on the previous platform?

Modelling Philosophy

• A “guess will always be replaced by a

guess but a logical argument evolves”

Addressing the Challenge:

Addressing the Challenge:

Addressing the Challenge:

The challenge

• How can we relate cost to

performance and requirement?

Case Study Demonstration:

Other Bespoken Cost Models

• 1. The Dynamical Probability Analysis Tool.

– Rapid fire but robust Monte-Carlo Simulation Tool.

• 2. The Spend to Save Model

– Measure the effectiveness of cost reduction strategies.

• 3. Heuristic Engineering Analysis Tool

– Captures the Engineering Impact of costed solutions

.

Integrating models into a suite of tools

LABM DPAT CPTO MM Simulation HEAT

Conclusion

• In the concept phase if the client ask

you Through Life demonstration phase style of questions; it is better to adapt your model(s) to the client than trying to adapt the client to the models.

• A guess will always be replaced by a

guess but a logical argument will always evolve.

References

Planning Implementation Management Requirements

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