Submarine Networks: Whats Cooking? Whats Cooking? Laurie Doyle - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Submarine Networks: Whats Cooking? Whats Cooking? Laurie Doyle - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Submarine Networks: Whats Cooking? Whats Cooking? Laurie Doyle Alcatel-Lucent Submarine Networks conference & convention enabling the next

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Submarine Networks: What’s Cooking? What’s Cooking?

Laurie Doyle

Alcatel-Lucent Submarine Networks

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Presenter Profile

Over 20 years in both terrestrial and submarine transmission systems – various roles including project management, product management, product & network strategy, bids & product & network strategy, bids &

  • proposals. Currently leading a technical

marketing project in the Sales & Marketing Department of ASN. Laurie Doyle laurie.doyle@alcatel-lucent.com Tel: (+33) 1 3077 7761 Mobile Tel: +33 6 8668 6724

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International Traffic

  • ~ 80% of international traffic
  • ~20% international traffic

Internet Backbones Private Networks

  • ~ 80% of international traffic

– Web applications for business and private use – OTT content, mainly video

  • “Experience now” rather than

download for later consumption

– P2P file transfers

  • Estimated growth >60% pa*
  • ~20% international traffic

– Enterprise communications and IT needs – Peering, dedicated CDNs etc.

  • Estimated growth ~45%pa*
  • ~1% international traffic

Voice Networks

*Source TeleGeography 2009

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Internet Observations

Shift in usage towards:

– OTT video content – Increasingly on-demand applications

  • Content consumption enabled by:

– more powerful, cheaper consumer devices – broadband penetration, wireless

  • networking

– internet innovations

  • Social networking and UGC sites

– becoming platforms for communications services and delivery

  • f UGC and professionally produced

video or ads

  • File sharing still significant but

decreasing as % of total traffic

  • Web applications now essential for

businesses and people’s daily lives

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Internet

  • Dramatic shift to “experience now”
  • On-demand entertainment applications

embraced in more mature markets

  • Peer-to-peer:
  • Peer-to-peer:

– Primary source of content in developing countries – P2P decreased by 25% as a share of total traffic in 2009, but still represents about 20% of total internet traffic

  • Usage management, congestion management

are key objectives of network providers

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Internet

  • Miscellaneous trivia:

– YouTube alone accounts for ~5% internet traffic globally (Google ~6%) – More popular social networking sites ~1% each – Storage & backup services: becoming mainstream for – Storage & backup services: becoming mainstream for web users

  • e.g. MegaUpload, Rapidshare

– Broadband penetration/subscriber count losing relevance in mature markets

  • Connected devices becoming multi-functional
  • Penetration may rise to 300-400% ?
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Internet Evolution

Sprint, MCI, ATT, Uunet, etc. NAP NAP

National Backbone Operators

Global Transit/ National Backbones “Hyper Giants” Large Content, Consumer, Hosting CDN

Then Now

ISP 2 ISP 3

Regional Access Providers Customer IP Networks

Backbones CDN

IXP IXP IXP

ISP 2 ISP 1

Global Internet Core Regional/Tier 2 Providers Customer IP Networks Source: C. Labovitz et al, Atlas Internet Observatory 2009 Annual Report presented at NANOG47 Local Access Providers

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Rise of “Hyper Giants”

  • Consolidation of content
  • In 2007, thousands of ASNs contributed 50% of content
  • In 2009, 150 ASNs contribute 50% of all Internet traffic, 30 “hyper giants”

contribute 30%

Source: C. Labovitz et al, Atlas Internet Observatory 2009 Annual Report presented at NANOG47

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Over the Top

  • Rapid Growth

– Devices – Broadband penetration & Wireless networking – Internet innovations

  • But

– Traditional providers’ share of overall billable communications minutes in decline – Tensions between OTT providers and core/access network providers over investments require to support consumer appetite for content

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End customer

Telco Local and long distance voice services

Subscriptions Pay per use

New Business Models

Access Wireless and fixed internet access providers

Peering charges for access to content Typically no charge Peering/co-lo Subscriptions Pay per use End customer

International Carrier Global Networks transporting voice CDN Large network and cache of a variety of content Internet Core Global Networks transporting internet traffic OTT providers Content, media and applications

Peering/co-lo charges to shift content around CDN Charges for amount

  • f data cached

Possibly charges for bandwidth used End customer Advertisers Variety of transactions & models Per click or basic ad revenue

Source: IBM Global Business Services: “The Changing Face of Communications”, 2008

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IP Transit, Peering

Transit Provider A

ISP A

Transit Provider A

ISP A

Transit Provider B

ISP B

$ meter

Eyeball ISPs ISPs, Peering, IXPs,

Transit Provider B

ISP B

$ meter

Eyeball ISPs ISPs, Peering, IXPs,

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Content Delivery Networks

  • Set of interconnected caches replicating content and applications at

multiple locations

  • Improve QoE for Internet Users downloading web pages & content
  • Scaling to meeting new needs

– streaming, flash crowds, … – streaming, flash crowds, …

  • Provide services to support monetisation of content:

– DRM – Usage & billing – Analytics to support performance based advertising

  • Allow telecom operators and ISPs to distribute content closer to end

users

– Offloads traffic from backbone, reduces peak demands

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Peering/ Transit Peering/ Transit Peering/ Transit

The Akamai Way The Akamai Way

Edge Cache Edge Cache Edge Cache

Different Approaches to CDNs

End User Origin Storage Server

Peering/ Transit Peering/ Transit Peering/ Transit Transit Transit Transit

The Google Way The Google Way

Source: Telia Sonera White Paper, August 2008

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P2P Networks

Content Creator Local ISP Networks Core Networks Local ISP Networks Content Consumer

Data Centre CDNs

First Mile First Mile First Mile First Mile Last Mile Last Mile Last Mile Last Mile

Approaches to Content Delivery

More Centralised More Distributed Points of Interconnection between CDN and originating/terminating networks

Highly Distributed CDNs Hosting

Source: Light Reading Insider Vol. 9 No. 9 Sept 2009

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Peer to Peer Principle

End User Download

  • r

Streaming Server

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Cloud Computing

Widespred adoption

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

  • Trust & privacy
  • Standards
  • Response time & latency
  • Reliability/outages
  • Regulatory Issues

Microsoft Salesforce.com Verizon Reliance IBM Cisco

Hype

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

TM Forum to the rescue? Google HP Amazon Verizon ATT Orange BT DTAG KDDI NTT Tata Telstra TNZ Singtel China Telecom Cisco

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On-line Advertising

USA Market only Source: IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report – 2009 Full Year Results

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Who buys on-line advertising?

USA Market only

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Conclusions:

What might this mean for submarine networks?

  • Factors pushing traffic growth

– Large content providers pushing towards as large an audience as possible – Appetite for content

  • Factors mitigating traffic

growth

– CDNs reduce bandwidth required to address large numbers of users – Appetite for content everywhere, anywhere, on demand – HD/3D video – Internet innovations creating new communication platforms – Cloud computing – eventually – Increasingly sophisticated on- line advertising – Application of P2P techniques to improve efficiency of downloads – Major content providers upgrading peering arrangements deeper into the network Winner

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Increasing Traffic, so:

  • New Systems? Upgrades?

– Continuing upgrades on existing routes depend on the capability of terminal technology to continue to expand the limits of potential capacity on in-service cables in a cost effective way cables in a cost effective way

  • Service provider revenues?

– Traffic volumes increasingly disproportionate vs. revenues ⇒Continuing pressure on cost per transported bit

  • Drivers may have changed – but some basic

truths haven’t!

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2010

enabling the next generation of networks & services

conference & convention

Pacifico Convention Plaza Yokohama & InterContinental The Grand Yokohama 11 ~ 14 May 2010 www.suboptic.org The 7th International Conference & Convention

  • n Undersea Telecommunications