FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Risk Management - Canada Slobodan P. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Risk Management - Canada

Slobodan P. Simonovid Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering The University of Western Ontario London, Canada

FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Conclusions

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• Risk management as adaptation to

climate change

• Use of systems approach
• Flood risk management as a social

system

• Systems tools
• Probabilistic approach

(Monte Carlo simulation, Evolutionary

• ptimization, Probabilistic MO goal

programming)

• Fuzzy set approach

(Fuzzy rule-based simulation, Fuzzy linear programming, Fuzzy Compromise MO programming)

FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Outline

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• Introduction
• Floods in Canada
• Global change
• Climate change
• Floods in a changing climate
• Risk management as adaptation
• Systems approach
• Important messages
• Public safety
• ‘Believe’ in climate change
• General trends
• Urban flooding
• Flood insurance

INTRODUCTION

Floods in Canada 1900-2005

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Ontario Quebec British Columbia Alberta

INTRODUCTION

Floods in Canada 1900-2005

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CALGARY

June 2013

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• Bow River
• Peak flow 2,400 m3/sec
• 8 x the regular flow
• 3 x 2005 flood
• Elbow River
• Peak flow 1,240 m3/sec
• 12 x the regular flow
• 3 x 2005 flood
• Outflow below Glenmore dam
• 700 m3/sec
• 7 x the normal
• 2.5 x 2005 flood
• 26 communities evacuated
• 100,000 people affected
• 20 bridges closed
• 34,000 people without power

CALGARY

June 2013

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TORONTO

July 2013

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• Rain storm
• 126 mm in two hours (74.4 mm July average)
• At least 300,000 people affected
• 1,400 train passengers stranded for hours
• More than 300,000 people without power
• Major traffic arteries flooded
• Insured damage $850 M
• 2005 storm $671 M
• 2009 storm $228 M

TORONTO

July 2013

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INTRODUCTION

Global change

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• Global change (natural and human-induced)
• Alterations in climate
• Changes in land productivity
• Changes in oceans or other water resources
• Changes in atmospheric chemistry
• Changes in ecological systems
• Understanding and predicting the causes, and

impacts of, and potential responses to:

• Long term climate change and greenhouse

warming

• Changes in atmospheric radiation
• Natural climate fluctuations over seasonal and

inter-annual time periods

• They are all directly related to flooding

INTRODUCTION

Climate change

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• Climate change
• Changes in frequency and or intensity of extreme

weather and climate events

• Sea level rise
• IPCC – many changes in extremes had been
• bserved since 1970s as part of the warming of

climate system

• More frequent hot days, hot nights and heat waves
• More frequent heavy precipitation events
• More intense and longer droughts over wider areas
• Increase in intense tropical cyclones in the North

Atlantic

• Sea level rise
• Feedbacks

INTRODUCTION

Climate change

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• Intensification of the hydrologic cycle
• Further increases in precipitation extremes
• Increases in heavy precipitation in wet areas
• Increases in drought in dry areas
• No precise predictions
• Current studies suggest that heavy precipitation rates

may increase by 5 – 10% per oC of warming Toronto 2013 - $850 M Toronto 2005 - $671 M

FLOOD RISK

Management – Systems view

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• The system in focus is a social

system of:

• Individuals
• Organizations
• Societies and
• Environment.
• Flows connecting the

subsystems:

• Resource, and
• Information.
• Information is used to

determine resource use by subsystems.

• Values provide meaning to

information flows.

information resources

FLOOD RISK

Risk assessment and communication

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FLOOD RISK

Municipal Risk Assessment Tool - IBC

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FLOOD RISK

Risk management – systems approach

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• Systems tools
• Probabilistic approach

(Monte Carlo simulation, Evolutionary

• ptimization, Probabilistic MO goal

programming)

• Fuzzy set approach

(Fuzzy rule-based simulation, Fuzzy linear programming, Fuzzy Compromise MO programming)

FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Important messages

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• Public safety
• …”The rising cost of natural disasters and the financial

burden on Ottawa is the country’s biggest public safety risk”…

Public Safety Canada, 2013‐14, Report on Plans and Priorities

FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Important messages

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• ‘Believe’ in climate change
• …“It’s striking that anyone frames the question in terms of

‘belief,’ saying like, ‘I don’t believe in climate change.’ I don’t think this ought to be treated as a religious question. I think it’s better seen as a classic managerial question about decision-making under uncertainty”…

John D. Black Professor, Harvard Business School

FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Important messages

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• General trends
• More frequent and intense disasters

Upper Thames River basin

FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Important messages

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• Urban flooding
• An estimate $1.2 B annually

ICLR unpublished data

FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Important messages

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• Flood insurance
• …Flood insurance in Canada should cover all causes of flooding…
• …Flood insurance must not incentivize building in flood prone

areas and encourage risky behavior…

• … Flood insurance will require a partnership between the

insurance industry, governments and private homeowners...

Swiss RE and ICLR, 2010

RESOURCES

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www.slobodansimonovic.com

Research  Research projects FIDS  Research