Climate Services Climate Services Climate Services Climate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

JMA JMA/WMO Workshop on Quality Management in Surface, Climate and Upper ‐ air Observations in RA II (Asia) 27 ‐ 30 July 2010, Tokyo, Japan Climate Services Climate Services Climate Services Climate Services Perspective Perspective e spect e spect e e Takafumi Takafumi Umeda Umeda Climate Prediction Division Climate Prediction Division Climate Prediction Division Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency Japan Meteorological Agency t umeda@met.kishou.go.jp t umeda@met.kishou.go.jp _ _ @ @ g g jp jp 1

JMA Contents Contents 1 1. Outline of climate services provided by CPD/JMA Outline of climate services provided by CPD/JMA 2. Surface climate monitoring (1) Monitoring of extreme climate events (1) Monitoring of extreme climate events (2) Monitoring of global warming 3. Climate system monitoring 3 Climate system monitoring 4. Diagnostic information on the climate system as background to extreme climate events background to extreme climate events 5. Importance of in-situ observation from the viewpoint of Climate services viewpoint of Climate services 2

3 JMA * Climate Prediction Division/Japan Meteorological Agency 1. Outline of climate services provided by CPD/JMA* CPD/JMA

JMA JMA Organization JMA Organization Global Environment and Global Environment and Global Environment and Global Environment and Climate Prediction Division Climate Prediction Division Marine Department Marine Department 4

JMA Products of CPD/JMA Products of CPD/JMA CPD: Climate Prediction Division CPD: Climate Prediction Division Climate Information Climate Information C C ate ate o o at o at o Monitoring Prediction Prediction Surface Climate Re- Global Seasonal El Nino El Nino Climate Climate Warming Warming System S t A Analysis l i Forecast 5

JMA Tasks of TCC/JMA Monitoring of Monitoring of Extreme Events Monitoring of Monitoring of Climate Information / C f / Global Climate System Technical Transfer Global Numerical Global Numerical El Niñ El Niño Outlook O tl k Prediction NMHS NMHSs in the Preparation and Provision of Asia- Asia Basic Climate Information Pacific Capacity Building p y g Climate Data / Feedback

7 JMA 2 Surface climate monitoring 2.Surface climate monitoring (1) Monitoring of extreme climate events

JMA Aim of Global Surface Climate Monitoring Aim of Global Surface Climate Monitoring  Detection of climate variability and change  Detection of climate variability and change e.g., Global warming, extreme events, El nino influence influence,…  Information for international activities  Information for international activities e.g., trading, transportation, disaster relief,… 40% of food self-sufficiency •Australia droughts  Import of agricultural products in Japan •Warmer winter in U S  International oil price •Warmer winter in U.S.  International oil price 8

9 JMA

JMA Definition of “Extreme Climate” Definition of “Extreme Climate”  In general, “extreme climate (or event)” is recognized as - unusual severe or rare climate event - weather with disasters or socio-economic influence  It includes heavy rainfall in a few hours heat/cold wave in  It includes heavy rainfall in a few hours, heat/cold wave in several days, drought in several months…  In monitoring at JMA, extreme climate is defined as event with  In monitoring at JMA “extreme climate” is defined as event with frequency once in 30 years or longer. Temperature : Anomaly ≥ ± 1.83 σ σ = Standard deviation in 1971-2000 σ Standard deviation in 1971 2000 Precipitation : Extreme wet: >any values in 1971 - 2000 y Extreme dry: <any values in 1971 - 2000 10

JMA CLIMAT reports for temperature in May 2010 Sometimes no reports from some stations Sometimes no reports from some stations … · Some countries do not send reports sometimes. · Other reports are deleted on GTS for various reasons. ( “GTS problem”) All the CLIMAT reports are necessary for overall monitoring All the CLIMAT reports are necessary for overall monitoring of the world climate! 11

JMA RBCN RBCN and GSN and GSN  RBCN RBCN: Regional Basic Regional Basic Climatological Climatological Network Network is necessary to provide a good representation of climate on the regional scale, in addition to global scale (about 3,000 CLIMAT stations). l ( b t 3 000 CLIMAT t ti )  GSN GSN: GCOS Surface Network is minimum configuration for global climate monitoring (about 1 000 CLIMAT stations) monitoring (about 1,000 CLIMAT stations). Percentage of received GSN-CLIMAT reports RBCN (WMO) RBCN (WMO) RBCN (WMO) RBCN (WMO) ( ( ( ( ) ) ) ) GSN (GCOS) GSN (GCOS) Global abo t 80% Global: about 80% GSN is part of RBCN. It was gradually improved by It was gradually improved by efforts of GCOS community etc. Percentage of received RBCN-CLIMAT reports is still about 70%. 12

JMA JMA’s Climate Database “ClimatView ClimatView” ” JMA’s Climate Database TCC website TCC website - http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/climatview/ http://ds data jma go jp/gmd/tcc/climatview/  ClimatView is an interactive database launched by JMA on the TCC website in August 2007 by JMA on the TCC website in August 2007.  Monthly temperature and precipitation data  Monthly temperature and precipitation data from CLIMAT reports since 1982 are available.  NMHSs can monitor the availability of CLIMAT report over the GTS. It is expected it facilitates p p the exchange of climate data.

14 JMA 2 Surface climate monitoring 2.Surface climate monitoring (2) Monitoring of global warming

JMA Annual anomaly of surface temperature over the globe Annual anomaly of surface temperature over the globe (the combined temperature of near-surface air temperature over land, and sea surface temperature) Annual anomaly of surface temperature over the globe is monitored to get hold of climate change caused by global warming. get hold of climate change caused by global warming. Not only land surface temperature data (CLIMAT, GHCN- y p ( , The annual anomaly of the global average surface The annual anomaly of the global average surface Monthly) but also the result of sea surface temperature temperature in 2009 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.31 ° C analysis (COBE-SST) are used for the global analysis. above normal (based on 1971-2000 average), and was the 3rd highest since 1891. On a longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have been rising at a rate average surface temperatures have been rising at a rate of about 0.68 ° C per century. Accurate measurements and precise analysis The year-to-year variation is around 0.1 ° C. are necessary! 15

JMA Monitoring of surface temperature in Japan Monitoring of surface temperature in Japan Annual surface temperature anomalies in Japan Annual number of occurrences of extremely high/low monthly mean temperatures 4 n ences per station 3 umber of occurre 2 1 Annual nu 0.44 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Extremely high monthly temperature Extremely high monthly temperature Extremely low monthly temperature Extremely low monthly temperature The mean surface temperature in Japan for 2009 is 11-year running mean 11-year running mean estimated to have been 0.56 ° C above normal (i.e. the 1971 – 2000 average) and the seventh warmest on The occurrence of extremely high/low temperatures record since 1898. The temperature anomaly has increased/decreased significantly during the period 1901 – been rising at a rate of about 1.13 ° C per century 2009.The occurrence of extremely high temperatures since the instrumental temperature records began in increased remarkably from the 1980s onward. 1898. * The threshold of extremely high/low temperature is defined as * To calculate long-term temperature trends, JMA selected the fourth-highest/lowest value for the month over 109 years. 17 stations that are considered not to have been highly stat o s t at a e co s de ed ot to a e bee g y influenced by urbanization and have continuous records from 1898 onwards. 16

JMA Did the occurrence of extremely high/low temperatures y g p increase/decrease in each area over the world? Siberia Europe North America Eastern Asia India Southern South America Southern Africa Australia Unfortunately, in JMA’s database, long-term data are not available for every station over the world . 17

JMA Eastern Asia North America Sib Siberia i Southern South America The occurrence of extremely high/low temperatures Europe Australia increased/decreased significantly for g y each area except for Southern Africa. However, if you want to pinpoint Southern Africa India your country’s climate change, you should manage the long-term you should manage the long-term datasets of the stations in your country. Extremely high monthly temperature (11-year running mean) Extremely low monthly temperature (11-year running mean) 18

19 JMA 3. Climate system monitoring Climate system monitoring 3