Climate change experiments Climate change experiments with a Hi- - - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SLIDE 1

Climate change experiments Climate change experiments with a Hi with a Hi-

• res. climate model
• res. climate model

～ ～ current status and f uture plans current status and f uture plans ～ ～

The K The K-

• 1 Japan Project Team

1 Japan Project Team*

* *A. Sumi

• A. Sumi1

1, M. Kimoto

, M. Kimoto1

1, S. Emori

, S. Emori2

2, H. Hasumi

, H. Hasumi1

1,

, T. Nozawa

• T. Nozawa3

3,

,

• Ta. Suzuki
• Ta. Suzuki2

2, T. Nishimura

, T. Nishimura2

2, T. Inoue

, T. Inoue4

4, F. Saito

, F. Saito1

1,

,

• T. Ogura
• T. Ogura3

3, A. Abe

, A. Abe-

• Ouchi

Ouchi1

1, R. Ohgaito

, R. Ohgaito2

2, T. Segawa

, T. Segawa2

2,

,

• T. Sakamoto
• T. Sakamoto2

2, S. Hasegawa

, S. Hasegawa2

2, A. Oka

, A. Oka1

1, T. Nagashima

, T. Nagashima3

3,

,

• T. Yokohata
• T. Yokohata3

3, N. Okada

, N. Okada3

3, Ts. Suzuki

, Ts. Suzuki2

2, and students

, and students1

1

1 Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), Univ. of Tokyo 1 Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), Univ. of Tokyo 2 Frontier Research System for Global Change (FRSGC) 2 Frontier Research System for Global Change (FRSGC) 3 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) 3 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) 4 Research Organization for Information Science & Technology (RI 4 Research Organization for Information Science & Technology (RIST) ST)

SLIDE 2

What is What is “ “The K The K-

• 1 Project

1 Project ” ” ? ?

• Joint project : CCSR + NIES + FRSGC

Joint project : CCSR + NIES + FRSGC

• Funded by Ministry of Education, Culture,

Funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan Sports, Science and Technology of Japan

• First item of Research Revolution 2002

First item of Research Revolution 2002

• “

“K Kyousei yousei Project Dai Project Dai 1 1 Kadai Kadai” ” in Japanese in Japanese

• Develop a high

Develop a high-

• resolution climate models for

resolution climate models for the Earth Simulator the Earth Simulator

• Contribute to the IPCC AR4

Contribute to the IPCC AR4

• Understand dynamics of climate system

Understand dynamics of climate system

SLIDE 3

The Earth Simulator The Earth Simulator

CTL:Cartridge Tape Library system Magnetic Disk system I N Cabinets (65) PN Cabinets (320) Double Floor f or cables Power Supply system Seismic I solation system Air Conditioning system 50m (55yd) 65m (71yd) Electromagnetic Shield

SLIDE 4

The CCSR/ NI ES/ FRSGC Coupled The CCSR/ NI ES/ FRSGC Coupled Ocean Ocean-

• Atmosphere GCM f or the Earth

Atmosphere GCM f or the Earth Simulator: Simulator: MI ROC 3. 1 MI ROC 3. 1

• Atmosphere: Spectral T106 (120km) 56 levels

Atmosphere: Spectral T106 (120km) 56 levels

• Ocean & Ice: Grid 1/4

Ocean & Ice: Grid 1/4

• x1/6

x1/6

• 48 levels

48 levels

• Land: 1/2

Land: 1/2

• x1/2

x1/2

• MATSIRO SVATS model

MATSIRO SVATS model

• River: 1/2

River: 1/2

• x1/2

x1/2

• TRIP river routing model

TRIP river routing model

• Parallelized with MPI on 80PE for

Parallelized with MPI on 80PE for atmos

• atmos. and

. and 608PE for ocean (13% of whole ES) 608PE for ocean (13% of whole ES)

• Atmos
• Atmos. and ocean run simultaneously on separate

. and ocean run simultaneously on separate PE groups (MPMD coupling). PE groups (MPMD coupling). No flux correction applied No flux correction applied

SLIDE 5

Hi Hi-

• CGCM: a pilot 40

CGCM: a pilot 40-

• yr integration

yr integration

SLIDE 6

Mid Mid-

• CGCM*

CGCM* Hi Hi-

• CGCM

CGCM

Parameter adjustment

*T42L20+1

• x1.4
• L43

SLIDE 7

Hi Hi-

• CGCM

CGCM Obs Obs. .

SLIDE 8

Hi Hi-

• CGCM

CGCM (test) (test) Obs Obs. .

SLIDE 9

Hi Hi-

• CGCM

CGCM Obs Obs. .

SLIDE 10

Obs Obs. . Hi Hi-

• CGCM

CGCM

SLIDE 11

Hi Hi-

• CGCM

CGCM Mid Mid-

• CGCM

CGCM

CT02603b

SLIDE 12

Standard Deviation Standard Deviation

• f SST
• f SST

Obs Obs. . Hi Hi-

• CGCM

CGCM Mid Mid-

• CGCM

CGCM

SLIDE 13

Atlantic Atlantic Thermohaline Thermohaline Circulation Circulation

SLIDE 14

Atlantic Overturning Circulation Atlantic Overturning Circulation

OGCM OGCM Hi Hi-

• CGCM

CGCM

SLIDE 15

JJA precipitation JJA precipitation

Obs Obs. . Hi Hi-

• CGCM

CGCM Mid Mid-

• CGCM

CGCM

SLIDE 16

Looking at higher moment statistics? Looking at higher moment statistics?

• Verif ication of daily rainf all f requency over Japan

Verif ication of daily rainf all f requency over Japan -

• (120

(120-

• 140E, 30N

140E, 30N-

• 40N)

40N) CGCM results

SLIDE 17

Tropical Cyclone Tracks Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Observed Observed (872) (872) AGCM AGCM (674) (674) CGCM CGCM (228) (228)

SLIDE 18

The K The K-

• 1 Japan Project team is

1 Japan Project team is supposed to conduct supposed to conduct … …

• CMIP

CMIP-

• type run (1% per year increase in CO

type run (1% per year increase in CO2

2)

)

• 20th century climate reproduction

20th century climate reproduction

• SRES scenario runs

SRES scenario runs

• A1B and B1 scenarios with Hi

A1B and B1 scenarios with Hi-

• CGCM

CGCM

• All 6 marker scenarios with Mid

All 6 marker scenarios with Mid-

• CGCM

CGCM

• Stabilization runs

Stabilization runs

• Nominal 750

Nominal 750 ppmv ppmv stab. after 2100 (SRES A1B)

• stab. after 2100 (SRES A1B)
• Nominal 550

Nominal 550 ppmv ppmv stab. after 2100 (SRES B1)

• stab. after 2100 (SRES B1)
• Should we do non

Should we do non-

• CO

CO2

2 GHG scenario runs ???

GHG scenario runs ???

SLIDE 19

A pilot A pilot CMI P CMI P-

• type

type experiment experiment with with Hi Hi-

• CGCM

~ 4.7 ~ 4.7

• C/100yr

C/100yr

CGCM

SLIDE 20

SLIDE 21

20th century run 20th century run

• External forcing fields are completed

External forcing fields are completed

• Coupled with aerosol transport model

Coupled with aerosol transport model

• Include major four species of aerosols (sulfate,

Include major four species of aerosols (sulfate, carbonaceous, sea salt, and soil dust) carbonaceous, sea salt, and soil dust)

• Include 1st and 2nd kind indirect effect

Include 1st and 2nd kind indirect effect

• Preliminary runs are conducted by using the

Preliminary runs are conducted by using the middle resolution AGCM forced by middle resolution AGCM forced by HadISST HadISST & & HadICE HadICE

SLIDE 22

External External Forcings Forcings

• Natural

Natural forcings forcings

• Solar variability (Lean et al., 1995)

Solar variability (Lean et al., 1995)

• Volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere (Sato et al., 1993)

Volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere (Sato et al., 1993)

• Terpene

Terpene and continuous volcanic eruptions and continuous volcanic eruptions

• Anthropogenic

Anthropogenic forcings forcings

• Well

Well-

• mixed greenhouse gases

mixed greenhouse gases

• Stratospheric ozone depletion

Stratospheric ozone depletion

• Tropospheric

Tropospheric ozone increase

• zone increase
• Sulfate aerosols due to fossil fuel use

Sulfate aerosols due to fossil fuel use

• Carbonaceous aerosols due to fossil fuel combustion,

Carbonaceous aerosols due to fossil fuel combustion, agricultural waste burning, agricultural waste burning, fuelwood fuelwood consumption, and consumption, and forest fires forest fires

• Sea salt and soil dust aerosols are calculated from

Sea salt and soil dust aerosols are calculated from meteorological variables (wind speed, soil moisture, meteorological variables (wind speed, soil moisture, etc.) and are not considered as external forcing etc.) and are not considered as external forcing

SLIDE 23

Historical Emission of Historical Emission of Anthropogenic SO Anthropogenic SO2

2

• Country

Country-

• base historical inventory

base historical inventory ( (Lefohn Lefohn et al., 1999) et al., 1999)

• Gridded

Gridded with population distribution map with population distribution map

• btained from SEDAC and HYDE database
• btained from SEDAC and HYDE database

SLIDE 24

Historical Emission of Historical Emission of Anthropogenic Black Carbon Anthropogenic Black Carbon

• Country

Country-

• base historical inventory of

base historical inventory of

• UN Energy Statistics, IEA Energy Balances,

UN Energy Statistics, IEA Energy Balances, International Historical Statistics for fossil fuel International Historical Statistics for fossil fuel combustion combustion

• FAOSTAT, FAO Production Yearbook,

FAOSTAT, FAO Production Yearbook, International Historical Statistics for agricultural International Historical Statistics for agricultural waste burning waste burning

• FAOSTAT and a few population data for fuelwood

FAOSTAT and a few population data for fuelwood consumption consumption

• GEIA scaled by historical population numbers for

GEIA scaled by historical population numbers for forest fire forest fire

• Gridded

Gridded by population distribution by population distribution

SLIDE 25

Simulated Column Aerosol Burden Simulated Column Aerosol Burden

SLIDE 26

Simulated Column Aerosol Burden Simulated Column Aerosol Burden

SLIDE 27

Global & Annual Mean SAT Change Global & Annual Mean SAT Change

SLIDE 28

Linear temperature Linear temperature trend trend

(1910 (1910-

• 1945)

1945)

OBS OBS No INDIRECT No INDIRECT With INDIRECT With INDIRECT

SLIDE 29

Linear temperature Linear temperature trend trend

(1946 (1946-

• 1975)

1975)

OBS OBS No INDIRECT No INDIRECT With INDIRECT With INDIRECT

SLIDE 30

Linear temperature Linear temperature trend trend

(1976 (1976-

• 2000)

2000)

OBS OBS No INDIRECT No INDIRECT With INDIRECT With INDIRECT

SLIDE 31

Global & Annual Mean Global & Annual Mean Precip Precip. . Change Change

SLIDE 32

Global & Annual Mean Changes Global & Annual Mean Changes in Cloud in Cloud Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing

No I NDI RECT W i t h I NDI RECT

SLIDE 33

Cloud Top Ef f ective Cloud Radius Cloud Top Ef f ective Cloud Radius

SLIDE 34

Climate sensitivity Climate sensitivity

• Highly sensitive to cloud water phase diagnosis

Highly sensitive to cloud water phase diagnosis

• Further observation needed for evaluation

Further observation needed for evaluation

SLIDE 35

How should cloud wate r phase be de te r mine d？

. . . further observation needed for evaluation. Is climate sensitivity affected by modifying FLIQ (CCSRUK)?

• 40 -30 -20 -10 0 [℃]

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Temperature Empirical functions for cloud water phase diagnosis FLIQ = liq/(ice+liq) Del Genio et al.1996 land

• cean

ECMWF

(Mitchell et al.)

CCSR/NIES 5.7b UK Met.Office

SLIDE 36

Double d CO2 se nsitivity

0 10 20 30 [years] 15 16 17 18 19 [℃] Global-annual mean 2m temperature 20 14 ΔT2m=3.6℃ ΔT2m=4.7℃ UK CCSR Doubled CO2 sensitivity is 1.1oC lower for UK-type than CCSR.

SLIDE 37

Summary Summary

• Hi

Hi-

• & Mid

& Mid-

• CGCMs

CGCMs have been integrated successfully have been integrated successfully without flux adjustment. without flux adjustment.

• Resolution helps for resolving smaller

Resolution helps for resolving smaller-

• scale

scale disturbances. disturbances.

• Able to discuss changes in regional weather, including

Able to discuss changes in regional weather, including Baiu Baiu-

• frontal rainfall

frontal rainfall

• An improved version of the Hi

An improved version of the Hi-

• CGCM by the end of

CGCM by the end of FY2003 FY2003

• Introduction of an on

Introduction of an on-

• line aerosol transport; direct, 1

line aerosol transport; direct, 1st

st and

and 2 2nd

nd indirect effects

indirect effects

• Better organized tropical convective systems; typhoons,

Better organized tropical convective systems; typhoons, … … , , and ENSO and ENSO

• More control over climate sensitivity, high

More control over climate sensitivity, high-

• latitude oceanic

latitude oceanic eddies and NADW eddies and NADW

SLIDE 38

Thank you f or your Thank you f or your attention ! attention !