Development of Development of AIM/Impact [Country] [Country] - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Development of Development of AIM/Impact AIM/Impact [Country] [Country]

Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI

National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies

SLIDE 2

Items of today Items of today’ ’s presentation s presentation

• Background and objective

Background and objective

• Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]

Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]

• Introduction to the components of

Introduction to the components of AIM/Impact [Country] AIM/Impact [Country]

• Development schedule

Development schedule

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Background Background

• Increasing attention to national

Increasing attention to national-

• scale

scale impact studies. impact studies.

• AIACC (Assessment of the Impact of and

AIACC (Assessment of the Impact of and Adaptation to Climate Change Project) Adaptation to Climate Change Project)

• National Communication

National Communication

• Necessity of enhancing efficiency of the

Necessity of enhancing efficiency of the collaboration among AIM/Impact teams. collaboration among AIM/Impact teams.

• Suitability of AIM/Impact for assessment of

Suitability of AIM/Impact for assessment of regional impact. regional impact.

SLIDE 4

Objectives and features of the Objectives and features of the AIM/Impact [Country] AIM/Impact [Country]

• Package of models, tools and data for

Package of models, tools and data for scenario analysis of national scenario analysis of national-

• scale climate

scale climate change impact assessment. change impact assessment.

• Executable on PC

Executable on PC-

• Windows (free from

Windows (free from UNIX & GRASS skill) UNIX & GRASS skill)

• Bundled datasets for basic assessment.

Bundled datasets for basic assessment.

• Readily achievement of spatial analysis.

Readily achievement of spatial analysis.

• Detailed manual documents.

Detailed manual documents.

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Potential users of the model Potential users of the model

• Inside

Inside AIM project. AIM project.

• Model is improved by replacing parameters or using more

Model is improved by replacing parameters or using more detailed data. detailed data.

• Recommendation to use IDRISI

Recommendation to use IDRISI-

• GIS.

GIS.

• Source code and the latest databases are shared among the

Source code and the latest databases are shared among the teams. teams.

• Outside AIM project.

Outside AIM project.

• Researchers, governmental officers or others who want to

Researchers, governmental officers or others who want to assess future national impact of climate change. assess future national impact of climate change.

• Interactive user interface and ready

Interactive user interface and ready-

• made datasets are provided

made datasets are provided for instant achievement of scenario analysis. for instant achievement of scenario analysis.

• Spatial visualization is achieved with a plain spatial data view

Spatial visualization is achieved with a plain spatial data viewer er controlled from AIM/Impact [Country] interface. controlled from AIM/Impact [Country] interface.

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Framework of AIM/Impact [Country] Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]

G l

• b

a l G I S d a t a G I S d a t a t r i m m e d f

• r

n a t i

• n

a l s c a l e a s s e s s m e n t I n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l s GIS tool for trimming away ex-focused area GIS tool for spatial interpolation GIS tool for input data development (Scenario Creator) S

• c

i

• e

c

• n
• m

i c a n d G H G e m i s s i

• n

s c e n a r i

• s

O u t p u t G I S d a t a

• f

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l Penman-PET model Thornthwaite-PET model Potential crop productivity model Surface runoff model River discharge model Water demand model Malarial potential model Holdridge vegetation classification Koeppen vegetation classification Vegetation move possibility model M

• d

e l p a r a m e t e r s Interface tool for visualizing data on IDRIDI Interface tool for visualizing data on plain spatial data viewer GIS tool for sub- national aggregation

P R E F . I D N A T R E G P R E F V A L U E 3 9 2 1 1 J P N H

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k a i d

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k a i d

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2 3 9 2 2 1 J P N T

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u A

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i

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3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

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u A k i t a

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3 9 2 2 2 J P N T

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u I w a t e

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3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

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u A k i t a 2 3 9 2 2 5 J P N T

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u Y a m a g a t a 3 3 9 2 2 3 J P N T

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u M i y a g i

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3 3 9 2 4 1 J P N H

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u r i k u N i i g a t a

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3 9 2 2 6 J P N T

• h
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u F u k u s h i m a 8 3 9 2 4 3 J P N H

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u r i k u I s h i k a w a

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3 9 2 3 2 J P N K a n t

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• c

h i g i

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3 9 2 3 3 J P N K a n t

• G

u m m a 1 5 3 9 2 5 2 J P N C h u b u N a g a n

• 1

7 3 9 2 4 2 J P N H

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u r i k u T

• y

a m a 1 2 3 9 2 3 1 J P N K a n t

• I

b a r a k i

• 1

G I S d a t a f

• r

s u b

• n

a t i

• n

a l s p a t i a l a g g r e g a t i

• n

( 1 ) D e v e l

• p

m e n t

• f

i n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

m

• d

e l

( 2 ) I m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t ( 3 ) A n a l y s i s

• f

G I S d a t a a n d

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t p u t s

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Framework of AIM/Impact [Country] Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]

G l

• b

a l G I S d a t a G I S d a t a t r i m m e d f

• r

n a t i

• n

a l s c a l e a s s e s s m e n t I n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l s GIS tool for trimming away ex-focused area GIS tool for spatial interpolation GIS tool for input data development (Scenario Creator) S

• c

i

• e

c

• n
• m

i c a n d G H G e m i s s i

• n

s c e n a r i

• s

O u t p u t G I S d a t a

• f

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l Penman-PET model Thornthwaite-PET model Potential crop productivity model Surface runoff model River discharge model Water demand model Malarial potential model Holdridge vegetation classification Koeppen vegetation classification Vegetation move possibility model M

• d

e l p a r a m e t e r s Interface tool for visualizing data on IDRIDI Interface tool for visualizing data on plain spatial data viewer GIS tool for sub- national aggregation

P R E F . I D N A T R E G P R E F V A L U E 3 9 2 1 1 J P N H

• k

k a i d

• H
• k

k a i d

• 1

2 3 9 2 2 1 J P N T

• h
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u A

• m
• r

i

• 1

3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a

• 5

3 9 2 2 2 J P N T

• h
• k

u I w a t e

• 5

3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a 2 3 9 2 2 5 J P N T

• h
• k

u Y a m a g a t a 3 3 9 2 2 3 J P N T

• h
• k

u M i y a g i

• 1

3 3 9 2 4 1 J P N H

• k

u r i k u N i i g a t a

• 2

3 9 2 2 6 J P N T

• h
• k

u F u k u s h i m a 8 3 9 2 4 3 J P N H

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u r i k u I s h i k a w a

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3 9 2 3 2 J P N K a n t

• T
• c

h i g i

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3 9 2 3 3 J P N K a n t

• G

u m m a 1 5 3 9 2 5 2 J P N C h u b u N a g a n

• 1

7 3 9 2 4 2 J P N H

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u r i k u T

• y

a m a 1 2 3 9 2 3 1 J P N K a n t

• I

b a r a k i

• 1

G I S d a t a f

• r

s u b

• n

a t i

• n

a l s p a t i a l a g g r e g a t i

• n

( 1 ) D e v e l

• p

m e n t

• f

i n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

m

• d

e l

( 2 ) I m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t ( 3 ) A n a l y s i s

• f

G I S d a t a a n d

• u

t p u t s

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Development of input GIS data for Development of input GIS data for impact assessment models impact assessment models

G l

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a l G I S d a t a GIS tool for input data development (Scenario Creator) Observed climate (LINK) GCM results (IPCC-DDC) Soil (DSMW, FAO) Population (NGCIA) Cropland and Irrigated land GIS tool for trimming away ex-focused area GIS tool for spatial interpolation GHG emission scenarios Change of annual mean global temperature Scenarios of population change and other socio-economic factors

R e a d y

• m

a d e g l

• b

a l G I S d a t a O r i g i n a l l y i m p

• r

t e d g l

• b

a l G I S d a t a

Additional GCM results Observed climate from

• ther data sources

G I S d a t a t r i m m e d f

• r

n a t i

• n

a l s c a l e a s s e s s m e n t

O r i g i n a l l y i m p

• r

t e d G I S d a t a t r i m m e d a t f

• c

u s e d a r e a

Regional climate model results Region-specific soil data Population distribution with finer resolution I n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l s Monthly climate： Temperature, Rainfall, Cloudiness, Windspeed Socio-economic: Population distribution Cropland / Irrigated land Soil: Soil unit, soil texture, slope, soil phase, field capacity, elevation, albedo S

• c

i

• e

c

• n
• m

i c a n d G H G e m i s s i

• n

s c e n a r i

• s

A1 A2 B1 B2

Ready-made data bundled in the package Originally imported data Tools and Models

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Framework of AIM/Impact [Country] Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]

G l

• b

a l G I S d a t a G I S d a t a t r i m m e d f

• r

n a t i

• n

a l s c a l e a s s e s s m e n t I n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l s GIS tool for trimming away ex-focused area GIS tool for spatial interpolation GIS tool for input data development (Scenario Creator) S

• c

i

• e

c

• n
• m

i c a n d G H G e m i s s i

• n

s c e n a r i

• s

O u t p u t G I S d a t a

• f

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l Penman-PET model Thornthwaite-PET model Potential crop productivity model Surface runoff model River discharge model Water demand model Malarial potential model Holdridge vegetation classification Koeppen vegetation classification Vegetation move possibility model M

• d

e l p a r a m e t e r s Interface tool for visualizing data on IDRIDI Interface tool for visualizing data on plain spatial data viewer GIS tool for sub- national aggregation

P R E F . I D N A T R E G P R E F V A L U E 3 9 2 1 1 J P N H

• k

k a i d

• H
• k

k a i d

• 1

2 3 9 2 2 1 J P N T

• h
• k

u A

• m
• r

i

• 1

3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a

• 5

3 9 2 2 2 J P N T

• h
• k

u I w a t e

• 5

3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a 2 3 9 2 2 5 J P N T

• h
• k

u Y a m a g a t a 3 3 9 2 2 3 J P N T

• h
• k

u M i y a g i

• 1

3 3 9 2 4 1 J P N H

• k

u r i k u N i i g a t a

• 2

3 9 2 2 6 J P N T

• h
• k

u F u k u s h i m a 8 3 9 2 4 3 J P N H

• k

u r i k u I s h i k a w a

• 6

3 9 2 3 2 J P N K a n t

• T
• c

h i g i

• 7

3 9 2 3 3 J P N K a n t

• G

u m m a 1 5 3 9 2 5 2 J P N C h u b u N a g a n

• 1

7 3 9 2 4 2 J P N H

• k

u r i k u T

• y

a m a 1 2 3 9 2 3 1 J P N K a n t

• I

b a r a k i

• 1

G I S d a t a f

• r

s u b

• n

a t i

• n

a l s p a t i a l a g g r e g a t i

• n

( 1 ) D e v e l

• p

m e n t

• f

i n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

m

• d

e l

( 2 ) I m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t ( 3 ) A n a l y s i s

• f

G I S d a t a a n d

• u

t p u t s

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Impact assessment models Impact assessment models

O u t p u t G I S d a t a

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i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

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e l Penman-PET model Thornthwaite-PET model Potential crop productivity model Surface runoff model River discharge model Water demand model Malarial potential model Holdridge vegetation classification Koeppen vegetation classification Vegetation move possibility model Characteristics of crop growth Soil constraints on crop production Snow melt temperature Rate of water discharge in river Potential rate of vegetation move M

• d

e l p a r a m e t e r s I n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l s Monthly climate： Temperature, Rainfall, Cloudiness, Windspeed Socio-economic: Population distribution Cropland / Irrigated land Soil: Soil unit, soil texture, slope, soil phase, field capacity, elevation, albedo

R e a d y

• m

a d e O r i g i n a l l y i m p

• r

t e d

Penman-PET Thornthwaite-PET Potential crop productivity Surface runoff River discharge Water demand Malarial potential Holdridge vegetation classification Koeppen vegetation classification Vegetation move possibility

SLIDE 11

Framework of AIM/Impact [Country] Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]

G l

• b

a l G I S d a t a G I S d a t a t r i m m e d f

• r

n a t i

• n

a l s c a l e a s s e s s m e n t I n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l s GIS tool for trimming away ex-focused area GIS tool for spatial interpolation GIS tool for input data development (Scenario Creator) S

• c

i

• e

c

• n
• m

i c a n d G H G e m i s s i

• n

s c e n a r i

• s

O u t p u t G I S d a t a

• f

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l Penman-PET model Thornthwaite-PET model Potential crop productivity model Surface runoff model River discharge model Water demand model Malarial potential model Holdridge vegetation classification Koeppen vegetation classification Vegetation move possibility model M

• d

e l p a r a m e t e r s Interface tool for visualizing data on IDRIDI Interface tool for visualizing data on plain spatial data viewer GIS tool for sub- national aggregation

P R E F . I D N A T R E G P R E F V A L U E 3 9 2 1 1 J P N H

• k

k a i d

• H
• k

k a i d

• 1

2 3 9 2 2 1 J P N T

• h
• k

u A

• m
• r

i

• 1

3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a

• 5

3 9 2 2 2 J P N T

• h
• k

u I w a t e

• 5

3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a 2 3 9 2 2 5 J P N T

• h
• k

u Y a m a g a t a 3 3 9 2 2 3 J P N T

• h
• k

u M i y a g i

• 1

3 3 9 2 4 1 J P N H

• k

u r i k u N i i g a t a

• 2

3 9 2 2 6 J P N T

• h
• k

u F u k u s h i m a 8 3 9 2 4 3 J P N H

• k

u r i k u I s h i k a w a

• 6

3 9 2 3 2 J P N K a n t

• T
• c

h i g i

• 7

3 9 2 3 3 J P N K a n t

• G

u m m a 1 5 3 9 2 5 2 J P N C h u b u N a g a n

• 1

7 3 9 2 4 2 J P N H

• k

u r i k u T

• y

a m a 1 2 3 9 2 3 1 J P N K a n t

• I

b a r a k i

• 1

G I S d a t a f

• r

s u b

• n

a t i

• n

a l s p a t i a l a g g r e g a t i

• n

( 1 ) D e v e l

• p

m e n t

• f

i n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

m

• d

e l

( 2 ) I m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t ( 3 ) A n a l y s i s

• f

G I S d a t a a n d

• u

t p u t s

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Analysis of GIS data and outputs Analysis of GIS data and outputs

O t h e r G I S d a t a Interface tool for visualizing data on IDRIDI Interface tool for visualizing data on plain spatial data viewer GIS tool for sub-national aggregation G I S d a t a f

• r

s u b

• n

a t i

• n

a l s p a t i a l a g g r e g a t i

• n

GIS data of sub-national administrative boundary G l

• b

a l G I S d a t a G I S d a t a t r i m m e d f

• r

n a t i

• n

a l s c a l e a s s e s s m e n t I n p u t G I S d a t a f

• r

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l s I D R I S I P l a i n s p a t i a l d a t a v i e w e r

P R E F . I D N A T R E G P R E F V A L U E 3 9 2 1 1 0J P N H

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k a i d

• H
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k a i d

• 1

2 3 9 2 2 1 0J P N T

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u A

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• r

i

• 1

3 9 2 2 4 0J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a

• 5

3 9 2 2 2 0J P N T

• h
• k

u I w a t e

• 5

3 9 2 2 4 0J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a 2 3 9 2 2 5 0J P N T

• h
• k

u Y a m a g a t a 3 3 9 2 2 3 0J P N T

• h
• k

u M i y a g i

• 1

3 3 9 2 4 1 0J P N H

• k

u r i k u N i i g a t a

• 2

3 9 2 2 6 0J P N T

• h
• k

u F u k u s h i m a 8 3 9 2 4 3 0J P N H

• k

u r i k u I s h i k a w a

• 6

3 9 2 3 2 0J P N K a n t

• T
• c

h i g i

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3 9 2 3 3 0J P N K a n t

• G

u m m a 1 5 3 9 2 5 2 0J P N C h u b u N a g a n

• 1

7 3 9 2 4 2 0J P N H

• k

u r i k u T

• y

a m a 1 2 3 9 2 3 1 0J P N K a n t

• I

b a r a k i

• 1

A g g r e g a t i

• n

t

• s

u b

• n

a t i

• n

a l l e v e l Penman-PET Thornthwaite-PET Potential crop productivity Surface runoff River discharge Water demand Malarial potential Holdridge vegetation classification Koeppen vegetation classification Vegetation move possibility O u t p u t G I S d a t a

• f

i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t m

• d

e l

SLIDE 13

Analysis of GIS data and outputs Analysis of GIS data and outputs

• Visualization

Visualization -

• For IDRISI user

For IDRISI user

• GIS data in AIM/Impact [Local] will

GIS data in AIM/Impact [Local] will have genuine IDRISI format, and have genuine IDRISI format, and AIM/Impact [country] visualize the AIM/Impact [country] visualize the data with starting up IDRISI data with starting up IDRISI through IDRISI through IDRISI-

• API functions.

API functions.

• Full IDRISI functions can be used

Full IDRISI functions can be used to process and analyze the GIS to process and analyze the GIS data in AIM/Impact [Local]. data in AIM/Impact [Local].

• Restriction: IDRISI costs almost

Restriction: IDRISI costs almost US$1000 and cannot be included US$1000 and cannot be included in the AIM/Impact in the AIM/Impact-

• Country CD

Country CD-

• ROM.

ROM.

• For Non IDRISI user

For Non IDRISI user

• Plain spatial data viewer software

Plain spatial data viewer software (COMPAC FORTRAN Array (COMPAC FORTRAN Array Visualizer Visualizer) is included in the ) is included in the package, and user can see and package, and user can see and print out the results visually. print out the results visually.

SLIDE 14

Analysis of GIS data and outputs Analysis of GIS data and outputs

• Regional aggregation

Regional aggregation -

• Numerical grasp of the

Numerical grasp of the result with representative result with representative values is also important values is also important and useful. and useful.

• Input GIS data and

Input GIS data and assessed results of assessed results of impacts are aggregated impacts are aggregated spatially and mean values spatially and mean values for sub for sub-

• national divisions

national divisions are tabulated. are tabulated.

• Ready

Ready-

• made GIS data of

made GIS data of sub sub-

• national divisions

national divisions incorporated in the incorporated in the package. package.

P R E F . I D N A T R E G P R E F V A L U E 3 9 2 1 1 J P N H

• k

k a i d

• H
• k

k a i d

• 1

2 3 9 2 2 1 J P N T

• h
• k

u A

• m
• r

i

• 1

3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a

• 5

3 9 2 2 2 J P N T

• h
• k

u I w a t e

• 5

3 9 2 2 4 J P N T

• h
• k

u A k i t a 2 3 9 2 2 5 J P N T

• h
• k

u Y a m a g a t a 3 3 9 2 2 3 J P N T

• h
• k

u M i y a g i

• 1

3 3 9 2 4 1 J P N H

• k

u r i k u N i i g a t a

• 2

3 9 2 2 6 J P N T

• h
• k

u F u k u s h i m a 8 3 9 2 4 3 J P N H

• k

u r i k u I s h i k a w a

• 6

3 9 2 3 2 J P N K a n t

• T
• c

h i g i

• 7

3 9 2 3 3 J P N K a n t

• G

u m m a 1 5 3 9 2 5 2 J P N C h u b u N a g a n

• 1

7 3 9 2 4 2 J P N H

• k

u r i k u T

• y

a m a 1 2 3 9 2 3 1 J P N K a n t

• I

b a r a k i

• 1

SLIDE 15

Integrated user interface of Integrated user interface of AIM/Impact AIM/Impact-

• country

country

• User

User-

• friendly MS Visual

friendly MS Visual Basic form similar to the Basic form similar to the AIM AIM-

• Trend.

Trend.

• The interface is used to

The interface is used to complete a configuration complete a configuration file controlling data file controlling data management tools, management tools, models, visualization tool. models, visualization tool.

• Configuration file can be

Configuration file can be edited manually, which edited manually, which enables complicated enables complicated model simulation with model simulation with batch programming by batch programming by expert users. expert users.

I n t e g r a t e d u s e r i n t e r f a c e C

• n

f i g u r a t i

• n

f i l e f

• r

c

• n

t r

• l

l i n g t

• l

s a n d m

• d

e l s Manual writing of configuration file GIS tool for trimming away ex-focused area GIS tool for spatial interpolation GIS tool for input data development (Scenario Creator) Penman-PET model Thornthwaite-PET model Potential crop productivity model Surface runoff model River discharge model Water demand model Malarial potential model Holdridge vegetation classification Koeppen vegetation classification Vegetation move possibility model Interface tool for visualizing data on IDRIDI Interface tool for visualizing data on plain spatial data viewer GIS tool for sub-national aggregation

SLIDE 16

Development schedule Development schedule

• Draft version:

Draft version: September 2002. September 2002.

• First distribution:

First distribution: End of this year. End of this year.

• Presentation of preliminary assessments using

Presentation of preliminary assessments using AIM/Impact [Country] is expected at the AIM Workshop AIM/Impact [Country] is expected at the AIM Workshop in March 2003. in March 2003.

• Public distribution:

Public distribution: ??? ???

SLIDE 17

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