DESIGNING FUTURE SCENARIOS Approaches and Positioning of Scenario - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DESIGNING FUTURE SCENARIOS

Approaches and Positioning of Scenario Building into the Design Process

Danila Zindato

• Dept. of Design | Politecnico di Milano

Turku | 2015.06.11

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES

(Irmark O., 2013)

Future Studies analyze changes in socio-technological perspective to help us shape our images of the future. Therefore, we may look at Future Studies to understand the change in design and to draw the future perspectives for design.

Scenarios Trends Analysis Mind maps Matrix Stories … Future studies are seen as an activity more

• riented to macroscale

that occurs in advance of actual outcomes. Design is seen as the manipulation of visual or tangible aspects of physical matter at the point of output.

Design Discipline Future Studies Common tools DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES

(Celi M., 2013)

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | focus What is the target of this study? . Identify the main differencies between design and future studies in the use of future scenarios . Identify the position of the scenarios use within a design process Design Future Studies Focus: Scenario as a tool (from a designer’s point of view)

SCENARIO

vision motivation proposal

how the world will be if this scenario happen? how we can implement this vision? why this scenarios is relevant?

Masini B.E. (1973), Why future studies?, Grey Seal, London

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | architecture of scenarios

Case studies analysis

Common architecture but different approaches? DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | case studies How it is possible to identify them?

• 4. Lancia Dialogos (D)
• 5. Philips Food Probes (D)
• 6. Indesit Eldomat (D)

2 .Barilla Food Trends 2030 (FS)

• 1. GBN Hardware Retailing (FS)
• 3. GBN Scenarios for Fiat (FS)

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | case studies

Main points analysed:

• 1. Scale

macroscale / microscale

• 2. Time horizon

long time / short time

• 3. Materialization

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | case studies

Year: 2006 Target: definition of possible scenarios for the hardware industry to prioritize strategic options Time horizon: 10-15 years Scale: macro Scenarios focused on an industry sector evolution Output / kind of materialization: 4 different scenarios (narrated by polarity map, written stories + evocative img) «Safety Rules» based on moderate economic growth «Mi casa en MI casa» focused on tech and global competition «Feng Shui» focused on technology slow down «Scared Simple» based on economic depression

GBN Hardware Retailing

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | case studies Year: 2012 Target: definition of a possible scenario for food in 2030 Time horizon: 20 years Scale: macro trends analysis about food in a global way Output / kind of materialization: Trends evolution and implication (social food / accessible food / natural food / fusion food / food at home and out ) materialized through infographic and written report for communication and dissemination Barilla Food Trends 2030

GBN Scenarios for Fiat DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | case studies

Year: 1995 Target: definition of possible scenarios into the transportation sector for the 2000 Time horizon: 5 years Scale: macro Scenarios focused on economics and socio-technological aspects and on the evolution of a sector Output / kind of materialization: 3 different scenarios (narrated by written stories) «Me and my group» focused on the social differences «Me and my link» focused on technologies «Me and my life» focused on the quality of life

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | case studies

Year: 1998 Target: design of a new dream car for Fiat Lancia (based on the previous GBN Scenarios for Fiat) Time horizon: 1-3 years Scale: micro scenario focused on the trajectories

• f innovation for designing a new car

Output / kind of materialization: development of a prototype

Lancia Dialogos Lancia Dialogos

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | case studies

Year: 2009 Target: identify a futures scenarios for food changes (and to design a set of products related to the future changes) Time horizon: 10 years Scale: from macro to micro from the trend analysis to a defined product Output / kind of materialization: Lo-fi prototypes

Philips Food Probes

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | case studies DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | case studies

Year: 2011 Target: identify a possible scenario related to new possible materials in the kitchen sector Time horizon: 1 years Scale: micro The scenarios are used to to design a set of product Output / kind of materialization: Trends maps and moodboard

Indesit Eldomat

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | conclusion

Conclusions extracted by the case studies:

• 1. SCALE

/ macroscale The FS cases are generally more focused on a macroscale in terms of trend analysis and prevision related to a specific sector (generally are used socioeconomic analysis and technology scouting). > EXPLORING Design can be focused on a macroscale, especially in the first part of a design process (problem setting phase) to define a strategic plan. > EXPLORING / microscale Design is generally focused on a microscale to create new products or services. > FOCUSING

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | conclusion

Conclusions extracted by the case studies:

• 2. TIME HORIZON

/ long term The FS scenarios ranging a temporal horizon from 5/10 years and up. Design scenarios have a long temporal horizon just in terms

• f trend analysis and strategic research, not in terms of

product and service design. / short term Design is focused on a short temporal horizon (1-3 years) for product and service design (in the problem solving phases of a design process)

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | conclusion

Conclusions extracted by the case studies:

• 3. OUTPUTS MATERIALIZATION

/ future studies . Different possible scenarios (three or more) materialized through written stories, maps, etc. / design . Feasible solutions materialized through sketching, prototypes, mapping, etc (visual or functional way)

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | components SCENARIO macroscale alternatives

• f futures

storytelling microscale feasible alternatives design solutions FUTURE STUDIES DESIGN EXPLORATION FOCALIZATION

DESIGN and FUTURE STUDIES | conclusion | a process model interpretative model of a design process Process optimization (tools and approaches) / interaction definition

Thank you.

Contacts: danila.zindato@polimi.it danilazindato@designinnovation.net