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Trees and Water: Exploring Future Scenarios Trees and Water: Exploring Future Scenarios for the San Jose Watershed under Climate Change Change

H A R R Y N E LS O N

U N I VE R S I T Y O F BR I T I S H CO L U M BI A U N I VE R S I T Y O F BR I T I S H CO L U M BI A A D V I S O R Y G R O U P P R E S E N T A T I O N W I L L I A M S L A K E , U B C 2 3 M A R C H , 2 0 12

Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012

RAC San Jose Watershed

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Slide 1 n1 need to update

n.hotte, 22/02/2012

Introduction

 NRCan Regional Adaptation

Collaborative (RAC)

 British Columbia RAC (BC RAC)

Program Preparing for Climate Program, Preparing for Climate Change: Securing B.C.’s Water Future

 One of 21 projects across the province

Photo credit: Cathy Koot (2010)

Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012

RAC San Jose Watershed Photo credit: Cathy Koot (2010)

Advancing Adaptation g p

 Recognize that we’ve always

been adapting

 Difference in that we are  Difference in that we are

anticipating possible futures and being proactive

 In order to do this we need

to understand local impacts

 We can utilize what we do

We can utilize what we do know to do this

RAC San Jose Watershed

Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012

Issues affecting the Watershed g

Three interacting phenomena are occurring that will have cumulative impacts on forest resources and the water supply:

1.

Mountain pine beetle

2.

Change in fire regim es

3.

Clim ate change

RAC San Jose Watershed

Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012

Project Goals

 Project climate change impacts on services and values

j g p from forest resources.

 Evaluate potential effects of forest management

strategies at the watershed level and how they could address water concerns.

 Facilitate discussions among decision makers re:

watershed values, vulnerabilities, and management i

• ptions.

 Support planning within a long-term sustainability

t t

Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012

RAC San Jose Watershed

strategy.

Future Clim ate Scenarios

How do these projections translate into forest and water im pacts? water im pacts?

4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Tem perature º C) 2020s 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% in Seasonal itation (%) 2020s

Changes in temperature and precipitation

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Change in T (º 2020s 2050s 2080s

• 40%
• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

Change i Precipi 2050s 2080s

p p under low climate change.

4 0 5.0 6.0 7.0 perature 0% 10% 20% 30% Seasonal ion (%)

Changes in temperature and

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Change in Tem p (º C) 2020s 2050s 2080s

• 40%
• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% Change in S Precipitati 2020s 2050s 2080s

p precipitation under high climate change.

RAC San Jose Watershed

The Role of Modelling

 It allows us to “fast forward” through time and

g simulate under different scenarios future outcomes

2009 2050

Modelling suite

A.K.A.

Our “tim e m achine”

RAC San Jose Watershed

Harry Nelson 20 March, 2012

Workshop Goals

 Report out on results

p

 Discuss implications  Identify next steps

y p

Harry Nelson 23 March, 2012

RAC San Jose Watershed