Creating Futures: Creating Futures: Tools for Tools for Integrated Integrated Christchurch Planning Planning Wellington Beat Huser Environment Waikato New Zealand Auckland Hamilton - Waikato International Planning Conference, Christchurch (20 - 23 April, 2010)
“The future is not some place we are going to, it is a place we are creating.” (Peter Ellyard)
Our Footprint
Stretching our Planet … 3 more planets would be needed if everyone lived like most New Zealanders currently do
What we will cover New Zealand’s governance structure Creating Futures project - Regional Scenarios - WISE (Waikato Integrated Scenario Explorer) – Spatial Model - Case studies Lessons learnt & future directions Other regions National - NZ Inc Waikato Region Australia
The Structure of Government Central Government Regional Councils Unitary Councils Combined Regional and City/District City District Councils Councils Councils Community
Key Differences – Regional Councils and District/City Councils Regional Councils • Natural boundary based on watersheds • Core business - natural resource management air, land, water, coast District / City Councils • Boundary based on community of interest • Core business - land use, economic development, service delivery water supply, sewerage, refuse collection, roading, parks
Purpose of local government (LGA 2002) To promote the social, economic, environmental and cultural wellbeing of communities , in the present and for the future (known as the 4 well-beings).
Environmental Cultural WELL-BEINGS Economic Social
Why ‘New’ Planning Tools? INTEGRATION Strategic partnerships (multi-disciplinary) Environment Linking the four well-beings Society LONG TERM planning and enhanced strategic focus Economy LINKING Science to Policy informed decision-making Culture evidence-based
Creating Futures Project (2006 – 2010) Aim Develop and apply planning and communication tools to make informed choices for the future
Creating Futures project Auckland Hamilton Tools for Integrated Planning Waikato Taupo Region Wellington Christchurch
Waikato Region - what we manage • 25,000 km 2 total area • 400,000 people (10% of NZ) • $10 Billion GDP (10% of NZ) • 1,150 km coastline • Longest river, largest lake • $ 6 Billion Agriculture Export
Change in Vegetation Cover – last 170 years 1840 Today Hamilton Hamilton Taupo Taupo Lake Lake Taupo Taupo Key Native forest, scrub and tussock
Land Use - now 56% pastoral farming 12% plantation forestry 28% indigenous vegetation and wetlands < 1% horticulture < 1% urban uses Waikato in 2050
Step 2: Step 1: Source: Dr Daniel Rutledge, LCR 2008 Understand Characterize Step 5: the past the present Explore possible futures Scenarios Step 3: Understand past changes & trends Step 4: Identify key drivers & trends and “model” New Zealand New Zealand Land Cover Land Cover possible LCDB2 Pre-human (2001/2) future Estimate (LENZ) scenarios
What We Want to Achieve Planning tools that inform: Strategic planning (Long Term Plans) Statutory plans & policies (eg. RPS; RP/DP) Non-statutory planning & community outcomes processes Economic development strategies & smart growth
Project Structure Advisory Group Project Leader Central and Local Government Dr Beat Huser OBJECTIVE 1: OBJECTIVE 2: Spatial decision support Improved communication & deliberation tools system (WISE) NZ$1.5M
Objective 1 - Qualitative Tools • Scenario planning • Deliberation processes We can’t predict the future …. The ‘futures landscape’ is one of shifting sands Source: MSD
… different types of futures Most Useful for Strategic Planning Possible Time Now Plausible Scenarios = plausible stories about the future Probable Preferable
Waikato Scenarios profit Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Crowded House Sleeping In how we measure wealth Scenario 4 Scenario 3 Science Society Nature Counts mine maintain natural capital people www.creatingfutures.org.nz
30% Population Increase North of Taupo by 2026 679,100 Source: Statistics NZ 2006
Coromandel: Residents – 25,000 Summer peak – 150,000
Expected Future The path between the State Actual present and the future is Future Terrorist attack not clear and direct State Technology Development Energy ‘Failure’ of a Shock Pacific nation Present Economic downturn State Free trade with China Source: MSD
Key Drivers New Zealand World Population Climate Change Lifestyles Population Economy Market changes Housing Globalisation Energy Waikato Region Land use Auckland Economy Governance
Whitianga in 1950s
Now - 2007
Future - 2030
Future - in 500 years … What people value: Whitianga 2500? “The natural environment and lifestyle the Coromandel offers”
Waikato Scenarios profit Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Crowded House Sleeping In how we measure wealth Scenario 4 Scenario 3 Science Society Nature Counts mine maintain natural capital people www.creatingfutures.org.nz
Uncertainty / Importance Grid Very certain Very Lower important importance Danger zone critical uncertainties Very uncertain
‘GDP’ Scenario 1 - Crowded House • New Zealand has more people than expected (profit) • Less money from government Scenario 1 Crowded House Natural ‘mine’ ‘maintain’ Capital (resources) How we measure ‘wealth’ in Waikato ‘GPI’ (people)
Crowded House Influx of 35 hour people work week Climate Fiscal refugees pressures High exacerbated energy costs Global Less Economic warming investment centres shift Housing affordability Economic issues Fewer difficulties markets Multi- Agriculture culturalism intensifies abandoned
Why did we Develop Scenarios • Enhance collective understanding of issues shaping the future • Learning tool • Inform decision-making How we used the scenarios Input into regional policy and strategies (LTP/RPS) Guide the design and development of the Waikato Model (WISE) – Project Objective 2
Deliberation – informing decisions Improved deliberation processes for multi- Deliberation Strategies / Matrix Scenarios stakeholder process Diagnose stakeholder interests Stakeholders and specify issues Analyse underlying system and identify indicators Values / Evaluate different scenarios Indicators Deliberate on information, e.g. from simulations Revisit issues, assumptions and indicators
Objective 2 • Development of a dynamic, integrated and spatial Decision Support System to support long-term, integrated planning (WISE)
What is WISE? • Stand-alone software application • System of interacting models
Dynamic and Spatial Modelling Source: RIKS 2006 Model library: Basic Framework Land use local level Regional interaction Transport Population (Age cohort) Geonamica Plant growth Product Climate WISE Hydrology Input – Output (Economy-Environment)
NZ & WISE Beta External Drivers Climate Change Scenarios World External Sources NIWA System Design Region Hydrology Waikato Region Dynamic Economy- NIWA Environment Model NZCEE Water Quality NIWA District Demography Zoning UoW-PSC District Councils Local Land Use RIKS/LCR/EW SUITABILITY Biodiversity ACCESSIBILITY Spatial Indicators LCR LOCAL INFLUENCE GEONAMICA INTEGRATION - LCR Framework - RIKS LEAD
WISE is an Integrated Spatial Decision Support System An ISDSS: Helps to explore “wicked” or unstructured problems Integrates society, economy, and environment (systems approach) Identifies links & feedbacks Sets limits explicitly (e.g., only so much land, water, soil) Demonstrate importance of “where” in addition to “what” and “how much” Uncert rtainty Unstructured issues are unstruc ructure red weakly ly st struc ructure red re rela lativ ive to characterised by: probl pr blem pr probl blem the – Multiple actors knowle ledg dge for so solv lvin ing – Multiple values & views the pr probl blem – Multiple outcomes struc ructure red weakly ly st struc ructure red possible probl pr blem pr probl blem – High uncertainty Confli licting vie iews on values, s, goals ls and measure res re rela lativ ive to the so solutio ion of the pr probl blem After van Delden 2000
Systems Approach Goods Society Economy Labour Wastes Stewardship Services Resources Environment Flows Stocks Spatially-Explicit Dynamic
Multi-scale Local Region District (200 x 200 m cells)
Waikato in 2050 – what/if? (based on WISE Prototype) Dairy Expansion Land for dairying increases ~4% annually Land Use Abandoned Bare Ground Broad-Acre Forestry Infrastructure Mine Indigenous Vegetation Pastoral - Dairy Pastoral - Other Other Primary Residential Water Wetland Utilities Services Manufacturing Construction
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